# Following the second wave (or not) in the US as the States open up **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [May 20, 2020, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191 "2020-05-20T16:12:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2020, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/141 "2020-06-26T16:37:02Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > So that’s my (tentative) thinking. Once you get to about 30% actually infected, then that number plus any number who have a natural tendency to resist the infection is enough. The problem these other states had is that they closed down at an earlier point, such that relatively few people had been infected. In that situation, once you reopen you’re virtually where you started at the outset, and it breaks out all over again. > > Unfortunately, the implication is that the whole social distancing was just deferring the inevitable, for the most part. That does seem to be the conclusion if you look at NY and CA. One locked down early and is now having spikes. The other went through a long spike and is now ready to reopen. Just to play devil’s advocate, this hypothesis doesn’t really explain places like Japan where they never did get a surge or other places where there was a hard lockdown and not a second spike yet like Denmark. An alternative hypothesis and the one espoused by Gov. Cuomo of NY is that people were very vigilant when there was a lockdown because there was so much sickness and death around that the R0 was able to get low enough for the infection not to cause a spike. When there’s that much sickness around, people are more willing to use masks and socially distance in a rigorous way and just plain stay in. Other places locked down early but didn’t do enough to get the R0 number down low enough to open back up, but they opened back up anyway. Then the infection kept spreading. Once the infection is spreading, social distancing is less effective. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2020, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/142 "2020-06-26T16:48:09Z")
My theory about Japan is that widespread wearing of masks is the only thing that’s really effective even there’s no surge or shutdown. I don’t know about Denmark. I’m not sure I understand what Cuomo’s theory is. The question is why R0 wouldn’t go back up. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2020, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/143 "2020-06-26T17:46:47Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I’m not sure I understand what Cuomo’s theory is. The question is why R0 wouldn’t go back up. The theory is that if R0 is less than 1, then each person is spreading it to less than one person. That makes containment more effective. If the R0 is more than 1, then each person is spreading it to more than 1 person and it’s harder to control. > **[Basic reproduction number](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number)** > > In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number, or basic reproductive number (sometimes called basic reproduction ratio or basic reproductive rate), denoted > > > > > R > > 0 > > > > > {\\displaystyle R\_{0}} > > (pronounced R nought or R zero), of an infection is the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection. The definition assumes that no oth > ... > [@](#): > > The most important uses of R 0 are determining if an emerging [infectious disease](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infectious_disease) can spread in a population and determining what proportion of the population should be immunized through vaccination to eradicate a disease. In commonly used [infection models](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_modelling_of_infectious_disease), when R 0 \> 1 the infection will be able to start spreading in a population, but not if R 0 \< 1. Copying that out of wikidpedia is the extent of my knowledge about this and listening to Cuomo’s talks several times. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2020, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/144 "2020-06-26T18:07:16Z")
Yeah, I got that part. But I would have thought that whether or not R0 is higher or lower than 1 is itself a function of what containment measures are in place in society. So if you’ve managed to get it below 1 but now opened up, then the question is why, if what brought it below 1 was the social distancing, does it not go back above 1 when those controls are removed. ---
**Author:** ![TitsMcGee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/titsmcgee/32/3359_2.png) [@TitsMcGee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TitsMcGee)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2020, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/145 "2020-06-26T18:10:07Z")
Houston (Harris County) is now at a Level 1, which means that non-essential workers must stay at home. We’re now back to where we were at the beginning of March. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2020, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/146 "2020-06-26T18:24:59Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > if what brought it below 1 was the social distancing, does it not go back above 1 when those controls are removed. I don’t know enough to answer your question, but my WAG is that it’s similar to your hypothesis. Once the infection is low enough, then there’s not enough people to spread it to to create the surge because if that one person statistically can only spread it to another person, and that other person is immune for some reason, then the spread is less likely to happen. > [@TitsMcGee](#): > > Houston (Harris County) is now at a Level 1, which means that non-essential workers must stay at home. We’re now back to where we were at the beginning of March. I just read that a Houston hospital is at 100% capacity for ICU beds. They still have surge capacity, but that will get overwhelmed at the current rate of hospitalizations. I tried linking the article earlier, but it didn’t want to cooperate, so I gave up. ---
**Author:** ![Skypist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skypist/32/169_2.png) [@Skypist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skypist)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2020, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/147 "2020-06-26T18:49:29Z")
Abbott has rolled us back slightly by ordering bars closed by noon today and taking restaurants back to 50% occupancy instead of 75% as it had been. I don’t see how that’s enough when the virus is rampant like this. Not trying to bring politics in per se but I thought the idea was supposed to be to at least prevent hospital surge. I’m concerned that these half measures aren’t enough. ---
**Author:** ![casdave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c6cbf5/32.png) [@casdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/casdave)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2020, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/148 "2020-06-26T19:03:06Z")
It wasn’t enough to stop it in the first place, there is no possibility it will even slow it in a worse situation. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Bredin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/96bed5/32.png) [@John\_Bredin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Bredin)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2020, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/149 "2020-06-26T21:41:38Z")
Did someone key in some of today’s numbers wrong at the Washington Post? [WP article.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp_hp-top-table-main_web-gfx-death-tracker%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans) Because it shows huge spikes – actual spikes, not just continuing increases – for Illinois for just today. But comparing the WP’s numbers for Illinois today – 1910 new cases and an unprecedented 238(!!!) deaths-- to the numbers from the governor’s press conference (857 cases, 39 deaths [Linky](https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-pandemic-chicago-illinois-news-20200626-w757tck4gnbfbpltkvhujfptmy-story.html)) doesn’t remotely pan out. 🤔 ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2020, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/150 "2020-06-26T21:53:02Z")
I’m not sure what is going on with the WaPo story you linked but there is other info in it that is incorrect about Illinois. It says restaurants are still limited to pick up and delivery when in fact we have had outdoor dining allowed since the beginning of June and today, June 26, restaurants and bars are allowed to have patrons inside albeit in reduced numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2020, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/151 "2020-06-26T22:49:41Z")
Per the state-by-state graphs at the Washington Post site, “The spike on June 26 is due to Illinois authorities adding 1,053 probable cases and 201 probable deaths to the state’s totals.” In other words, the same thing NJ did yesterday – these are cases and deaths that occurred at some point in the past, we don’t know exactly when. ---
**Author:** ![bob\_2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bob_2/32/3341_2.png) [@bob\_2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bob_2)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2020, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/152 "2020-06-26T23:59:13Z")
I went to the supermarket this morning as usual. I took more interest in the few people wearing masks and came to the entirely unscientific conclusion that the masks are more to do with “Look at me - Aren’t I good” than about protection. I suspect that they are the same ones that hold the traffic up by driving at less than the limit where most people want to go faster. ---
**Author:** ![needscoffee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/needscoffee/32/1076_2.png) [@needscoffee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/needscoffee)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2020, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/153 "2020-06-27T00:03:56Z")
> [@bob\_2](#): > > I went to the supermarket this morning as usual. I took more interest in the few people wearing masks and came to the entirely unscientific conclusion that the masks are more to do with “Look at me - Aren’t I good” than about protection. > > I suspect that they are the same ones that hold the traffic up by driving at less than the limit where most people want to go faster What caused you to reach this conclusion? ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2020, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/154 "2020-06-27T00:13:54Z")
I saw that, too. Makes the graph as a whole lose credibility. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2020, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/155 "2020-06-27T00:18:25Z")
That sucks that only a few people in your store are wearing masks. If I lived there, that’s a store I’d avoid. (BTW, you went there this morning “as usual”? The grocery store is part of your morning routine??) ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2020, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/156 "2020-06-27T02:14:51Z")
If you think it’s bad now…wait until flu season hits. Remember: the fact that we’re in summer, when we are spending more time outdoors, and given that we’ve had a good 3 months to know what this virus can do, should be the time when we have somewhat of a reprieve. And yet…here we are now, watching the pandemic rip through the population, torching the record books. I have absolutely no idea what in the hell people are thinking, believing this will just magically go away. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2020, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/157 "2020-06-27T02:22:02Z")
> [@bob\_2](#): > > I went to the supermarket this morning as usual. I took more interest in the few people wearing masks and came to the entirely unscientific conclusion that the masks are more to do with “Look at me - Aren’t I good” than about protection. > > I suspect that they are the same ones that hold the traffic up by driving at less than the limit where most people want to go faster. People like you are the reason we are seeing a spike. Groceries around here require masks, which is why while cases are growing, we’re not spiking. As for your analogy, not wearing a mask is more like driving 100 mph and weaving through traffic because you’re convinced you’re a great driver and nothing could go wrong. ---
**Author:** ![bob\_2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bob_2/32/3341_2.png) [@bob\_2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bob_2)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2020, 8:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/158 "2020-06-27T08:38:02Z")
It’s a weekly shop and I am in the UK, in a part of the country where cases are few. Our local hospitals reported no inpatient COVID cases at all yesterday. Masks are nowhere near as effective as washing frequently (which I do) and keeping your distance (which I also do). After seeing pictures of crowded beaches on the South Coast, and mobs of celebrating football fans in Liverpool, it looks as if COVID19+1 will soon be with us. Both those are far from here, so probably not a problem for me. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2020, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/159 "2020-06-27T12:24:08Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > Unfortunately, the implication is that the whole social distancing was just deferring the inevitable, for the most part. This is partially correct, but “the inevitable” does not necessarily mean that huge percentages of the population get infected simultaneously. We could have had a partial reopening with masks and distancing and gotten to maybe 80% normal life, indefinitely. But some dingdongs just had to have it all, and thought they could will the virus into submission with their “customer is always right” mentality. So the second wave is here and will easily eclipse the first wave and it will be harder to avoid getting what can be a very nasty disease in people of any age. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2020, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/160 "2020-06-27T14:54:09Z")
Some headlines from today: Recording breaking day of [new cases](https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1276688794251603968?s=21) [twitter] in the US.- 46,580 new cases. California Gov. Newsom [tells](https://abc7news.com/health/newsom-tells-1-ca-county-to-shut-back-down/6271101/) Imperial County to shut back down. [Model shows](https://www.fox29.com/news/model-shows-that-33000-american-lives-could-be-saved-if-95-of-people-wear-masks-in-public) that 33,000 American lives could be saved if 95% of people wear masks in public > [@](#): > > Researchers are forecasting that more than 179,000 Americans will die by Oct. 1. That number drops to around 146,000 people if at least 95% of people wear masks — a difference of 33,000 lives. [Miami will begin](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/miami-will-begin-issuing-fines-of-up-to-500-for-not-wearing-a-mask-in-public/ar-BB15YQ0L) issuing fines of up to $500 for not wearing a mask in public [Washington](https://www.newsweek.com/washington-makes-not-wearing-face-mask-misdemeanor-crime-1513220) [state] Makes Not Wearing a Face Mask a Misdemeanor Crime [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191.md?page=9)