# For volcano watchers - maybe you'll get lucky! {Kilauea may be erupting} **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [September 5, 2023, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665 "2023-09-05T20:52:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 24
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2026, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/461 "2026-01-13T01:26:52Z")
The solution is obvious. Since current eruptions are very roughly at 6-week intervals, you need to plan a 2-month stay on the Big Island. At that rate you’re sure (hah, famous last words) to see one for real. A 7-foot Marlin? You’re talking some serious work there. Hat’s off to you. I pulled in a ~5’ billfish off the coast of Ecuador decades ago. I won, but the effort damned near killed me too. Big fish are strong. ---
**Author:** ![CairoCarol](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cairocarol/32/3825_2.png) [@CairoCarol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CairoCarol)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2026, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/462 "2026-01-13T01:39:11Z")
Here’s a semi-related island story: sometimes you can see the plume from the eruption if you go to a viewing spot along a road that’s just a 2-minute drive from our house. It can be quite striking when the sky is blue and yet there is this singular, vertical cloud on the horizon. Alas, not today. There were some low clouds that obscured anything we might have seen from the volcano. However, there was a pomelo on the side of the road. That’s not uncommon - fruit just appears on the ground here, because it fell off a tree or a truck. While I’ve been out running I’ve picked up passion fruit, strawberry guava, oranges, avocados … a few days ago I ran by three nice-looking durian but it was impractical to pick up even one with my bare hands (they’re big and thorny), so I left them be. So we grabbed the pomelo and took it home for breakfast. Quite tasty! ---
**Author:** ![commasense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/commasense/32/3017_2.png) [@commasense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/commasense)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2026, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/463 "2026-01-13T01:48:06Z")
My wife and I will be on the big island in early March and I just booked a helicopter tour. Wish us luck. ---
**Author:** ![CairoCarol](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cairocarol/32/3825_2.png) [@CairoCarol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CairoCarol)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2026, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/464 "2026-01-13T04:20:57Z")
Not sure when the current episode fizzled, but it is definitely done now. Plenty of glow and trickling lava, but no fountaining. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2026, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/465 "2026-01-13T12:24:58Z")
The report has come out. It died at 18:04 HT. As of now = 0730 ET = 0230 HT that finale will be visible on the stream for about another 4 hours. I just watched it on V3. It had been fountaining higher than the surrounding rim but not with great volume. Then the volume dropped a bit and the height increased. Then over literally 30 seconds it went from top of fountain well over the rim to nothing. Reminded me of the big finale of a fireworks show, but for a small one. One last oomph, then abrupt silence, darkness, and slowly clearing smoke. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2026, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/466 "2026-01-23T12:14:52Z")
Here’s an excerpt from the latest volcano info from USGS (bolding mine): > [@Hawaii Volcano Obsevartory Jan 22 2026 Information Statement](#): > > The impact of the recent earthquake swarms on the next episode of lava fountaining, if any, is unknown at this time, but there have not been changes in ground deformation patterns to suggest that magma has intruded or is intruding into a new area. Between swarms, Kīlauea’s inflationary deformation continues, and **the window for the start of episode 41 is currently estimated to be between January 23 and 25** if the inflation rate remains consistent. > > - See this Information Statement for more details on the recent earthquake swarms: **[USGS Volcano Notice - DOI-USGS-HVO-2026-01-15T06:34:34+00:00](https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans-public/notice/DOI-USGS-HVO-2026-01-15T06:34:34+00:00)**. > > - See the January 22, 2026, “Volcano Watch” article for more information, including a map showing recent earthquake locations and a plot showing Kīlauea summit GPS data: **[Volcano Watch — What do small earthquakes beneath Kīlauea summit mean for the ongoing eruption? | U.S. Geological Survey](https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/news/volcano-watch-what-do-small-earthquakes-beneath-kilauea-summit-mean-ongoing)** So today or this weekend should give us a show. ---
**Author:** ![Mollie\_Magill](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mollie_magill/32/20882_2.png) [@Mollie\_Magill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mollie_Magill)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2026, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/467 "2026-01-23T14:07:31Z")
V3 shows spitting an spurting right now. I wish there were some sort of time lapse sequence available to show the ground deformation. That would be fascinating to see. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2026, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/468 "2026-01-23T14:34:23Z")
The tiltmeters are calibrated in microradians. Which are ~= 1/20,000th of a degree. The slope has shifted about 4 microradians ~= 1/5,000th of one degree over the last few days. And seems to shift about 1/500th of a degree peak-to-trough over an eruptive episode. The GPS sensors show the ground there rising and falling a few tens centimeters = a few inches over the last few years. The motions are very real, but very subtle on a human scale. You can play with all that data on the interactive map here: **[Hawaiian Volcano Observatory | U.S. Geological Survey](https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo)** ---
**Author:** ![CairoCarol](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cairocarol/32/3825_2.png) [@CairoCarol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CairoCarol)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2026, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/469 "2026-01-24T21:29:37Z")
Okay, it just started! My niece and her husband were planning to wander around Hilo this morning then drive to Volcano. Calling them now to tell them to get moving. I hope they are already on their way over! ---
**Author:** ![Ponderoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ponderoid/32/19221_2.png) [@Ponderoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ponderoid)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2026, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/470 "2026-01-24T21:48:46Z")
Wow, that’s the tallest I’ve seen since this thread started. I think the v2 cam is zoomed all the way back as far as it can go and the fountain is still going out of frame. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2026, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/471 "2026-01-24T22:16:51Z")
Hooray! Quite the show; Best I’ve ever seen. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2026, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/472 "2026-01-24T22:37:09Z")
Late add: Ash / rock chunks are falling in the foreground of all 3 cams. Nothing that looks very large or heavy. Yet. ---
**Author:** ![Ponderoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ponderoid/32/19221_2.png) [@Ponderoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ponderoid)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2026, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/473 "2026-01-24T22:57:06Z")
Okay I take that back about V2 cam’s ability to zoom out. It’s zoomed way out now much further back than when I posted. That’s still an impressively tall plume. ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2026, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/474 "2026-01-24T23:12:09Z")
As I post V3 cam is the best, but I do like switching cams to check. The other cams do show the oozing after the spouting better. Brian ---
**Author:** ![CairoCarol](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cairocarol/32/3825_2.png) [@CairoCarol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CairoCarol)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2026, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/475 "2026-01-24T23:24:39Z")
I just got an alert from our civil defense saying that Hawaii Volcanoes National Park is closed due to ash fall. I hope my niece and her husband got in and out of the park to see the fountaining! (If not, at least they’ll have an above-average story of being thwarted from seeing the eruption.) ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2026, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/476 "2026-01-24T23:37:22Z")
HVO’s latest Kilauea update dated 01/24 ar 12:18 HT says the fountains exceed 500m ~= 1640 feet. About a 1/4 mile tall! I bet the noise is amazing. That update is **[Kīlauea - Volcano Updates | U.S. Geological Survey](https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/volcano-updates)**. But as they issue new updates this one will scroll off into the archive, so this link will point to different content soon enough. ---
**Author:** ![gkster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gkster/32/14107_2.png) [@gkster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gkster)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2026, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/477 "2026-01-24T23:51:52Z")
That’s quite a show! I think that V3 gives the bst view of multiple plumes and fountains. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2026, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/478 "2026-01-25T04:44:19Z")
And now 1840HT = 2340 ET, the fountaining is down to small. Small is still a hundred meters high, but compared to the start, this is piddling. I wonder how much that means the remining show will be short-lived versus it will be long-lasting but not tall. Which is really a question about how the volume of magma on the move is connected to its pressure. Clearly we already blew off a LOT of the very high pressure that was available 7+ hours ago when this thing got going like crazy. But what now: low and slow, or one and done? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2026, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/479 "2026-01-25T12:10:19Z")
The show quit at 1929 HT Sat = 0029 Sun ET. As of now (~0700 ET) that’ll be visible on the cams for another ~6 hours. ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2026, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/480 "2026-01-26T12:14:26Z")
Summary video - some good footage of jets and falling tephra: [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/a54-TgVvA64/maxresdefault.jpg "Eruption Update: Falling Volcanic Rock Closes National Park, Ashfall Alert (Jan. 24, 2026)") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a54-TgVvA64) Brian [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665.md?page=23) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665.md?page=25)