# FiveThirtyEight's election forecast is out! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 12, 2020, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890 "2020-08-12T15:01:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/123 "2020-10-08T14:01:13Z")
Biden now at +9.8; he’s _never_ been that far ahead before! ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/124 "2020-10-08T14:05:38Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Unless you think it was in the 21st. “Century” means “a hundred years.” The period from 1843 to 1942, inclusive, was a century, too. Generally speaking people have decided to define the sequential centuries by the second digit of the year number, not by counting from a year zero. So, 2000 was also in the 21st century. Not according to Cecil. [https://www.straightdope.com/21341290/the-millennium-approacheth-will-it-start-jan-1-2000-or-jan-1-2001](https://www.straightdope.com/21341290/the-millennium-approacheth-will-it-start-jan-1-2000-or-jan-1-2001) ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Winston\_OBoogie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.winston_oboogie/32/2945_2.png) [@Dr.Winston\_OBoogie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Winston_OBoogie)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/125 "2020-10-08T14:10:04Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > I still fear the scenario I keep reading about. I need someone to talk me off the edge. > > 1. Trump loses. > 2. He contacts the Republican State legislatures around the country and gets them to send Republican electors to compete with the Democratic ones. > 3. It goes to the Supreme court who decide in Trumps favor OR it goes to congress, which votes once per state(and wins because Repubs sort of control it in that type of vote). The weak point here is item 2. This assumes that there are enough states where Biden wins the popular vote, but the state government cares more about THIS ELECTION than they do about their political future. If Biden wins the popular vote in a state, then obviously the state electorate cares more about the individual than party. If Governor AND Attorney General (or whomever declares vote totals and selects electors) go AGAINST the popular vote in their state, they’re putting a target on their back. Florida is a purple state. If the people vote for Biden and the state sends EC for Trump, DeSantis will be voted out. Hell, I’d get behind impeachment / recall. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/126 "2020-10-08T14:17:46Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Bush in 1988 was well ahead, too, but what’s the standard here? Is it ONE poll? It’d be hard to hunt down all the polls from way back then. OR a polling average? Did anyone even do that back then? I was thinking polling average. Nate Silver has said polls and the technology and understanding behind them have improved, but I’d love to compare 2020 to polling averages at this point going back as far as they can. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/127 "2020-10-08T19:21:04Z")
> [@Skywatcher](#): > > Not according to Cecil. He’s wrong, and I’m right. I’m smarter. Whaddya gonna do, huh? But the thing is, as you can see in his last paragraph, he’s agreeing with me anyway. It’s whatever people decide it is. ---
**Author:** ![YamatoTwinkie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/cc9497/32.png) [@YamatoTwinkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YamatoTwinkie)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/128 "2020-10-08T19:39:42Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > I was thinking polling average. Nate Silver has said polls and the technology and understanding behind them have improved, but I’d love to compare 2020 to polling averages at this point going back as far as they can. Here’s a 538 article from August that gives polling data at the time of the convention going back to 1968: > **[No Sitting President Was As Far Behind As Trump Going Into The Conventions](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-sitting-president-was-as-far-behind-as-trump-going-into-the-conventions/)** > > Welcome to the FiveThirtyEight Election Update for Monday, August 24! As of 5 p.m. on Sunday, Joe Biden had a 73 in 100 chance of winning the 2020 presidential … There’s also a link to their raw data here: > > > //github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/polls ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/129 "2020-10-08T19:48:01Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > I still fear the scenario I keep reading about. I need someone to talk me off the edge. > > 1. Trump loses. > 2. He contacts the Republican State legislatures around the country and gets them to send Republican electors to compete with the Democratic ones. > 3. It goes to the Supreme court who decide in Trumps favor OR it goes to congress, which votes once per state(and wins because Repubs sort of control it in that type of vote). > > I think Trump would do it and sadly, I don’t think Americans would be able to or be willing to stop it. > > Can’t he just lose and stay in? This scenario is essentially the end of democracy in the U.S., and nobody is naive enough to think that any dubious legal technicality implies otherwise. Do you really think that every Republican state legislature, every right wing Supreme Court justice, every Republican in Congress - _all_ of these people who would be required to cooperate with very few defectors, all of them are so invested in the reelection of this one individual that they will go down the path of overtly ending democracy in this country? ---
**Author:** ![robby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robby/32/11048_2.png) [@robby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robby)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/130 "2020-10-08T20:08:34Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > This scenario is essentially the end of democracy in the U.S., and nobody is naive enough to think that any dubious legal technicality implies otherwise. Do you really think that every Republican state legislature, every right wing Supreme Court justice, every Republican in Congress - _all_ of these people who would be required to cooperate with very few defectors, all of them are so invested in the reelection of this one individual that they will go down the path of overtly ending democracy in this country? With the fleeting exception of John McCain (RIP) and Mitt Romney, I have given up on depending on Republicans to do the right thing for the country. I was disabused of my last vestiges of hope that Republicans would do the right thing in that sham of an impeachment trial in which no witnesses were called on by the Senate, which was quickly followed by mass firings of administration officials and IGs deemed insufficiently loyal to the President with no pushback from Congress. I think that virtually all Republicans (who are now indistinguishable from a cult) would be happily complicit in any attempt to subvert democracy, but of course they will blatantly lie and deny that they are doing this the whole time they are doing it. For an example of this, watch what they are doing with legal challenges to the Affordable Care Act while simultaneously claiming they support those with pre-existing conditions. It’s basically a policy of disinformation. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/131 "2020-10-08T20:10:20Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > This scenario is essentially the end of democracy in the U.S., and nobody is naive enough to think that any dubious legal technicality implies otherwise. Do you really think that every Republican state legislature, every right wing Supreme Court justice, every Republican in Congress - _all_ of these people who would be required to cooperate with very few defectors, all of them are so invested in the reelection of this one individual that they will go down the path of overtly ending democracy in this country? I think it’s possible. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/132 "2020-10-08T20:22:22Z")
I’m not seeing any evidence to the contrary. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/133 "2020-10-08T20:24:32Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > I think it’s possible… Yeah, it wasn’t an entirely rhetorical question. It’s much less likely (and probably not even feasible with 100% Republican compliance) if the election is a decisive result in favor of Biden, but the very fact that we’re even considering the possibility is frightening. I think @mozchron’s post in the other thread sums up what Biden needs to do to save this country. I hope he gets this and has the conviction to do what he needs to do. > [@The Pack the Court Question](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pack-the-court-question/921906/13): > > Assuming Biden wins the Presidency and the Dems hold the house and win the senate (looking good but i’m not celebrating until after the election), they must: > > 1. Pack the court. Go whole-hog to 13 justices. > 2. Admit DC and Puerto Rico as states to help ensure a Democratic Senate Majority going forward. > 3. Pass voter enfranchisement and protection laws with teeth. > 4. It’s a census year. RUTHLESSLY redistrict to ensure Democratic representation in the house. Hey, the repubs did it back in 2010. Elections have consequences. > 5. Lobby state governments for the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Just a handful more. > > I am very concerned that, after winning the battle for the Presidency, Biden and the Dems won’t have the stomach to complete the war. The republican party needs to be completely, utterly, destroyed. ---
**Author:** ![YamatoTwinkie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/cc9497/32.png) [@YamatoTwinkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YamatoTwinkie)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/134 "2020-10-08T20:24:33Z")
> [@robby](#): > > With the fleeting exception of John McCain (RIP) and Mitt Romney, I have given up on depending on Republicans to do the right thing for the country. Forget right thing for the country. It’s the right thing for their own _self-interest_. Any party with state wide governmental control that specifically and transparently pulls the rug from underneath a state-wide election of their own voters is going to rapidly find themselves out of office at the next election. Plus, where are the opportunities to do so? The only “toss-up” states with [complete Republican control of state government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_state_legislatures) are Florida, Ohio, and Arizona. None of which are “must win” states for Biden. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/135 "2020-10-08T20:38:34Z")
Plus, I feel like he has so many more tools at his disposal, and you know he won’t pull any stops. For example, not even allowing all votes to be counted.: > **[Justice Dept. Eases Election Fraud Inquiry Constraints as Trump Promotes...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/07/us/politics/justice-department-election-fraud.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20201007&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=cta®i_id=63384561&segment_id=40178&user_id=e12fbc6b39333ccdcd68715abf248184)** > > The move comes as President Trump promotes a false narrative of widespread voter fraud ahead of the election. My big concern is that the logical conclusion to every one of these tactics is the Supreme Court. Can we count on 5 decent justices to make the right decision? ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/136 "2020-10-08T20:56:37Z")
One key thing that will prevent item 2 from coming true in most cases: in almost all swing states, at least one of the following is Democratic: the legislature, the governor, or the Secretary of State. Most states have laws saying how electors are decided. The legislature cannot change the law without the governor’s approval. ---
**Author:** ![JayRx1981](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/71e660/32.png) [@JayRx1981](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JayRx1981)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/137 "2020-10-08T21:01:10Z")
Even if Ohio goes for Biden-Harris, I just don’t see Governor DeWine or Secretary of State LaRose allowing a “coup” with Ohio’s electors. Maybe I’m naïve, but DeWine has been one of the more responsible Republican governors with regards to COVID-19, particularly going against Trump’s statements with regards to masks and gatherings. He opened things up far faster than I’d like, but he’s been fairly consistent on messaging that masks are good. Likewise, DeWine, LaRose, and Husted (the Lt Governor) have all pushed back on mail-in ballots being a major source of election fraud and have been consistent with that messaging for months. I just don’t see them going against the will of the voters if Biden wins Ohio. ---
**Author:** ![robby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robby/32/11048_2.png) [@robby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robby)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/138 "2020-10-08T21:01:11Z")
> [@YamatoTwinkie](#): > > Forget right thing for the country. It’s the right thing for their own _self-interest_ . Any party with state wide governmental control that specifically and transparently pulls the rug from underneath a state-wide election of their own voters is going to rapidly find themselves out of office at the next election. I sincerely hope you’re right. But if Republicans cross the Rubicon by swinging a Presidential election in their favor by undemocratic means, what’s to stop them from doing so again to keep themselves in power in any subsequent election? ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/139 "2020-10-08T21:12:35Z")
Any coup won’t be an obvious move, like the votes clearly indicate a Biden majority yet the legislature chooses their own electors. Instead, it will be done under the guise of legality - close urban polling locations, reject ballots, stop the counting prematurely, etc. Get things to the point of Florida in 2000, where the courts are making the final call. We have Republicans who are solely self-vested and don’t care about what’s right for the country. We have some who have convinced themselves that Republican rule is what’s best for the country, and any means to achieve that is acceptable. And we have some caught up in the lies who will truly believe that they are protecting against fraud. Add all those groups up, and there are enough to overrule any Republicans who aren’t willing to go that far. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/140 "2020-10-08T21:14:19Z")
> [@The Pack the Court Question](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pack-the-court-question/921906/13): > > It’s a census year. RUTHLESSLY redistrict to ensure Democratic representation in the house. That’s not done on the Federal level. It’s done by the states. Vote your downballots, people. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/141 "2020-10-08T21:27:19Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > Any coup won’t be an obvious move, like the votes clearly indicate a Biden majority yet the legislature chooses their own electors On the plus side, if they do this they won’t have to fear getting voted out next election because it won’t be coming. On the downside, their enemies, which they would indeed be at that point, would know this also. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/142 "2020-10-08T22:12:29Z")
The danger is that Republicans as a party refuse to cooperate and refuse to accept the outcome. What that means specifically in terms of actions is anyone’s guess. It could be crying fake news but grudgingly moving the furniture out of their offices, but it could be weeks or even months of lawsuits, conspiracy theories, astroturfed demonstrations, and violence. I think there’s less chance of that happening if the election is a total blowout that includes strong defections by centrist Republicans and independents, but politically speaking, we’re potentially landing on an extraterrestrial landscape here in the coming weeks. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=8)