# Following the second wave (or not) in the US as the States open up **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [May 20, 2020, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191 "2020-05-20T16:12:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![The\_Tooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c67d28/32.png) [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/41 "2020-05-26T16:45:29Z")
Then I guess it’s time to party. Enjoy your wading pools, may I recommend a nice conga line for afters? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/42 "2020-05-26T17:51:13Z")
> [@The\_Tooth](#): > > Then I guess it’s time to party. Enjoy your wading pools, may I recommend a nice conga line for afters? A less snarky response would be to say it’s time for the millions of people who are losing their livelihood to go back to work based on the numbers. A lot of businesses are never coming back and people need to rebuild their lives. ---
**Author:** ![kayT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayt/32/3633_2.png) [@kayT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayT)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/43 "2020-05-26T17:59:41Z")
Since almost no one in Texas was being tested during the stay-at-home, it doesn’t seem surprising at all that the rates are going up. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/44 "2020-05-26T19:36:34Z")
> [@kayT](#): > > Since almost no one in Texas was being tested during the stay-at-home, it doesn’t seem surprising at all that the rates are going up. [The rates are going down](https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#tx). Here are the number of deaths for the last 5 days 5/22 - 26 5/23 - 15 5/24 - 8 5/25 - 7 5/26 - 0 0 but end of day not available ---
**Author:** ![kayT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayt/32/3633_2.png) [@kayT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayT)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/45 "2020-05-27T01:00:55Z")
> [@kayT](#): > > Since almost no one in Texas was being tested during the stay-at-home, it doesn’t seem surprising at all that the rates are going up. > [@Magiver](#): > > [The rates are going down](https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#tx). > > Here are the number of deaths for the last 5 days > 5/22 - 26 > 5/23 - 15 > 5/24 - 8 > 5/25 - 7 > 5/26 - 0 0 but end of day not available Actually I was referring to the total number of cases diagnosed, not deaths. And diagnosed cases are continuing to go up, but it seems clear that this is because some people are now able to be tested. (Not everyone, regardless of what is being claimed, but some.) ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c67d28/32.png) [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/46 "2020-05-27T01:30:40Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > A less snarky response would be to say it’s time for the millions of people who are losing their livelihood to go back to work based on the numbers. Why would I say that? It’s not my opinion, nor is it correct. > [@](#): > > A lot of businesses are never coming back and people need to rebuild their lives. 'kay. Do not say you were not warned. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/47 "2020-05-27T02:34:39Z")
> [@kayT](#): > > Actually I was referring to the total number of cases diagnosed, not deaths. And diagnosed cases are continuing to go up, but it seems clear that this is because some people are now able to be tested. (Not everyone, regardless of what is being claimed, but some.) total number of cases diagnosed is always an upward number. The daily cases are fluctuating within limits. Not sure where the trend is on this but it’s not anything wild. There are some hot spots within Texas that are probably on an upward trend. 5/22 - 1109 5/23 - 869 5/24 - 681 5/25 - 527 5/26 -1051 ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/48 "2020-05-27T02:43:06Z")
> [@The\_Tooth](#): > > Why would I say that? It’s not my opinion, nor is it correct. OK, it’s not your opinion. but it’s still correct. > [@The\_Tooth](#): > > 'kay. Do not say you were not warned. warned about what? what are you predicting will happen? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c67d28/32.png) [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/49 "2020-05-27T13:49:06Z")
Never mind. Nothing will happen. In 15 days it will disappear like a miracle. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/50 "2020-05-27T14:51:28Z")
> [@The\_Tooth](#): > > Never mind. Nothing will happen. In 15 days it will disappear like a miracle. So, to some up your posts, something will happen, we’ve been warned. No specific prediction and no cites. OK. In the mean time we’ll continue to look at the actual numbers and react as needed knowing nobody on the entire planet is expecting a miracle on June 10th or any other date. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c67d28/32.png) [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/51 "2020-05-27T15:13:42Z")
Yes, I’ve been watching people react as needed. ---
**Author:** ![HoneyBadgerDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honeybadgerdc/32/1033_2.png) [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/52 "2020-05-27T16:24:31Z")
If I had to take a guess at what the second wave will look like I would think it might be a long slow rolling wave with a much longer peak. Social distancing might be all we need to slow the spread enough for a controlled passing through of the virus. Protecting those vulnerable will take a huge load off of the hospitals and will smaller death numbers coming in possibly a lot of fear by the public will be alleviated allowing things to get back to normal much sooner. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/53 "2020-05-27T16:38:56Z")
> [@The\_Tooth](#): > > Then I guess it’s time to party. Enjoy your wading pools, may I recommend a nice conga line for afters? > [@The\_Tooth](#): > > Why would I say that? It’s not my opinion, nor is it correct. > > 'kay. Do not say you were not warned. > [@The\_Tooth](#): > > Never mind. Nothing will happen. In 15 days it will disappear like a miracle. > [@The\_Tooth](#): > > Yes, I’ve been watching people react as needed. **Moderator Note** **The Tooth** , you appear to be interested more in giving snarky responses rather than contributing to the thread. What you are doing is verging on trolling. I’m instructing you to either make more substantive responses or stop posting in the thread. Colibri General Questions Moderator ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/54 "2020-05-27T16:50:03Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > If I had to take a guess at what the second wave will look like I would think it might be a long slow rolling wave with a much longer peak. Social distancing might be all we need to slow the spread enough for a controlled passing through of the virus. Protecting those vulnerable will take a huge load off of the hospitals and will smaller death numbers coming in possibly a lot of fear by the public will be alleviated allowing things to get back to normal much sooner. About what I’m expecting. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 7:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/55 "2020-05-28T07:50:49Z")
[Two weeks after court scraps Safer at Home, Wisconsin sets record for new coronavirus cases and deaths](https://madison365.com/two-weeks-after-court-scraps-safer-at-home-wisconsin-sets-record-for-new-coronavirus-cases-and-deaths/) in [Madison365.com](http://Madison365.com) > [@](#): > > Two weeks to the day after the Wisconsin Supreme Court overturned Governor Tony Evers’ “Safer at Home” order, the state has set a one-day record for new coronavirus cases, as 642 positive cases were identified in the past 24 hours, bringing the total to 16,565 — and increasing the number of currently active cases by more than 10 percent. > > Additionally, the day was the deadliest so far, as 22 people succumbed to COVID19 since this time Tuesday, bringing the total death toll to 539. > > The percentage of coronavirus tests coming back positive also rose from 3.6 percent to 5.8 in the past 24 hours. I’m not sure what Wisconsin’s alternatives are at this point. I haven’t followed it closely enough to know if that includes all enforcement of social distancing as well. Related article: [Wisconsin Business Owner Bans Wearing of Masks After Court Overturns Stay-At-Home Order](https://www.newsweek.com/wisconsin-business-owner-bans-wearing-masks-after-court-overturns-stay-home-order-1504589) > [@](#): > > A Wisconsin business owner banned the use of masks in her buildings Friday, after the state Supreme Court overturned the state’s stay-at-home order. > > Annie’s Campground, near Gresham, Wisconsin, posted the new rule on the establishment’s Facebook page: “Masks are NOT allowed in the buildings for safety sake. They are viewed as a robbery in progress and will be handled that way.” > . . . > “Now, I do understand that there are people who wear a mask because of their delicate health situation, like cancer or a recent surgery. I know these people and their stature is much different that a 6’2” male entering an establishment aggressively with intent to do harm," Retzlaff stated. If you’re a 6’2" male with a delicate health situation, you’re out of luck going to that business. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 9:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/56 "2020-05-28T09:32:41Z")
[Fauci says second wave of coronavirus infections is ‘not inevitable’: ‘We can prevent this’](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/499715-fauci-says-second-wave-of-coronavirus-infections-is-not-inevitable-we-can) > [@](#): > > Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top expert on infectious diseases, said Wednesday that a second wave of coronavirus infections is “not inevitable” if people are vigilant about proper mitigation efforts. > . . . > “And particularly when people start thinking about the fall. I want people to really appreciate that, it could happen but it is not inevitable,” he added. > > Last month, Fauci had said in multiple interviews that a second wave of COVID-19 was indeed unavoidable. > > "It’s inevitable that the coronavirus will return next season. … When it does, how we handle it, will determine our fate,” he told NBC News. I feel like there’s a divide between people who say a second wave is inevitable so why not just take your chances now and those that feel that people can prevent another spike with prevention measures. I think it’s better messaging to say that a second wave is not inevitable if people do the right things. That at least gives people some sense of control. Fauci is now saying that a second wave is not inevitable. The inevitability approach gets this reaction. [Elgin bar owner bans customers from wearing masks inside](https://www.kxan.com/news/local/elgin-bar-owner-bans-customers-from-wearing-masks-inside/?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark) > [@](#): > > A local tavern in Elgin has banned its customers from coming in covered up. > > The statement posted outside the tavern reads, “Due to our concern for our citizens, if they feel the need to wear a mask, then they should probably stay home until it’s safe.” The owner of the bar had stage 4 cancer and says that there will be social distancing but no masks allowed. He says that if people are sick, they should stay home. That’s fair to say that sick people should stay home, but more and more studies are showing that many people are asymptomatic and spreading the virus. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/57 "2020-05-28T12:18:16Z")
> [@](#): > > Two weeks to the day after the Wisconsin Supreme Court overturned Governor Tony Evers’ “Safer at Home” order, the state has set a one-day record for new coronavirus cases, as 642 positive cases were identified in the past 24 hours, bringing the total to 16,565 — and increasing the number of currently active cases by more than 10 percent. > > Additionally, the day was the deadliest so far, as 22 people succumbed to COVID19 since this time Tuesday, bringing the total death toll to 539. This is a little misleading, since Wisconsin, like a lot of states, has a clear weekend lag in reporting, and this was a three-day weekend. Of course there is going to be an apparent one-day spike on the first day people are back to work. If you look at [graphs that show the seven-day rolling average](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/wisconsin-coronavirus-cases.html%5B/url) of cases and deaths, cases are indeed on an upward trend, but deaths have been more or less flat for a month after peaking in April. (Sorry about the paywalled link, but the NYT’s state-by-state graphs are really good.) ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/58 "2020-05-28T13:19:34Z")
> [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > This is a little misleading, since Wisconsin, like a lot of states, has a clear weekend lag in reporting, and this was a three-day weekend. Of course there is going to be an apparent one-day spike on the first day people are back to work. If you look at [graphs that show the seven-day rolling average](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/wisconsin-coronavirus-cases.html%5B/url) of cases and deaths, cases are indeed on an upward trend, but deaths have been more or less flat for a month after peaking in April. (Sorry about the paywalled link, but the NYT’s state-by-state graphs are really good.) Your link doesn’t work. Here’s the[link](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/wisconsin-coronavirus-cases.html). Even with a 3 day weekend, that spike is very noticeable. It’s higher than any other data point to date. It’s at 27 deaths on May 27 with the next highest day with 19 on April 28. Even with the lag, you’d expect to see the spikes on the seventh day. This spike is noticeably higher than the others. As for cases, there was an a small peak in April, then cases flatlined for a bit with a larger peak in May, with another plateau and another increase recently. With the increase in cases, one would expect to see an increase in death rates with a longer time lag. Still, that spike doesn’t bode well. ---
**Author:** ![zimaane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a3d4f5/32.png) [@zimaane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zimaane)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/59 "2020-05-28T14:47:22Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > Your link doesn’t work. Here’s the[link](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/wisconsin-coronavirus-cases.html). > > Even with a 3 day weekend, that spike is very noticeable. It’s higher than any other data point to date. It’s at 27 deaths on May 27 with the next highest day with 19 on April 28. Even with the lag, you’d expect to see the spikes on the seventh day. This spike is noticeably higher than the others. > > As for cases, there was an a small peak in April, then cases flatlined for a bit with a larger peak in May, with another plateau and another increase recently. > > With the increase in cases, one would expect to see an increase in death rates with a longer time lag. Still, that spike doesn’t bode well. I am looking at the Washington Post’s charts by state, and they show **22** deaths on May 27. Since the state began reopening on April 27th, the 7-day moving average number of deaths has been steady at a little less than 10 per day. Link: [https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp\_hp-top-table-main\_web-gfx-death-tracker%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp_hp-top-table-main_web-gfx-death-tracker%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans) ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/60 "2020-05-28T14:53:43Z")
> [@zimaane](#): > > I am looking at the Washington Post’s charts by state, and they show **22** deaths on May 27. Since the state began reopening on April 27th, the 7-day moving average number of deaths has been steady at a little less than 10 per day. > > Link: [https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp\_hp-top-table-main\_web-gfx-death-tracker%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp_hp-top-table-main_web-gfx-death-tracker%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans) My bad. You’re right. It was 22 deaths on May 27. I misread it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191.md?page=4)