# FiveThirtyEight's election forecast is out! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 12, 2020, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890 "2020-08-12T15:01:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2020, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/102 "2020-10-07T19:07:09Z")
And Trump just hit, for the first time, a 16% chance of victory. It’s going down by a percentage point every day or two now, and if it keeps up, by election day he’ll have like a -3% chance of victory. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2020, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/103 "2020-10-07T19:57:43Z")
Rasmussen today - Rasmussen! - has Biden +12 ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2020, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/105 "2020-10-07T21:59:07Z")
> [@squeegee](#): > > Rasmussen today - Rasmussen! - has Biden +12 Yeah, Rasmussen polling had Biden pulling away for three weeks now. He was +8 after the debate. On the whole, Biden hasn’t polled this high (+9.5) since the second week of July. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2020, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/106 "2020-10-07T22:22:17Z")
I’m hopeful but the sting of 2016 still haunts me. Even with all the bad news Trump still has a one-in-eight chance of winning. I know why 538 talks in percentages but that still is too high to make me comfortable. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2020, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/107 "2020-10-07T22:24:02Z")
Biden has three things going for him: He’s not Trump, nor a Clinton, nor a woman. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2020, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/108 "2020-10-07T22:34:59Z")
When is the last times polls had a candidate this far ahead at this point in the race? I still fear Biden winning, but Trump sending Republican electors to compete with the Democratic ones. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/109 "2020-10-08T02:41:37Z")
Edit: Whoops, wrong thread. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/110 "2020-10-08T03:41:11Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > When is the last times polls had a candidate this far ahead at this point in the race? [This article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/06/7-key-facts-about-bidens-big-lead-over-trump/) has some interesting nuggets about Biden’s polling lead. Sample: > Biden’s 16-point lead in the CNN poll is the most lopsided October poll we’ve seen in any election in the 21st century. > Biden’s average share of the vote is 51.3 percent in the RCP average, which no candidate in the 21st century has matched in October of an election year. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/111 "2020-10-08T03:58:51Z")
From that article: > And yet, for very understandable reasons, Democrats are taking nothing for granted. The lessons of 2016 and the unpredictability of the first covid-19 election have left them virtually incapable of believing the race is won until it’s actually won. We need to keep that attitude. I still think the Democrats lost 2016 because not enough had it then. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/112 "2020-10-08T05:40:50Z")
> [@Nonsuch](#): > > in any election in the 21st century. > [@](#): > > no candidate in the 21st century What overwrought nonsense prose. There have been 5 presidential elections this century. Hardly a good sampling for such triumphalism. Keep it in your pants, Wapo. Trump is the underdog. He can still win. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 8:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/113 "2020-10-08T08:52:10Z")
Four. This is the fifth. That said, your point is well-taken. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 11:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/114 "2020-10-08T11:47:33Z")
> [@squeegee](#): > > What overwrought nonsense prose. Agreed. I had to re-read it to see if I understood it. Can’t they go back further? I’m wondering if Biden’s October average-poll lead is the biggest since…1970, for example. 50 years. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 11:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/115 "2020-10-08T11:49:46Z")
> [@squeegee](#): > > Trump is the underdog. He can still win. I still fear the scenario I keep reading about. I need someone to talk me off the edge. 1. Trump loses. 2. He contacts the Republican State legislatures around the country and gets them to send Republican electors to compete with the Democratic ones. 3. It goes to the Supreme court who decide in Trumps favor OR it goes to congress, which votes once per state(and wins because Repubs sort of control it in that type of vote). I think Trump would do it and sadly, I don’t think Americans would be able to or be willing to stop it. Can’t he just lose and stay in? ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/116 "2020-10-08T12:28:58Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > Four. This is the fifth. > > That said, your point is well-taken. What century was 2000 in again? 😜 ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/117 "2020-10-08T12:30:44Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Agreed. I had to re-read it to see if I understood it. Can’t they go back further? I’m wondering if Biden’s October average-poll lead is the biggest since…1970, for example. 50 years. Without actually researching the question, my guess is that Reagan in 1984 probably had leads this large. Maybe Clinton in 1996? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/118 "2020-10-08T12:46:39Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Without actually researching the question, my guess is that Reagan in 1984 probably had leads this large. Maybe Clinton in 1996? Bush in 1988 was well ahead, too, but what’s the standard here? Is it ONE poll? It’d be hard to hunt down all the polls from way back then. OR a polling average? Did anyone even do that back then? At any rate, yeah, Biden is well ahead, but the electoral college tilt is huge - 3 points at least - and the cheating will be unprecedented. His effective lead is really more like 2, 3 points. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/119 "2020-10-08T12:49:28Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > What century was 2000 in again? [The 20th.](https://www.google.com/search?q=What+century+was+2000+in&rlz=1CAJCUZ_enUS840&oq=What+century+was+2000+in&aqs=chrome..69i57&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8) ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/120 "2020-10-08T12:51:58Z")
Unless you think it was in the 21st. “Century” means “a hundred years.” The period from 1843 to 1942, inclusive, was a century, too. Generally speaking people have decided to define the sequential centuries by the second digit of the year number, not by counting from a year zero. So, 2000 was also in the 21st century. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/121 "2020-10-08T12:54:37Z")
I personally choose to cut the 1st century short a year and start the 2nd in 100 CE, and so on. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/122 "2020-10-08T12:57:07Z")
I’m with you. I personally lump the year 2000 into the 21st C in my mind - but pedantically, it’s the final year of the 20th. At the very least, we probably shouldn’t try to win a zinger on someone by suggesting that 2000 wasn’t in the 20th century. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=7)