# Following the second wave (or not) in the US as the States open up

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191>\
**Category:** The Quarantine Zone\
**Tags:** covid-quarantine\
**Created:** [May 20, 2020, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191 "2020-05-20T16:12:11Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 9

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**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\
**Post date:** [June 27, 2020, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/161 "2020-06-27T21:34:37Z")

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> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#):
>
> [Model shows](https://www.fox29.com/news/model-shows-that-33000-american-lives-could-be-saved-if-95-of-people-wear-masks-in-public) that 33,000 American lives could be saved if 95% of people wear masks in public

Guess we’re going to lose 33,000 people then. Because nowhere near that number are willing to wear masks. I do wonder if they might if they were flat out told by their governors that either people wear masks, or the states get locked down hard. Even then I have my doubts.

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**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\
**Post date:** [June 27, 2020, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/162 "2020-06-27T21:36:22Z")

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That 179,000 number seems awfully optimistic.

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**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\
**Post date:** [June 27, 2020, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/163 "2020-06-27T21:38:05Z")

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> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#):
>
> Unfortunately, the implication is that the whole social distancing was just deferring the inevitable, for the most part.

As a mortal, I do have to admit that pretty much any form of health and safety improvement is just deferring the inevitable.

It’s what we do with that bought time that is important.

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**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [June 28, 2020, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/164 "2020-06-28T17:52:57Z")

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> [@](#):
>
> That 179,000 number seems awfully optimistic.

Wildly optimistic. The infection rate has ballooned to over 40,000 a day. Given that so far half a percent of all cases in the USA have ended in death, a fairly optimistic outlook would be that starting in a few weeks, 2,000 Americans will die every day from COVID-19. I do stress optimistic; the daily infection rate might be worse than that next week, and my mortality assumption does not consider the possibility of hospital overwhelming in areas that are especially hard-hit.

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**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [June 28, 2020, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/165 "2020-06-28T22:49:22Z")

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[quote=“RickJay, post:164, topic:854191”]Wildly optimistic. The infection rate has ballooned to over 40,000 a day.  
.  
[/quote] “infection rate” would not be the correct term. “current number of people known to be infected” would be a more accurate statement. There is no way of knowing the rate of infection in real time or ever for that matter. There’s simply no way to generate an accurate number. Absent that information we have to look at metrics that provide a trend pattern. Daily deaths would be one of those and that carries with it a time lag of 2 weeks or more. The other measure of importance would be hospitalizations. It still has a time lag to day of infection but that provides a trend number to make decisions on.

The national death rate is still trending down but the areas where ICU rates are increasing represent a trend that needs to be addressed within that region.

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**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\
**Post date:** [June 28, 2020, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/166 "2020-06-28T22:51:23Z")

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> [@Magiver](#):
>
> The national death rate is still trending down but the areas where ICU rates are increasing represent a trend that needs to be addressed within that region.

Actually, it represents a trend that needed to be addressed a week or two ago.

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**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [June 28, 2020, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/167 "2020-06-28T23:06:31Z")

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The trend is consistently going down so that means we should do nothing.

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**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\
**Post date:** [June 28, 2020, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/168 "2020-06-28T23:09:42Z")

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Especially in Arizona, eh!?

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**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\
**Post date:** [June 28, 2020, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/169 "2020-06-28T23:13:21Z")

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I disagree with your assertion that the trend is going down, when the facts tell a different picture.

And I also disagree that we should do nothing, even if the trend was going down, because doing nothing is how a downward trend starts to trend upwards.

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**Author:** ![yojimbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yojimbo/32/232_2.png) [@yojimbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yojimbo)\
**Post date:** [June 28, 2020, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/170 "2020-06-28T23:33:10Z")

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Don’t know about NY but in Ireland the plan was to get the R\<1 AND very little of the new cases coming from the community but coming from medical and institutional settings. Once that was achieved a slow gradual opening is allowed with social distancing etc. It is expected then that numbers will rise but you are dealing with hopefully controllable numbers.

We are opening most things from Monday but everywhere you go, pubs, hairdressers, restaurants etc all have booking systems that you have to id yourself on. That data is kept for 3 weeks to aid in contact tracing if needed. All companies opening up have to keep records of staff contact etc. Anybody who can work from home is still working from home. All these measures are being used. Some places have done such a good job of removing it from the community that they can really be on top of it. Others haven’t to varying degrees. It is hoped that local control measures can keep the numbers done and lock down any clusters quickly through test, contact and trace. This is the world until we find a way to be able to ignore it. If we let if go it will swamp hospitals like we saw in Italy. Hopefully there is enough capacity in the US cities that are now rising.

On a slightly different note. A question I have is do cities in Texas and other states have in place contingencies for increased ICU use and the other hardships that go with a major outbreak? I haven’t seen a lot of coverage of the on the ground actions in the States but have seen things at home and other closer countries like sports stadiums and conference halls being taken over and turned into overflow hospitals/recovery hospitals/quarantine areas for people who can’t do it at home for some reason.

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**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [June 28, 2020, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/171 "2020-06-28T23:34:57Z")

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That’s not what I said. I was responding to your post. Look at what I said in post 164. I said there are 2 trends to look at. Deaths per day and ICU capacity.

Deaths per day lag behind ICU capacity. It is a fact that deaths per day continue to trend down nationally. We also have areas where ICU capacity is reaching saturation.

Places like Arizona are trending up and down with the death rate but more importantly ICU availabilty is narrowing. Those are the areas that we should be focusing on.

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**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [June 29, 2020, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/172 "2020-06-29T00:50:01Z")

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> [@yojimbo](#):
>
> On a slightly different note. A question I have is do cities in Texas and other states have in place contingencies for increased ICU use and the other hardships that go with a major outbreak?

We have the ability to assemble a mobile hospital if that becomes necessary but we have the infrastructure to transport patients to distant hospitals with available capacity. Both of these options were used in NY. [They transported patients to 4 other surrounding states](https://world.wng.org/2020/04/new_york_s_dunkirk_moment).

If the hospitals do not exceed capacity but need additional medical personal we move civilian and military personal as needed. For NYC they called up the 445th Aerospace Medicine Squadron. That unit would also have the capacity to evacuate large numbers of patients with specially equipped aircraft. They can be at location in roughly 24 hrs.

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**Author:** ![yojimbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yojimbo/32/232_2.png) [@yojimbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yojimbo)\
**Post date:** [June 29, 2020, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/173 "2020-06-29T01:11:36Z")

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Good to hear **Magiver** glad the infrastructure is there. Hopefully will not be needed.

Thanks for the info.

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**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\
**Post date:** [June 29, 2020, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/174 "2020-06-29T01:39:46Z")

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It could be that we’re gradually achieving some real gains in terms of lowering the fatality rate - this could be what we’re seeing.

But if this is what we’re seeing, I would wager that a large part of what is helping healthcare workers to achieve these lower rates is not being over-burdened with community-spread COVID.

Let’s suppose further that we’re seeing the virus spread among younger “lower-risk” patients. We will be able to feel good about this only for so long. But what’s important to keep in mind is that a person who acquires COVID-19, even if they are all young and healthy, are not just COVID-19 cases, **they are COVID vectors**.

Once you get the number of vectors past a certain point…there won’t be much doctors can do, no matter what advances they’ve made. Though it will vary depending on the region, I suspect we’re getting closer to that point of no return each day. Some communities’ healthcare system are going to get shocked and awed.

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**Author:** ![newme](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/e0b2c6/32.png) [@newme](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/newme)\
**Post date:** [June 30, 2020, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/175 "2020-06-30T14:49:18Z")

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Latest graph of new daily covid hospitalizations in Houston. Went from 50 per day in mid May to 250 per day at the end of June.

[![](https://www.tmc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/f-TMC-daily-new-covid-19-hospitalizations-6-29-2020.png) ](https://www.tmc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/f-TMC-daily-new-covid-19-hospitalizations-6-29-2020.png)

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**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\
**Post date:** [June 30, 2020, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/176 "2020-06-30T15:08:41Z")

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So Texas is galloping along new cases-wise but has any noticed that it’s being far outpaced by California in the deaths/million? The same California with mandatory mask laws, strict reopening guidelines and a fairly compliant population?

> **[An interactive visualization of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC](https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=California&show=highlight-only&y=both&scale=linear&data=deaths&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right&extra=Texas#states-normalized)**
>
> An interactive, data-forward visualization of COVID-19 data by Prof. Wade at The University of Illinois. Updated daily.

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**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\
**Post date:** [June 30, 2020, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/177 "2020-06-30T15:28:10Z")

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Some headlines and news about coronavirus spread:

[Maps show explosive growth of coronavirus in US](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02Wi5GSkdNk) [CNN youtube]

Only 4 states are now declining in new cases. 46 states are increasing or flat. The map is getting redder (more increasing cases). 15 states are holding steady. From a month ago, the spread is much higher.

In Florida, case counts are at 6 times more than a month ago.

In California, bars are now closed. CA seeing 45% increase in cases over the last week. The entire state has a mandatory face mask policy.

Sanjay Gupta says that there’s no place in the country that is immune because of the increasing cases and the travel between states.

There’s some new evidence that a mask might help protect the wearer somewhat, not as much as the wearer protecting other people, but still some protection.

> **[Riverside County hospitals hit 99% capacity for ICUs. That's not their...](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-29/riverside-county-icu-beds-hit-99-capacity-the-situation-may-not-be-as-dire-as-it-seems)**
>
> While Riverside County's ICU beds are nearly all taken, partly because of the coronavirus, the bigger challenge for health authorities is a staffing shortage.

Riverside County in California is getting overwhelmed with cases.

['Exhausted’ by customers’ rage over wearing masks, California taco chain shuts down](https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article243867532.html)

Customers screamed, cursed and threw water on employees in defiance of the mask policy. The taco chain shut down to protect its workers.

[Governor Laura Kelly of Kansas Announces Masks Must be Worn starting July 3rd.](https://governor.kansas.gov/governor-laura-kelly-announces-masks-must-be-worn-statewide/)

> **[Oregon Public Broadcasting](https://www.klcc.org/2020-06-29/gov-kate-brown-to-expand-mask-mandate-throughout-oregon)**
>
> OPB News Home Page

Kansas and Oregon are implementing statewide mask wearing policies.

California and Florida beaches will be closed for the 4th of July due to coronavirus spikes.

> **[Houston protesters starting to test positive for COVID-19](https://www.fox26houston.com/news/houston-protesters-starting-to-test-positive-for-covid-19)**
>
> Protesters who took over Houston streets nearly two weeks ago are now starting to test positive for COVID-19.

Protesters are starting to test positive for coronavirus.

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**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\
**Post date:** [June 30, 2020, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/178 "2020-06-30T18:07:50Z")

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California is also, like Texas, a very populous and culturally diverse state. Many of the locations where California is having problem is in the outer suburbs Los Angeles, which typically leans more to the right wing, politically speaking (i.e. a lot more like Texas than San Francisco).

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**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\
**Post date:** [June 30, 2020, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/179 "2020-06-30T18:13:40Z")

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> **[Public Health Officials Face Wave Of Threats, Pressure Amid Coronavirus Response](https://khn.org/news/public-health-officials-face-wave-of-threats-pressure-amid-coronavirus-response/)**
>
> Public health officials are confronting growing pressure — and threats — across the country as the backlash to the coronavirus response continues. At least 27 state and local health leaders have re…

Countless health officials forced to resign (even fired), not for failing to do their jobs, but for actually doing their jobs.

Every time this happens, this almost inevitably costs lives - probably in the hundreds, at minimum.

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**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\
**Post date:** [June 30, 2020, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/following-the-second-wave-or-not-in-the-us-as-the-states-open-up/854191/180 "2020-06-30T18:28:44Z")

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> [@asahi](#):
>
> California is also, like Texas, a very populous and culturally diverse state. Many of the locations where California is having problem is in the outer suburbs Los Angeles, which typically leans more to the right wing, politically speaking (i.e. a lot more like Texas than San Francisco).

While it’s certainly expedient to look at the rise in cases in red states and say, “Republicans!”, and then look at the rise in cases in a blue state like California and still say, “Republicans!”, I feel like there’s got to be more to it than that. Or at least, I’d like to see some data on affected demographics before agreeing that the whole thing is caused by Republicans. Plenty of blue states/regions got walloped early on, after all. Obviously the Republican war on masks/restrictions doesn’t help but I don’t feel like it can solely explain what’s going on now.

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