# Following the second wave (or not) in the US as the States open up **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [May 20, 2020, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191 "2020-05-20T16:12:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 25
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2020, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/481 "2020-07-30T17:56:40Z")
[www.worldometers.info](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) has a 252 for Florida today. Last 7 days 133 125 77 78 186 216 252 7 day average is 152.4. 7 day average per million is 7.09. Hospitals are being overrun: [Miami-Dade ICUs at 146% capacity with coronavirus patients, according to federal document](https://news.yahoo.com/miami-dade-ic-us-at-146-percent-capacity-with-coronavirus-patients-151222876.html) > Also on Wednesday, the state’s Agency for Health Care Administration reported that 51 hospitals across the state had no ICU capacity whatsoever. Nursing home case are rising alarmingly: [COVID is leaking into Florida nursing homes as regulators allow exceptions](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article244401817.html) > New infections among residents at long-term care facilities in Florida rose by 142% or 2,819 cases between July 1 and July 21, while the increase among staff rose 121% or 3,882 cases. I hope you are right that things won’t get much worse in Florida. I fear you are wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Monocracy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monocracy/32/4493_2.png) [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2020, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/482 "2020-07-30T18:20:37Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > I simply made the observation that their numbers had jumped up. No you didn’t “simply” make an observation. You accused other posters of political motivations or being drawn in by media hype. Here is your quote: > [@Magiver](#): > > Again, I keep track of each day’s totals. I’m not sure why you’re focusing on Florida and Texas. New Jersey is doing worse and that state ranks as the all time high so one would think a recurrence there was worth noting. Is there something about the Florida and Texas that bothers you? > > Is it political or is your response driven by media coverage? You can scroll up and look for yourself if you don’t believe me. We all told you that your data analyzation techniques were poor, New Jersey was nothing to worry about, and Florida and Texas were in bad shape. Now that you know that we were right and you were wrong, maybe you can take a look back at the things we were saying and learn from that. Considering your most current prediction for Florida, I think you still don’t understand the trends. ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2020, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/483 "2020-07-30T18:57:47Z")
Well, it’s not going to get better but it is a little weird to include today in your 7 day average. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2020, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/484 "2020-07-30T19:11:56Z")
How so? Using the seven most recent data points for the seven day average seems like a pretty easily defensible thing to do, especially when I’m being crystal clear about what I’m doing. I guess you could say that today’s 7-day avg is 141.1 while tomorrow’s will be 152.4, but I don’t know what we gain by that. ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2020, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/485 "2020-07-30T19:15:25Z")
Why do I have explain this? The day isn’t over. Unless you’re taking the 3:15 EST numbers from 7 days ago, you aren’t doing a 7 day average. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2020, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/486 "2020-07-30T19:17:54Z")
I’m pretty sure the number Florida is going to report for 7/30 is 252. Different states do things differently, but Florida puts up a number once a day in the morning most days. Florida is most likely done for the day. Occasionally a small adjustment comes in later, but the final reported number is quite likely to be 252 or only slightly different than that. It’s very unlikely to be different enough to have much effect of the seven day average. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2020, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/487 "2020-07-30T19:57:55Z")
I didn’t know Florida posted numbers in the morning. When I pull state numbers I have to wait close to midnight to get a decent account from all of them. 252 wouldn’t be out of line for a Thursday given their trend. That would put the 7 day average at 151. The nursing home info doesn’t bode well at all. That’s where the resources should have been focused on. My state assigned a hospital to each nursing home as a point of interface. I don’t know if it’s working but it makes sense to link a medical institution to them instead of waiting for the ambulance to arrive. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2020, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/488 "2020-08-01T20:25:29Z")
For completeness I’ll post this again with the full month of July complete. | Rank | State | Total Deaths | July Deaths | PCT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Montana | 60 | 38 | 63.33% | | 2 | Texas | 6997 | 4197 | 59.98% | | 3 | South Carolina | 1711 | 973 | 56.87% | | 4 | Arizona | 3694 | 2062 | 55.82% | | 5 | Idaho | 189 | 97 | 51.32% | | 6 | Florida | 6841 | 3338 | 48.79% | | 7 | Utah | 304 | 132 | 43.42% | | 8 | Tennessee | 1060 | 456 | 43.02% | | 9 | Arkansas | 453 | 183 | 40.40% | | 10 | Alabama | 1580 | 630 | 39.87% | | 11 | Alaska | 23 | 9 | 39.13% | | 12 | Nevada | 829 | 323 | 38.96% | | 13 | Oregon | 321 | 115 | 35.83% | | 14 | Mississippi | 1662 | 590 | 35.50% | | 15 | California | 9190 | 3113 | 33.87% | | 16 | Hawaii | 26 | 8 | 30.77% | | 17 | South Dakota | 129 | 39 | 30.23% | | 18 | North Carolina | 1952 | 576 | 29.51% | | 19 | Oklahoma | 540 | 154 | 28.52% | | 20 | Georgia | 3751 | 947 | 25.25% | | 21 | North Dakota | 103 | 24 | 23.30% | | 22 | Kentucky | 735 | 171 | 23.27% | | 23 | Kansas | 357 | 83 | 23.25% | | 24 | Wyoming | 26 | 6 | 23.08% | | 25 | New Mexico | 642 | 145 | 22.59% | | 26 | Missouri | 1304 | 267 | 20.48% | | 27 | West Virginia | 116 | 23 | 19.83% | | 28 | Virginia | 2173 | 411 | 18.91% | | 29 | Louisiana | 3952 | 724 | 18.32% | | 30 | Washington | 1542 | 276 | 17.90% | | 31 | Nebraska | 332 | 58 | 17.47% | | 32 | Iowa | 867 | 151 | 17.42% | | 33 | Ohio | 3493 | 605 | 17.32% | | 34 | Wisconsin | 931 | 150 | 16.11% | | 35 | Maine | 123 | 18 | 14.63% | | 36 | Delaware | 585 | 76 | 12.99% | | 37 | Indiana | 2964 | 325 | 10.96% | | 38 | New Hampshire | 415 | 44 | 10.60% | | 39 | Minnesota | 1640 | 164 | 10.00% | | 40 | Maryland | 3492 | 303 | 8.68% | | 41 | Colorado | 1837 | 148 | 8.06% | | 42 | Pennsylvania | 7280 | 579 | 7.95% | | 43 | Illinois | 7692 | 568 | 7.38% | | 44 | Massachusetts | 8608 | 555 | 6.45% | | 45 | District of Columbia | 582 | 34 | 5.84% | | 46 | Rhode Island | 1007 | 57 | 5.66% | | 47 | New Jersey | 15896 | 807 | 5.08% | | 48 | Michigan | 6450 | 257 | 3.98% | | 49 | Connecticut | 4431 | 110 | 2.48% | | 50 | New York | 32765 | 636 | 1.94% | | 51 | Vermont | 55 | 1 | 1.82% | ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2020, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/489 "2020-08-01T20:34:28Z")
Here is the current seven day average of deaths per day per million with week over week relative change also included. Arizona, in the top spot, may have leveled off. A bunch of the other bad states are still climbing pretty quickly. | Rank | State | Deaths | WoW | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Arizona | 10.83 | -1.25% | | 2 | Mississippi | 9.60 | +52.67% | | 3 | South Carolina | 9.07 | +13.15% | | 4 | Florida | 7.92 | +40.33% | | 5 | Texas | 7.21 | +30.39% | | 6 | Louisiana | 7.16 | +11.48% | | 7 | Nevada | 5.01 | +27.06% | | 8 | Georgia | 4.17 | +0.00% | | 9 | Alabama | 4.14 | -17.92% | | 10 | Idaho | 3.60 | +73.08% | | 11 | California | 3.10 | +18.04% | | 12 | New Mexico | 2.79 | +13.89% | | 13 | Arkansas | 2.79 | +43.90% | | 14 | Tennessee | 2.55 | -0.81% | | 15 | North Carolina | 2.37 | +20.83% | | 16 | Ohio | 2.31 | +1.07% | | 17 | Massachusetts | 2.30 | +15.62% | | 18 | Oklahoma | 2.06 | +46.15% | | 19 | Iowa | 1.95 | +7.50% | | 20 | Missouri | 1.89 | +22.73% | | 21 | Montana | 1.87 | +55.56% | | 22 | Virginia | 1.79 | +98.15% | | 23 | Indiana | 1.72 | +0.00% | | 24 | New Jersey | 1.70 | +24.71% | | 25 | Maryland | 1.68 | +12.70% | | 26 | Kansas | 1.47 | +30.43% | | 27 | Kentucky | 1.44 | +36.36% | | 28 | Utah | 1.38 | -18.42% | | 29 | Wisconsin | 1.37 | +24.44% | | 30 | Oregon | 1.35 | +42.86% | | 31 | Illinois | 1.30 | +2.68% | | 32 | Washington | 1.29 | +11.29% | | 33 | South Dakota | 1.29 | +33.33% | | 34 | Colorado | 1.19 | +23.08% | | 35 | Nebraska | 1.18 | +6.67% | | 36 | Pennsylvania | 1.09 | -14.78% | | 37 | West Virginia | 1.04 | +333.33% | | 38 | Delaware | 1.03 | -87.72% | | 39 | Minnesota | 0.86 | +3.03% | | 40 | New Hampshire | 0.84 | -33.33% | | 41 | District of Columbia | 0.81 | +0.00% | | 42 | Alaska | 0.78 | +100.00% | | 43 | Connecticut | 0.76 | +11.76% | | 44 | North Dakota | 0.75 | -55.56% | | 45 | New York | 0.73 | -23.08% | | 46 | Michigan | 0.72 | +11.11% | | 47 | Rhode Island | 0.67 | -58.33% | | 48 | Maine | 0.53 | +66.67% | | 49 | Wyoming | 0.25 | +0.00% | | 50 | Vermont | 0.23 | +inf% | | 51 | Hawaii | 0.00 | -100.00% | ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2020, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/490 "2020-08-02T05:22:01Z")
Florida reported a new record on Friday, 257 deaths. Four consecutive days of new record death tolls. > **[Florida breaks its record for coronavirus deaths for fourth straight day](https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/florida-breaks-its-record-for-coronavirus-deaths-for-fourth-straight-day-1.5047424)** > > Florida on Friday marked the fourth consecutive day it reported a record number of COVID-19 deaths in the state. Yeah, this is going great. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2020, 8:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/491 "2020-08-02T08:00:36Z")
Seems like if you combined elements of these two tables you might get something a bit more illustrative? I mean to say, I guess what we are looking for is places where July deaths are a smaller percentage of total deaths but are also high per capita. I can see, for example, that MA is at 6.45% for July but I don’t know offhand how to interpret their number of 555. ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2020, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/492 "2020-08-06T15:46:11Z")
So have there been any states (or countries) that got hit hard and are now seeing a second wave of deaths within the same population? There are definitely places that recently went through what appears to be a first wave - eg: [South Carolina](https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#sc), [California](https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#california), [Arizona](https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#arizona). However, most of the charts I’ve seen of places that already got hit resemble [New York](https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#ny), [New Jersey](https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#nj), or [Massachusetts](https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#ma). ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2020, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/493 "2020-08-06T16:00:18Z")
To late to edit: Another data point - [Italy](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/italy?country=~ITA) (chart of deaths a little over halfway down). ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2020, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/494 "2020-08-06T16:23:57Z")
Too late to edit: **Too** late to edit 😬 ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2020, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/495 "2020-08-06T16:34:11Z")
@DSeid has mentioned to keep an eye on Louisiana, as a state that was part of the initial surge in the US and later started to trend up again. I haven’t looked at their graph in a while. I suppose you have to be careful looking at certain states as a whole, in the same way you do with some countries, since their population – and their spread – may be heterogenous. Maybe New Orleans had a bad outbreak of its own early on, while the rest of the state was relatively spared at the time. I have no idea. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2020, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/496 "2020-08-06T16:50:13Z")
Louisiana deaths per day per million versus the US. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/5mDokNDb9q3EmTcPhQExENybkk76w9wwzuywwsS5ZaKi8Twmo9YH91jHhJ38To3YCICV5cwA10z_w-zY5tpLd2VDV6v0QKex8PuxAcRKIhuKzgP81M8fJv0-Ztn6Kj25VWwFpB97Zw=w564-h290-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/N5UzYoKJcR5fTT3Z7) ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2020, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/497 "2020-08-06T18:42:33Z")
> I suppose you have to be careful looking at certain states as a whole, in the same way you do with some countries, since their population – and their spread – may be heterogenous. Maybe New Orleans had a bad outbreak of its own early on, while the rest of the state was relatively spared at the time. I have no idea. Yes, that’s more or less exactly what happened. New Orleans did get a second surge of cases, but not at the level of places that hadn’t been hit at all before. The NYT has county-level maps which can be really useful for seeing local patterns. [Here’s Louisiana](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/louisiana-coronavirus-cases.html). ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2020, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/498 "2020-08-06T23:09:40Z")
Some of the states have low populations and their numbers swing wildly so comparisons between states don’t really mean much. What is important is the state/region’s trends. The 7 day average death per million rankings as of yesterday: | 1.1568 | Mississippi | | --- | --- | | 0.9382 | Arizona | | 0.8594 | Florida | | 0.7755 | Texas | | 0.7741 | South Carolina | | 0.6453 | Louisiana | | 0.5480 | Montana | | 0.5102 | Nevada | | 0.4602 | Georgia | | 0.4574 | Alabama | ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2020, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/499 "2020-08-06T23:14:25Z")
Something I find really disturbing is Sturgis. It’s a 10 day motorcycle festival that could draw a half million people from all over into South Dakota for concerts and general social gatherings. I can’t believe that wasn’t cancelled. ---
**Author:** ![JohnGalt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johngalt/32/184_2.png) [@JohnGalt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnGalt)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2020, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/500 "2020-08-07T00:57:01Z")
Local news programs reporting from Sturgis said 60% of the residents wanted it cancelled. One can only assume that the other 40% wants the cash the rally generates. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191.md?page=24) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191.md?page=26)