# For volcano watchers - maybe you'll get lucky! {Kilauea may be erupting}

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665>\
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\
**Created:** [September 5, 2023, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665 "2023-09-05T20:52:19Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 30

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**Author:** ![Ponderoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ponderoid/32/19221_2.png) [@Ponderoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ponderoid)\
**Post date:** [May 6, 2026, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/581 "2026-05-06T22:24:01Z")

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> [@gkster](#):
>
> It’s starting up a bit again. Not high fountaining, but enough flame from 2 vents to make it interesting.

I can’t go back that far now to see exactly what you were seeing, but past experience suggests that’s volcanic gas burning. The USGS doesn’t expect it to start oozing or fountaining again for at least a week, probably longer.

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**Author:** ![gkster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gkster/32/14107_2.png) [@gkster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gkster)\
**Post date:** [May 7, 2026, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/582 "2026-05-07T00:46:09Z")

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Volcanic gas burning makes sense. It was yellow-white, not orange like lava, and it did remind me of a large version of flame from a butane lighter or gas stove.

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**Author:** ![CairoCarol](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cairocarol/32/3825_2.png) [@CairoCarol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CairoCarol)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2026, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/583 "2026-05-12T18:42:21Z")

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Another volcano (in Alaska) might be worth keeping an eye on now - I just got the notice below. (AFAIK they don’t have cool webcams like HVNP, but if it goes off we’ll get some satellite shots at least, I suppose).

**AVO/USGS Volcanic Activity Notice**

Volcano: **Kupreanof** (VNUM #312060)

Current Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY  
Previous Volcano Alert Level: UNASSIGNED

Current Aviation Color Code: YELLOW  
Previous Aviation Color Code: UNASSIGNED

**Issued:** Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 9:01 AM AKDT  
**Source:** Alaska Volcano Observatory  
**Notice Number:** 2026/A322  
**Location:** N 56 deg W 159 deg 47 min  
**Elevation:** 6217 ft (1895 m)  
**Area:** Alaska Peninsula

**Summary:** Seismic activity and volcanic gas emissions increased over the past few months and continue at Mount Kupreanof. AVO is increasing the Color Code and Alert Level to YELLOW/ADVISORY.

**Volcanic Activity:**

Seismic activity and volcanic gas emissions increased over the past few months and now continue at elevated levels at Mount Kupreanof. This activity is likely caused by a magmatic intrusion beneath the volcano. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) is therefore increasing the Aviation Color Code to YELLOW and the Volcano Alert Level to ADVISORY in response to this sustained volcanic unrest.

**Summary of activity and hazards**

- Seismicity was first detected in February 2026 and has increased in recent months, with earthquakes as large as magnitude 3.1 detected.

- Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions were detected beginning on April 4 with emission rates of ~100 to 1,000 tons per day, which are well above the background rate of \<100 tons per day.

- These signals likely indicate a magmatic intrusion beneath Mount Kupreanof.

- AVO is therefore increasing the Aviation Color Code to YELLOW and the Volcano Alert Level to ADVISORY in response to this sustained volcanic unrest.

- Data do not suggest an eruption is imminent and further signs of increased unrest would be expected prior to eruption.

- There is no local monitoring network at Mount Kupreanof. Seismicity is detected using only regional stations, which limits detection of smaller events (magnitudes \<2) and results in large location errors.

**For more information:**

- AVO Information Statement from May 8, 2026, with further details about this activity and interpretations: [https://avo.alaska.edu/news/hans/DOI-USGS-AVO-2026-05-08T19:12:14+00:00](https://avo.alaska.edu/news/hans/DOI-USGS-AVO-2026-05-08T19:12:14+00:00)

- Mount Kupreanof on the AVO website with information about the volcano and current monitoring data: [https://avo.alaska.edu/volcano/kupreanof](https://avo.alaska.edu/volcano/kupreanof)

**Remarks:**

Mount Kupreanof is a heavily glaciated stratovolcano on the Alaska Peninsula with no known historical eruptions. Very little is known about its eruptive history. A single debris flow or block-and-ash flow deposit with a suspected Holocene age has been mapped in a valley south of the volcano. Eruptions will likely produce lahars and pyroclastic flows on the volcano’s flanks and into the surrounding uninhabited valleys. Ash plumes could affect communities and airplanes downwind of the volcano. A vigorous fumarole field just west of the summit produces persistent steam plumes.

There is no real-time geophysical monitoring network at Mount Kupreanof. The closest functioning seismometers are approximately 17 miles (27 km) to the east of the volcano as part of the Mount Veniaminof network. Mount Kupreanof is also monitored by satellite data, remote infrasound and lightning networks, and visual observations from pilots and mariners passing by the volcano.

**Contacts:**

Matt Haney, Scientist-in-Charge, USGS [mhaney@usgs.gov](mailto:mhaney@usgs.gov) (907) 786-7497

David Fee, Coordinating Scientist, UAFGI [dfee1@alaska.edu](mailto:dfee1@alaska.edu) (907) 378-5460

Contact AVO: [https://avo.alaska.edu/contact](https://avo.alaska.edu/contact)

The Alaska Volcano Observatory is a cooperative program of the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, and the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys.

**View online at:** [https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans-public/notice/DOI-USGS-AVO-2026-05-11T22%3A22%3A27%2B00%3A00](https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans-public/notice/DOI-USGS-AVO-2026-05-11T22%3A22%3A27%2B00%3A00)

**You have received this message from the Volcano Notification Service (VNS).**  
[Change VNS settings/STOP](https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vns/account?t=1df1d6aabe42099f4282)  
From VNS

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**Author:** ![pjd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pjd/32/3009_2.png) [@pjd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjd)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2026, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/584 "2026-05-12T18:53:05Z")

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Mmmmmm .. fresh lava !  
Thanks CC.

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**Author:** ![CairoCarol](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cairocarol/32/3825_2.png) [@CairoCarol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CairoCarol)\
**Post date:** [May 13, 2026, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/585 "2026-05-13T18:58:26Z")

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Hmm … USGS is predicting that the next Kīlauea episode will begin today or tomorrow, and I agree that the tiltmeter looks pretty promising, but I haven’t seen any precursor activity yet!

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**Author:** ![CairoCarol](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cairocarol/32/3825_2.png) [@CairoCarol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CairoCarol)\
**Post date:** [May 14, 2026, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/586 "2026-05-14T03:34:39Z")

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Okay, precursor activity (a bit of spitting) just starting now. Most visible from V1 and a little from V2; can’t see it from V3.

Of course, unless you see this post immediately and check for yourself, it’ll probably be different when you check. But whatever, looks like we’re starting to get ready for the next episode.

ETA: I can see it on all three cameras now.

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [May 14, 2026, 11:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/587 "2026-05-14T11:29:52Z")

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As of now, ~0730 ET = 0130 HT on Thu, so ~8h after Carol’s post, there’s no spitting and no glow across the crater floor from any previously oozing lava. Glow and outgassing and that’s it.

Metaphoricially speaking, the pot’s not boiling, it’s not even simmering yet, but the water is moving funny in our pot. Getting closer …

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**Author:** ![Mollie\_Magill](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mollie_magill/32/20882_2.png) [@Mollie\_Magill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mollie_Magill)\
**Post date:** [May 14, 2026, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/588 "2026-05-14T12:47:17Z")

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> [@LSLGuy](#):
>
> Metaphoricially speaking, the pot’s not boiling, it’s not even simmering yet, but the water is moving funny in our pot. Getting closer …

But there is definitely upswelling of the area. V1 shows a very bright vent with plenty of outgassing, but no spitting that I can see.

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**Author:** ![Mollie\_Magill](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mollie_magill/32/20882_2.png) [@Mollie\_Magill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mollie_Magill)\
**Post date:** [May 14, 2026, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/589 "2026-05-14T14:25:26Z")

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There is now flow. V3 has the best view.

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [May 14, 2026, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/590 "2026-05-14T14:33:49Z")

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Yaay! You can rewind to the very start at 0258 HT = 0858 ET, roughly 90 minutes ago as I type.

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [May 14, 2026, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/591 "2026-05-14T14:49:17Z")

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And at about 0430HT = 1030 ET it briefly splashed / fountained a smidgen, then quit altogether. So a 90 minute warm-up session.

Nothing now but cooling lava slowly sliding downhill.

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**Author:** ![Mollie\_Magill](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mollie_magill/32/20882_2.png) [@Mollie\_Magill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mollie_Magill)\
**Post date:** [May 14, 2026, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/592 "2026-05-14T15:57:22Z")

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Flow just started up again.

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [May 14, 2026, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/593 "2026-05-14T20:07:50Z")

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Still flowing an hour later with a small hemispherical mound of liquid lava.

It’s very non-viscous = hot. A good sign for a good show.

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**Author:** ![gkster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gkster/32/14107_2.png) [@gkster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gkster)\
**Post date:** [May 15, 2026, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/594 "2026-05-15T02:03:34Z")

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The show is on! A wide fountain is in action, one clearly visible on V1 On V3, as well as the wide one, there’s an occasional small fountain on the left, visible when the smoke lets up.

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [May 15, 2026, 9:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/595 "2026-05-15T09:37:59Z")

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Yaay. HVO says it got going at ~1430 HT = 2030 ET on Thu. Right now at 2330 HT Thu = 0530 ET Fri, so ~9 hours later, it’s still going nicely from the right vent on V3.

It’s not real tall now, and much lower and less volume than it was a couple hours after it began. I doubt this one will last more than another couple hours. We’ll see.

But at least for another hour or so you can rewind all the way to the beginning of the show.

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [May 15, 2026, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/596 "2026-05-15T12:13:54Z")

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And there we went. ~0030HT = 0630 ET it quit. About 90 minutes ago as I type.

Oops. I see now in my previous post that I said it started at ~1430 HT = 2030 ET. That’s off by an hour. 🤦‍♂️ It actually started ~1530 HT = 2130 ET.

Right at 9 hours of fountaining.

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**Author:** ![Mollie\_Magill](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mollie_magill/32/20882_2.png) [@Mollie\_Magill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mollie_Magill)\
**Post date:** [May 15, 2026, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/597 "2026-05-15T12:44:41Z")

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Madam Pele -

I don’t know what I did to tck you off, bout would it be possible for you to put on a show when I’m not in bed?

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**Author:** ![pjd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pjd/32/3009_2.png) [@pjd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjd)\
**Post date:** [May 15, 2026, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/598 "2026-05-15T13:12:55Z")

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Yes, I’ll second that !  
I see at 22:37:00 (Hawaii time) there was what looks like a small  
tornado, or some sort of spiraling vent thing just in front of the lava.  
It fizzles out at about 22:39:00. Interesting.

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [May 15, 2026, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/599 "2026-05-15T13:50:44Z")

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You can rewind the live stream by up to 12 hours. You can’t watch the start any more as of right now, but you can watch from nearly the start all the way to the end.

The tail end of the show will drop off the live stream this evening at around 1830 ET. So you’ve got 8+ hours from now where you can still see at least some of the fun stuff.

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**Author:** ![CairoCarol](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cairocarol/32/3825_2.png) [@CairoCarol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CairoCarol)\
**Post date:** [May 30, 2026, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/for-volcano-watchers-maybe-youll-get-lucky-kilauea-may-be-erupting/989665/600 "2026-05-30T15:48:12Z")

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Precursor activity has started for the next episode. I wouldn’t be surprised if it starts and finishes over the next 24 hours.

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