# For the US presidents, when was the earliest they could have plausibly been predicted? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 24, 2013, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088 "2013-08-24T20:58:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 10\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2013, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/21 "2013-10-18T01:19:19Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > George W. Bush: “Noticed” in 1994. Elected in 2000. 6 years. No. No fucking way. I was _covering_ that election. And early in the cycle NO one thought anything about GWB other than ‘Huh, Jeb’s brother’s governor of Texas.’ He was considered a lightweight who’d do his time at governor and go back to oil, or baseball, or some damn thing. When all the Republican heavy hitters started making pilgrimages to Texas to ‘meet’ with him was about a year or so out. That’s the first time I actually heard his name mentioned as a possible candidate, much less President. Everyone - and I mean pretty much \*everyone \*with any weight - thought it would be Jeb. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2013, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/22 "2013-10-18T02:45:09Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > No. No fucking way. > > I was _covering_ that election. And early in the cycle NO one thought anything about GWB other than ‘Huh, Jeb’s brother’s governor of Texas.’ He was considered a lightweight who’d do his time at governor and go back to oil, or baseball, or some damn thing. > > When all the Republican heavy hitters started making pilgrimages to Texas to ‘meet’ with him was about a year or so out. That’s the first time I actually heard his name mentioned as a possible candidate, much less President. Everyone - and I mean pretty much \*everyone \*with any weight - thought it would be Jeb. I disagree. Bush started with name recognition because his father had been President. When he ran for governor of Texas in 1994, there was speculation he would use that office as a stepping stone to the Presidency. And if you doubt speculation begins that early, [check it out](http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2013/03/how-george-p-bush-becomes-president-once-he-learns-how-to-make-a-speech-and-answer-questions.html/). ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2013, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/23 "2013-10-18T06:21:04Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > My personal opinions: > > Truman: “Noticed” in 1940. Became President in 1945. 5 years. > Eisenhower: “Noticed” in 1945. Elected in 1952. 7 years. > Kennedy: “Noticed” in 1956. Elected in 1960. 4 years. > Johnson: “Noticed” in 1956. Became President in 1963. 7 years. > Nixon: “Noticed” in 1948. Elected in 1968. 20 years. > Ford: “Noticed” in 1973. Became President in 1974. 8 months. > Carter: “Noticed” in 1976. Elected in 1976. 0 years. > George H.W. Bush: “Noticed” around 1973? Elected in 1988. Around 15 years. > Bill Clinton: “Noticed” in 1987. Elected in 1992. 5 years. > George W. Bush: “Noticed” in 1994. Elected in 2000. 6 years. I think Eisenhower was noticed a bit before that. By June 1944 or so, pretty much everyone in the western world knew who he was. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2013, 6:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/24 "2013-10-18T06:48:44Z")
Clinton was a fairly visible even before his '88 speech. The “Boy Governor” gave the Dem response to Reagan’s SOTU in '85 and was head of the Dem Governor’s Council in the mid-80’s as well. People were talking about him as a potential candidate for several years before his Convention speech. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2013, 6:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/25 "2013-10-18T06:58:30Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > I think Eisenhower was noticed a bit before that. By June 1944 or so, pretty much everyone in the western world knew who he was. He was certainly known but, in my opinion, there wasn’t much speculation about his political future until the war ended. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2013, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/26 "2013-10-18T08:24:53Z")
> [@SpoilerVirgin](#): > > I’ve always thought [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=268599) from July 2004 was a really fun read. Interesting how powerful many people found the future President’s speech. I should listen to it sometime-to me the most powerful piece of oratory President Obama delivered was at Newtown last year. ---
**Author:** ![puddleglum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puddleglum/32/137_2.png) [@puddleglum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puddleglum)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2013, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/27 "2013-10-18T14:11:12Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > No. No fucking way. > > I was _covering_ that election. And early in the cycle NO one thought anything about GWB other than ‘Huh, Jeb’s brother’s governor of Texas.’ He was considered a lightweight who’d do his time at governor and go back to oil, or baseball, or some damn thing. > > When all the Republican heavy hitters started making pilgrimages to Texas to ‘meet’ with him was about a year or so out. That’s the first time I actually heard his name mentioned as a possible candidate, much less President. Everyone - and I mean pretty much \*everyone \*with any weight - thought it would be Jeb. Before that election everyone thought Jeb would be the presidential candidate. George blew everyone away with how good a campaigner he was. He beat an incumbent by 7.5% in a state that had been dominated by Democrats for 120 years. Jeb losing meant that he did not have enough time to rehabilitate himself before 2000. I think alot of people had been talking about Obama as presidential material since he became the first black president of Harvard Review. People could have predicted Reagan in 1966 when he was elected governor of California in a landslide. Nixon could have been predicted based on his performance on HUAC exposing Alger Hiss. Hoover was thought of as presidential as early as 1919 when he oversaw food aid after WW1. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2013, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/28 "2013-10-18T14:35:29Z")
But that’s taking ‘plausibly thought’ to ludicrous levels. Just getting a mention in someone’s fantasy or an OpEd piece isn’t - to my thinking - enough to make one ‘plausible Presidential material’. By the standard being help up here any elected official at the national or gubernatorial level would be considered ‘noticed’. That’s too low a bar to be considered significant. And I want to reassert that - among the political press - no one expected GWB to even be a real candidate two years prior to his election. That was a really well-run campaign of name-building and candidate-making. ---
**Author:** ![Billdo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/billdo/32/315_2.png) [@Billdo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Billdo)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2013, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/29 "2013-10-21T01:48:17Z")
You all forgot: Barack Obama – Born, Kenya, 1961. False birth certificate and birth announcements filed in Hawaii so he could be eligible to be President, 1961. Elected President, 2008. ::: ducks and runs ::: ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2013, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088/30 "2013-10-21T06:42:36Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > But that’s taking ‘plausibly thought’ to ludicrous levels. Just getting a mention in someone’s fantasy or an OpEd piece isn’t - to my thinking - enough to make one ‘plausible Presidential material’. By the standard being help up here any elected official at the national or gubernatorial level would be considered ‘noticed’. That’s too low a bar to be considered significant. > > And I want to reassert that - among the political press - no one expected GWB to even be a real candidate two years prior to his election. That was a really well-run campaign of name-building and candidate-making. Except that George W. Bush actually was elected President in 2000. So if OpEd writers were predicting him as a possibility a couple of years ahead of the political press, who ended up looking more prescient? Of course, I’ll grant that there were a lot of people being named as possible future presidents in 1996 who didn’t get elected as well. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-the-us-presidents-when-was-the-earliest-they-could-have-plausibly-been-predicted/667088.md?page=1)