# Following the second wave (or not) in the US as the States open up **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [May 20, 2020, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191 "2020-05-20T16:12:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 27
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/521 "2020-08-14T19:23:37Z")
FWIW, here’s the plot of Florida versus the US. I don’t see anything that support’s **casdave** ’s assertions of obvious fraud. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t any fraud. Just that it is not obvious from looking at the plot. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/_M0sJAZ8N8U-aCQUUkSM4mbPMXuPwAxR3P7ao20um30hsEmmSb-7jyNqlbGdsVY-ucdxIkW0LlacOaaXIvp1l0IOLin2pX0bAEMHnX74nDCVlhmXLw0BeE0l1Q3-6PnD7GaJb9ghqw=w543-h290-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/WNCXJ97i9DRsDuJ5A) ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2020, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/522 "2020-08-15T16:14:06Z")
> [@PoppaSan](#): > > Aug 2 & 3 - deaths reported over the weekend. Aug 4 & 5 - weekend deaths “caught up.” Aug 9 & 10 - 7 days later. Aug 11 & 12 - should be the same thing. Can see a similar cycle in almost any state. Yes, we all understand the reporting cycle. It doesn’t change what I said. ---
**Author:** ![PoppaSan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/poppasan/32/189_2.png) [@PoppaSan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PoppaSan)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2020, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/523 "2020-08-15T20:52:21Z")
You gave a chart of deaths over a 1 1/2 week range with numbers all over the place along with a complaint of lack of daily consistency. I gave a possible explanation. You seem to want to dig for a conspiracy. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2020, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/524 "2020-08-15T21:03:28Z")
It was in response to a claim of fraud in reporting. There is no clear direction to their numbers which is what I was trying to show. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2020, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/525 "2020-08-16T03:44:04Z")
> [@Banksiaman](#): > > Doesn’t your much vaunted 7 day running average, which used to be your much-vaunted 10 day running average, smooth out those inconsistencies and cover for the weekend drops? Vaunted? I’ve posted basic numbers. there’s nothing boisterous about it. If you’ve got something to contribute then by all means, research it and present your opinion with the results of your research. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/526 "2020-08-26T05:30:57Z")
To me this chart looks quite encouraging. And perhaps more than a little telling. > **[US-Cases.PNG](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1z9NLCB1wElxivBP0CW8e11iN5-9C7ozV/view?usp=sharing)** > > Google Drive file. > **[Here's why new cases of the coronavirus are down across most of the U.S.](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/25/new-cases-of-the-coronavirus-are-falling-in-most-of-the-us.html)** > > "I would not be surprised if we see an uptick after Labor Day in cases," said Catherine Troisi, an infectious disease epidemiologist at UTHealth School of Public Health in Houston. ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 8:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/527 "2020-08-26T08:33:54Z")
“What we’re really concerned about are schools opening, Labor Day weekend and pandemic fatigue,” If history is a guide, that’s exactly what will happen. Another spike where the new case count will peak around the end of October. Probably a smaller one than the first one and the Memorial Day/re-opening one, because masking is more prevalent now. ---
**Author:** ![casdave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c6cbf5/32.png) [@casdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/casdave)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 10:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/528 "2020-08-26T10:37:32Z")
I am still extremely sceptical about the US death rate figures, if you examine the US daily infection rates and then compare side by side with death rates, the curves do follow similar shape, however you’ll notice that the death rate itself over the last twop months has a remarkably much lower mortality than in the first couple of months. Now I would expect the death rates per million infections would be lower by now due to improvements in treatment and earlier diagnosis, but to have half the daily death rate whilst simultaneously having more than double the daily infection rate and to achieve such an advance in less than 5 months does not seem real. By sheer coincidene the second wave arrived just around the time when Trump relieved the CDC from reporting Coronavirus figures, July 15th > **[US Daily Cases](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-positive/)** > > The COVID Tracking Project collects and publishes the most complete testing data available for US states and territories. > **[US Daily Deaths](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths/)** > > The COVID Tracking Project collects and publishes the most complete testing data available for US states and territories. Now look at Brazil - I know their medical system has issues, and I know there is much greater proverty, but their population is far younger and you would expect this to reduce the death rate somewhat. Instead what you have is an initial surge followed by a long plateau, and this would also include improvements in treatment and diagnosis. > **[Brazil COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/)** > > Brazil Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline. Folks, if you are in the US and you see the daily figures, you are being sold a pup. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/529 "2020-08-26T13:12:04Z")
You don’t think the increase in testing capacity over the course of the last several months is a factor? ---
**Author:** ![Monocracy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monocracy/32/4493_2.png) [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/530 "2020-08-26T15:07:03Z")
Except that the test positivity rate climbed along with the case numbers. In mid-June, test+ dropped to about 4.5% then rose to 9% in mid-July, and is hovering around 6% right now. At the first peak of cases in early April, the positivity rate was around 20%. Now I’m trying to wrap my head around exactly how the test positivity rate corresponds to the actual number of cases, but you would think that a higher rate would mean more undiagnosed cases, while a lower rate means more people without symptoms are being tested, thus more cases are being discovered. I have heard a theory why the death rate per case may be dropping and I might post about it later on. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/531 "2020-08-26T15:16:48Z")
To me, even including positivity rate in the analysis still leaves case counts a dreadfully incomplete measure of what’s really going on. You could look at those two curves and conclude that the disease has gotten far less deadly, or you could guess that the case counts early on weren’t catching near as many of the true infections as they were later. One of those scenarios seems far, far more plausible than the other. ---
**Author:** ![Monocracy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monocracy/32/4493_2.png) [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/532 "2020-08-26T16:54:18Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > _[…]_ or you could guess that the case counts early on weren’t catching near as many of the true infections as they were later. But how about comparing when cases where at their lowest in June to the high point of cases in late July. The test positivity rate rose from 4.5% to 9%. Do you still think they were catching more true infections in July than they were in June, even with the higher positivity rate? ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/533 "2020-08-26T21:32:19Z")
I don’t know about July versus June. I’m thinking more about the early stages versus recent times. My guess is that the number of infections in the early stages is very dramatically undercounted, so much so that the differences in positivity rate you mention don’t really play much of a role in this analysis. Now, I do think there could be a number of good reasons why less people would die as the epidemic proceeds, but I don’t chalk those up to the disease itself being inherently less lethal as it spreads. (Though I know that’s a possibility too.) ---
**Author:** ![PoppaSan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/poppasan/32/189_2.png) [@PoppaSan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PoppaSan)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/534 "2020-08-27T00:31:17Z")
It has been known since early on that death rates among the aged were much higher than those under say 40. The later infections are relatively much more prevalent among the younger age group, thus a lower death per infection rate should be expected. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/535 "2020-08-27T02:36:07Z")
> [@PoppaSan](#): > > The later infections are relatively much more prevalent among the younger age group I don’t know that there is a compelling reason to believe that. (In terms of ‘true’ infections, at any rate.) ---
**Author:** ![needscoffee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/needscoffee/32/1076_2.png) [@needscoffee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/needscoffee)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/536 "2020-08-27T02:55:56Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > > [@PoppaSan](#): > > > > The later infections are relatively much more prevalent among the younger age group > > I don’t know that there is a compelling reason to believe that. (In terms of ‘true’ infections, at any rate.)  [https://www.dailylocal.com/news/coronavirus/expert-young-people-spreading-covid-19-now/article\_599a83c4-e7db-11ea-83c5-7b5101ed651e.amp.html](https://www.dailylocal.com/news/coronavirus/expert-young-people-spreading-covid-19-now/article_599a83c4-e7db-11ea-83c5-7b5101ed651e.amp.html) ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/537 "2020-08-27T02:58:49Z")
That article says this: > Where in April, May and even June most of the positive cases came from those in their 70s, the ones getting it right now are in their 20s. Now, I have no doubt that the confirmed cases reflect that. I have every doubt that the actual infections do. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/538 "2020-08-27T03:10:51Z")
Have a look at the chart of current cases in New Zealand, which you can find here: > **[COVID-19: Case demographics](https://www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-case-demographics)** > > Information about who has been affected by COVID-19 in New Zealand. You won’t find much at all in the 70s there. And lots in the youngest age brackets. (Much more than one might have guessed, perhaps.) And if you want to see a chart of their cases in total since the beginning: > **[NZCasesByAge.PNG](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qVS8KCEdPslfODYp_UQ_a7PGNsHM-nsF/view?usp=sharing)** > > Google Drive file. You can find that here: > **[COVID-19: Current cases](https://www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-current-cases)** > > Information about confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 in New Zealand. Now, I see no reason at all to believe that everywhere else the virus would have somehow magically held off, for the most part, on infecting those aged less than 70 in the early going. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/539 "2020-08-27T20:52:44Z")
I’ve previously posted in this thread about my community. We were very hard hit in mid-March through early April, and then virtually nothing, despite shedding almost all forms of social distancing (other than old/sick people) by late May. This lasted for about 3-4 months. We have had a very clear uptick beginning in the last couple of weeks. Nothing remotely like the first wave (yet) but there’s no doubt that things have taken a turn for the worse, after 4 months of apparent impunity. Local medical people say that (again, so far) in addition to the numbers being a lot lower than the first wave, the severity has also tended to be lower. So it’s possible that what’s happening is that this is a different strain which is more contagious but less lethal. But it’s also possible that - as compared to the first wave - the most vulnerable people are less likely to be alive altogether, and if alive, more likely to be taking precautions. ---
**Author:** ![Monocracy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monocracy/32/4493_2.png) [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/540 "2020-08-28T13:48:41Z")
One of the theories that I have heard for the lower death rate is a lower viral load in infected people. The severity of the disease is related to the initial dose which causes infection. A lower dose means a less severe reaction to the disease. Mitigation efforts such as hand washing, better ventilation, social distancing, and especially mask wearing have resulted in people getting infected with lower doses of the virus. Thus the course of the disease is less severe and there are fewer hospitalizations and deaths. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191.md?page=26) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191.md?page=28)