Wanted to add: Since mid-April, reported cases in Sweden has more than tripled. It’s not a massive leap to suspect the true infection rate went up by about the same. So I could see Sweden currently being at about 25%
It’s a leap of reasonable size. Unless tests are administered randomly and testing volume has held constant, there’s no particular reason to make this inference.
The number of deaths also tripled in that period. So, yeah I still think it’s a fairly reasonable leap. And the thing is, people can’t have it both ways. You can’t simultaneously say Sweden is recklessly letting the disease spread and also that it’s not spreading that much.
To be clear, none of these people are people I was especially close to. Just people I know. A couple of guys I knew from school who lived in town so I ran into them every couple of years. The step-father of one BIL and the FIL of another BIL, who also lived in town (especially the first, who lived right around the corner from me). A guy who participated in a group activity with me and with whom I interacted regularly.
Some other local people I knew died who may or may not have died from the virus. My next door neighbor’s father died and he was definitely infected with Covid, but he also definitely had cancer so I don’t know what role the covid may have played. And several other local people I know died around this time but I have no information at all as to whether they were infected altogether.
I don’t know. (FWIW, I myself live in NJ.)
But I suspect that places as big as states might be too big for that same type of pattern. Because the infection doesn’t strike an entire state uniformly. So you might have one place within the state which followed this pattern and another place which also followed the same pattern but was a few weeks behind timewise, and a third place which followed a slightly different pattern altogether, and so on. If you look at this on a statewide level, you would miss the true picture.
[Also worth noting that, particularly in the case of deaths, the local numbers can be seriously skewed based on the relative prevalence of nursing homes within that locale.]
I suspect that some people are relatively impervious to the disease for whatever reason, even without having ever been infected. So if 30% of the population has been infected and has protective antibodies, the number who are not prone to spreading the disease would be a lot higher.
Places like Sweden were ahead of the curve, so to speak, in that whatever measures they did take were taken in advance. In my community, the disease had already spread through the community before anyone knew that it was a big deal in the US, and before any sort of lockdown restrictions were implemented.
ISTM that these are not comparable.
The 7% vs 30% in the case of Sweden is how far the infection had spread as compared to how far it had earlier been expected to spread. It’s a measurement of the accuracy of a projection.
What I’m saying in this case is that the local medical people are currently estimating that 30% of the population has already been infected. It’s a current measurement of facts on the ground, and I’m not seeing any evidence that the Swedes got this type of measurement wrong.
I’d say at least 90% of the people are out and about with little regard to social distancing. The 10% or so of older people or those with conditions are being more careful for the most part, from what I can tell.
I myself have been on the more cautious side of the curve. But I recently relented as well. My kids were having a very hard time of it socially. The problem is that if everyone is keeping “the rules” then you’re not the only one out, but once all the other kids are hanging out together it can be very tough to be the only one left out. I told my kids we would wait a couple of weeks from when the non-SD became extremely widespread, and if there was no new outbreak we would drop it as well.
Even now, if there’s a low cost way of SD, I keep it. I’m not shaking people’s hands, because what do I care about shaking people’s hands. But over the weekend, a relative made a family gathering, and I attended. And I’m certainly not telling my kids that they can’t visit their friends’ houses, and so on.
A couple of nights ago I spoke to a neighbor whose wife works in the office of one of the leading pediatricians in town. He said there was a meeting of various leading medical lights of various specialties in town, and the consensus was that “we’re done” in terms of potential major new outbreaks. They agreed not to publicize it, because they felt there could still be minor upticks and they didn’t want to discourage the small amount of SD still going on.
Of course, they could be very wrong, as so many experts have been over the course of this pandemic. But at this point, considering the potential risks the price I’m going to pay to avoid it is relatively low.
Your quote refers to clubs and other indoor venues.
Anyone dying is sad, but people dying in one’s monkeysphere can be especially disconcerting.
This fits what they’re reporting in NY. NY had an immunity rate of roughly 20% but they say it might be much higher in those areas that are hard hit like the Bronx and Brooklyn.
The World Is Still Far From Herd Immunity for Coronavirus
Why do you suspect that? I would guess it’s more likely that people were infected but didn’t show symptoms. I’ve seen a study showing that some asymptomatic people are still showing signs of lung damage.
This professor believes that everyone is susceptible.
I agree that the projection is not the same as an estimate. But ISTM that the estimate is pretty high. You might be in a pocket like the Bronx or Brooklyn, but most places are not showing stats that high, as far as I’ve seen.
article linked above dated May 28, 2020
Did they give any reason for their belief that there would be no major new outbreaks in your area?
Thanks, I missed that. Makes more sense now. The comparison was between indoor and outdoor events with outdoor events posing less risk.
I know quite a lot of people who had prolonged exposure to infected people, e.g. spouses and similar, and who not only never showed symptoms but subsequently tested negative for antibodies.
Very likely, but I’m only hearing this third-hand (from my neighbor, from his wife, from one of the participating doctors) so I don’t have nearly that level of detail.
But I would guess it’s based mostly on the fact that new infections are extremely low, combined with a relatively high level of past infections.
Well, this doesn’t look good.
Two health officials have quit. One in Orange County, CA has quit because of pressure that her advice for mask wearing would not be enforced along with threats to her life. The health director in Ohio quitting was more diplomatic and supposedly about her schedule. But she has taken a lot of heat in recent months as well.
Some headlines about increasing cases in various states
Arizona coronavirus cases nearly double since Memorial Day as state nears hospital capacity
[
SC sets another record high in coronavirus cases and it’s not because of more testing, DHEC says](SC sets another record high in coronavirus cases and it's not because of more testing, DHEC says)
The Washington Post gave a global perspective. I picked out the US parts.
The coronavirus pandemic isn’t ending — it’s surging
While the US sees a surge on coronavirus cases, a couple authors of the Atlantic see the nation as giving up.
The stock market has taken notice of the rise in cases and has acted in accordance.
Market Meltdown: Dow Dives 1,800 Points On Worries Of 2nd Coronavirus Wave
Yep, nowhere near herd immunity, and we were nowhere near containing the virus - and we reopened anyway.
Now we will have to suffer the consequences.
Ignoring science has a price.
I’ll disagree that yesterday’s market drop was related to a ‘second wave’ I think the Fed statement and another long period of zero interest rates is far more to blame
My take - and I’m not an economist - is that the first reaction back in March was a sign that investors realize the market was way, way overpriced. That seemed like an “Okay, the game is up” moment.
What we’re about to see next is reality settling in. People were tossing in money into the “fool’s rally,” but only fools keep throwing in money to companies that are about to go out of business or suffer the worst losses in the history of their company’s existence.
The FAAMG stocks will probably continue to climb for the foreseeable future.
Meh, isn’t that a way to explain any market decline? It was overpriced!!!
And plenty of people bought stocks in 2009 when every CNBC talking head was promising a double dip recession
I was looking at P/E ratios - I’m still looking at P/E ratios. 
And I’m like, “What the frack?!”
That likelihood is diminished by the other plague, an outbreak of terminal stooopidity! :smack:
Yes, all the other models have been soooo darn accurate I should totally take that at face value. Because I’m smart and follow the science!
I don’t need no stinkin’ science to see that this is common sense. :rolleyes:
What’s all this talk about reactions to a second wave? The first wave never ended, no matter how hard angry non mask wearing, non social distancing people try to pretend that we’re past it. If the second wave is worse than the first, look out, because we haven’t yet concluded the first.
Yesterday, Florida reported the highest number of cases to date; nearly 1800
Today, they are reporting a new record; 1900 (and counting)
Florida is still in the middle of a first wave- any “second wave” is simply going to be on top of this and go exponential. I will predict for Florida at the end of September:
220,000 cases
7500 deaths
And THEN the second wave of exponential growth begins.
I hope I’m wrong, but I predict a total shit-show by the end of the year.
I’m using science. It’s called the observation of events. All the models have been quite off, even with constant rejiggering. That’s because scientists are pretty much guessing at a whole bunch of inputs into their models. Now these guys have introduced a brand new variable to guess about. And you think it’s logical and scientific to buy it. Well, it’s not.
As I said, I’m using my common sense. You use whatever works for you. But if you’re near me, wear a mask and I will, too.