# Following the second wave (or not) in the US as the States open up **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [May 20, 2020, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191 "2020-05-20T16:12:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2020, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/181 "2020-06-30T19:17:24Z")
There were a bunch of lawsuits about the closing filed by a Republican lawyer and a lot of pressure to reopen, resulting in the state letting reopening be determined on a county by county basis. Which seemed reasonable at the time since the impacts varied a lot, but which was probably a mistake. Especially since different rules in neighboring counties is confusing. Cases in my county are increasing, which might be from the protests, but not by an unreasonable amount. I expect a rapid reversal in some places, like we’ve already seen in Imperial county. Reacting to the surge versus resisting the right measures is going to make a big difference. I don’t think the LA situation can be blamed on Republicans - more likely young people feeling the worst was over. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2020, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/182 "2020-06-30T19:44:31Z")
I don’t disagree that it’s probably more than just republicans who are defying calls for masks and social distancing, but they’re the most visible targets because they’ve been the loudest, most obnoxious ones who aren’t complying. We could probably blame the anti-police protesters, too, though. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/183 "2020-07-01T00:09:36Z")
has anyone noticed the numbers don’t jive on Worldmeter? They’re supposed to rule at midnight GMT per their website. I always take my numbers after that time. They shouldn’t change after that. “the total deaths” numbers for the US have jumped up the next day but the daily death counts don’t. It happened last week but New Jersey changed their methodology and added almost 2000 additional deaths so the count change made sense. ---
**Author:** ![needscoffee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/needscoffee/32/1076_2.png) [@needscoffee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/needscoffee)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/184 "2020-07-01T00:41:26Z")
> [@"Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > [https://www.fox26houston.com/news/Houston-protesters-starting-to-test-positive-for-COVID-19](https://www.fox26houston.com/news/Houston-protesters-starting-to-test-positive-for-COVID-19) > > Protesters who took over Houston streets nearly two weeks ago are now starting to test positive for COVID-19. > > Protesters are starting to test positive for coronavirus. Actually that’s crappy, sensationalist journalism. Nothing in that article says that protesters are getting CV-19 at a higher rate than the rest of the population. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/185 "2020-07-01T02:03:32Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > anyone noticed the numbers don’t jive on Worldmeter? I’ve noticed that for several weeks, all through May and June and at least part of April, their US count is consistently over 1000 (1500ish?) deaths higher than John Hopkins’ is. Today the gap is 2800. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/186 "2020-07-01T02:15:57Z")
I made screen shots of it at about 7pm today and clicked on yesterday and 2 days ago. THOSE numbers have changed. Those numbers shouldn’t change. I wonder if they’ve been hacked. I collected 3 months worth of data that I no longer trust. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/187 "2020-07-01T02:27:39Z")
Jurisdictions (states) do change their past numbers, I think, as they clean up their data. This is not unusual. I don’t think you need to go to the extreme of “hacked” for an explanation. ---
**Author:** ![needscoffee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/needscoffee/32/1076_2.png) [@needscoffee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/needscoffee)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/188 "2020-07-01T02:34:57Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Jurisdictions (states) do change their past numbers, I think, as they clean up their data. This is not unusual. I don’t think you need to go to the extreme of “hacked” for an explanation This exactly. My state puts out daily bulletins and right now they’re going back over the data, un-classifying deaths if CV-19 was present but not the true cause of death, etc. They are very transparent about what’s being updated and why, and they list how many were reclassified and why. Also, some states report sporadically, some report weekly, etc. It’s better to compare numbers intra-state than inter-state. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/189 "2020-07-01T03:18:52Z")
I just went through the states one by one and NY added about 600 to their daily number from about 7 pm… So that explains today. When producing data it’s important that methodology be consistent if you want to use the data for trends. It would explain worldmeter’s numbers because the total number jumps up but the daily number is more in line with what happened. Unfortunately the daily number drops off their site and shows up again later. Because of that I’ve been using the total number on a daily basis and subtracting yesterday’s total to get the daily number. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/190 "2020-07-01T04:10:05Z")
But you’re talking about the death rate, not the rate of new cases. Masks and reopening guidelines should be affecting new case rate, not death rate. Unless masks decrease the infectious dose and maybe viral load at the beginning of an infection so that, maybe, the body can fight it off. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/191 "2020-07-01T04:14:16Z")
> [@RealityCheck71](#): > > The same California with mandatory mask laws, strict reopening guidelines and a fairly compliant population? To clarify, I was replying to RealityCheck71 regarding what’s in the quote. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/192 "2020-07-01T16:15:40Z")
> [@Tfletch1](#): > > But you’re talking about the death rate, not the rate of new cases. Masks and reopening guidelines should be affecting new case rate, not death rate. The death rate is the only absolute measure. New case rate is a meaningless number. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/193 "2020-07-01T16:25:13Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > The death rate is the only absolute measure. New case rate is a meaningless number. Permanent injury is that easily shoved aside? Not by me, nor by anyone else who isn’t trying to downplay this pandemic. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/194 "2020-07-01T16:34:49Z")
Death rate is not an absolute, as cases that were not classified as Covid deaths are, and others that were classified as Covid deaths are not. Case rate affects death rate. There is a couple week lag, but if you see an uptick in cases, you are going to see an uptick in deaths. If all you look at is the death rate, then all you are doing is counting the dead. By looking at the case rate, then maybe you can do something to prevent the number of dead from being so high. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/195 "2020-07-01T16:40:36Z")
“Death rate” means different things to different people. Is that “Deaths per thousand population”, or “deaths per thousand confirmed cases”? The former, at least measured locally, tells me my own risk of dying. The latter tells me something else that’s heavily muddied by how much testing is being done to whom. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/196 "2020-07-01T16:46:19Z")
Under what circumstances are people tested for Covid-19 after they die? If such testing takes place, are there any statistics as to what the rate may be? ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/197 "2020-07-01T16:48:08Z")
Do you have permanent injury numbers? Rhetorically asked, because of course you don’t. Nobody does. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/198 "2020-07-01T16:56:40Z")
> **[Coronavirus: Kidney Damage Caused by COVID-19](https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-kidney-damage-caused-by-covid19)** > > Kidney injury is seen in people with COVID-19. How and why does this happen? A kidney expert discusses possible explanations. > **[Some patients who survive COVID-19 may suffer lasting lung damage](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-some-patients-may-suffer-lasting-lung-damage)** > > Results from a study in China suggest that some COVID-19 patients will be left with long-term lung problems. > **[How COVID-19 May Damage Your Heart](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-covid-19-may-damage-your-heart)** > > Typically considered a threat to the lungs, COVID-19 also presents a significant threat to heart health, according to recently published research. > **[What We Know About the Long-Term Effects of COVID-19](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-we-know-about-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19)** > > COVID-19 can be a severe illness, especially in people over 60 years of age or those with chronic diseases like diabetes and cardiovascular issues. I’m sorry I couldn’t find any links from FoxNews for you. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/199 "2020-07-01T17:22:22Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > The death rate is the only absolute measure. New case rate is a meaningless number. Not directly. If you want to look at the efficacy of masks, you have to look at how many people are infected. Death rate has other very important variables like age and health of the patients and the quality of treatment. For example, new cases are increasing rapidly that cannot be attributed to increased access to testing. The new cases are younger people and we have better treatment. Therefore, the death rate has been significantly lower than at the beginning of pandemic. Even if cases underestimate the number of people infected, it has to be a better parameter than death rate in determining whether or not masks, social distancing works. The only way masks/distancing could directly affect death rate is if they are lowering the dose of virus which could affect the degree of illness. We have no information on that right now. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2020, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/200 "2020-07-01T17:34:44Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > “Death rate” means different things to different people. Is that “Deaths per thousand population”, or “deaths per thousand confirmed cases”? > > The former, at least measured locally, tells me my own risk of dying. As of a couple of weeks ago; and dependent on risk factors which you may or may not know that you have. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191.md?page=11)