# Following the second wave (or not) in the US as the States open up **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [May 20, 2020, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191 "2020-05-20T16:12:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/221 "2020-07-03T15:06:18Z")
And limitations of the capacity of our healthcare system aside as well. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/222 "2020-07-03T16:28:28Z")
> [@needscoffee](#): > > They’re not as effective as you imply. They must be given at exactly the right point or they do no good, and even then, they may not help. Which drug(s) are you referring to? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/223 "2020-07-03T16:36:47Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > And limitations of the capacity of our healthcare system aside as well. We have more [ICU units per capita than any other country](https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/03/12/the-countries-with-the-most-critical-care-beds-per-capita-infographic/#a34eb4a7f864) We also have a medical transportation system that’s better than any other country. [We have the largest fleet of commercial helicopters in the world.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/778282/commercial-helicopters-fleet-size-country/) I’ve watched them scrape someone off a highway in front of a hospital and fly them to another hospital based on the care they needed. We have more bed space in the world and the ability to shuffle patients around if an area of hospitals run out of ICU space. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/224 "2020-07-03T16:42:34Z")
Oh, so we have enough medical capacity to take care of everyone during a pandemic, so much so that we don’t need to do much to mitigate its spread? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/225 "2020-07-03T17:00:58Z")
I"m getting this from another board I frequent. I have suggested to the main proponent there (who is from Florida) that they change the Tourism Florida motto to: “Come on down! Plenty of ICU beds for everyone!” Right… lots of hospital space and ICU beds. Until there isn’t. And of course, everyone that goes to hospital and subsequently recovers is just back to 100% health, just like before. Right? RIGHT? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/226 "2020-07-03T17:19:58Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > Oh, so we have enough medical capacity to take care of everyone during a pandemic, so much so that we don’t need to do much to mitigate its spread? And you think this is a real question in response to what I said? ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/227 "2020-07-03T17:25:59Z")
You were boasting as to our medical capacity. Unless you are saying that it is enough to deal with the pandemic with little to no effort put towards mitigating its spread, then I have no idea why what you said has any relevance whatsoever. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/228 "2020-07-03T17:43:00Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > I"m getting this from another board I frequent. I have suggested to the main proponent there (who is from Florida) that they change the Tourism Florida motto to: > > “Come on down! Plenty of ICU beds for everyone!” You might consider taking your rant back to the board from whence it came. in the mean time, the US has 6 times the ICU capacity as the UK and a massive transportation infrastructure to back it up. The difference is that we were able to support NYC with a medical ship, mobile care units and transportation to ICU’s in surrounding states. AFAIK we never even tapped into the Coast Guard helicopter rescue fleet on the East Coast. It was all commercial aircraft. It was just a couple of years ago that the flu thoroughly [strained the UK health system.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/01/winter-flu-plunges-hospitals-chaos-aes-run-space/) ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/229 "2020-07-03T17:46:25Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I think that’s really what I’ve been trying to emphasize. Yes, the death rate might be just somewhat worse than a bad flu - among all cases. I doubt it. The same error we’re talking about with Covid happens with the flu. Lack of testing falsely increases death rate. Not everyone gets tested for the flu even if they go to the doctor. In fact, earlier in the pandemic there are significant amounts of “flu-like” and “pneumonia” cases that weren’t tested for covid. In Korea where testing is widespread, the death rate looks to be around 2%. The seasonal flu is around 0.1%. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/230 "2020-07-03T17:58:21Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > You were boasting as to our medical capacity. Unless you are saying that it is enough to deal with the pandemic with little to no effort put towards mitigating its spread, then I have no idea why what you said has any relevance whatsoever. I was stating fact to your uninformed assessment of the capacity of the healthcare system in the US. We have the greatest capacity of ICU units in the world and the ability to move people as necessary to utilize that capacity. We didn’t begin to tap into the resources available commercially and there are military hospitals and transportation on top of that. We’ve done massive economic damage with shelter in place efforts so don’t act like we haven’t put a good faith effort into mitigation. In answer to that you tried to support your misguided opinion with a nonsense question. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/231 "2020-07-03T18:07:43Z")
Unless you are saying that we can treat all potential Covid patients simultaneously, then _I_ am not the one has an uninformed assessment of the capacity of the healthcare system of the US. Some of us did put good faith effort into mitigation, others stormed their state capitals in protest over our mitigation efforts. Even as cases are rising, and ICUs are filling up, we are talking about continuing to open up and stop taking mitigation measures. If your point is not that we don’t need to worry about spread because we can take care of all the sick people, then what point were you trying to make? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/232 "2020-07-03T18:17:24Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > in the mean time, the US has 6 times the ICU capacity as the UK and a massive transportation infrastructure to back it up. The difference is that we were able to support NYC with a medical ship, mobile care units and transportation to ICU’s in surrounding states. AFAIK we never even tapped into the Coast Guard helicopter rescue fleet on the East Coast. It was all commercial aircraft. > > It was just a couple of years ago that the flu thoroughly [strained the UK health system.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/01/winter-flu-plunges-hospitals-chaos-aes-run-space/) I think this is marvelous that the US has such great capacity. Certainly I do not deny this is true. It’s possible… just possible mind you… that it might be a good idea to PREVENT people from getting Covid-19. Here’s a crazy thought… let’s try making sure that as few people as possible get the disease, rather than complacently implying that we don’t’ need to worry because there is lots of hospital capacity (at the moment). Because that it what it seems to me you are doing. ---
**Author:** ![casdave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c6cbf5/32.png) [@casdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/casdave)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/233 "2020-07-03T18:46:54Z")
I think the complacency that we see is that the death rate has not risen, in fact it has tended to decline. Of course the huge increase in positive tests is around 2 weeks old, and continues upwards, deaths tend to follow three to four weeks after the infection - however if testing has indeed upscaled massively it would likely mean that the delay between positive test and fatality will be longer. In other words, if there is going to be an increase, it won’t be for another week at least, possible two weeks by which time the surge of infections might, just might be levelling off. Better treatment regimes at also likely to reduce the percentage of deaths and also to keep people alive longer before finally succumbing. It’s this complacency and inability/unwillingness to connect past events with future outcomes that has led to states opening too soon. I wonder how many waves it will take before the complacent are either dead, infected or start to understand that this virus does not react to politics, and instead is only controlled through human behaviour and logic. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/234 "2020-07-03T19:41:31Z")
In your rush to post more optimism, you missed my point entirely. I don’t disagree with you that there’s an under-count or an error rate with all infectious disease - COVID-19’s no different. What makes COVID-19 different is that there is presumably absolutely no immunity for about 90-95% of the population. We’re not even sure about the long-term immunity of the 5-10% who’ve acquired it, but I’ll save that for another discussion and for now assume that it’s semi-permanent. What we know about COVID-19 is that there’s no herd immunity, it’s highly infectious, and it frequently forces patients by the thousands to use critical healthcare resources. My point, in case you missed it, was that while the overall fatality rate might possibly be around .75-1% (that’s still being debated), the fatality rate could be quite a bit higher in places where outbreaks are overwhelming the system. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/235 "2020-07-03T19:59:46Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > In your rush to post more optimism, you missed my point entirely. I definitely misunderstood your point and you misunderstood mine. I was saying that the death rate for covid is no more underestimated than any other disease. Therefore, it really is around 10X more deadly than the flu without including overwhelmed systems or clusters of elderly people. The death rate in San Antonio has been around 2% even when cases were low. We’re approaching capacity so that may start going up. No optimism on my part at all. ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/236 "2020-07-03T20:04:44Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > What makes COVID-19 different is that there is presumably absolutely no immunity for about 90-95% of the population Well, that’s “presumably” true for a novel virus to an extent but I’ve read a couple things that suggest exposure to other coronaviruses may give some immunity. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/237 "2020-07-03T20:08:26Z")
I’ve read that, too, but the evidence on that is scant at best. What we do know is that the virus is crushing the health systems of some cities, and it is likely to keep doing this unless we - and I mean ordinary people - start taking this thing more seriously. Remember, if your local hospitals over overflowing with coronavirus patients, not only can you not be treated for coronavirus; you can’t get treated for cancer, organ failure, stroke, trauma, or other illnesses or injuries. Thus, the situation makes other treatable diseases and conditions a bit more dangerous and deadlier by default. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/238 "2020-07-03T20:14:29Z")
It makes occupations more dangerous as well. Would you like to be doing construction, with the knowledge that there are no free hospital beds for 100 miles? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/239 "2020-07-03T20:16:30Z")
Not to mention, would you like to be a doctor or nurse going to work knowing that you’re going to be breathing air and working in an environment that has high concentrations of the virus. It’s not just whether you come into contact with an infectious virus; contagion is also about the amount of virus that’s in the air. “The dose makes the poison.” ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2020, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/240 "2020-07-03T20:23:42Z")
From March 2 to April 27, it took 56 days for the US to go from 100 cases to 1,000,000 cases. From April 27 to June 7, it took 41 days for the US to to from 1,000,000 cases to 2,000,000 cases. From June 7 to ?? it will take the US ?? days to go from 2,000,000 cases to 3,000,000 cases. My guess for the above is July 7 and 30 days. I will also hazard a guess that it will take approximately 21 more days to hit 4,000,000 cases, around the end of July. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191.md?page=13)