# Fork Hillary 3: The Final Forking **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 18, 2008, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726 "2008-03-18T00:01:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 51
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1001 "2008-04-29T17:45:38Z")
[QUOTE=Onomatopoeia] Does this put us 20 off the SD lead now, or did Clinton pick up more as well? [/QUOTE] It’ll be down to 19 once Chandler makes his endorsement, according to [DemConWatch](http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html). ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1002 "2008-04-29T17:48:24Z")
[QUOTE=Onomatopoeia] Does this put us 20 off the SD lead now, or did Clinton pick up more as well? [/QUOTE] This does, indeed, reduce her lead to 20 (she picked up 1 today, to Obama’s 2). ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1003 "2008-04-29T18:07:02Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] This does, indeed, reduce her lead to 20 (she picked up 1 today, to Obama’s 2). [/QUOTE] Are you including the Pelosi Club (sorry, couldn’t be arsed to read all the pages up to this)? Granted they are uncommitted to any candidate today but they have committed to throwing their support to whoever ends the elections with the most pledged delegates. I hate to count chickens before they are hatched but barring a huge upset Obama should manage that easily enough. If so Obama will gain 5 supers and HRC will lose 1 (pretty sure). If it happens that way her current lead may be considered to be 14. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1004 "2008-04-29T18:15:43Z")
[QUOTE=Whack-a-Mole] If it happens that way her current lead may be considered to be 14. [/QUOTE] Which, given the Clinton rules of rounding, means she’s only up by 10. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1005 "2008-04-29T18:23:14Z")
[QUOTE=Whack-a-Mole] Are you including the Pelosi Club (sorry, couldn’t be arsed to read all the pages up to this)? Granted they are uncommitted to any candidate today but they have committed to throwing their support to whoever ends the elections with the most pledged delegates. I hate to count chickens before they are hatched but barring a huge upset Obama should manage that easily enough. If so Obama will gain 5 supers and HRC will lose 1 (pretty sure). If it happens that way her current lead may be considered to be 14. [/QUOTE] No, I’m only including superdelegates who have publicly stated their endorsements (in spite of knowing that Pelosi intends to endorse Obama when the primaries are over). > [@Richard Parker](#): > > Which, given the Clinton rules of rounding, means she’s only up by 10. \ ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1006 "2008-04-29T19:26:58Z")
Well, well, well. [Birds of a feather]([http://my.barackobama.com/page](http://my.barackobama.com/page) /outreach/view/main/Angie828), and all that. . . > [@](#): > > **Media Sue Easley Over Public Records** > > April 15, 2008 > > RALEIGH — _Carolina Journal_ and nine other North Carolina news organizations filed a civil lawsuit against Gov. Mike Easley on Monday, claiming multiple and “systematic” violations of the N.C. Public Records Law. > > The plaintiffs asked a judge to “enter a judgment declaring that policies and procedures promulgated and implemented on behalf of the defendant [Easley] and the actions taken by him as alleged … violate the Public Records Law,” according to the complaint filed in Wake County Superior Court. > > Joining _CJ_ in the complaint were T_he News & Observer_ of Raleigh, _The Charlotte Observer_, _The Fayetteville Observer_, The Associated Press, and the N.C. Press Association. Other plaintiffs were: Media General Operations, which publishes 10 N.C. newspapers, including the _Winston-Salem Journal_; Freedom Communications and Freedom Eastern North Carolina Communications, which together publish seven N.C. newspapers; _The Wilson Daily Times_; and Boney Publishers, which publishes _The Alamance News_. > > “Our position is that the policies of the governor and of those who act at his direction or under his authority violate the Public Records Law as it relates to retention of documents — in this case, most frequently e-mail documents — but other documents as well,” said Amanda Martin, one of the plaintiffs’ lawyers. > > The suit contends Easley and his staff violated the state’s Public Records Law by: mandating that certain e-mail records be destroyed, destroying at least one written document, devising e-mail retention policies that deviated from the law, and failing to provide for preservation of public records. > > –Lots more at the link– I’m very glad Obama’s not associated with this guy’s endorsement! ---
**Author:** ![ZebraShaSha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/eada6e/32.png) [@ZebraShaSha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZebraShaSha)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1007 "2008-04-29T20:47:00Z")
This morning, on the Fox affiliate in Greensboro, they said basically the following: "There’s a huge momentum shift away from Obama coming off the PA primary. Polls a few weeks ago had him at over 20% for North Carolina, but now the latest poll shows he has dropped _3.2%!"_ Fuck, I guess he really will lose the nomination after all… ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1008 "2008-04-29T20:52:37Z")
[QUOTE=ZebraShaSha] This morning, on the Fox affiliate in Greensboro, they said basically the following: "There’s a huge momentum shift away from Obama coming off the PA primary. Polls a few weeks ago had him at over 20% for North Carolina, but now the latest poll shows he has dropped _3.2%!"_ Fuck, I guess he really will lose the nomination after all.. [/QUOTE] These polls show Obama with closer to a 12-13 point lead. ---
**Author:** ![Beadalin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/3be4f8/32.png) [@Beadalin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beadalin)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1009 "2008-04-29T20:55:17Z")
Which polls, **Gangster**? ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1010 "2008-04-29T21:00:15Z")
Crap, [these polls](http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/29/115511/067/844/505640). ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1011 "2008-04-29T21:15:11Z")
[QUOTE=ZebraShaSha] This morning, on the Fox affiliate in Greensboro, they said basically the following: "There’s a huge momentum shift away from Obama coming off the PA primary. Polls a few weeks ago had him at over 20% for North Carolina, but now the latest poll shows he has dropped _3.2%!"_ Fuck, I guess he really will lose the nomination after all.. [/QUOTE] No, he will not. First of all, he’s not going to lose North Carolina. He’s just not. Any more than Hillary was ever going to lose Pennsylvania. The [RCP Average is still more than 10 points in Barack’s favor](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html). The latest polls have him pulling ahead (though within the margin of error) in Indiana [47/45](http://thepage.time.com/2008/04/29/new-indiana-numbers-2/), which is supposed to be another Hillary stronghold (she’s been up by as much as 16 points there). Even if she wins there, it will be razor thin. She not only needs to win these contests, she needs to win them HUGE. Every contest (_including_ Pennsylvania) that she doesn’t win by enormous margins, puts her that much _farther_ away from the nomination. Barack will win North Carolina. He will win Oregon. He will win Montana. He will win Guam. He may even win Puerto Rico. He will finish the Primary season on June 3rd with more pledged delegates than Hillary Clinton, and the Superdelegates will _never_ overturn that. Every major party leader has said as much. Chill! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1012 "2008-04-29T21:23:21Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] He will finish the Primary season on June 3rd with more pledged delegates than Hillary Clinton, and the Superdelegates will _never_ overturn that. Every major party leader has said as much. [/QUOTE] The Clinton camp is going to try like mad to spin things on June 4th as “Neither candidate reached the required 2024 pledged delegates, therefore the primaries were a total wash and both candidates should count as even in the superdelegates’ considerations”. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1013 "2008-04-29T21:41:59Z")
[QUOTE=jayjay] The Clinton camp is going to try like mad to spin things on June 4th as “Neither candidate reached the required 2024 pledged delegates, therefore the primaries were a total wash and both candidates should count as even in the superdelegates’ considerations”. [/QUOTE] Of course she will. And it will not fly. Do not fret, my friend. She will soon be making her concession speech. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1014 "2008-04-29T22:14:28Z")
[QUOTE=jayjay] The Clinton camp is going to try like mad to spin things on June 4th as “Neither candidate reached the required 2024 pledged delegates, therefore the primaries were a total wash and both candidates should count as even in the superdelegates’ considerations”. [/QUOTE] It’s all good…she’s been trying to spin for months and people are really tired of it. Even if it goes to an American Idol type ending where they are both standing on stage and they announce who the nominee is I still wouldn’t be worried. 😃 Barack had a tough week or two - he’s a big boy he can handle it and he doing a very nice job of it…this too shall pass. ---
**Author:** ![kevja](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/aeb1de/32.png) [@kevja](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kevja)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1015 "2008-04-29T22:27:39Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] Of course she will. And it will not fly. Do not fret, my friend. She will soon be making her concession speech. [/QUOTE] Like her concession speeches after NH, OH, or PA. Obama still has the inside track, but don’t count her out. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1016 "2008-04-29T22:27:49Z")
Also note that while they appear to have ended the day both getting two new supers that is _not_ the same as a wash. She needs to net two supers to each of his one to make it. The more that declare even as even splits the sooner the closer he gets to having enough total delegates. ---
**Author:** ![ZebraShaSha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/eada6e/32.png) [@ZebraShaSha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZebraShaSha)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2008, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1017 "2008-04-29T23:54:24Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] No, he will not. First of all, he’s not going to lose North Carolina. He’s just not. Any more than Hillary was ever going to lose Pennsylvania. The [RCP Average is still more than 10 points in Barack’s favor](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html). The latest polls have him pulling ahead (though within the margin of error) in Indiana [47/45](http://thepage.time.com/2008/04/29/new-indiana-numbers-2/), which is supposed to be another Hillary stronghold (she’s been up by as much as 16 points there). Even if she wins there, it will be razor thin. She not only needs to win these contests, she needs to win them HUGE. Every contest (_including_ Pennsylvania) that she doesn’t win by enormous margins, puts her that much _farther_ away from the nomination. Barack will win North Carolina. He will win Oregon. He will win Montana. He will win Guam. He may even win Puerto Rico. He will finish the Primary season on June 3rd with more pledged delegates than Hillary Clinton, and the Superdelegates will _never_ overturn that. Every major party leader has said as much. Chill! 🙂 [/QUOTE] Ah, no, I was pointing out how silly the news was. They were making a 3 percentage point shift in one poll as evidence that there was a massive momentum against him. You know, the media building a narrative and all that. It’s sort of like the same program that shouted “COULD THERE REALLY BE A MAN ON MARS? or is it just a pile of rocks..? And how much will a TRIP TO SPACE cost you? After this message!” Then they came back with “SEE this thing circled in RED?! SOME SAY it’s a gnome, others say it’s BIG FOOT! But scientists seems to think it’s only rocks…” ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2008, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1018 "2008-04-30T00:02:04Z")
[QUOTE=ZebraShaSha] Ah, no, I was pointing out how silly the news was. They were making a 3 percentage point shift in one poll as evidence that there was a massive momentum against him. You know, the media building a narrative and all that. It’s sort of like the same program that shouted “COULD THERE REALLY BE A MAN ON MARS? or is it just a pile of rocks..? And how much will a TRIP TO SPACE cost you? After this message!” Then they came back with “SEE this thing circled in RED?! SOME SAY it’s a gnome, others say it’s BIG FOOT! But scientists seems to think it’s only rocks…” [/QUOTE] OMG, you totally whooshed me! And I love this description of the MSM. It’s SO right on the money. I am actually laughing out loud here! Thanks for that! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2008, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1019 "2008-04-30T01:00:14Z")
So, there’s NOT a man on mars? :o ---
**Author:** ![9thFloor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/9/b487fb/32.png) [@9thFloor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/9thFloor)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2008, 8:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1020 "2008-04-30T08:01:53Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] It’s all good…she’s been trying to spin for months and people are really tired of it. Even if it goes to an American Idol type ending where they are both standing on stage and they announce who the nominee is I still wouldn’t be worried. 😃 Barack had a tough week or two - he’s a big boy he can handle it and he doing a very nice job of it…this too shall pass. [/QUOTE] This too shall not pass. It’s been said again and again that Wright will go away. The issue will not go away for Obama. Ever. The ads with Wright have already started in the Carolinas. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726.md?page=50) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726.md?page=52)