That does seem to be the conclusion if you look at NY and CA. One locked down early and is now having spikes. The other went through a long spike and is now ready to reopen.
Just to play devil’s advocate, this hypothesis doesn’t really explain places like Japan where they never did get a surge or other places where there was a hard lockdown and not a second spike yet like Denmark.
An alternative hypothesis and the one espoused by Gov. Cuomo of NY is that people were very vigilant when there was a lockdown because there was so much sickness and death around that the R0 was able to get low enough for the infection not to cause a spike. When there’s that much sickness around, people are more willing to use masks and socially distance in a rigorous way and just plain stay in. Other places locked down early but didn’t do enough to get the R0 number down low enough to open back up, but they opened back up anyway. Then the infection kept spreading. Once the infection is spreading, social distancing is less effective.
My theory about Japan is that widespread wearing of masks is the only thing that’s really effective even there’s no surge or shutdown. I don’t know about Denmark.
I’m not sure I understand what Cuomo’s theory is. The question is why R0 wouldn’t go back up.
The theory is that if R0 is less than 1, then each person is spreading it to less than one person. That makes containment more effective. If the R0 is more than 1, then each person is spreading it to more than 1 person and it’s harder to control.
Copying that out of wikidpedia is the extent of my knowledge about this and listening to Cuomo’s talks several times.
Yeah, I got that part. But I would have thought that whether or not R0 is higher or lower than 1 is itself a function of what containment measures are in place in society. So if you’ve managed to get it below 1 but now opened up, then the question is why, if what brought it below 1 was the social distancing, does it not go back above 1 when those controls are removed.
Houston (Harris County) is now at a Level 1, which means that non-essential workers must stay at home. We’re now back to where we were at the beginning of March.
I don’t know enough to answer your question, but my WAG is that it’s similar to your hypothesis. Once the infection is low enough, then there’s not enough people to spread it to to create the surge because if that one person statistically can only spread it to another person, and that other person is immune for some reason, then the spread is less likely to happen.
I just read that a Houston hospital is at 100% capacity for ICU beds. They still have surge capacity, but that will get overwhelmed at the current rate of hospitalizations. I tried linking the article earlier, but it didn’t want to cooperate, so I gave up.
Abbott has rolled us back slightly by ordering bars closed by noon today and taking restaurants back to 50% occupancy instead of 75% as it had been. I don’t see how that’s enough when the virus is rampant like this. Not trying to bring politics in per se but I thought the idea was supposed to be to at least prevent hospital surge. I’m concerned that these half measures aren’t enough.
Did someone key in some of today’s numbers wrong at the Washington Post? WP article. Because it shows huge spikes – actual spikes, not just continuing increases – for Illinois for just today.
But comparing the WP’s numbers for Illinois today – 1910 new cases and an unprecedented 238(!!!) deaths-- to the numbers from the governor’s press conference (857 cases, 39 deaths Linky) doesn’t remotely pan out.
I’m not sure what is going on with the WaPo story you linked but there is other info in it that is incorrect about Illinois. It says restaurants are still limited to pick up and delivery when in fact we have had outdoor dining allowed since the beginning of June and today, June 26, restaurants and bars are allowed to have patrons inside albeit in reduced numbers.
Per the state-by-state graphs at the Washington Post site, “The spike on June 26 is due to Illinois authorities adding 1,053 probable cases and 201 probable deaths to the state’s totals.” In other words, the same thing NJ did yesterday – these are cases and deaths that occurred at some point in the past, we don’t know exactly when.
I went to the supermarket this morning as usual. I took more interest in the few people wearing masks and came to the entirely unscientific conclusion that the masks are more to do with “Look at me - Aren’t I good” than about protection.
I suspect that they are the same ones that hold the traffic up by driving at less than the limit where most people want to go faster.
That sucks that only a few people in your store are wearing masks. If I lived there, that’s a store I’d avoid.
(BTW, you went there this morning “as usual”? The grocery store is part of your morning routine??)
If you think it’s bad now…wait until flu season hits. Remember: the fact that we’re in summer, when we are spending more time outdoors, and given that we’ve had a good 3 months to know what this virus can do, should be the time when we have somewhat of a reprieve. And yet…here we are now, watching the pandemic rip through the population, torching the record books.
I have absolutely no idea what in the hell people are thinking, believing this will just magically go away.
People like you are the reason we are seeing a spike. Groceries around here require masks, which is why while cases are growing, we’re not spiking.
As for your analogy, not wearing a mask is more like driving 100 mph and weaving through traffic because you’re convinced you’re a great driver and nothing could go wrong.
It’s a weekly shop and I am in the UK, in a part of the country where cases are few. Our local hospitals reported no inpatient COVID cases at all yesterday.
Masks are nowhere near as effective as washing frequently (which I do) and keeping your distance (which I also do).
After seeing pictures of crowded beaches on the South Coast, and mobs of celebrating football fans in Liverpool, it looks as if COVID19+1 will soon be with us. Both those are far from here, so probably not a problem for me.
This is partially correct, but “the inevitable” does not necessarily mean that huge percentages of the population get infected simultaneously.
We could have had a partial reopening with masks and distancing and gotten to maybe 80% normal life, indefinitely. But some dingdongs just had to have it all, and thought they could will the virus into submission with their “customer is always right” mentality.
So the second wave is here and will easily eclipse the first wave and it will be harder to avoid getting what can be a very nasty disease in people of any age.
