# Fork Hillary 3: The Final Forking **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 18, 2008, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726 "2008-03-18T00:01:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 50
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2008, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/981 "2008-04-28T16:30:45Z")
[QUOTE=BJMoose] Yeah, that’s the ticket! Anyone have the email address of an Obama staffer? [/QUOTE] [info@barackobama.com](mailto:info@barackobama.com) 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2008, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/982 "2008-04-28T19:27:59Z")
[United States Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) endorsed Barack Obama for president](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGCpYk) > [@](#): > > . . . > > Senator Bingaman said, “Today, I am announcing my support for Barack Obama for president and declaring my intention to vote for him at the Democratic convention. > > “Our nation faces a daunting number of critical challenges: reasserting America’s leadership in the world, meeting our needs for energy independence, addressing global warming, making healthcare accessible and affordable, positioning our economy to effectively compete globally, and extricating ourselves from the war in Iraq, to name a few. > > “To make progress, we must rise above the partisanship and the issues that divide us to find common ground. We must move the country in a dramatically new direction. > > “I strongly believe Barack Obama is best positioned to lead the nation in that new direction.” > > . . . ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2008, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/983 "2008-04-28T19:32:26Z")
Whats Hillarys SD lead down to now? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2008, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/984 "2008-04-28T19:36:33Z")
[QUOTE=DigitalC] Whats Hillarys SD lead down to now? [/QUOTE] Most sources put it at 21. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2008, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/985 "2008-04-28T19:36:45Z")
[QUOTE=DigitalC] Whats Hillarys SD lead down to now? [/QUOTE] Obama 234 Clinton 256 so 21. Cnn 28/4/08 ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2008, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/986 "2008-04-28T19:51:21Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] Obama 234 Clinton 256 so 21. Cnn 28/4/08 [/QUOTE] That’s actually a difference of 22. 😉[Democratic Convention Watch](http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html) has them at Obama 236 (including Bingaman), Clinton 257, also making the difference 21. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2008, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/987 "2008-04-28T20:13:06Z")
Even a stone can be worn away by the constant drip of water. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2008, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/988 "2008-04-28T20:28:17Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] Even a stone can be worn away by the constant drip of water. [/QUOTE] Very wise Sage Freddy 🙂 22 it is! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2008, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/989 "2008-04-28T20:53:35Z")
[QUOTE=E-Sabbath] Why is it, Deth? It’s half the delegates, 4,047. So… if Florida and Michigan aren’t seated, then don’t the number of delegates go down? [/QUOTE] The 2,024 number already has the MI and FL delegates removed. If those delegates are included, then the winning number is 2,208. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/990 "2008-04-29T01:07:12Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] WRONG. Of _course_ you made a value judgment. In order to claim the ‘virtual tie,’ you had to give at least equal weight to the votes from the MI primary, which (as I’ve said) is ridiculous if you’re trying to use the primary votes to measure actual popular support. OTOH, as I’ve also said, it makes sense if you’re simply trying to come up with a way of ‘scoring’ the primaries that favors your candidate. The former is true. The latter isn’t. I’ve explained why. You do not rebut, you just reassert. But thanks for playing. [/QUOTE] Like I said, I gave no value judgments. The mean figure does not include Mich, and it has Obama running such a _teensy_ bit ahead of Hillary that I called it a "virtual tie:. Read the figures. The popular vote without Mich has “Popular Vote (w/FL) 14,994,905 48.3% 14,788,379 47.6% Obama +206,526 +0.7%” which\* is\* a virtual tie. But anyway- did not Obama choose to remove his name from the Mich. ballot? So thereby the vote figures from there are a direct result of his choice. “Do not the Obama-ites say that Fla & Mich Choose to move their Primaries, thus they must live with that Choice? Thereby, by that logic (and it’s not very good logic, but still, it’s their logic ) then Obama Choose to remove his name from the MI ballot thus he must live with that Choice.” Each of the 6 figures has it’s own validity. I claim none as perfect. And there can be no “one true right” popular vote. \*Of course \*Hil wants to count Mi and _of course_ Obama wants to count the caucus states. ---
**Author:** ![Spiny\_Norman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9de0a6/32.png) [@Spiny\_Norman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spiny_Norman)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/991 "2008-04-29T01:24:06Z")
[QUOTE=DrDeth] Like I said, I gave no value judgments. The mean figure does not include Mich, and it has Obama running such a _teensy_ bit ahead of Hillary that I called it a "virtual tie:. Read the figures. The popular vote without Mich has “Popular Vote (w/FL) 14,994,905 48.3% 14,788,379 47.6% Obama +206,526 +0.7%” which\* is\* a virtual tie. [/quote] No, it _isn’t_ any kind of tie at all. At tie would be 14,788,379 to 14,788,379. There’s nothing tied, “virtual” or otherwise, about a difference of 206,526 votes. It’s a lead, plain and simple. > [@DrDeth](#): > > But anyway- did not Obama choose to remove his name from the Mich. ballot? So thereby the vote figures from there are a direct result of his choice. "Do not the Obama-ites. . . I stopped paying attention to you right here. Knock it off with the rude name-calling already. I’m not an “Obama-ite” an “Obamaniac” or any other bastardization of his name you want to make up to denigrate me for supporting him. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/992 "2008-04-29T01:25:13Z")
Well dammit, that was me, not my husband (rassum frassum login grumble) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/993 "2008-04-29T01:28:07Z")
[QUOTE=DrDeth] Like I said, I gave no value judgments. [/quote] Repeating yourself doesn’t make it any truer. > [@](#): > > The mean figure does not include Mich, Also wrong. You claim to have taken the average of six numbers, two of which include MI. So the mean of those six does not “not include” MI. > [@](#): > > and it has Obama running such a _teensy_ bit ahead of Hillary that I called it a "virtual tie:. Read the figures. The popular vote without Mich has “Popular Vote (w/FL) 14,994,905 48.3% 14,788,379 47.6% Obama +206,526 +0.7%” which\* is\* a virtual tie. I think you _mean_ the median, not the mean. At any rate, that isn’t the median, either. And even if it were, so what? Just because someone put up a bunch of numbers, doesn’t impart magical properties to the mean or the median. And that’s what you’re relying on here - the magic of being able to cite RCP. > [@](#): > > But anyway- did not Obama choose to remove his name from the Mich. ballot? So thereby the vote figures from there are a direct result of his choice. “Do not the Obama-ites say that Fla & Mich Choose to move their Primaries, thus they must live with that Choice? Thereby, by that logic (and it’s not very good logic, but still, it’s their logic ) then Obama Choose to remove his name from the MI ballot thus he must live with that Choice.” Been there, done that. What you’re saying is that you’re not messing around with the popular vote totals in order to discern the truth of who Democratic primary voters prefer; you’re just coming up with a new and different scoring system to reward and punish the candidates as you see fit. That’s nice, but why should anyone else give a flip what _your_ scoring system says? > [@](#): > > Each of the 6 figures has it’s own validity. I claim none as perfect. And there can be no “one true right” popular vote. Very often, even when you can’t pinpoint perfection, you can identify stuff that’s clearly way in the opposite direction. I can’t design for you the perfect airplane, but if I build something in the backyard that has the general shape of an airplane, it’ll be way, way in the other direction from perfect. If your goal is to try to discern the truth about Dem primary voter preferences between the two remaining candidates, the Michigan primary is like that thing in the backyard. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/994 "2008-04-29T01:31:25Z")
It appears that [Roger Waters](http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D90AO9SG0&show_article=1) is also an Obama fan. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/995 "2008-04-29T01:37:48Z")
[QUOTE=DrDeth] \*Of course \*Hil wants to count Mi and _of course_ Obama wants to count the caucus states. [/QUOTE] Your logic is bizarre. Of course Hillary cannot count Michigan because that would be AGAINST THE RULES that she agreed to at the beginning of the contest. Of course Obama can count the caucus states, because the voting there was done ACCORDING TO THE RULES. Do rules mean nothing to you? Are you really that deluded? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/996 "2008-04-29T01:39:22Z")
sorry, forgot I was in GD. Strike that last part, and substitute: These rules are important. They are how the contest is run. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/997 "2008-04-29T01:57:28Z")
Ah, there we go, using the wrong number. Got it. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/998 "2008-04-29T15:54:26Z")
[KY Congressman Chandler To Endorse Obama](http://www.lex18.com/Global/story.asp?S=8242552&nav=EQlp) > [@](#): > > LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) - U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler, who carries a famous Kentucky political name, will endorse Democrat Barack Obama on Tuesday, Obama’s state campaign director said. > > The endorsement would give Obama the support of Kentucky’s two Democratic congressmen - who represent the state’s most urban areas - leading into the state’s May 20 primary. > > . . . > > The Chandler name is one of the most famous in Kentucky politics. Ben Chandler’s grandfather, A.B. “Happy” Chandler, was twice elected governor, served in the U.S. Senate and was commissioner of baseball. > > . . . This is really great news for Obama, especially after NC Goveronor Easley endorsed Clinton today. Easley doesn’t have the clout in NC that Rendell had in PA, and with the dozens of endorsements Obama’s gotten from that state already, hopefully it won’t hurt him that much, if at all. He had over 18,000 people at his rally in Chapel Hill yesterday, and his ground team has been getting people to the polls for early voting all week, hoping to have an insurmountable lead before primary day even hits (which so far seems to be working). Chandler, however, could seriously boost Obama in Kentucky, where Clinton currently is leading him in the polls by a fairly wide margin. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/999 "2008-04-29T17:00:22Z")
And another one jumps on the bandwagon. . . [Iowa superdelegate to endorse Obama](http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080429/NEWS/80429020) > [@](#): > > Winthrop farmer Richard Machacek, an Iowa superdelegate, said today he is pledging to support Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. > > . . . > > Machacek, a Buchanan County Democrat also on the party’s state central committee, said Obama’s performance at Saturday’s Democratic district conventions in Iowa tipped the balance in his favor. > > . . . ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1000 "2008-04-29T17:19:58Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] And another one jumps on the bandwagon. . . [Iowa superdelegate to endorse Obama](http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080429/NEWS/80429020) [/QUOTE] Does this put us 20 off the SD lead now, or did Clinton pick up more as well? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726.md?page=49) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726.md?page=51)