# FL canvassing boards disenfranchised African American Republicans? (times 50) **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 14, 2001, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345 "2001-11-14T17:17:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Beagle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/85f322/32.png) [@Beagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beagle)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2001, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/1 "2001-11-14T17:17:56Z")
[This surprised me.](http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-000090337nov12.story?coll=la-news-comment-opinions) So many threads here have dealt with the disproportonate number of African American ballots spoiled in Florida. As it turns out there was a correlation between race and spoilage - but the most victimized were African American **Republicans**. Would anyone still claiming that the Republicans “stole the election” like to explain these numbers? > [@](#): > > **The LA Times** : The new findings show that African American Republicans who voted in Florida were **in excess of 50 times** more likely than the average African American to have had a ballot declared invalid because it was spoiled. > —(emphasis mine)— > In addition, we found that the overall rate of spoiled ballots was 14% higher when the county election supervisor was a Democrat, and 31% higher when the supervisor was an African American Democrat. Could it be true that, as the authors conclude, “those who screamed discrimination the loudest may have the most to hide?” The numbers seem to suggest that. “In excess of 50 times” constitutes a political “badge of fraud,” IMO. The “badges of fraud” are circumstances which, in the absence of direct evidence, suggest a fraud was perpetrated - usually used in the context of financial transactions. A search on “badges of fraud” would probably turn up several thousand hits. ---
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2001, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/2 "2001-11-14T22:51:41Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Beagle \* > \*\* Would anyone still claiming that the Republicans “stole the election” like to explain these numbers?.. A search on “badges of fraud” would probably turn up several thousand hits. \*\* Thanks for starting this thread, **Beagle.** Sam Stone mentioned this report on another thread, and I had made a couple of comments about it there. [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?threadid=98543&pagenumber=2](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?threadid=98543&pagenumber=2) The Lott-Glassman study can be understood in relation to the report of the US Civil Rights Commission, which found that disproportionately many Black votes had been discarded in Florida. That study used a type of statistical inference, which depends on a number of assumptions – assumptions that cannot be verified. One support the USCRC offered for their conclusion was that race explained the distribution of discarded votes better than any other variable they looked at. Now there is more data. Thanks to the individual review of all discarded ballots, for most of them it is now known whether they were intended for Gore or for Bush. Using this additional data, Lott and Glassman found a much better explanatory variable, i.e., Black Republican voter, rather than just Black voter. One reason the L-G makes intuitive sense is that IIRC most Blacks live in Democratic-controlled districts. Why should Democrats want to throw out Black votes? But, it makes a lot more sense for Democrats to throw out Black _Republican_ votes. ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/3 "2001-11-15T02:04:17Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by december \* > Why should Democrats want to throw out Black votes? But, it makes a lot more sense for Democrats to throw out Black _Republican_ votes. Oh god, here we go again. Please produce evidence that “Democrats” were able to distinguish “Black” votes from all others, and also evidence that “Democrats” intentionally and disproportionately “threw out” “Black” “Republican” votes while “throwing out” proportionately fewer “Republican” votes of other races. ---
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/4 "2001-11-15T02:43:18Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by minty green \* > \*\*Please produce evidence that “Democrats” were able to distinguish “Black” votes from all others, and also evidence that “Democrats” intentionally and disproportionately “threw out” “Black” “Republican” votes while “throwing out” proportionately fewer “Republican” votes of other races. \*\* The study will stand or fall on its own. I haven’t seen it. If anyone has a link to it, please share it with us. In the absence of the study, we can formulate hypotheses and debate their plausibility. The idea that Republicans unfairly invalidated many Black Democratic votes would be one such hypothesis. I offered an alternative. **MG** , you know I didnt ssay I had evidence. I said that my hypothesis makes more sense than the other hypothesis. YMMV Here’s a more detailed hypothesis that could conceivably account for the results of the Lott-Glassman study. Suppose that:[li]Most Black voters live in Democratic districts. [_]Blacks were more likely than whites to submit a flawed ballot [_]Some Democratic officials were harsher in throwing out Bush votes than Gore votes. That is, Bush votes with a slight flaws were thrown out; Gore votes with slight flaws were counted.[/list] Then, it might follow that a disproportionately high percentage of Black Republicans could have had their votes not counted.[/li] As you and I both said, I don’t have evidence for this hypothesis. In fact, parts of it seem far-fetched. (However, if the L-H study is valid, then something strange must have occurred.) I hope the L-H study becomes available soon, while this thread is still live. Then we can debate the study on its merits. ---
**Author:** ![Sofa\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/58956e/32.png) [@Sofa\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sofa_King)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/5 "2001-11-15T02:49:01Z")
Isn’t it sad that you can compare “African American Republicans” to “average African Americans,” of whom “African American Republicans” are presumably a part, and discover such a disparity? My God, the statistics of it all… ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/6 "2001-11-15T03:33:47Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by december \* > As you and I both said, I don’t have evidence for this hypothesis. In fact, parts of it seem far-fetched. Uh, no. You said: > [@](#): > > Now there is more data. Thanks to the individual review of all discarded ballots, for most of them it is now known whether they were intended for Gore or for Bush. Using this additional data, Lott and Glassman found a much better explanatory variable, i.e., Black Republican voter, rather than just Black voter. > > One reason the L-G makes intuitive sense is that IIRC most Blacks live in Democratic-controlled districts. Why should Democrats want to throw out Black votes? But, it makes a lot more sense for Democrats to throw out Black Republican votes. . . . which is not even **remotely** like saying it is “far-fetched.” ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/7 "2001-11-15T03:41:42Z")
> [@](#): > > Blacks were more likely than whites to submit a flawed ballot I’m interested in this little nugget, myself. **december**? ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/8 "2001-11-15T03:46:16Z")
Easily explained, **Gadarene**. Blacks were far more likely to live in precincts with crappy voting equipment. But I’m sure **december** will be along shortly to tell you how it can be interpreted to show that Democrats are racists. ---
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/9 "2001-11-15T03:56:04Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by minty green \* > \*\*. . . which is not even **remotely** like saying it is “far-fetched.” \*\* **minty** , I guess you’re questioning the internal consistency of my two statements. I said my hypothesis makes _more sense_ than the other one. It seems reasonable IMHO that a higher % of Black Rep votes got thrown out than Black Dem votes. However, a 50 to one ratio seems hard to swallow. Another hypothesis is that there could have been one particular district with major hanky-panky, so that the votes thrown out there dominated the statistics. Or, the number of Black Republicns may be so small, that the ratio isn’t as meaningful. As my statistician wife points out, if there were just two Black Republican and one had his vote thrown out, that would be 50%. If 1% of Black Dems had their votes thrown out, then you’d have a 50 to one ratio. All these different ideas just reinforce my desire to see the actual study. We might disagree technically with the study. At the very least the study would show which conceivable explanations might actually be possible. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/10 "2001-11-15T04:01:47Z")
Since the statistical issues have come up, also note that the very small number of Floridian African-American Republicans as compared to African-American Democrats (about 1 R for every 20 D’s) means that the numbers have disproportionate effects for the two groups. As an example, consider a pool of 101 voters consisting of 100 women and 1 man, where everybody has an equal small chance of spoiling a ballot, and say that one of the women spoiled a ballot. Headline: “1% of Female Ballots Discarded”. Now imagine that one woman and the lone man both spoiled ballots. Headline: “100% of Male Ballots Discarded! Chances of Disenfranchisement for Men One Hundred Times Greater than for Women!!” Etc. etc. etc. Discrepancies in the sample sizes can magnify discrepancies in the results. [Note added in preview: this is what **december** said in his last post.] The _LA Times_ seems to have applied some additional statistical processing to the existing data without really thinking about its logical implications, as **minty** pointed out. I don’t think it’s really possible to draw conclusions from these results without having more information about them. **december:** _In the absence of the study, we can formulate hypotheses and debate their plausibility._ Yeah, who needs the facts anyway? They just limit our creative freedom of interpretation. 🙂 Seriously, I think the term “sterile debate” was coined for situations just like this. We simply don’t have enough information about the data to know what it really means. ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/11 "2001-11-15T04:04:14Z")
> [@](#): > > Or, the number of Black Republicns may be so small, that the ratio isn’t as meaningful. As my statistician wife points out, if there were just two Black Republican and one had his vote thrown out, that would be 50%. If 1% of Black Dems had their votes thrown out, then you’d have a 50 to one ratio. This, by the way, is what I’m suspecting actually happened. (Thanks for clearing that up, **minty**! You can’t _imagine_ the dastardliness I inferred from **december’s** comment. Why, I was about ready to demonize him! :eek: ) ---
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/12 "2001-11-15T04:12:53Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Gadarene \* > \*\* > > > [@](#): > > > > Blacks were more likely than whites to submit a flawed ballot > > I’m interested in this little nugget, myself. **december**? \*\* That “little nugget” comes from Mary Frances Berry, head of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights. It was the major result of the earlier study that she reported on. I was more moderate than she was. I stated it as a hypothesis; she stated it as a conclusion. See: [http://www.usccr.gov/vote2000/stdraft1/main.htm](http://www.usccr.gov/vote2000/stdraft1/main.htm) **minty** wrote: > [@](#): > > Blacks were far more likely to live in precincts with crappy voting equipment. **Minty** , do you have a cite? Incidentally, the USCCR study specifically explored the relationship of voting equipment to discarded ballots. The study said that the relation between race and flawed ballots was stronger than the relation between voting equipment and flawed ballots. In other words, their study said that Black votes were disproportionately thrown out, and that voting equipment does not account for the difference. ---
**Author:** ![IzzyR](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/2acd7d/32.png) [@IzzyR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IzzyR)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/13 "2001-11-15T04:21:28Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Gadarene \* > > > [@](#): > > > > Blacks were more likely than whites to submit a flawed ballot > > I’m interested in this little nugget, myself. **december**? This is probably true. A very high percentage of the Black voters were first time voters - I believe an aggressive get-out-the-vote effort almost doubled black voting (as a percentage of the total vote) in FL as compared to the previous presidential election (or maybe it was the previous election). > [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by minty green \* > Please produce evidence that “Democrats” were able to distinguish “Black” votes from all others Where is this implied? The issue is whether Democrats are able to distinguish Republican votes from all others. (Having said all that, I am skeptical of the study myself) ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/14 "2001-11-15T04:23:40Z")
Hey **minty**! I’m interested in that little nugget again! > [@](#): > > The study said that the relation between race and flawed ballots was stronger than the relation between voting equipment and flawed ballots. “Why **december** ,” he said wonderingly, “Whatever do you think could account for this correlation? Why would blacks spoil more ballots than whites, if not for faulty equipment?” Hmmm? ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/15 "2001-11-15T04:26:08Z")
**IzzyR:** > [@](#): > > A very high percentage of the Black voters were first time voters - I believe an aggressive get-out-the-vote effort almost doubled black voting (as a percentage of the total vote) in FL as compared to the previous presidential election (or maybe it was the previous election). Mmmm…could be. Sounds plausible-ish. If this is the case, I withdraw the snarkiness directed at **december**. ---
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/16 "2001-11-15T04:40:30Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Gadarene \* > \*\*“Why **december** ,” he said wonderingly, “Whatever do you think could account for this correlation? Why would blacks spoil more ballots than whites, if not for faulty equipment?” > > Hmmm? \*\* Please don’t ask me; read the US Commission on Civil Rights study. This was _their conclusion_. ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/17 "2001-11-15T04:45:37Z")
More precisely, it was their conclusion that crappy equipment caused the spoilage. > [@](#): > > The report inflamed passions about the close vote in Florida six months after the election was finally decided. It said thousands of Floridians, especially black voters, were deprived of their votes by outdated equipment, improper purging of voter rolls and inadequate access to voting booths. [http://www.cbsnews.com/now/story/0,1597,295656-412,00.shtml](http://www.cbsnews.com/now/story/0,1597,295656-412,00.shtml) ---
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/18 "2001-11-15T04:53:03Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by minty green \* > \*\*More precisely, it was their conclusion that crappy equipment caused the spoilage. > > > [@](#): > > > > The report inflamed passions about the close vote in Florida six months after the election was finally decided. It said thousands of Floridians, especially black voters, were deprived of their votes by outdated equipment, improper purging of voter rolls and inadequate access to voting booths. > > [http://www.cbsnews.com/now/story/0,1597,295656-412,00.shtml](http://www.cbsnews.com/now/story/0,1597,295656-412,00.shtml) \*\* That’s a good cite, **Minty.** Interestingly, I read the statistical study on which the report was based. I remember clearly what it said. This may be a case where the published summary and/or the press release differed from the underlying study. It’s too late for me to keep at this, but perhaps I’ll look for the passage over the next couple of days. ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/19 "2001-11-15T04:56:28Z")
> [@](#): > > Please don’t ask me; read the US Commission on Civil Rights study. This was their conclusion. Yes. And I was asking you for a hypothesis. You seem to be good at those. ---
**Author:** ![IzzyR](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/2acd7d/32.png) [@IzzyR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IzzyR)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2001, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345/20 "2001-11-15T05:14:57Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Gadarene \* > \*\* > > > [@](#): > > > > Please don’t ask me; read the US Commission on Civil Rights study. This was their conclusion. > > Yes. And I was asking you for a hypothesis. You seem to be good at those. \*\* Is that _all_ you were doing? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-canvassing-boards-disenfranchised-african-american-republicans-times-50/93345.md?page=2)