# "FL, VA, and NC are Romney for sure. We are no longer polling there." **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 10, 2012, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321 "2012-10-10T16:16:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2012, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/61 "2012-10-18T17:04:58Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > Ok cool, but **adaher** was talking as if this was a certain fact, and its definitely not that. Facts have a liberal bias. And that’s a fact. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2012, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/62 "2012-10-18T19:11:47Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > I know. I was answering the question “Who said the Democrats were giving up on Florida?” The answer is: **HurricaneDitka’s** link, and perhaps the poster himself. To clear up that ambiguity, I have no idea if Obama’s campaign is giving up on Florida. I was merely sharing some interesting information I’d run across. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2012, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/63 "2012-10-18T21:45:28Z")
A liberal blog commenter said this about the previously cited article: > [@](#): > > Yesterday there was the National Journal article from a former Fox News alum about Obama ‘circling the wagons’ and pulling out of FL/NC/VA. This was immediately debunked by the O campaign, but enough people ran with it for a while to give it some credibility. I hadn’t heard anything about the past of the person making this claim, or about any “debunking,” but then, I hadn’t heard about this at all until it was brought up in this thread. If anyone can fill in any gaps, feel free. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2012, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/64 "2012-10-18T23:24:34Z")
The source isn’t credible enough to keep a job at Fox. Wow. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2012, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/65 "2012-10-19T01:50:13Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > Ok cool, but **adaher** was talking as if this was a certain fact, and its definitely not that. Pretty much typical though. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2012, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/66 "2012-10-20T01:55:12Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > A liberal blog commenter said this about the previously cited article: > > I hadn’t heard anything about the past of the person making this claim, or about any “debunking,” but then, I hadn’t heard about this at all until it was brought up in this thread. If anyone can fill in any gaps, feel free. Obama was campaigning in Virginia earlier today - that’s where he made his ‘Romnesia’ speech. I’d say that’s a sufficient debunking of any claim that his campaign has pulled out of Virginia. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2012, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/67 "2012-10-20T02:04:47Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > That, apparently, is what [the Suffolk University Political Research Center](http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=eNTUkZpk3kc) thinks. I’m looking forward to seeing the egg on their face in about 18 days. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/68 "2012-10-22T18:37:02Z")
Looking at the [RCP map](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_race_changes.html) at this time, here are my thoughts on the electoral math: Let’s assume Romney & Obama each win the states currently colored for them (not a given by any means, of course) and focus on the toss-up states, here are Romney’s chances. He has to win FL, VA, & CO, in all of which he is currently favored by very narrow margins, and then pick off some states in BO is currently the narrow favorite. His two most likely scenarios are 1) win Ohio, and 2) win any two of IA, NV & WI. (If he wins IA & NV, he wins in the House of Representatives.) BO is obviously the favorite at this point, but it’s close enough to make this kind of stuff interesting. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/69 "2012-10-22T19:50:25Z")
I could do without the high level of interest I’m currently suffering… ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/70 "2012-10-22T19:52:03Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > I could do without the high level of interest I’m currently suffering… My heart can’t take all of this interest! ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Lowry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Sam\_Lowry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Lowry)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/71 "2012-10-24T14:24:46Z")
I thought [this article](http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/10/romney-says-hes-winning-its-a-bluff.html) was interesting, and is relevant to this thread. It says > [@](#): > > Despite a lack of any evident positive momentum over the last week — indeed, in the face of a slight decline from its post-Denver high — the Romney camp is suddenly bursting with talk that it will not only win but win handily… > > This is a bluff. Romney is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Might be a smart strategy, hopefully not a winning one. ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/72 "2012-10-24T15:15:45Z")
Take this for what it’s worth, but I’ve heard that Obama’s team has also stopped polling VA. All the polls I’ve seen appear to be within the margin of error. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/73 "2012-10-24T15:23:53Z")
> [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](#): > > Take this for what it’s worth, but I’ve heard that Obama’s team has also stopped polling VA. All the polls I’ve seen appear to be within the margin of error. Don’t these two sentences contradict each other? Or do you take it as evidence that Obama’s internal polls show something different? ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/74 "2012-10-24T15:27:13Z")
The person who told me Obama’s team had stopped polling VA implied they were conceding the state. I’m wondering why they would do that if the polls are within the margin of error. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/75 "2012-10-24T15:36:00Z")
Leaving aside the issue of whether this info is true altogether, I don’t think it implies that they are “conceding the state” in the sense of “we will definitely lose here”. It just means “based on our current assessment of the situation our resources are better deployed elsewhere”. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/76 "2012-10-24T15:45:40Z")
It’s possible that the Obama campaign would concede Florida at some point since it’s an expensive state they don’t really need and they appear to be a point or two down. I think it’s vanishingly unlikely they would concede Virginia. It’s their leading “Plan B” if they lose Ohio and they have every chance of winning it. Currently 538 gives them a 51% chance. ``` Right now the most likely path to victory for Obama goes through Ohio, Nevada and Wisconsin. There are four additional buffer states which they could reasonably hope to win: Iowa, Virginia, Colorado and NH. I could see them conceding Florida and focusing on these 7 but I am pretty certain they won't concede any of the 7. In fact my hunch is they won't concede Florida either. ``` ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/77 "2012-11-07T18:57:12Z")
So. This did not work out for him. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/78 "2012-11-10T23:09:23Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I’m looking forward to seeing the egg on their face in about 18 days. Yeppers. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/79 "2012-11-11T01:58:26Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Yeppers. 🙂 Fun bit of trivia: David Paleologos is the Director of that Suffolk University Political Research Center. His name literally means “old reason” or “old reasoning”, “old ideas” Paleo=old Logos=thought, reckoning, gather, **recount**. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321/80 "2012-11-11T02:25:12Z")
Where is adaher? He logged in yesterday in the wee hours of the morning… but didn’t post anything. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fl-va-and-nc-are-romney-for-sure-we-are-no-longer-polling-there/637321.md?page=5)