# Fork Hillary 3: The Final Forking **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 18, 2008, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726 "2008-03-18T00:01:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 36
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/701 "2008-04-07T02:18:45Z")
[QUOTE=Left Hand of Dorkness] I believe she’s right, that candidates tell second-hand and third-hand anecdotes all the time without exhaustively vetting them. - [/QUOTE] Ronald Reagan was famous for telling altered or made-up anecdotes. Is that who Hillary wants to emulate? Seems to me that with her record on health care she’d want to be as transparent and honest as possible. I don’t think any of the candidates are being honest with Americans regarding a national health care plan, especially on the subject of cost. Telling fake stories to boost your credibility is only part of the problem. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 10:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/702 "2008-04-07T10:50:08Z")
[QUOTE=Jackmannii] Ronald Reagan was famous for telling altered or made-up anecdotes. Is that who Hillary wants to emulate? [/QUOTE] I missed the part of the story where we know that she deliberately altered the anecdote; can someone link to that? Daniel ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/703 "2008-04-07T11:42:17Z")
**Shayna** (whotta surprise) had linked to it in the “Handicapping thread” - [Here.](http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/05/us/politics/05woman.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin) Here is how Clinton heard the story: > [@](#): > > Deputy Holman said in a telephone interview that a conversation about health care led him to relate the story of Ms. Bachtel. He never mentioned the name of the hospital that supposedly turned her away because he did not know it, he said. > > Deputy Holman knew Ms. Bachtel’s story only secondhand, having learned it from close relatives of the woman. Ms. Bachtel’s relatives did not return phone calls Friday. > > As Deputy Holman understood it, Ms. Bachtel had died of complications from a stillbirth after being turned away by a local hospital for her failure to pay $100 upfront. > > “I mentioned this story to Senator Clinton, and she apparently took to it and liked it,” Here is how it gets told: > [@](#): > > As she tells it, the woman was turned away twice by a local hospital when she was experiencing difficulty with her pregnancy. “The hospital said, ‘Well, you don’t have insurance.’ She said, ‘No, I don’t.’ They said, ‘Well, we can’t see you until you give $100.’ She said, ‘Where am I going to get $100?’ > > “The next time she came back to the hospital, she came in an ambulance,” Mrs. Clinton continued. “She was in distress. The doctors and the nurses worked on her and couldn’t save the baby.” Note now it’s turned away twice (she was never turned away at all) and the added details of the ambulance ride, and the conversation that never happened. Never let the facts get in the way of a good story. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/704 "2008-04-07T13:19:25Z")
[www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com) has ARG calling Pennsylvania a dead heat. 45-45, Hillary to Barack. That can _not_ be good. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/705 "2008-04-07T13:27:01Z")
That [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) site was fascinating. I thought it kind of odd that Obama’s color was brown and Hillary’s was pink, but very interesting analysis nonetheless. The last thing Obama should do is pull ahead in PA with 2 weeks to go. This will mobilize the same sympathy vote that Hillary got in NH and also make Hillary tempted to go nuclear. As an underdog, the Clinton machine is quite ferocious. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/706 "2008-04-07T13:58:09Z")
[QUOTE=E-Sabbath] [www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com) has ARG calling Pennsylvania a dead heat. 45-45, Hillary to Barack. That can _not_ be good. [/QUOTE] Yeah, but it’s ARG. They don’t mean very much. Still, when four of the last five PA polls have shown Hillary’s lead down to 5% or less, you’ve gotta wonder, even if they’re crap polls. With any luck, last week’s Survey USA poll will be the first of a weekly series of polls. If so, we’d probably hear the results tomorrow. If they show the race closing significantly, I’ll believe it. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/707 "2008-04-07T16:04:25Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] The last thing Obama should do is pull ahead in PA with 2 weeks to go. This will mobilize the same sympathy vote that Hillary got in NH and also make Hillary tempted to go nuclear. As an underdog, the Clinton machine is quite ferocious. [/QUOTE] 😕 Are you saying he has to lose it to win it?! ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/708 "2008-04-07T16:13:54Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] 😕 Are you saying he has to lose it to win it?! [/QUOTE] No I’m just saying that he has tended to have great Saturdays and lousy Mondays. New Hampshire was solid for him at one point, he was much closer in Ohio and in some polls led in Texas. In California, polls showed him to be closer than the final tally. I think the public likes the underdog and gives a last day boost to whoever is in second. I’d feel a lot better about him being 2 points down going into the 22nd than be 2 points up. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/709 "2008-04-07T16:42:09Z")
I’m prefer to see Obama 5 points down on the Monday before the vote and lose by only 2 points – that would beat expectations and thus be a win for him. Of course what I really want is for him to win PA outright, but that’s probably not going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/710 "2008-04-07T17:37:33Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] Of course what I really want is for him to win PA outright, but that’s probably not going to happen. [/QUOTE] It could happen, though. Oh, I’d bet against it, but there’s just the sense of a final shift in the air. Even if Hillary wins PA, I can’t see her winning by enough to convince her backers that she’s still got game. Obama’s up by 9% and 10%, respectively, in the Gallup and Rasmussen trackers. He’s had leads that big in each of them before, but I don’t think it’s happened at the same time. According to [DemConWatch](http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html), Hillary’s superdelegate lead is down to 24, as a result of this recent bit of action: > [@](#): > > 4-5-08 - Removed DNC Helen Langan (UT) from Clinton and put her on the uncommitted list. > Added Missouri add-on Susan Montee (MO)# , Delaware add-on Rob Carver (DE)#, Yvette Alexander(DC)# for Obama. > Added Harry Thomas Jr.(DC)# for Clinton. > 4-6-08 Replaced Mary Lou Winters (Clinton) with Elsie Burkhalter as DNC member from LA. Burkhalter is being placed on the uncommitted list as of now. > > - Added North Dakota add-on Dan Hannaher (ND)# for Obama. > - Added DNC Margarett Campbell (MT) for Obama. That was +5 for Obama, -1 for Clinton, over the weekend. All the Hillary coverage lately has been about imaginary Bosnian snipers, imagined details of an uninsured woman’s death, Mark Penn playing both sides while running Hillary’s campaign, and last but not least, whether and when she’ll withdraw. And all the [PA polls](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html#polls) have the momentum swinging Obama’s way. That’s a lot all swinging in the same direction at once, this late in the game when things tend to be less volatile. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/711 "2008-04-07T17:47:29Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] All the Hillary coverage lately has been about imaginary Bosnian snipers, imagined details of an uninsured woman’s death, Mark Penn playing both sides while running Hillary’s campaign, and last but not least, whether and when she’ll withdraw. [/QUOTE] Don’t forget the unpaid bills. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/712 "2008-04-07T17:51:22Z")
[QUOTE=Gangster Octopus] Don’t forget the unpaid bills. [/QUOTE] I don’t think that will make a difference to anyone but the creditors. She’s well enough known that she can campaign on a shoestring now and I don’t think she’d lose that much of her base. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/713 "2008-04-07T17:59:18Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] I don’t think that will make a difference to anyone but the creditors. She’s well enough known that she can campaign on a shoestring now and I don’t think she’d lose that much of her base. [/QUOTE] I just meant that it doesn’t look particularly good. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/714 "2008-04-07T18:18:59Z")
Meanwhile, [the Obama campaign returns a $100 donation](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/7/124812/3285/604/491642): > [@](#): > > I just had the strangest experience. A presidential candidate gave me back my donation, told me would not accept it because of what I do for a living, and it left me more committeed to the candidate and conviced that he is the person that must be the next president. > > [snip] > > You see, I am a registered lobbyist for a non-profit organziation. We are a non-partisan, non-political membership organziation, we do not have a political action committee and strictly observe a policy of non-particpation in any event that even remotely appears political. I serve as their legislative rep, trying to ensure that expertise of our membership is heard by public officials on issues related to their area of expertise (public safety). > > [snip] > > It’s not often you get told that you are persona non grata and end up praising the person who exiled you. But that what I am doing. Obama actions are living up to his words. Through the actions of his campaign he is demonstrating that his values are real and his commitment is certain. > > Another aspect that is quite impressive to me is that the Obama campaign has a mechnism set up to check each donation, even one as small as mine, against the lobbyist database, and then return it. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/715 "2008-04-07T18:22:32Z")
You forgot to include this part: > [@](#): > > p.s.: As a side note, last year my spouse had set up automatic monthly payments to Hillary (nothing big $10/month) but after switching to Obama, had to battle with the Clinton campaign to cancel the automatic payment. I find it ironic that one campaign won’t take my money, the other won’t give it back! > > Updated to add: I though we had finally stopped the payments to the Clinton Campaign, but after checking with my spouse, it turns out they are still taking the payments 3-4 months after we asked them to stop. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/716 "2008-04-07T19:07:44Z")
Another Super D for Obama. [Hillary’s Hill Just Keeps Getting Steeper To Climb](http://www.cnbc.com/id/23995758) > [@John Harwood @ CNBC.com](#): > > Mark Penn’s meeting with Colombian diplomats on passing a new trade deal embarrassed Hillary Clinton at a time she can’t afford to lose any blue collar votes. And his ouster as her chief strategist adds turmoil she doesn’t need as she struggles to catch up with Barack Obama. But for what’s most damaging to Clinton right now, focus not on Mark Penn but on Margaret Campbell. She’s a Montana state legislator who today is announcing her endorsement of Barack Obama. That makes her the 69th Democratic super-delegate to back Obama since Feb 5 --more– ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/717 "2008-04-07T20:16:27Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] That [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) site was fascinating. I thought it kind of odd that Obama’s color was brown and Hillary’s was pink, but very interesting analysis nonetheless. [/QUOTE] The site owner admits to being tongue-in-cheek about the brown/pink divide. He alsready ran through the other colors in previous primary maps and said that, as long as it’s all about demographics these days… ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/718 "2008-04-07T20:44:22Z")
[If nothing else, this is quite humourous](http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/04/clinton_man_has_obama_moment.html) > [@Frank James @baltimore.com weblogs](#): > > Was Terry McAuliffe, chairman of Sen. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, engaging in his own sort of hedging strategy at a recent meeting of Washington State Democrats? Or was the former Democratic National Committee chair engaging in a kumbayah, all-us-Democrats-are-in-this-together moment? --more– I don’t know what to make of it. If it’s real, what the heck is Terry McAuliffe’s story here? …it seems to be raining sabots on this campaign. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/719 "2008-04-07T23:04:54Z")
You guys do know who the site owner of [electoral-vote.org](http://electoral-vote.org) is? He’s the man who literally wrote the book on computer operating systems. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2008, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/720 "2008-04-08T01:19:45Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] Meanwhile, [the Obama campaign returns a $100 donation](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/7/124812/3285/604/491642): [/QUOTE] Nice. :dubious: Is there any chance at all this is true? :rolleyes: I think not. RCP shows Hil only 6% overall. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania\_democratic\_primary-240.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html) That’s OK, but far less than what she wants. Here is an interesting site, one that show what I have ben saying all along- that Obama likes “the system” when it gets him delegates, but decries it as “undemocratic” when it doesn’t. :rolleyes: > **[Off and running? - Salon.com](https://www.salon.com/1999/04/17/hillary/)** > > Hillary Clinton moves to hire a New York campaign staff. "\*Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign has been particularly vociferous in claiming that its candidate stands for a transformative, participatory new politics. It has vaunted Obama’s narrow lead in the overall popular vote in the primaries to date, as well as in the count of elected delegates, as the definitive will of the party’s rank and file. If, while heeding the party’s rules, the Democratic superdelegates overturn those majorities, Obama’s supporters claim, they will have displayed a cynical contempt for democracy that would tear the party apart. These arguments might be compelling if Obama’s leads were not so reliant on certain eccentricities in the current Democratic nominating process, as well as on some blatantly anti-democratic maneuvers by the Obama campaign. Obama’s advantage hinges on a system that, whatever the actual intentions behind it, seems custom-made to hobble Democratic chances in the fall. It depends on ignoring one of the central principles of American electoral politics, one that will be operative on a state-by-state basis this November, which is that the winner takes all. If the Democrats ran their nominating process the way we run our general elections, Sen. Hillary Clinton would have a commanding lead in the delegate count, one that will only grow more commanding after the next round of primaries, and all questions about which of the two Democratic contenders is more electable would be moot. … The exclusion thus far of these two vital states has come about because of an arbitrary and catastrophic decision made last year by Howard Dean and the Democratic National Committee. Two democratic options are available to clean up the mess: Either relent by including the existing Michigan and Florida results or hold new primaries there. Yet in this, as has happened more than once this primary season, the Obama camp’s reaction has not been to clean up the mess the party has created, but to benefit from it. Given the original primary outcomes in Michigan and Florida, Obama has rejected the idea of certifying the results. Although Obama’s supporters conducted a stealth “uncommitted” campaign in Michigan after he voluntarily removed his name from the state ballot, and even though, contrary to DNC directives, his campaign advertised in Florida, Clinton still won both states decisively. … Yet the Obama campaign has stoutly resisted any such revote in either state. In Michigan, Obama’s supporters thwarted efforts to pass the legislation necessary to conduct a new primary. In Florida, campaign lawyers threw monkey wrenches to stop the process cold, claiming that a revote would somehow violate the Voting Rights Act, and charging that a proposed mail-in revote would not be “fraud proof.” (Obama himself, it’s important to note, proposed a bill in 2007 to allow for mail-in voting in federal elections.) … Now consider the delegate count and its connection to the popular vote. In Nevada, Clinton also won a popular majority, despite pressure from union officials on the rank and file attending the caucuses to vote for Obama. Yet Obama claims, on the primary electoral map posted on his official Web site, that he actually won Nevada – presumably because rules that gave greater weight to rural than urban votes mean he won a marginal edge in the Byzantine allotment of the state’s delegates. Why, in deference to the clear-cut Nevada popular majority, doesn’t Obama cede the majority of the state’s delegates to Clinton? Because, according to the rules, he’s entitled to those delegates. But why are the rules suddenly sacrosanct and the popular vote irrelevant? Might it be because the rules, and not the popular vote, now benefit Obama? And what about Texas, another state where Clinton won the popular vote but has not been awarded the majority of pledged delegates? Once again, for Obama, the rules are suddenly all-important – because the rules, and not the popular majority, now favor him." \* This site shows that Hillary would do better in the general elction, and inf fact Hil woudl win over McCain while Obama will lose: [http://www.mydd.com/tag/2008%20Election%3B%20SurveyUSA](http://www.mydd.com/tag/2008%20Election%3B%20SurveyUSA) " \* So I’ve updated Survey USA’s Electoral College prediction based on updated results in 15 states. The results: Hillary Clinton 294 John McCain 231 Tie 13 John McCain 288 Barack Obama 238 Tie 12 - [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726.md?page=35) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726.md?page=37)