# For the US presidents, when was the earliest they could have plausibly been predicted? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 24, 2013, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088 "2013-08-24T20:58:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Shalmanese](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/45deac/32.png) [@Shalmanese](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shalmanese)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2013, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/1 "2013-08-24T20:58:56Z")
I’m wondering for the presidents, at what point in time it was possible to make a case that that person had a decent shot of one day being president? It seems like for the recent string of presidents, it was pretty soon before they got elected. For Obama, for example, I’d say the DNC speech in 2004 (4 years). ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2013, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/2 "2013-08-24T21:18:03Z")
> [@Shalmanese](#): > > I’m wondering for the presidents, at what point in time it was possible to make a case that that person had a decent shot of one day being president? It seems like for the recent string of presidents, it was pretty soon before they got elected. > > For Obama, for example, I’d say the DNC speech in 2004 (4 years). [**Presidential**](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_landslide_victories#Presidential) [**Popular vote margin**](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_landslide_victories#Presidential) [**Electoral votes**](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_landslide_victories#Presidential) Don’t see how this is a debate rather than a GQ. Not much margin for debate. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2013, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/3 "2013-08-24T21:38:10Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > Don’t see how this is a debate rather than a GQ. Not much margin for debate. I don’t think you understood the question. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2013, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/4 "2013-08-24T21:39:57Z")
Franklin Roosevelt was considered a rising star as early as 1920 when he was chosen as the VP nominee. He had the bonus of name recognition due to being related to Theodore Roosevelt. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2013, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/5 "2013-08-24T21:42:12Z")
Ronald Reagan was first noticed as a political prospect when he gave a popular speech in favor of Goldwater at the 1964 convention. ---
**Author:** ![Shalmanese](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/45deac/32.png) [@Shalmanese](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shalmanese)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2013, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/6 "2013-08-24T21:48:15Z")
If you could, include the duration between when you think they were noticed and when they were elected. I’m mainly interested in that duration and how it may have changed over time. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2013, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/7 "2013-08-24T21:48:45Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I don’t think you understood the question. Elucidate, please. I think I perfectly did. The data I provided _is_ the answer & I very much doubt pundits or public were unaware of it. But if you want to take it outside those numbers and in my lifetime, I would have bet the house on Reagan winning both terms. Or Obama winning both of his. Or Clinton winning his second Obvious is obvious. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2013, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/8 "2013-08-24T21:53:41Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > Elucidate, please. I think I perfectly did. I think the question is, how long before the person was nominated could you say, “You know, I’m pretty sure this guy is going to be president some day” ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2013, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/9 "2013-08-24T21:56:19Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > Elucidate, please. I think I perfectly did. > > The data I provided _is_ the answer & I very much doubt pundits or public were unaware of it. > > But if you want to take it outside those numbers and in my lifetime, I would have bet the house on Reagan winning both terms. Or Obama winning both of his. Or Clinton winning his second Obvious is obvious. The OP is asking when somebody could have named as a possible future President not when they were actually elected. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2013, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/10 "2013-08-24T21:57:40Z")
> [@Shalmanese](#): > > If you could, include the duration between when you think they were noticed and when they were elected. I’m mainly interested in that duration and how it may have changed over time. FDR: “Noticed” in 1920. Elected in 1932. 12 years. Reagan: “Noticed” in 1964. Elected in 1980. 16 years. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2013, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/11 "2013-08-24T22:12:41Z")
My personal opinions: Truman: “Noticed” in 1940. Became President in 1945. 5 years. Eisenhower: “Noticed” in 1945. Elected in 1952. 7 years. Kennedy: “Noticed” in 1956. Elected in 1960. 4 years. Johnson: “Noticed” in 1956. Became President in 1963. 7 years. Nixon: “Noticed” in 1948. Elected in 1968. 20 years. Ford: “Noticed” in 1973. Became President in 1974. 8 months. Carter: “Noticed” in 1976. Elected in 1976. 0 years. George H.W. Bush: “Noticed” around 1973? Elected in 1988. Around 15 years. Bill Clinton: “Noticed” in 1987. Elected in 1992. 5 years. George W. Bush: “Noticed” in 1994. Elected in 2000. 6 years. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2013, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/12 "2013-08-24T22:12:43Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > The OP is asking when somebody could have named as a possible future President not when they were actually elected. Fair enough. You are right. Do don’t lose hope 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2013, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/13 "2013-08-25T01:13:36Z")
Both Obama and Clinton were important if not keynote speakers at the convention 4 years before they became nominate (2004 and 1988). Both parties have the near future nominee be a speaker at the convention to nominate someone else as president (Mccain, Romney, Obama, Clinton, etc). However narrowing down that list is hard as to who will get it. I don’t know if W was a speaker in the 92 or 96 convention for the RNC. So there is a hole in that theory. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2013, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/14 "2013-08-25T01:20:48Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > My personal opinions: > > Truman: “Noticed” in 1940. Became President in 1945. 5 years. > Eisenhower: “Noticed” in 1945. Elected in 1952. 7 years. > Kennedy: “Noticed” in 1956. Elected in 1960. 4 years. > Johnson: “Noticed” in 1956. Became President in 1963. 7 years. > Nixon: “Noticed” in 1948. Elected in 1968. 20 years. > Ford: “Noticed” in 1973. Became President in 1974. 8 months. > Carter: “Noticed” in 1976. Elected in 1976. 0 years. > George H.W. Bush: “Noticed” around 1973? Elected in 1988. Around 15 years. > Bill Clinton: “Noticed” in 1987. Elected in 1992. 5 years. > George W. Bush: “Noticed” in 1994. Elected in 2000. 6 years. What is your opinion on future nominees based on who is getting noticed now? I think gov. Schweitzer or Cory Booker could be nominated sometime in the next 20 years on the DNC side (I’m assuming 2016 is going to be Hillary). I have no idea about the GOP side. I assume in the medium term they will move further to the right. I wouldn’t be surprised if Paul Ryan is nominated in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2013, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/15 "2013-08-25T01:36:03Z")
NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo gave a very popular speech at the 2012 DNC and many expect him to run in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2013, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/16 "2013-08-25T01:43:55Z")
I bet a lot of people figured Washington would be President of the United States even before the _existence_ of the United States. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2013, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/17 "2013-08-25T02:03:46Z")
Nope. They thought he would be king. That’s how most folks thought back then. ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2013, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/18 "2013-08-25T02:31:26Z")
My son was born in September 2009. Patronage line starts to the left. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2013, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/19 "2013-08-25T03:22:03Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Both Obama and Clinton were important if not keynote speakers at the convention 4 years before they became nominate (2004 and 1988). . Clinton wasn’t the keynote speaker in 1988. That was Ann Richards, soon to be governor of Texas. Clinton gave a very long nominating speech for Michael Dukakis. [1988 Democratic convention](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Democratic_National_Convention) ---
**Author:** ![SpoilerVirgin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/4491bb/32.png) [@SpoilerVirgin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpoilerVirgin)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2013, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/20 "2013-10-18T00:43:41Z")
I’ve always thought [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=268599) from July 2004 was a really fun read. > [@](#): > > I think we were just watching the ~46th President of the United States. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088.md?page=2)