# FiveThirtyEight's election forecast is out! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 12, 2020, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890 "2020-08-12T15:01:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![YamatoTwinkie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/cc9497/32.png) [@YamatoTwinkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YamatoTwinkie)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/143 "2020-10-08T22:18:56Z")
> [@robby](#): > > > [@YamatoTwinkie](#): > > > > Forget right thing for the country. It’s the right thing for their own _self-interest_ . Any party with state wide governmental control that specifically and transparently pulls the rug from underneath a state-wide election of their own voters is going to rapidly find themselves out of office at the next election. > > I sincerely hope you’re right. But if Republicans cross the Rubicon by swinging a Presidential election in their favor by undemocratic means, what’s to stop them from doing so again to keep themselves in power in any subsequent election? Even for local/state elections, there’s only so much _legal_ gerrymandering and voter suppression any individual state party can perform without butting up against the 14th, 15th, 19th, and 26th amendments, and various Federal voting rights laws. _Especially_ when the majority of the state’s voting populace is already pissed off for completely denying them their vote at the prior election. And there’s no way party discipline is strong enough to keep a massive illegal vote-stealing conspiracy together. You’d have defectors that can see which way the wind is blowing, and the whole thing would fall apart. Again, all for what? To swing one election for _Donald Trump_? ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/144 "2020-10-08T22:21:19Z")
> [@YamatoTwinkie](#): > > Again, all for what? To swing one election for _Donald Trump_ ? Possibly. I do realize that if it is something like 54-46 in the popular vote, even Republicans will start throwing their hands up and insist he give up. I’m more concerned if it is 52-48 or 51-49. ---
**Author:** ![robby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robby/32/11048_2.png) [@robby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robby)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/145 "2020-10-09T05:09:21Z")
> [@YamatoTwinkie](#): > > Again, all for what? To swing one election for _Donald Trump_ ? I’ve been asking a similar question for the past five years, as I have watched the Republican Party abandon virtually all its core principles (like fiscal responsibility, balanced budgets, and support for our allies and international trade agreements) and to instead support whatever Donald Trump wants, as exemplified in their recent party platform. In short, the Republican Party is indistinguishable from a cult at this point, and Donald Trump is the cult leader. This has culminated in the Republican Party becoming increasingly hostile towards the rule of law and democracy itself. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 7:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/146 "2020-10-09T07:34:42Z")
> [@robby](#): > > With the fleeting exception of John McCain (RIP) and Mitt Romney The Mitt Romney I’ve seen openly salivating on camera at the chance to get another anti-abortion Judge on the SC, and poo-pooing the idea of any hypocrisy on that versus blocking Garland? _That_ Mitt Romney? Fleeting indeed. ---
**Author:** ![robby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robby/32/11048_2.png) [@robby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robby)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/147 "2020-10-09T13:24:57Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > > [@robby](#): > > > > With the fleeting exception of John McCain (RIP) and Mitt Romney > > The Mitt Romney I’ve seen openly salivating on camera at the chance to get another anti-abortion Judge on the SC, and poo-pooing the idea of any hypocrisy on that versus blocking Garland? _That_ Mitt Romney? Fleeting indeed. I don’t disagree with you here. I was referring to him being the lone Republican senator to vote in favor of removing Trump from office (when he voted to convict Trump on the first count of abuse of power in his impeachment trial). ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/148 "2020-10-09T13:47:28Z")
Now at 85%. Ohio is now colored blue (may have happened earlier though is a toss-up), Florida is at 71%, PA is at 86% Definitely not a time to be complacent, but better that if the % were reversed. Brian ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/149 "2020-10-09T14:12:53Z")
I saw a poll earlier today noting once again that Democratic voters are far more likely to be voting by mail or early in person. That’s not really news but it did make me think that this will put a damper on GOP attempts to intimidate voters on Nov. 3. If most of those in line to vote are Republicans, there are far fewer to intimidate with their cute little guns and camo clothing. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/150 "2020-10-09T14:24:09Z")
In past decades, early voters were elderly and military mostly. They swung heavily GOP. Things have totally shifted. Those early voters are way more Liberal now. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/151 "2020-10-09T14:36:07Z")
Not only that, the same elderly are much more likely to be voting Biden this year compared to the typical elderly voter of previous years. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/152 "2020-10-09T15:08:41Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > If most of those in line to vote are Republicans, there are far fewer to intimidate with their cute little guns and camo clothing. Good point! ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/153 "2020-10-09T15:44:04Z")
And the voter that they “intimidate with their cute little guns and camo clothing” may be my mother. A little old Republican lady… … who’d pull up in her Oldsmobile, see the scary rednecks, and leave without voting. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/154 "2020-10-09T17:54:09Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > In past decades, early voters were elderly and military mostly. They swung heavily GOP. Things have totally shifted. Those early voters are way more Liberal now. Everybody (including Trump) has been assuming this for several months now–that the mail-in ballots are mostly Democrats. But is there any actual evidence that it is true? ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/155 "2020-10-09T18:17:32Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > > [@hajario](#): > > > > In past decades, early voters were elderly and military mostly. They swung heavily GOP. Things have totally shifted. Those early voters are way more Liberal now. > > Everybody (including Trump) has been assuming this for several months now–that the mail-in ballots are mostly Democrats. But is there any actual evidence that it is true?. I can’t help but think that the Texas governor’s attempt to suppress voting by limiting counties to having a single drop-off location for absentee ballots could end up biting him in the ass, if it makes it more difficult for rural voters to vote than urban voters. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/156 "2020-10-09T18:23:01Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > Everybody (including Trump) has been assuming this for several months now–that the mail-in ballots are mostly Democrats. But is there any actual evidence that it is true? Here are some numbers: [https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/520306-democrats-surge-past-republicans-in-early-voting](https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/520306-democrats-surge-past-republicans-in-early-voting) An example: In Florida in 2016 there were 37% Democratic ballots returned at this point compared to 35% GOP. This year it’s 53% Democratic, 28% GOP. Nationwide at this point there were 750,000 ballots cast. This year it’s over 6 million. A lot will still depend on getting out infrequent and unlikely voters on election day itself. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/157 "2020-10-09T18:46:10Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > I can’t help but think that the Texas governor’s attempt to suppress voting by limiting counties to having a single drop-off location for absentee ballots could end up biting him in the ass, if it makes it more difficult for rural voters to vote than urban voters. Unfortunately, it definitely impacts the denser counties more. The reason is that in Texas, it’s not just a mailbox-like thing where you drop your ballot. You actually have to prove your identity to a worker at the drop-off spot, and you can drop off only your own ballot - you can’t even drop off ballots for family members. With these requirements, a single location serving a large population will have long lines. ---
**Author:** ![Kyomara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8edcca/32.png) [@Kyomara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kyomara)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/158 "2020-10-09T19:47:44Z")
I’ve been checking FiveThirtyEight every day and watching that number inch up further and further in Biden’s favor. But isn’t that number a likelihood, not a polling average? In other words, it stands to reason that each passing day leaves Trump with fewer and fewer paths to victory, but it doesn’t mean that any fewer people are planning to vote for him. I get excited watching that number go up, then wonder whether it actually indicates any kind of shift, as opposed to a reinforcement of existing reality. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/159 "2020-10-09T19:53:36Z")
> [@Kyomara](#): > > I get excited watching that number go up, then wonder whether it actually indicates any kind of shift, as opposed to a reinforcement of existing reality. Biden’s poll numbers have been going up in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Florida, and also going up in states like Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, and even Texas that haven’t previously been considered to even be in play. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/160 "2020-10-09T19:54:45Z")
Keep the pedal to the metal! No room for complacency! ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/161 "2020-10-09T19:59:48Z")
> [@Kyomara](#): > > I’ve been checking FiveThirtyEight every day and watching that number inch up further and further in Biden’s favor. But isn’t that number a likelihood, not a polling average? In other words, it stands to reason that each passing day leaves Trump with fewer and fewer paths to victory, but it doesn’t mean that any fewer people are planning to vote for him. It’s been a little of both. As Nate Silver notes, if the polling numbers looked exacty the same six weeks ago, and today, his models would have a higher percentage for Biden now than they would have six weeks ago, because the models take into account the length of time remaining until the election as an “uncertainty” variable. In other words, a 6 point lead today is “safer” than a 6 point lead on September 1st, because there’s less time for the trailing candidate to make up ground. But, in addition to that, the polling numbers have been continually moving in Biden’s favor, both nationally and in a number of swing states, over the past few weeks, and that obviously plays a role, too. ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2020, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/162 "2020-10-09T20:26:34Z")
> [@Kyomara](#): > > In other words, it stands to reason that each passing day leaves Trump with fewer and fewer paths to victory, but it doesn’t mean that any fewer people are planning to vote for him. If you look at the “How our forecast has changed” section and choose either the Electoral Vote or Popular vote option, you can see those have changed a bit for absolute vote percentages - and at the same time you can see that the blue and red shaded areas around the vote totals have narrowed as the election has approached - it’s the combo of both effects going into the final likelihood. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=9)