# Floridopers: The Wilma Watch Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [October 18, 2005, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734 "2005-10-18T12:18:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![dotchan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9d8465/32.png) [@dotchan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dotchan)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/61 "2005-10-19T17:10:08Z")
Well, at least all the trees backyard were cut down last year. I wonder if Mom has asked someone to check the roof yet - we lost some shingles each time a hurricane went through central Florida, and sprung a new leak. ---
**Author:** ![partlycloudy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/partlycloudy/32/3114_2.png) [@partlycloudy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/partlycloudy)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/62 "2005-10-19T18:06:18Z")
Holy moly! Cat 5! Looks like the renovations to the Keys house are going to be put on hold. I _told_ them to wait til after hurricane season! Decent news from the NHC: > [@](#): > > WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM > POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. > MOST LIKELY…THE SMALL EYE WILL COLLAPSE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT > WEAKENING OR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. [Here](http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/wxstatement.php?t=AFD&m=10&d=19&y=2005&l=TBW) is a link to the area forecast discussion for Tampa (see the drop down list for other locations), which has this to say: > [@](#): > > IF THE CURRENT FORECASTED TRACK HOLDS…TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE > FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH… > THOUGH COULD CERTAINLY SEE TS-FORCE GUSTS MAINLY IN RAIN BANDS ACROSS > THE NORTH AS WELL. ---
**Author:** ![ladyfoxfyre](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ad7895/32.png) [@ladyfoxfyre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ladyfoxfyre)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/63 "2005-10-19T18:07:56Z")
> [@Carm6773](#): > > So turn it into a drinking game. Take a shot everytime you hear it. Eventually, you’ll _want_ them to say it. 😃 My god. I know what I’m doing this weekend… -foxy ---
**Author:** ![ladyfoxfyre](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ad7895/32.png) [@ladyfoxfyre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ladyfoxfyre)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/64 "2005-10-19T18:09:13Z")
> [@bouv](#): > > _You_ have plans? Honey, _you were my plans_. Sheesh. Ungrateful men. -foxy ---
**Author:** ![Kythereia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e8c25b/32.png) [@Kythereia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kythereia)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/65 "2005-10-19T18:20:49Z")
What the heck? What did Florida do this time? ---
**Author:** ![plnnr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7ea924/32.png) [@plnnr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/plnnr)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/66 "2005-10-19T18:25:33Z")
My wife and I have an anniversary trip scheduled for Tampa 10/28 through 10/31 (with a wicked costume party right in the middle). I called today to ask for trip cancellation insurance and was actually laughed at (which was exactly the response I expected, but I was hoping against hope). ---
**Author:** ![partlycloudy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/partlycloudy/32/3114_2.png) [@partlycloudy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/partlycloudy)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/67 "2005-10-19T18:33:20Z")
Tiny little eye, and it appears to have just made a loop (aka: trochoidal oscillations)! [Good graphic](http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html) - I think this graphic is live, so check it out while you can. Also wanted to point out - we have to look at the “cone” of probability, not just the line. Looking at my homeland & the places I love engulfed in that cone is far from comforting right now. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![bouv](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bc8723/32.png) [@bouv](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bouv)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/68 "2005-10-19T18:43:40Z")
I awtched some weather channel today, and it seems like if it hits the Tampa area that it will do so Sunday morning. Hmm…the odds of my plane getting all fucked up are increasing. ---
**Author:** ![Poonther](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Poonther](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Poonther)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/69 "2005-10-19T19:17:02Z")
Here’s the latest computer[model maps](http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html) Way too early to say it’s a trend, sometimes the models do odd things on just one or two runs, but this is the first significant deviation in Wilma’s path I’ve seen in the past 48 hours. While the yellow line, BAMM isn’t a very good model to follow, the red line, GDFL has perfomed very well this year including forecasting Rita and Katrina. Also notice that the blue line NOGAPS is the most northerly track, but it’s also the oldest run model. Stay tuned… ---
**Author:** ![ivylass](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/9de053/32.png) [@ivylass](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivylass)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/70 "2005-10-19T20:21:31Z")
> [@Poonther](#): > > My BIL/SIL live in Clermont and have the biggest generator I’ve ever seen in my life. That’s right next door! The GDFL track doesn’t forecast very far, does it? ---
**Author:** ![ladybug](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/46a35a/32.png) [@ladybug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ladybug)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/71 "2005-10-19T21:11:45Z")
We’re officially on an accelerated schedule at work. Fortunately I’ve met all of my deadlines so I can help my coworkers with their assignments. Frances shut us down for a week last year, so we’re anticipating that this storm will do the same. This is the first time my mom has encouraged me _not_ to evacuate for a storm. It might get closer to her in Hernando than it does to me in West Palm! I’m thinking my uncle’s flight out of Tampa this weekend might be cancelled. ---
**Author:** ![partlycloudy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/partlycloudy/32/3114_2.png) [@partlycloudy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/partlycloudy)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/72 "2005-10-19T21:37:27Z")
> [@ivylass](#): > > That’s right next door! > > The GDFL track doesn’t forecast very far, does it? It forecasts for the same amount of time, but doesn’t forecast Wilma moving as fast, apparently. Each of those little white blocks marks the forecast position every 24 hours. ---
**Author:** ![partlycloudy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/partlycloudy/32/3114_2.png) [@partlycloudy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/partlycloudy)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/73 "2005-10-19T21:48:54Z")
Ack, posted too soon! The GFDL had forecast earlier that in 5 days the storm would be near Maine. Now it’s got it near Cuba! That’s quite a shift! According to the NHC discussion, whatever the Low (now near the Great Lakes region) does will help determine which way Wilma goes. The farther east the hurricane moves, the more likely she is to miss “connection” with this low. Then what? Who knows?! There’s still a LOT of room for error here. ---
**Author:** ![ladyfoxfyre](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ad7895/32.png) [@ladyfoxfyre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ladyfoxfyre)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2005, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/74 "2005-10-20T04:09:44Z")
I’m waiting to see how close to Tampa Bay it’s going to get. The weather channel chart shows it basically going right up the bay. My dad wants me to leave if they start discussing evacuations at all, but we won’t really know anything until Friday or Saturday. Sigh. Hurry up and wait. -foxy ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2005, 7:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/75 "2005-10-20T07:00:00Z")
> [@rocking chair](#): > > so far i haven’t heard any reports using fred’s scream for “wilma!!!” i’m expecting to hear it several times before this is over. (To the tune of the Flintstones theme song) Wilma! Deadly Wilma! She’s the biggest storm in history! From the eastern ocean, She’s gonna tear down every tree. That’s right, flood that family down the street! Through the courtesy of increased heat. When you’re down with Wilma, You’d better wear your flannel. The Weather Channel Will have a gay old time! ---
**Author:** ![ivylass](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/9de053/32.png) [@ivylass](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivylass)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2005, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/76 "2005-10-20T11:51:39Z")
Latest advisory has it slowing down and not hitting Florida until Sunday. ---
**Author:** ![SanibelMan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e4f/32.png) [@SanibelMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SanibelMan)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2005, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/77 "2005-10-20T12:46:00Z")
My parents (on Sanibel) were supposed to fly to Oregon on Saturday and spend a week with my aunt and uncle on the coast. Now they’ve got two hotel reservations - one across the causeway and one in Tampa. It was three of four days before they were allowed back on the island after Charley last year, and they came close to moving. Maybe this will be the one that drives them back north permanently, if it’s as bad as it looks. Latest computer models take it through the Keys, but the forecast track still puts landfall just south of Marco Island and Naples. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2005, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/78 "2005-10-20T15:19:19Z")
We won’t have a real idea on this one until after it turns, maybe some time on Saturday morning. Even then it will be iffy, but we’ll know what the intial turn was and where the prevailing weather should take it from there. ---
**Author:** ![partlycloudy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/partlycloudy/32/3114_2.png) [@partlycloudy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/partlycloudy)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2005, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/79 "2005-10-20T15:56:03Z")
The NHC is expecting Wilma to continue WNW then NW over the next 24 hours, then if/when she turns, we should get a better idea of where she’ll be going. I keep hearing that the longer it takes her to turn, the more likely she is to make landfall farther north (say, Tampa - AHH!). By this time, she should definitely be moving faster. OTOH, Monroe County (the Keys) is delaying mandatory evac for residents another 24 hours. It was supposed to be issued today. From the NHC discussion at 11am, the models show slower recurvature and acceleration (the GFDL has straightened back out as of last night), and the threat is still focused from Central Fl to the Keys. They’re predicting that once this eyewall replacement cycle is done, she may re-strengthen to Cat 5 before hitting the Yucatan (by tomorrow afternoon). If she’s moving slower over the Yucatan, the interaction with land should cause her to weaken significantly for landfall in Florida. Let’s hope so. I hate to think of the people on the Yucatan peninsula that may have to have to deal with a Cat 5 hurricane. I hope they’re evacuating safely there. They’ve had plenty of time, that’s for sure. You can really see the eyewall replacement cycle going on if you look at the [IR images on NOAA’s website](http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html) (real-time, again). Pretty cool. ---
**Author:** ![Poonther](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Poonther](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Poonther)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2005, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734/80 "2005-10-20T16:24:52Z")
[Here’s the current thinking on where they THINK Wilma will go](http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=z&m=24). Notice it’s the 72hr (3 days) and 96hr (4 day) positions. Looks to be going in as Cat 3 (Everglades City area) and out as a Cat 1 (Stuart area.) Also this map shows the wind fields associated w/her. There’s a guide to click to the left to explain what they are showing. [All the models except one](http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=24) show her going under the Big Lake. Looks like the LBAR model has it out for **Shibb** and **Ivylass**. Really **ladyfoxfyre** TWC has Wilma going up Tampa Bay? That’s odd… I hope my big haired Jersey MIL in WPB doesn’t break one of her long glamour nails while having to hang on to the stucco of her house. 😃 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/floridopers-the-wilma-watch-thread/326734.md?page=5)