# Forbidden Thread: Mafia V **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 26, 2007, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509 "2007-06-26T19:02:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![DiggitCamara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/df788c/32.png) [@DiggitCamara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DiggitCamara)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2007, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/281 "2007-08-16T22:00:51Z")
[QUOTE=Scuba\_Ben] It’s been something like 8 Days, and the town’s caught only one scum – this is “pretty darn close”??? I’d hate to see what “scum cakewalk” looks like from the wrong side. (snip) [/QUOTE] They were only an Apprentice away from the “scum cakewalk”. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2007, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/282 "2007-08-18T13:45:09Z")
So what do we think about **zuma** ’s accusations? In vino veritas? Me, I’m pretty sure **MHaye** is legit. It seems to me that a fake apprentice who was trying to construct a plausible claim would have thrown at least one cloudy or verifiably wrong reading into his claim post, and that this reading would most likely have come somewhere in the middle. **MHaye** ’s pattern of one wrong reading - a string of six correct readings - another wrong reading is consistent with how random items are distributed in real life, but not with how most people _think_ they’re distributed. (In other words, someone who flips a coin 100 times is likely to have some long strings of heads or tails – HHHHH or TTTTTT – while someone who is _pretending_ to have flipped a coin a hundred times would tend to avoid those long strings, because we think they _look_ implausible. If that makes sense at all.) Maybe it’s just as well they went after **Zeriel** , if his death causes the other monks to claim. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2007, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/283 "2007-08-18T15:53:26Z")
Well, **zuma** can only be so confident if he is in fact the Apprentice. If that’s the case then it looks as if the Cultists decided to sacrifice **MHaye** in order to get the Disciple to use the once-only ‘protect 2 players’ power, in which case there will be no protection tonight (except from the Martyr, but we don’t know how that works). I’m not sure if the Cult would really think that was necessary, as they seem to be way ahead (although **Blaster Master** said that the Cultists also felt as if they were losing badly, which I really don’t understand). And if **MHaye** is lying then he has come up with a pretty courageous claim, with no missed readings AOD and 2 new confirmed Believers ( **FCOD** and **sachertorte** ). If either of those were non-believers then **Mhaye** would have been exposed without outing the real Apprentice. Okay, **sachertorte** is away but if **MHaye** turns out to be Cult then **FCOD** probably is too. It would have been far safer (and even look more plausible) to simply report 1 less reading. And yes, I think the remaining Monks should claim, just so the Apprentice does not waste a reading on one of them. In fact, the non-believers should also claim - they will eventually be dunked as a result but again, as part of the town they can’t afford to waste any Apprentice readings (I would have role claimed yesterDay if I was still playing). ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2007, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/284 "2007-08-18T17:11:24Z")
Ow! My most of me! Part of my problem playing a Monk is the fact that I was uncomfortable making a decision FOR the monks given the circumstances (and you can PM me, if you’d like to know what I mean). I’d also like a PM of storyteller’s funny story. Frankly, I think the town still has a decent chance now. The scum wasted a perfectly good night kill on little old me instead of making the right play for either the disciple or apprentice–the fact they killed me instead of fishing in the pool tells me that Mhaye and CatinaSuit are both on the up and up, since slaying a monk isn’t exactly a coup. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2007, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/285 "2007-08-18T17:12:32Z")
I don’t know WHAT Zuma’s deal is. I’m waiting anxiously to hear about it. ---
**Author:** ![DiggitCamara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/df788c/32.png) [@DiggitCamara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DiggitCamara)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2007, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/286 "2007-08-18T21:52:04Z")
[QUOTE=Captain Klutz] (snip) And if **MHaye** is lying then he has come up with a pretty courageous claim, with no missed readings AOD and 2 new confirmed Believers ( **FCOD** and **sachertorte** ). If either of those were non-believers then **Mhaye** would have been exposed without outing the real Apprentice. Okay, **sachertorte** is away but if **MHaye** turns out to be Cult then **FCOD** probably is too. It would have been far safer (and even look more plausible) to simply report 1 less reading. (snip) [/QUOTE] Actually, I’d guess what the Cultists really wanted was to draw the Apprentice out last Day. The thing is: with **zuma** ’s claim the probable result will be that he’ll be lynched toDay. Right now, there are 14 remaining players. Let’s suppose toDay the town loses two players. At worst we’re talking then about toMorrow, with 12 players, 4 of them Cultists. The problem is that toMorrow a Cultist will die. And the investigations will have thrown in information that will (probably) cast a spotlight on several players… It’s going to be an interesting couple of Days… ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2007, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/287 "2007-08-19T01:24:37Z")
Oh, for the love of pete, the monk claims. NOW I know why the cult killed me. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2007, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/288 "2007-08-19T01:27:27Z")
Augh. How can this be MORE suspenseful now that I’m dead? ---
**Author:** ![Kat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/b19c9b/32.png) [@Kat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kat)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2007, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/289 "2007-08-19T01:58:34Z")
How do you think _we_ feel? We’ve been going through this a lot longer than you. Have some alcohol. It helps. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2007, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/290 "2007-08-19T05:19:40Z")
Yeah, true–but I also now realize I was killed to set up the great monk shakedown of 2007. Today’s probably going to be the turning point unless one side or the other blinks again. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2007, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/291 "2007-08-19T05:25:53Z")
I’m talking and I can’t shut up! I think probably if I’m right about the number of scum, though, that they’re risking far too many of themselves on this Monk play–at most, they get one townie monk dunk in trade for two of themselves. Since I guess at 3-5 scum left, losing two will hurt. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2007, 9:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/292 "2007-08-19T09:48:58Z")
And **sachertorte** has just announced his return. This is going to be interesting to watch… ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2007, 10:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/293 "2007-08-19T10:07:20Z")
**MHaye** investigated sachertorte - he can say for sure if he’s a monk (assuming people believe\*\* MHaye\*\*). I think the cult have overreached themselves… ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2007, 11:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/294 "2007-08-19T11:04:10Z")
[QUOTE=amrussell] **MHaye** investigated sachertorte - he can say for sure if he’s a monk (assuming people believe\*\* MHaye\*\*). I think the cult have overreached themselves… [/QUOTE] Holy crap, what’s going on? **MHaye** has just revealed that **sachertorte** is a Monk, so **Idle Thoughts** must be lying, so both he and **zuma** must be Cult (or both **MHaye** and **Cookies** are Cult, but I would have expected the real Apprentice to have claimed by now). It looks like the **Zeriel** night kill and the Monk claim were for the purpose of flushing out the remaining Monks, so that the Cult can reliably recruit. The recruit is going to be extremely difficult to identify, so the town needs to go after the Prophet to stop this happening. This means that toDay they need to leave both **Idle Thoughts** and **zuma** alone and dunk one of the unknown players (but I’ve no idea which one). Also, the Alchemist should block **Idle Thoughts**. Interestingly, **Idle Thoughts** was the final vote that dunked **Kat** over **Malacandra** on Day 2. This gained **Idle** lots of town cred, so why is he the one to sacrifice himself? I don’t understand… This game has really come alive. ---
**Author:** ![Kat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/b19c9b/32.png) [@Kat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kat)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2007, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/295 "2007-08-19T13:26:43Z")
:smack: ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2007, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/296 "2007-08-19T16:05:50Z")
Right now, a tentative guesswork: Hockey is playing both sides against the middle by trying to divert away from the potential Prophet. The cult forgot MHaye could do that. There will probably be a conversion attempt tonight. There are at least four cultists left, otherwise this play is insane instead of just crazy enough to work. Now I’m interested in knowing what the rationale for saving Mal’s ass by Idle was–that seems in retrospect like a bad play if he is in fact scum. ---
**Author:** ![Doctor\_Who](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ed8c4c/32.png) [@Doctor\_Who](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Doctor_Who)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2007, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/297 "2007-08-19T20:43:47Z")
Jeez - what to make of Idle’s incessant kill-me-now droning? ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2007, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/298 "2007-08-19T23:40:13Z")
Without giving away the truth officially - Maybe it’s just that I know the truth, but I can’t believe it isn’t wildly obvious to the town what’s going on. This is utterly bizarre. I have a feeling that I know the next leg of the scum move, and if it is what I think it is, then I will be terribly impressed. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2007, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/299 "2007-08-20T00:16:24Z")
[QUOTE=storyteller0910] Without giving away the truth officially - Maybe it’s just that I know the truth, but I can’t believe it isn’t wildly obvious to the town what’s going on. This is utterly bizarre. I have a feeling that I know the next leg of the scum move, and if it is what I think it is, then I will be terribly impressed. [/QUOTE] Could you PM me with your analysis? I wanna see if it matches my thoughts. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2007, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509/300 "2007-08-20T00:27:54Z")
The one other thing I want to say in public is that I think what the scum have done brilliantly in this game is take advantage of the town’s tendency to avoid Occam’s Razor. The town has demonstrated over and over again that they will reject simpler explanations in favor of more complex - and less likely - explanations. They basically have all the tools they need to win the game, but because the scum is playing perfectly on their need to overanalyze and keep secrets from one another, they are about to hand it over on a platter. It’s amazing. I mean, there’s one player with a potentially game-changing ability that he still hasn’t even _described_ to the rest of the town yet. That’s information hoarding to a point that just astounds me. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/forbidden-thread-mafia-v/409509.md?page=16)