# FL/MI Redux: What'll Happen on May 31? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 23, 2008, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374 "2008-05-23T16:24:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2008, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/1 "2008-05-23T16:24:28Z")
As most of my fellow political junkies here know, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) [meets on Saturday, May 31](http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/04/draft.html) (a week from tomorrow) to hear challenges and appeals to their decisions last year to penalize Florida and Michigan for jumping the Super Tuesday gun by depriving them of all their delegates. Their meeting, at the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel in D.C., will have both a morning and an afternoon session, and it sounds like they’re preparing to go into the night and perhaps the next day if necessary. It’ll be [open to the public](http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/rbc-meeting-is-open-to-public.html), but if you’re thinking of attending, you’ll need to pre-register. (My WAG is that means the press will be in attendance, and if there’s any room left over, some members of the general public who asked in advance might be squeezed in.) DCW [has run the numbers for some possible scenarios](http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/fl-mi-by-numbers_21.html), and it’s easy enough to mix and match them in various ways. (Minor caveat: their non-FL/MI superdelegate numbers are a day old; instead of 306.5 and 279.5 for Obama and Clinton, they’re 308.5 and 278.5 as I’m typing this.) Some speculation [here](http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/rbc-member-predicts-florida-will-be.html) by a RBC member who thinks the FL pledged delegates will be seated as is, but with only a half-vote per delegate, and that the FL supers will be seated with full votes. Some more (video) speculation [here](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/196455.php) by Greg Sargent of TPM, mostly pooh-poohing the speculation that Hillary pwns the RBC and they’ll do what she wants. So what do y’all think they’ll decide? I’ll give my own WAG in my next post. \*Note to mods: \*while this is unquestionably a poll, it’s hard for me to see it failing to turn into a political debate, given the subject matter, which is one reason why I’ve started it in GD. Another is that some posters interested in posting on political matters might well check GD but not IMHO. If you think it belongs in IMHO anyway, it’s your call. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2008, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/2 "2008-05-23T16:31:50Z")
My WAG is that: a) the RBC guy is right on FL - they’ll do the half-Nelson with respect to the pledged delegates, as already voted on, and seat the supers with full votes. (I think that’s ass-backwards - if anyone should be penalized, it’s the supers, but all the scuttlebutt I’ve heard seems to suggest they’re less inclined to penalize supers than the pledged delegates.) b) They’ll realize they can’t give FL’s pledged delegates just half-votes without doing the same for MI, so half-votes for MI’s pledged delegates, and full votes for their supers. c) They’ll give Obama _at least_ the 55 ‘uncommitted’ delegates. d) I’m betting on the 69-59 solution, actually. (Not that it makes much difference from the 73-55 split, when we’re talking half-votes, but what the hey. That’s my best WAG.) ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2008, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/3 "2008-05-23T16:37:30Z")
I think they’re probably going to agree to admit the supers…there’s really no reason not to. The superdelegates weren’t picked by illicit means. If I had to guess, I’d agree with Shay that the Florida delegates will be seated, maybe with half votes, and Michigan won’t be. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2008, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/4 "2008-05-23T16:44:49Z")
If my WAG came to pass, it would have this effect: If DCW has its counts right, there’d be 4260.5 total delegates, so 2130.5 would be needed to win. Obama would come out of the RBC meeting with 2040 delegates (plus any supers or Edwards delegates he picks up between now and then), needing 90.5 to win, and Hillary would come out with 1881 delegates (plus the same stuff), needing 249.5 to win. If the outcomes of the three remaining primaries were PR 38-17 for Hillary, and MT and SD 9-7 and 8-7 for Obama, then Obama would still need 56.5 super/Edwards delegates to win, and Hillary would need 197.5. If the RBC did nothing, the comparable numbers would be 25 and 194. So an outcome such as this doesn’t do a whole lot for Hillary, but it moves back the goalposts for Obama, moving back the date by which a steady trickle of superdelegate endorsements would put him over the top. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2008, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/5 "2008-05-23T16:46:46Z")
As to why I think what I posted above, the Florida primary was less distorted than the Michigan one, and therfore, a better snapshot of the opinion of the state at the time it was held. In Michigan, all the candidates other than Clinton and Kucinich had removed their name, so those people supporting other candidates just had to vote “uncommitted”. It’s also possible that people voted for Clinton and Kucinich who otherwise would have voted for someone else if they were on the ballot. In Florida, on the other hand, everyone was on the ballot, and with the exception of Barack Obama’s national ad buy that aired in Florida, along with the rest of the nation shortly before the primary, no candidate campaigned or ran ads there. So, since nobody campaigned, no one had an undue advantage, so it’s more likely the voice of the voter was heard. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2008, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/6 "2008-05-23T16:50:51Z")
[QUOTE=Captain Amazing] I think they’re probably going to agree to admit the supers…there’s really no reason not to. The superdelegates weren’t picked by illicit means. [/quote] My objection to the supers is that they, rather than the FL/MI Democratic voters who are represented by the pledged delegates, had an obligation to be proactive in making sure that their state parties did what they could to have a legal primary or caucus. To the extent that they just stood aside and let this happen, they should receive the heavier penalties. > [@](#): > > If I had to guess, I’d agree with Shay that the Florida delegates will be seated, maybe with half votes, and Michigan won’t be. Do you mean Michigan won’t be seated at all, or Michigan will be seated but won’t get penalized with half votes? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2008, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/7 "2008-05-23T17:02:34Z")
[QUOTE=Captain Amazing] As to why I think what I posted above, the Florida primary was less distorted than the Michigan one, and therfore, a better snapshot of the opinion of the state at the time it was held. In Michigan, all the candidates other than Clinton and Kucinich had removed their name, so those people supporting other candidates just had to vote “uncommitted”. It’s also possible that people voted for Clinton and Kucinich who otherwise would have voted for someone else if they were on the ballot. In Florida, on the other hand, everyone was on the ballot, and with the exception of Barack Obama’s national ad buy that aired in Florida, along with the rest of the nation shortly before the primary, no candidate campaigned or ran ads there. So, since nobody campaigned, no one had an undue advantage, so it’s more likely the voice of the voter was heard. [/QUOTE] I’d agree in part and disagree in part. The FL primary did provide at least a semi-decent snapshot of voter preferences, while MI really didn’t. However, I’d argue that, especially in an early primary, the absence of any campaigning before the voting is inherently advantageous to a more well-known, established candidate over a less well-known newcomer. Getting back to the main discussion, I think they’ll give MI _something_, simply to avoid shutting MI out altogether. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2008, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/8 "2008-05-23T17:04:53Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] My objection to the supers is that they, rather than the FL/MI Democratic voters who are represented by the pledged delegates, had an obligation to be proactive in making sure that their state parties did what they could to have a legal primary or caucus. To the extent that they just stood aside and let this happen, they should receive the heavier penalties. [/quote] But the only superdelegates who had a part in moving the primaries forward were those who also happen to be members of the state legislature. Most of the superdelegates are US congressmen, state and county chairs, etc. They didn’t have any say in the primary date. Besides, the reason the pledged delegates wouldn’t be seated was because they weren’t selected by a legal primary/caucus. That doesn’t apply to the superdelegates, who were selected according to party rules, no matter what you think their role should have been in making sure the state had a legal primary/caucus. > [@](#): > > Do you mean Michigan won’t be seated at all, or Michigan will be seated but won’t get penalized with half votes? I don’t think Michigan will be seated at all, or at least not their pledged delegates. ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2008, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/9 "2008-05-23T17:09:05Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] I’d agree in part and disagree in part. The FL primary did provide at least a semi-decent snapshot of voter preferences, while MI really didn’t. However, I’d argue that, especially in an early primary, the absence of any campaigning before the voting is inherently advantageous to a more well-known, established candidate over a less well-known newcomer. Getting back to the main discussion, I think they’ll give MI _something_, simply to avoid shutting MI out altogether. [/QUOTE] You’d think so, but Obama invariably gained ground on Clinton wherever he campaigned. Every time, without exception, once the campaigning began Hillary lost ground. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2008, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/10 "2008-05-23T17:26:39Z")
Remember the question isn’t what should happen but what will happen. Off the table: they won’t be seated as is and they won’t not get seated. Florida half votes for pledged and full for supers does more than parity with what the Pubbies did. The Michigan Democratic Party has proposed the 69-59 split and I think that Obama’s team will support it. It will be hard for the Clinton representatives to go against what the MI dems want and still say that they are fighting for them. (In reality it seems inequitable that Florida is punished to a greater extent than they are though. Fairer would be to have that split _with_ half votes for pledged, but I don’t think it will go down that way.) That would then cinch his pledged delegate majority and leave him with about 90 needed for an absolute win. The Pelosi group announces before Puerto Rico. He wins another 20 or so there. Enough other supers announce so that he’s just under the absolute majority before Montana and South Dakota go, and they put him over the top. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2008, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/11 "2008-05-23T21:39:58Z")
And all this speculation may be moot given Clinton’s comments today linking [her staying in the race to Bobby Kennedy’s assassination.](http://www.americablog.com/2008/05/breaking-hillary-reportedly-invoked.html) Hey, anything could happen, right? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/12 "2008-05-26T17:31:55Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] Florida half votes for pledged and full for supers does more than parity with what the Pubbies did. The Michigan Democratic Party has proposed the 69-59 split and I think that Obama’s team will support it. It will be hard for the Clinton representatives to go against what the MI dems want and still say that they are fighting for them. (In reality it seems inequitable that Florida is punished to a greater extent than they are though. Fairer would be to have that split _with_ half votes for pledged, but I don’t think it will go down that way.) That would then cinch his pledged delegate majority and leave him with about 90 needed for an absolute win. The Pelosi group announces before Puerto Rico. He wins another 20 or so there. Enough other supers announce so that he’s just under the absolute majority before Montana and South Dakota go, and they put him over the top. [/QUOTE] Is the Pelosi group all that big? DCW says that as of earlier this weekend, the ‘Pelosi club’ standed to net Obama [only 7 delegates](http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/superdelegates-pledging-to-back.html). By DCW’s current count (which includes supers that committed [as recently as yesterday](http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-endorsement-notes.html)), if Michigan gets the 69-59 solution with full votes for everyone, and if FL gets full votes for supers and half-votes for pledged delegates, then Obama would be [83 delegates from a win](http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/fl-mi-by-numbers_21.html). Say he picks up 34 on June 1 and June 3 (that’s my guess, and I’m sticking to it!), and the Pelosi club commits immediately afterwards. That means he still needs 42 additional supers or former Edwards delegates. While I wish it would happen, I don’t see Obama getting that many new supers/Edwards dels by a week from tomorrow. I’m guessing more like the June 10-14 neighborhood. ---
**Author:** ![Tristan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tristan/32/18058_2.png) [@Tristan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tristan)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/13 "2008-05-26T18:00:34Z")
What will happen: Something will be done, and it will end up in the courts. The next election year will be chaos, as states attempt to jump their primary votes since the DNC has no actual teeth, and will cave in the face of opposition. What should happen: Both states are told to put on their big girl panties and go home, they knew what would happen and went ahead anyway. If I tell my son he can’t do something, and he does it anyway, he gets punished. Same principle applies, imo. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/14 "2008-05-26T18:04:51Z")
7 is significant when it’s nearly 10% of what you need. And it is a major signal to the other supers to let their decisions known. I’d be unsurprised if the lion’s share of Edward"s Florida delegates are ready to declare for Obama upon settling of the issue. Say another 4 there. I’m not sure if he has enough supers ready to make it happen on June 3 (once he’s cinched the PD with an agreement on MI and FL taken into account) or if more will defer to Clinton’s sensibilities and the face of her supporters by giving her until a day or so after June 3 to drop on her own. I don’t how much more Hillary wants to embarrass herself. But more than a week after June 3? No way. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/15 "2008-05-26T18:25:32Z")
[QUOTE=Tristan] What will happen: Something will be done, and it will end up in the courts. [/quote] I doubt it. The courts have historically endorsed the right of political parties to run their nominating processes as they see fit. > [@](#): > > The next election year will be chaos, as states attempt to jump their primary votes since the DNC has no actual teeth, and will cave in the face of opposition. I disagree. I think the party’s sanctions have been effective in two ways, regardless of what happens this Saturday: (1) the MI and FL delegates haven’t been included in the ongoing counts of who’s ahead by how much (except at some Hillary-apologist websites, or at political-junkie sites that gave a whole range of alternatives. And (2) little emphasis was given to the MI and FL results _at the time_, which reduced the effect of the results there on succeeding primaries and caucuses. These two factors, in combination, have meant that FL and MI haven’t really mattered much this primary season. Letting them back in at the end in some fashion, after the contest has been all but formally decided, hardly changes that reality. I guess we’ll find out in 3.5 years. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/16 "2008-05-26T18:34:22Z")
Hopefully we don’t find out for 7.5. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/17 "2008-05-26T18:43:03Z")
That would be even better. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/18 "2008-05-26T19:41:44Z")
Hm. DemCon doesn’t show Alaska yet. > [@](#): > > PRESS > > PALMER - Presidential candidate Barack Obama picked up another superdelegate Saturday at the Democratic state party convention in Alaska. > > Former Gov. Tony Knowles said he would support Obama for president. > > “He has a message of hope and change,” Knowles said. “He has inspired incredible numbers of new people to believe in politics again.” > > Thirteen delegates were picked and one superdelegate at the convention. > > The final delegate count was 14 for Obama and 4 for Hillary Clinton, said party spokeswoman Kay Brown. That means that Obama picked up two delegates and Clinton lost one. [http://www.juneauempire.com/stories/052608/sta\_283024830.shtml](http://www.juneauempire.com/stories/052608/sta_283024830.shtml) Or Hawaii. > [@](#): > > Hawaii Democrats elected Brian Schatz as the new party chairman and wrapped up their three-day state convention at the Hilton Hawaiian Village by awarding presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) three more superdelegate votes. [http://starbulletin.com/2008/05/26/news/story04.html](http://starbulletin.com/2008/05/26/news/story04.html) Wait. Now it does. Weird. We are currently at… Obama 1660.5 315.5 1976 49 Clinton 1499.5 279.5 1779 246 Edwards 7 All Obama needs is 49… or 49+ whatever the results from MI/FL wind up being. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/19 "2008-05-26T21:57:47Z")
[QUOTE=E-Sabbath] Hm. DemCon doesn’t show Alaska yet. [http://www.juneauempire.com/stories/052608/sta\_283024830.shtml](http://www.juneauempire.com/stories/052608/sta_283024830.shtml) Or Hawaii. [http://starbulletin.com/2008/05/26/news/story04.html](http://starbulletin.com/2008/05/26/news/story04.html) Wait. Now it does. Weird. We are currently at… Obama 1660.5 315.5 1976 49 Clinton 1499.5 279.5 1779 246 Edwards 7 All Obama needs is 49… or 49+ whatever the results from MI/FL wind up being. [/QUOTE] Yeah, the ‘+’ part is important. If the RBC were meeting the weekend _after_ the last primaries, then Obama would almost surely cross the 2025 threshold before they met, and IMHO they’d have a much harder time justifying moving the goalposts after he’d crossed the goal line than when he was still on the 2-yard line. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2008, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374/20 "2008-05-28T23:42:12Z")
I suspect that most have alreay seen [this](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2008/May/28/dem_lawyers __fla___ mich__can_t_be_fully_restored.html) but offer it up anyway. > [@](#): > > Democratic National Committee rules require that the two states lose at least half of their convention delegates for holding elections too early, the party’s legal experts wrote in a 38-page memo. > … > The analysis also said there is an option to restore 100 percent of the delegates — by a recommendation of the Credentials Committee that meets later this summer. However, that would mean a final decision would not be made until the first day of the convention in Denver since Credentials Committee decisions have to be approved by the full convention as it convenes — risking a floor fight. Now what authority or influence do those lawyers have in reality? Does this rule out giving MI full delegates split with some to Obama at this juncture? Or is it really just advisory? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-mi-redux-whatll-happen-on-may-31/450374.md?page=2)