# Following the second wave (or not) in the US as the States open up **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [May 20, 2020, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191 "2020-05-20T16:12:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Euphoria-DK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b782af/32.png) [@Euphoria-DK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphoria-DK)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2020, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/101 "2020-06-12T22:01:24Z")
Hi - first time poster (long time lurker). I am from Denmark and we have been mentioned a lot in this and other threads and I would like to correct a few misconceptions. We have done quite well so far in the epidemic in terms of deaths and infections although not as well as our close neighbors from Norway but quite a lot better than Sweden, and many have said that it is due to our early and hard lock down. Well it was early (March 11th IIRC) but it wasn’t especially hard. We were never told not to leave our homes and many shops, garden centers and DIY-stores remained open. I know only one person (a dentist) who didn’t work until society opened up a few weeks ago but a lot of us worked from home. Restaurants, gyms, hairdressers, theaters and sports events were closed but it was hardly a draconian lock down like we have seen in other parts of Europe. My sister lives and works in Stockholm, Sweden which has been seen as a country that didn’t do anything to prevent the spread of covid, but that isn’t true either. They may have been able to go to the restaurants and gyms and such things, but many of the other restrictions were also in place there. I think that what worked in Denmark (and Norway, Germany and other countrys) was that the early lock down bought time to get the test and trace scheme up and running before the numbers got out of hand. Sweden has tested much less and are only now ramping up the numbers of tests. A big part of the problem in Sweden also relates to their failure to protect the care homes where a majority of their fatalities have occured. Denmark started reopening the schools after the easter break and didn’t see any spike in numbers, which surprised the politicians while the experts were less surprised. So it wasn’t the closing of the schools itself that seems to be why we have done comparatively well. We are now starting to open up the borders from monday 15th to Norway, Iceland and Germany - all countries that have done as well or better than us, so nobody is expecting any spikes from that either. Hardly anybody in Denmark wear masks except when taking an internationsl flight. The scientists have claimed all along that there is no known advantages from wearing them and that they may give a false sence of security which may result in less strict observance of more important social distance tools (like keeping the distance from others and keeping a high level of personal hygiene). I don’t for a minute think that we are out of the woods yet - we may see a second wave and it may come sooner than we think. In the last week there have been several Black Lives Matter demonstrations in Denmark including one in Copenhagen with 15.000 participants. That may be the kind of event that could trigger a second wave. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2020, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/102 "2020-06-12T22:40:20Z")
Masks help keep my saliva and sneeze matter out of someone else’s lungs. At least that’s what I’m hearing from scientists. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2020, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/103 "2020-06-12T22:53:57Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > Masks help keep my saliva and sneeze matter out of someone else’s lungs. At least that’s what I’m hearing from scientists. This month. Two months ago they didn’t. Did I miss the scientific research that changed their minds? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2020, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/104 "2020-06-12T23:23:37Z")
Given Florida’s current state of increasing infections, it is possible that the upcoming Trump acceptance speech in Jacksonville FL may well result in a[superspreader event,](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971211000245) which could potentially lead to 10’s or even 100’s of thousands of infections all by itself. Many of the 15,000 participants will not be distancing or wearing masks out of fealty to Trump. Time will tell. Watch the numbers in Florida from Sept 10 onwards. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2020, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/105 "2020-06-12T23:26:29Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > This month. Two months ago they didn’t. Did I miss the scientific research that changed their minds? The folks in places like Japan or Korea have been pretty consistent with this message. I tend to ignore everything coming out of the USA these days, because I feel that you are currently a failed state. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2020, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/106 "2020-06-12T23:33:23Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > The folks in places like Japan or Korea have been pretty consistent with this message. I tend to ignore everything coming out of the USA these days, because I feel that you are currently a failed state. Japan didn’t do any real shutdown, do agree with them on that? Denmark has low numbers, are they all wearing masks? Point me to a study that convinced North American medical officers to start recommending masks, if you please. Don’t tell me “well, the Japanese swear by them”. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2020, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/107 "2020-06-12T23:50:19Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Given Florida’s current state of increasing infections, it is possible that the upcoming Trump acceptance speech in Jacksonville FL may well result in a[superspreader event,](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971211000245) which could potentially lead to 10’s or even 100’s of thousands of infections all by itself. Many of the 15,000 participants will not be distancing or wearing masks out of fealty to Trump. > > Time will tell. Watch the numbers in Florida from Sept 10 onwards. Trump will be killing off many of his key voters in a key swing state. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2020, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/108 "2020-06-12T23:54:39Z")
Welcome,\*\* Euphoria-DK.\*\* ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2020, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/109 "2020-06-13T00:00:44Z")
Yes, thanks for delurking Euphoria-DK. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2020, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/110 "2020-06-13T00:38:40Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > As I said, I’m using my common sense. You use whatever works for you. But if you’re near me, wear a mask and I will, too. Out of idle curiosity, I wondered if your common sense had changed since “follow the science” changed its mind. From 3 months ago: > [@How are you personally affected by the Corona Virus?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-are-you-personally-affected-by-the-corona-virus/849340/630): > > My completely unscientifical opinion is that you can’t sterilize the breath/droplets exhaled by CV carriers. Nor will a mask protect others unless that mask is sealed to the face of the infected person. What I’m reading is that the longer people are in a space together, the more hazardous it is. So dashing in and out of the grocery store is not so risky. Sitting next to (or even six feet away from) people in church, at a concert, and certainly for hours on an airplane is quite risky. YMMV. Is your cloth mask “sealed” to your face? ---
**Author:** ![yo\_han\_go](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yo_han_go/32/130_2.png) [@yo\_han\_go](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yo_han_go)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2020, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/111 "2020-06-13T01:34:31Z")
Can back up our new Danish fellow claims for my country (Slovenia too) too. Including protests (up to 500 people gatherings are now legal). Tourists from selected countries with good viral picture are free to come, not sure about Denmark, but I’ve seen some quite a few German speaking tourists here today. Epidemic is basically over, but high vigilance is in the air. There are dozen of epidemiology operative crews to be alerted for every new potencial hot spot emerging. And there was one last week. Contained, hopefully, with 16 new cases. Total of 22 active cases as today for whole country. But still, as for me, I will not sleep sound until properly vaccinated. So, I’d say second wave is not necessary inevitable, if you didn’t screw it in the first place. And if you then stay vigilant. Go. Learn. Adapt. Survive. I believe that was South Korean tactics from the first moment too. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2020, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/112 "2020-06-13T01:59:03Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Out of idle curiosity, I wondered if your common sense had changed since “follow the science” changed its mind. From 3 months ago: > Is your cloth mask “sealed” to your face? My God, that was three months ago, otherwise known as an eternity. You really had to search for that. 😕 [This](https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/themountaineer.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/1/68/168464e8-a6b7-11ea-93c3-bbdff398342c/5ed97ce37fb72.image.jpg) makes sense to me now, if you’re going to go out in the world. Now how about you go forth and do what makes sense to you and get off my case. ---
**Author:** ![HoneyBadgerDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honeybadgerdc/32/1033_2.png) [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2020, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/113 "2020-06-13T03:05:10Z")
> [@kayaker](#): > > Hacks? I thought they were twats. > > They are reporting what is happening. That’s what I want when I read the news. ``` no they are not reporting what is happening they are reporting what they want us to see ``` ---
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2020, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/114 "2020-06-13T05:19:54Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > This month. Two months ago they didn’t. Did I miss the scientific research that changed their minds? Nothing has changed. Masks have always helped stop the wearer from spreading to others. Months ago the advice we saw, especially quoted in the media, was all about whether the masks helped stop the wearer getting infected. The answer to this was that they were much less effective in that direction. As the balance between droplet and aerosol routes is better appreciated things change a little. Something people forget about surgical masks, and much other garb. Before HIV they were by default worn to protect the patient, not the wearer. It was the advent of HIV, and better appreciation of the dangers of other infectious greeblies that made them part of the defensive PPE. So much of questions and conversations we see about Covid, and other maladies, is how I help myself, and very little about how I help others. Which says a lot about modern society. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2020, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/115 "2020-06-13T11:52:20Z")
No, medical officers didn’t recommend masks for the reasons Euphoria-DK gave above. People generally don’t use a mask properly so they aren’t very effective but do give a false sense of security that leads to people forgetting about social distancing. I’ve seen people admit that but still think masks are good because they symbolize that you take the disease seriously. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2020, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/116 "2020-06-13T15:03:04Z")
About face masks. Some recent headlines about face masks for the Covid-19 crisis. [We asked the CDC what to do about wearing masks The answer is complicated, but empowering](https://www.sfgate.com/shopping/article/should-i-wear-a-mask-coronavirus-CDC-15192780.php) > [@](#): > > Why did the recommendation change? > > “The original message, ‘Don’t go randomly around wearing a mask,’ that was focused on protection,” explained Dr. Mike Bell, Deputy Director of Healthcare Quality Promotion at the CDC. “Randomly wearing masks to protect yourself – it was not well reported, it didn’t make sense," he said. > > “What we’ve found since is that a good portion of individuals who have COVID-19 actually have a window of infectiveness, they’re shedding the virus and can infect other people, before they show any symptoms. We also found that some people never show symptoms at all. That means some people who aren’t coughing or sneezing can still be a source of infection for other people.” > . . . > In short: You’re not wearing your mask to protect yourself; you’re wearing it to protect others from you. The guidelines changed, not because of the studies on face masks at the time. The guidance changed because of the studies on the spread of infection from asymptomatic people. Since then (all from 6/12-6/13/20): Several studies are showing that face masks may play a role in reducing the spreading of coronavirus. [Masks Can Reduce Covid Spread By 40%, German Study Suggests](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-12/masks-can-reduce-covid-spread-by-40-german-study-suggests) > [@](#): > > according to a paper from the Institute of Labor Economics in Bonn. > > The researchers compared Jena’s trajectory before and after April 6 with that of a weighted-average sample of people from other German towns and cities that comprise a group with similar demographics, local health-care systems and pre-April 6 Covid-19 levels. After Jena introduced widespread masks, new confirmed infections were 25% lower than in the control group. That sort of impact appeared to be even higher when the authors looked at the experience of larger cities in Germany. [Study: 100% face mask use could crush second, third COVID-19 wave](https://www.wcvb.com/article/study-says-100-percent-face-mask-use-could-crush-second-third-covid-19-wave/32843976) > [@](#): > > But now a new modeling study out of Cambridge and Greenwich universities suggests that face masks may be even more important than originally thought in preventing future outbreaks of the new coronavirus. > > To ward off resurgences, the reproduction number for the virus (the average number of people who will contract it from one infected person) needs to drop below 1.0. Researchers don’t believe that’s achievable with lockdowns alone. However, a combination of lockdowns and widespread mask compliance might do the trick, they say. > > “We show that, when face masks are used by the public all the time (not just from when symptoms first appear), the effective reproduction number, Re, can be decreased below 1, leading to the mitigation of epidemic spread,” the scientists wrote in the paper published Wednesday by the Proceedings of the Royal Society A. [Masks significantly reduce Covid-19 infection risk, more effective than social distancing: Study](https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/masks-significantly-reduce-infection-risk-likely-preventing-thousands-of-covid?utm_source=emarsys&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ST_Newsletter_AM&utm_term=Masks+significantly+reduce+infection+risk%2C+likely+preventing+thousands+of+Covid-19+cases%3A+Study&utm_content=13%2F06%2F2020) > [@](#): > > Mask wearing is even more important for preventing the virus’ spread and the sometimes deadly Covid-19 illness it causes than social distancing and stay-at-home orders, researchers said, in the study published in PNAS, or The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. > > Infection trends shifted dramatically when mask wearing rules were implemented on April 6 in northern Italy and April 17 in New York City - at the time among the hardest-hit areas of the world by the health crisis - the study found. [Face masks don’t even have to work especially well to be effective But to stop the pandemic, they have to be combined with lockdowns.](https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06/modeling-the-impact-of-face-masks-on-the-covid-19-pandemic/) > [@](#): > > Assuming a face mask that’s even less effective than cotton cloth is at preventing the spread of droplets, a 50-percent rate of mask use is able to delay further peaks. The second peak, for example, would start at about the same time that the population is already in lockdown under the no-mask-use scenario. At 100-percent face mask use, there’s only a single wave of infections and then the pandemic starts to decline. In this scenario, infections will decline even if face masks are only 50-percent effective. With 95-percent mask use, an N95-level of protection is enough to cause the pandemic to decline. [Wearing masks likely preventing thousands of coronavirus cases - study](https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronavirus-pandemic/wearing-masks-likely-preventing-thousands-of-coronavirus-cases---study) > [@](#): > > Mask-wearing is even more important for preventing the virus’ spread and the sometimes deadly Covid-19 illness it causes than social distancing and stay-at-home orders, researchers said, in the study published in PNAS: The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2020, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/117 "2020-06-13T15:51:40Z")
At least one state (North Carolina) and one city (Houston, Texas) are considering increased lockdown measures. [North Carolina Open to Re-implementing Stay-at-Home Order if Coronavirus Cases Worsen](https://www.newsweek.com/north-carolina-open-re-implementing-stay-home-order-if-coronavirus-cases-worsen-1510484) > [@](#): > > North Carolina could re-implement a stay-at-home order if coronaviruses cases continue to increase, according to the head of the state’s health department. > > “If we need to go back to stay-at-home [orders], we will,” Department of Health Secretary Mandy Cohen told NPR’s Morning Edition. “I hope we don’t have to. I think there are things we can do before we have to get there, but yes, we are concerned.” [Houston considering new stay-at-home orders as several states see spike in coronavirus cases](https://www.foxnews.com/us/houston-stay-at-home-orders-coronavirus-spike) > [@](#): > > Houston is considering a new stay-at-home order as cases of coronavirus begin to rise again in Texas as well as other parts of the country, according to reports. > > Texas began a phased reopening around Memorial Day weekend but has seen a steady rise in cases. Wednesday saw a spike of 2,504 new cases, the most for the state since the start of the pandemic. Are more cities and states heading back toward lockdown after reopening in May? ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2020, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/118 "2020-06-13T16:31:12Z")
I find the first graph on this page to be very informative. It tracks on a daily basis deaths only, and includes a line representing a 7 day average. It can be sorted state by state. If you looked at my state, Illinois, it is clear that the first wave, although no longer peaked, is still with us here. > **[U.S. coronavirus cases: Tracking deaths, confirmed cases by state](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp_hp-top-table-main_web-gfx-death-tracker%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans)** > > What covid-19 infection, death, hospitalization and vaccination rates can tell us about the state of the pandemic in the U.S. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2020, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/119 "2020-06-13T17:09:46Z")
Are there any states at all where relaxing restrictions hasn’t backfired? ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2020, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/120 "2020-06-13T17:15:40Z")
I sorted the above graph for Conneticut, where a friend plans a wedding in the fall, and they seem to be doing very well. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191.md?page=7)