# Flawed (but interesting) logic **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [April 7, 2017, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/flawed-but-interesting-logic/783947 "2017-04-07T02:21:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2017, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/flawed-but-interesting-logic/783947/101 "2017-04-13T19:39:33Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > Isn’t that where “expert opinions” come into play? > > “In my expert opinion, based on the tests I ran, these are AVX resistors” Sure, that works. I, too, would be hesitant, though, if someone asked me if I “proved” something when all I can offer is my expert opinion, and I’d be very careful to phrase it that way. If somebody came to me in my area of expertise–photography–and asked me to “prove” whether a photo is genuine or not, I can definitely tell you in the negative if I spot tell-tale signs of tampering, but I couldn’t definitively prove it was real. Now, granted, image forensics are not my expertise, but even if they were, I can’t see how I can absolutely state whether a photo is 100% unaltered. The best I can say is that, to my knowledge and with all available tests that I know, in my opinion, it appears to be a genuine photograph. ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2017, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/flawed-but-interesting-logic/783947/102 "2017-04-13T19:41:58Z")
My question is this: Who has the ability to manufacture resistors that are, in every respect, indistinguishable from those made by AVX, but who cannot duplicate AVX’s markings? Who screwed up the markings so badly that they were caught by a casual naked-eye observation… when they got everything else right? ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2017, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/flawed-but-interesting-logic/783947/103 "2017-04-13T19:46:20Z")
> [@panache45](#): > > My question is this: Who has the ability to manufacture resistors that are, in every respect, indistinguishable from those made by AVX, but who cannot duplicate AVX’s markings? Who screwed up the markings so badly that they were caught by a casual naked-eye observation… when they got everything else right? Hopefully, **Crafter\_Man** can chime back in here and further elucidate the matter a bit. ---
**Author:** ![Gatopescado](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gatopescado/32/5711_2.png) [@Gatopescado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gatopescado)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2017, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/flawed-but-interesting-logic/783947/104 "2017-04-13T20:05:21Z")
This thread is moving from “Flawed Logic” into “Stupid People” territory. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2017, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/flawed-but-interesting-logic/783947/105 "2017-04-13T20:26:08Z")
> [@panache45](#): > > My question is this: Who has the ability to manufacture resistors that are, in every respect, indistinguishable from those made by AVX, but who cannot duplicate AVX’s markings? Who screwed up the markings so badly that they were caught by a casual naked-eye observation… when they got everything else right? Elsewhere in the “Stupid Bosses” Thread: \*\*“Boss comes to me 'Hey, I said we could provide some AVX resistors to this business. Package up 35 resistors and ship them off” “I said, 'Boss we are out of AVXs” “Boss says 'I told them already we would send them. This could be the beginning of a big order. Ship 35 AVX resistors!” (typical dumb boss!) “I tell the Boss 'We are out, I cannot physically do it” “Boss says 'Fine, wait here a moment” “He comes back with 35 resistors and says 'Here! Ship these off!” “Now, they don’t look right to me, the colors are all off, and I’m not too certain these are AVX quality, but the Boss HAS to be right, right?” “So I ship them. Hope no problems were caused” "Worst part is, the Boss yelled at me for making HIM get the resistors instead of doing my job. I hate my boss!\*\* ---
**Author:** ![Crafter\_Man](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crafter_man/32/458_2.png) [@Crafter\_Man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crafter_Man)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2017, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/flawed-but-interesting-logic/783947/106 "2017-04-14T14:17:56Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I’m wondering now if there is an actual way to definitively prove the source of a resistor, then. No, and that was my point. It all goes back to the concept of the null hypothesis and the impossibility of “proving a negative.” Before testing my null hypothesis was that there were no differences between the 35 “suspect” resistors and the 10 AVX resistors. Based on my limited testing, I did not see any differences, hence I did not reject the null hypothesis. But does that mean the suspect resistors are indeed AVX resistors? No. Perhaps I missed something. Perhaps my testing wasn’t thorough enough. Perhaps one of my instruments was out of calibration. Perhaps the 35 suspect resistors are Chinese knockoffs, but are manufactured “so good” that they’re indistinguishable from AVX resistors. So I can’t say the 35 suspect resistors are AVX resistors. All I can say is that I didn’t see any differences. Now had I observed any differences, I _could_ say with confidences that the 35 suspect resistors are _not_ AVX resistors. (This assumes, of course, AVX did not suddenly change their construction techniques.) ---
**Author:** ![Crafter\_Man](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crafter_man/32/458_2.png) [@Crafter\_Man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crafter_Man)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2017, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/flawed-but-interesting-logic/783947/107 "2017-04-14T14:19:56Z")
> [@panache45](#): > > My question is this: Who has the ability to manufacture resistors that are, in every respect, indistinguishable from those made by AVX, but who cannot duplicate AVX’s markings? Who screwed up the markings so badly that they were caught by a casual naked-eye observation… when they got everything else right? It’s DoD related, and unfortunately I can’t provide background info. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2017, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/flawed-but-interesting-logic/783947/108 "2017-04-14T14:24:03Z")
Continuing the hijack, this story seems relevant. (Article has autoplay video.) [Coast Guard warns about fake ferry parts](http://www.king5.com/news/local/coast-guard-warns-about-fake-ferry-parts/431133241) > [@](#): > > The warning comes after a ferry in North Carolina took on water after counterfeit bolts in the engine room failed, causing machinery connected to the propeller to shift and allow water to pour into the engine room. ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2017, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/flawed-but-interesting-logic/783947/109 "2017-04-14T14:25:27Z")
Thanks for coming back and clarifying, **Crafter Man**. I hope you don’t blame us for being confused: based on the original story, your boss could have just wanted you to look at the box the resistors came in and see what brand they were, or something like that that meant the misunderstanding was on your side. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2017, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/flawed-but-interesting-logic/783947/110 "2017-04-14T15:54:09Z")
> [@Crafter\_Man](#): > > No, and that was my point. > > It all goes back to the concept of the null hypothesis and the impossibility of “proving a negative.” > > Before testing my null hypothesis was that there were no differences between the 35 “suspect” resistors and the 10 AVX resistors. Based on my limited testing, I did not see any differences, hence I did not reject the null hypothesis. But does that mean the suspect resistors are indeed AVX resistors? No. Perhaps I missed something. Perhaps my testing wasn’t thorough enough. Perhaps one of my instruments was out of calibration. Perhaps the 35 suspect resistors are Chinese knockoffs, but are manufactured “so good” that they’re indistinguishable from AVX resistors. > > So I can’t say the 35 suspect resistors are AVX resistors. All I can say is that I didn’t see any differences. > > Now had I observed any differences, I _could_ say with confidences that the 35 suspect resistors are _not_ AVX resistors. (This assumes, of course, AVX did not suddenly change their construction techniques.) This is a cool technique I’m going to use next time I buy a car! “PROVE this is a Lexus, or else give me $5000 off! Ha ha, can’t prove a negative!” 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2017, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/flawed-but-interesting-logic/783947/111 "2017-04-14T16:38:08Z")
> [@constanze](#): > > Sorry, forgot that you have that Kind of heating System. > > No, that’s terribly wasteful, and only for sub-Standard situations. > > commonplace in rented apt.s in cities (= standarf Situation) is a central heating unit for the whole house (with 4-6 Levels, or 20, of apt.s). That means, a heating unit (oil or gas; modern ones Wood Chips or Wood pellets) heats water, which is lead through pipes into the Units in each room, like this [Heizkörper – Wikipedia](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heizk%C3%B6rper#/media/File:Ernst-may-haus-_(2).jpg) made from cast iron, painted White. > Some cities offer district heating [District heating - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/District_heating) instead. > > If the house is older (back when People heated with Wood or coal ovens in each room), then it’s often converted to “central heating” for each apt. - one Boiler, and a Radiator for each room. > > If the house was built in the last few decades as a single standalone Family house, to follow the new 3 Liters\* law for private houses, they may have a central heating unit that does use air with a heat exchanger in the Basement. So you use boilers instead of furnaces. The same principle applies. The boiler heats water to a set temperature, using the same flame regardless of demand. You set your thermostat to cut off demand at a certain temperature, say 70F. When the house reaches 70F, the thermostat tells the boiler control to shut off the flame. Turning the thermostat higher doesn’t make the house heat up faster, nor does it make the boiler use a bigger flame; it just makes the boiler run longer to reach the set temperature. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/flawed-but-interesting-logic/783947.md?page=5)