# Following the second wave (or not) in the US as the States open up **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [May 20, 2020, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191 "2020-05-20T16:12:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Monocracy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monocracy/32/4493_2.png) [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2020, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/21 "2020-05-21T18:12:59Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Yeah, but that’s Denmark which, IIRC has about 5 million people, a huge landmass, and border controls. Imagine West Virginia with border controls. It’s no wonder that they can control the spread. > > You just cannot extrapolate that to a Florida or a Texas with no border controls so that sick New Yorkers can flock there for a beach vacation. Denmark is actually fairly dense compared with other European nations. It is more dense than all but eight U.S. States (it fits between FL and PA). West Virginia is 50% larger and has 1/3 the population of Denmark. You are correct about the borders. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2020, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/22 "2020-05-21T18:31:17Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > After Georgia’s release of lockdown, I was surprised to see that there was not a significant increase of covid cases. I was less surprised to see that they have been [accused of falsifying the data on the number of cases](https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/medical-advances/498521-georgia-department-of-health-under-fire-for). > > Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas saw a [rise in cases](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/498406-texas-north-carolina-arizona-see-rising-cases-as-they-reopen) after they reopened. > > [Maryland Reports Largest Rise Yet In Coronavirus Cases 4 Days After Reopening](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/19/858837518/maryland-reports-largest-rise-yet-in-coronavirus-cases-4-days-after-reopening) One of the problems here is that it’s unclear how long of a delay there should be when attributing a rise in cases to reopening. When Georgia reopened there were dire predictions of an increase in cases. When that failed to materialize, it was said that of course, [that’s because it takes weeks before the opening manifests itself in an increase in test results](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/is-reopening-safe-after-covid-19-we-wont-know-for-weeks/611743/). OK, but now we’re seeing an increase 4 days after reopening attributed to the reopening. In sum, unless there’s some agreement as to how long the duration would be for a reopening-caused spike, it’s very difficult to make much of the data. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2020, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/23 "2020-05-21T19:31:50Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > One of the problems here is that it’s unclear how long of a delay there should be when attributing a rise in cases to reopening. > > When Georgia reopened there were dire predictions of an increase in cases. When that failed to materialize, it was said that of course, [that’s because it takes weeks before the opening manifests itself in an increase in test results](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/is-reopening-safe-after-covid-19-we-wont-know-for-weeks/611743/). OK, but now we’re seeing an increase 4 days after reopening attributed to the reopening. > > In sum, unless there’s some agreement as to how long the duration would be for a reopening-caused spike, it’s very difficult to make much of the data. It’s been over 3 weeks. Let’s say you’re right. Putting aside the claims of false data and errors that Georgia supposedly cleaned up. I can’t really find reliable numbers for how they’re doing right now. But without any of that, why do you think that Georgia is seeing a decrease (or not an increase?) in cases after they reopened? ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2020, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/24 "2020-05-21T19:54:34Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > I blame some in the media for this. Of course you will have an increase in new cases after you reopen!!! That would be true if we waited another six months or another year. > > This is almost like 1984. Nobody said that the virus would be over and then we would go out. We were “flattening the curve” so that our hospitals were not swamped. Once we got that under control, it was all but stated that yes, for a long damned time people will continue to get sick and continue to die from this thing. > > But now these twats in the media are acting like this was totally unexpected and that nobody should be reopening because new cases are rising. They were always going to. > [@UltraVires](#): > > Yeah, but you know as well as I do that there is reporting and there is “reporting.” These hacks are in it for the shock value and not for simple conveyance of news. Wouldn’t an ethical journalist include that this was to be expected in any reopening, whether today or six months from now? **Moderator Note** These are effectively political and professional jabs, which aren’t permitted in this forum. Dial it back, especially the use of words like “twat.” Colibri QZ Moderator ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2020, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/25 "2020-05-21T20:03:17Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > It’s been over 3 weeks. Let’s say you’re right. Putting aside the claims of false data and errors that Georgia supposedly cleaned up. I can’t really find reliable numbers for how they’re doing right now. > > But without any of that, why do you think that Georgia is seeing a decrease (or not an increase?) in cases after they reopened? I’m not asserting that Georgia is actually seeing a decrease. Someone did earlier, but that’s not my claim or central to my point. My point is that since there is apparently uncertainty as to how long after a state reopens there would be an expected spike in infections, it’s very difficult to test the theory that there should be a spike. What I pointing to was the article - written at a time when the Georgia results were being accepted at face value, and quoting various experts - which said that any spike wouldn’t manifest itself for several weeks. Contrast to your linked article which was clearly associating a spike 4 days after reopening with that reopening. Regardless of whether the drop in Georgia infections was genuine or not, the evidence that the reopening-spike lag is a moving target remains. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2020, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/26 "2020-05-21T20:26:33Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > My point is that since there is apparently uncertainty as to how long after a state reopens there would be an expected spike in infections, it’s very difficult to test the theory that there should be a spike. I understand. So let’s say that there wasn’t a spike in Georgia for discussion sake. What could account for that in particular in Georgia? Would you extrapolate that finding to other places? ---
**Author:** ![engineer\_comp\_geek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/engineer_comp_geek/32/504_2.png) [@engineer\_comp\_geek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/engineer_comp_geek)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2020, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/27 "2020-05-21T20:27:28Z")
**Moderator Note** > [@UltraVires](#): > > twats in the media Let’s not refer to anyone as a “twat” or any other vulgar synonym for a woman’s genitals outside of the Pit, please. ---
**Author:** ![nelliebly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nelliebly/32/5422_2.png) [@nelliebly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nelliebly)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2020, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/28 "2020-05-21T20:28:18Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Yeah, but that’s Denmark which, IIRC has about 5 million people, a huge landmass, and border controls. Imagine West Virginia with border controls. It’s no wonder that they can control the spread. > > You just cannot extrapolate that to a Florida or a Texas with no border controls so that sick New Yorkers can flock there for a beach vacation. You might want to choose a different example. While your population figure is close, the “huge landmass” is not. Population density is much higher in Denmark than West Virginia, or, for that matter, Sweden. Denmark: population 5.8 million 347 people/sq. mile W. Virginia: population 1.7 million 75 people/sq. mile Sweden: population 10 million 64 people/sq. mile ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2020, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/29 "2020-05-21T20:37:33Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > I understand. So let’s say that there wasn’t a spike in Georgia for discussion sake. What could account for that in particular in Georgia? Would you extrapolate that finding to other places? I don’t know the answer to either of these questions. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2020, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/30 "2020-05-21T21:19:29Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > **Moderator Note** > > These are effectively political and professional jabs, which aren’t permitted in this forum. Dial it back, especially the use of words like “twat.” > > Colibri > QZ Moderator > [@engineer\_comp\_geek](#): > > **Moderator Note** > > Let’s not refer to anyone as a “twat” or any other vulgar synonym for a woman’s genitals outside of the Pit, please. Points both well taken. I did not think of the synonym for female genitalia when I said it. I apologize for that word’s use. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2020, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/31 "2020-05-21T22:07:38Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I don’t know the answer to either of these questions. Thanks for the candor, but that’s the point of the exercise. It’s to determine what’s working and what’s not working by looking at the infection rates to determine if what’s working can be applied to other States. I have some guesses about Georgia from watching the opening when it happened. But I’m not from Georgia, so I’d be interested to know if anyone has more knowledge about how the reopening went. Because Georgia opened so early, people were pretty wary. The mayor of Atlanta [told people](https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/494043-atlanta-mayor-urges-residents-to-stay-at-home-as-governor-reopens-state) to stay home. 120 restaurants [decided not to open](https://www.newsweek.com/restaurant-owners-refuse-reopen-georgia-1500620). Only about 12 [restaurants opened](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/04/27/georgia-restaurants-opened-their-doors-today---heres-how-it-went/). Because the bulk of the restaurant businesses didn’t open right away, the change in infection rates might not have shown the increase you’d expect with people getting together. I don’t have much more information about the other businesses. It would be interesting to see if their economy starts to boom. That would require more explanation as to why their economy picked up without the increase in cases, if that’s true. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2020, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/32 "2020-05-21T23:44:14Z")
There’s a lot of weird things to wonder about. Like, why isn’t reckless Florida not suffering magnitudes more than pretty proactive California? [California v Florida deaths/million](https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/states-normalized.html?chart=states-normalized&highlight=Florida&show=highlight-only&y=fixed&scale=log&data=deaths&extra=California#states-normalized) ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2020, 9:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/33 "2020-05-22T09:48:49Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > There’s a lot of weird things to wonder about. Like, why isn’t reckless Florida not suffering magnitudes more than pretty proactive California? > [California v Florida deaths/million](https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/states-normalized.html?chart=states-normalized&highlight=Florida&show=highlight-only&y=fixed&scale=log&data=deaths&extra=California#states-normalized) Wonders never cease. My holiday is over. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2020, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/34 "2020-05-22T14:11:51Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > Because Georgia opened so early, people were pretty wary. The mayor of Atlanta [told people](https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/494043-atlanta-mayor-urges-residents-to-stay-at-home-as-governor-reopens-state) to stay home. 120 restaurants [decided not to open](https://www.newsweek.com/restaurant-owners-refuse-reopen-georgia-1500620). Only about 12 [restaurants opened](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/04/27/georgia-restaurants-opened-their-doors-today---heres-how-it-went/). > > Because the bulk of the restaurant businesses didn’t open right away, the change in infection rates might not have shown the increase you’d expect with people getting together. I saw a bit of confirmation that my theory might have played out to some extent. In this [youtube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2v6TKjpytRk) of Morning Joe, Steve Rattner says that Georgians started to slowly leave their homes, but it was not anywhere near back to normal levels. The graph is much more gradual and doesn’t get anywhere near how it was before. It actually didn’t move all that much higher from pre-lockdown levels. In addition, on another graph, the effects of this on consumer spending was evident. Spending was at a bottom ebb right before the stimulus checks, then slightly going up after the stimulus checks went out, but not a significant increase after that. Also, job openings are only slightly higher after the lockdowns were lifted. The act of lifting the lockdowns isn’t going to be indicative of a bigger spread of infection until people actually do go out again. At the same time, the economy won’t start recovering until people feel comfortable in spending more money. Except for the stimulus money, people haven’t increased their spending from lockdown levels. ---
**Author:** ![casdave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c6cbf5/32.png) [@casdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/casdave)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2020, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/35 "2020-05-22T14:17:34Z")
If cases begin to rise again I do not see it as a second wave, but only because the initial wave of infection and death is far from over. To have a second wave it seems to me you would first have to be in a position where it was not only under control, but very much declining. What little decline there has been is largely attributable to just two states, take those out and you still have a full on pandemic. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2020, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/36 "2020-05-22T14:40:00Z")
I know you like your research, Roo. There are a number of groups putting together mobility reports. Here’s Google’s: > **[COVID-19 Community Mobility Report](https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/)** > > See how your community moved differently due to COVID-19 ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2020, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/37 "2020-05-22T14:50:58Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > I saw a bit of confirmation that my theory might have played out to some extent. In this [youtube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2v6TKjpytRk) of Morning Joe, Steve Rattner says that Georgians started to slowly leave their homes, but it was not anywhere near back to normal levels. The graph is much more gradual and doesn’t get anywhere near how it was before. It actually didn’t move all that much higher from pre-lockdown levels. I meant that it didn’t move much higher than lockdown levels, not pre-lockdown levels. > [@casdave](#): > > What little decline there has been is largely attributable to just two states, take those out and you still have a full on pandemic. Which two states? > [@CarnalK](#): > > I know you like your research, Roo. There are a number of groups putting together mobility reports. Here’s Google’s: > [COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports](https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/) I’ve seen those, thanks. ---
**Author:** ![casdave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c6cbf5/32.png) [@casdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/casdave)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2020, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/38 "2020-05-22T15:08:32Z")
> [@](#): > > Which two states? New York and New Jersey - these seem to be the only ones that have got largely over the first wave after horrendous figures. Of the other states that have currrently low rates of infection and death, nearly all of those have not had that much of a pandemic in the first place, but… There is a large middle ground of states where the situation is just bumping along - according to NY times and a handful where they are increasing - around 32 states. That is reflected in the number of new cases across the US as a whole, which appears to be declining slowly but actually masks the fact that most of that decline in in a small number of states. [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html) ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2020, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/39 "2020-05-22T15:16:51Z")
Oh. Well if you look at the Georgia report, there’s definitely upward movement in Retail/Recreation which includes restaurants. Still down 20% from the baseline but up a lot since April 24th. Grocery/pharmacy never went down super bad but it’s basically at baseline now. Parks is now way above baseline - it flipped almost immediately. Workplace seems to be continuing a slow increase which started before the lockdown was lifted. > **[2020-05-16\_US\_Georgia\_Mobility\_Report\_en.pdf](https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-05-16_US_Georgia_Mobility_Report_en.pdf)** > > 1791.99 KB ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 6:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/40 "2020-05-26T06:35:47Z")
> [@casdave](#): > > If cases begin to rise again I do not see it as a second wave, but only because the initial wave of infection and death is far from over. > > To have a second wave it seems to me you would first have to be in a position where it was not only under control, but very much declining. What little decline there has been is largely attributable to just two states, take those out and you still have a full on pandemic. what little decline? It has declined significantly from peak. It’s gone from doubling every 2 days to doubling every 140 days. In that time a significant percentage of people will already have gotten the virus and we have improved treatment and testing. We are far from a full-on pandemic. The goal of stabilizing hospital care has been achieved. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191.md?page=3)