# Fork Hillary 3: The Final Forking **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 18, 2008, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726 "2008-03-18T00:01:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 53
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1041 "2008-05-01T14:37:37Z")
In addition to the switch by Andrew, [Obama picked up 3 _more_ superdelegates today](http://thepage.time.com/2008/05/01/thursdays-super-battle/), making it Obama 4, Hillary 0 (net\*). > [@](#): > > Obama to pick up three prominent Illinois supers — Mayor Daley, House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie and Cook County Board President Todd Stroger — as the state finishes filling out its delegate slate. \*She picked up Connecticut AFL-CIO President John Olsen. ---
**Author:** ![Maeglin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8baadc/32.png) [@Maeglin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maeglin)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1042 "2008-05-01T14:55:33Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] I’m banking on your last statement being true. I find it hard to believe the dem frontrunner will wither away into oblivian and the Clinton machine will take over. There are a lot of upper tier dems who really do not want to see that happen. [/QUOTE] People have said almost exactly the same thing about Clinton. It is hard to believe that the clear democratic front-runner has faded away, but it has happened. This remark says rather more about your personal biases than the facts. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1043 "2008-05-01T15:11:03Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] In addition to the switch by Andrew, [Obama picked up 3 _more_ superdelegates today](http://thepage.time.com/2008/05/01/thursdays-super-battle/), making it Obama 4, Hillary 0 (net\*). \*She picked up Connecticut AFL-CIO President John Olsen. [/QUOTE] What’s the new magic number? ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1044 "2008-05-01T15:15:19Z")
[QUOTE=Maeglin] People have said almost exactly the same thing about Clinton. It is hard to believe that the clear democratic front-runner has faded away, but it has happened. This remark says rather more about your personal biases than the facts. [/QUOTE] The difference is that the remarks about Clinton were made before Super Tuesday, as opposed to after 90% of the delegates have declared their intent. There’s no personal biases about it, that’s what’s happened. It’s too late now for Hillary to come back now, barring some major miracle on her part. The numbers (facts) speak for themselves. [QUOTE=Onomatopoeia] What’s the new magic number? [/QUOTE] What do you mean? ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1045 "2008-05-01T15:27:10Z")
Magic Number = number of total delegates (both pledged and super) still needed to clinch the nomination. I don’t know how up-to-date this is but [RealClearPolitics](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html) gives Obama 1733 total delegates at the moment, leaving him with a “Magic Number” of 291 more delegates needed. Hillary is currently credited with 1597 leaving her with 427 still needed. ---
**Author:** ![stolichnaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bcef8e/32.png) [@stolichnaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stolichnaya)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1046 "2008-05-01T15:27:21Z")
I suppose the “magic number” would be the number of super or pledged delegates that each candidate needs to obtain to get to the much-discussed 2024 (excluding FL and MI). Near as I can tell Obama’s current magic number is 2024 - 1490 (pledged) - 243 (super) = 291 And Clinton’s is: 2024 - 1336 (pledged) - 260 (super) = 428 Since they are both chasing the same number, there is no additional component- for example if when Clinton loses one superdelegate there is no effect on Obama’s number unless the person specifically declares for him. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1047 "2008-05-01T16:03:07Z")
I think though that **Shayna** cited new three aren’t part of those figures yet as they are not official yet - they are appointments to the Illinois slate to be made next week that are all Obama people, but until it goes through next week they are not yet supers - just [supers to be.](http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2008/05/obama_picks_up_3_more_illinois.html) > [@](#): > > When the Democratic Party of Illinois meet next week to finish filling out the delegate slate, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) will pick up three more superdelegates, according to Steve Brown, a spokesman for state party chair Michael Madigan, who is also the speaker of the Illinois House. > > That’s because the three appointments are all pledged to Obama So if you count them, then his new magic number is 288, or 287 if Andrew isn’t already in DemConWatch’s figures (and I don’t think that he is). Hillary’s magic number doesn’t change as she gained and lost one today. At least so far. It’s still morning! ---
**Author:** ![Maeglin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8baadc/32.png) [@Maeglin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maeglin)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1048 "2008-05-01T16:25:22Z")
[QUOTE=Santo Rugger] The difference is that the remarks about Clinton were made before Super Tuesday, as opposed to after 90% of the delegates have declared their intent. There’s no personal biases about it, that’s what’s happened. It’s too late now for Hillary to come back now, barring some major miracle on her part. The numbers (facts) speak for themselves. [/QUOTE] Numbers rarely speak for themselves. The fact that Clinton was overtaken as front-runner is a Rare Event, one that we cannot attach a probability to based on past events. We have no way of assessing how likely an HRC miracle is that would change the superdelegates’ minds before they cast their final votes at the convention. Let’s not pretend we do. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1049 "2008-05-01T16:29:18Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] At least so far. It’s still morning! [/QUOTE] Indeed. And Obama has picked up yet [another superdelegate endorsement](http://thepage.time.com/obama-release-on-texas-superdelegate-endorsement/), 31 year member of the United Steelworkers, DNC Member John Patrick of Texas. > [@](#): > > Today, a Texas superdelegate backed Barack Obama, citing his record of standing up for working families and opposing trade deals that fail to protect American workers. The endorsement by Texas DNC Member John Patrick, who is also a 31 year member of the United Steelworkers (USW) as well as a Vice President of the Texas AFL/CIO, brings the total number of superdelegates to endorse Barack Obama to 249. Senator Obama is 283 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination. > > John Patrick said, “Senator Barack Obama has spent a lifetime standing up for American workers, and he will be a crucial voice for us in the White House. Senator Obama chose a career as an organizer on the streets of Chicago, fighting for working families who lost their jobs, specifically those families in neighborhoods devastated by steel plant closings. He has consistently opposed unfair trade deals that fail to offer protection to American workers - like NAFTA. Senator Obama has a real plan to put money back in the pockets of working families by restoring the manufacturing base in America.” Don’t forget, from my post above, the Obama campaign claims to have had the endorsements of 247 supers as of yesterday, which is 5 more than is being reported elsewhere. When you add these 5 from today, that would bring his total to 252 to Hillary’s 260, which brings the difference down to only 8! ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1050 "2008-05-01T16:48:53Z")
[QUOTE=Maeglin] Numbers rarely speak for themselves. \ [/QUOTE] You’re right. Sometimes they’re contorted to say things that would be considered ridiculous by a reasonable person. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1051 "2008-05-01T16:51:39Z")
[QUOTE=stolichnaya] I suppose the “magic number” would be the number of super or pledged delegates that each candidate needs to obtain to get to the much-discussed 2024 (excluding FL and MI). Near as I can tell Obama’s current magic number is 2024 - 1490 (pledged) - 243 (super) = 291 And Clinton’s is: 2024 - 1336 (pledged) - 260 (super) = 428 Since they are both chasing the same number, there is no additional component- for example if when Clinton loses one superdelegate there is no effect on Obama’s number unless the person specifically declares for him. [/QUOTE] Thanks, **Stoli**. That’s what I was looking for. I’m guessing John Patrick is is not in your SD number for Obama, so that’d make his new number 290 as of today, if you discount the to-be-announceds from Shayna’s post, and the as yet unresolved disparity of the 5 more SDs Obama’s team has referenced, which Shayna also mentioned. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1052 "2008-05-01T17:31:14Z")
So _Time_ is calculating the magic number as 283. How they get that I don’t rightly know, but let’s go with it. Let’s assume May 6 brings Obama a modest NC win (picks up 60 delegates and she picks up 55) and a tie in IN. Guam splits. Obama’ magic number is then (assuming no more supers announce) 185 and Clinton’s is 335 with 217 elected delegates to go and another, what 28something? supers to announce … and 19 delegates nominally pledged to Edwards but who can do what they please. ---
**Author:** ![Maeglin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8baadc/32.png) [@Maeglin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maeglin)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1053 "2008-05-01T17:39:13Z")
[QUOTE=Santo Rugger] You’re right. Sometimes they’re contorted to say things that would be considered ridiculous by a reasonable person. [/QUOTE] Very funny. Amazingly enough, reasonable people are very often wrong. I am not trying to contort any numbers here. You don’t bank the money until you have the money, is all. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1054 "2008-05-01T18:34:58Z")
[QUOTE=Maeglin] Very funny. Amazingly enough, reasonable people are very often wrong. I am not trying to contort any numbers here. You don’t bank the money until you have the money, is all. [/QUOTE] I wasn’t talking about you specifically. Sorry if it came off that way. Reasonable people are often wrong, you’re correct. But that doesn’t mean that unreasonable people are correct more often. While we can’t cash our checks just yet, it still boils down to the “delicious chips” argument. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1055 "2008-05-01T20:19:23Z")
Being of the view that the entire universe is about me, personally, I must conclude that you’re getting some amusement out of perplexing me. The _“delicious chips” argument_? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1056 "2008-05-01T20:29:12Z")
[QUOTE=kaylasdad99] Being of the view that the entire universe is about me, personally, I must conclude that you’re getting some amusement out of perplexing me. The _“delicious chips” argument_? 😕 [/QUOTE] The first of the [“Logic of Hillary”](http://youtube.com/watch?v=dinkjdPGagg) clips. It’s much better to watch, but here’s a summary: Man has two dozen cookies in front of him, woman has half a dozen. She says, “You have a lot more cookies than I do, but what you don’t realize, is that the chips in my cookies, are _far_ more delicious than the chips in yours.” ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1057 "2008-05-01T20:33:40Z")
Thank you. I can’t watch youtube from this computer, but you may be sure that I’ll be screening this one later. And your summary is hilarious. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1058 "2008-05-01T20:44:00Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] At last, some good news for Obama. > [@](#): > > A leader of the Democratic Party under Bill Clinton has switched his allegiance to Barack Obama and is encouraging fellow Democrats to “heal the rift in our party” and unite behind the Illinois senator. > > Joe Andrew, who was Democratic National Committee chairman from 1999-2001, planned a news conference Thursday in his hometown of Indianapolis to urge other Hoosiers to support Obama in Tuesday’s primary, perhaps the most important contest left in the White House race. He also has written a lengthy letter explaining his decision that he plans to send to other superdelegates. > > “I am convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point that it’s now bad for the Democratic Party,” Andrew said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press. [/QUOTE] [Here](http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/05/the-andrew-lett.html#more)’s the full text of his letter to the Democratic superdelegates. Not everyone may be convinced, but it’s blistering in its honesty and forthrightness. Here’s hoping it falls onto enough receptive ears. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1059 "2008-05-01T20:46:08Z")
[QUOTE=kaylasdad99] Thank you. I can’t watch youtube from this computer, but you may be sure that I’ll be screening this one later. And your summary is hilarious. [/QUOTE] The whole series is hilarious, mostly because it’s spot on. Be sure to check the other 5 our when you get around to it! My favorite is the “magician” argument. Classic. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2008, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1060 "2008-05-01T21:15:00Z")
[QUOTE=ArchiveGuy] [Here](http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/05/the-andrew-lett.html#more)’s the full text of his letter to the Democratic superdelegates. Not everyone may be convinced, but it’s blistering in its honesty and forthrightness. Here’s hoping it falls onto enough receptive ears. [/QUOTE] I think he’s in for a happy surprise in IN. I think polls are polls and if Obama was steadily up for many weeks, he will ultimately do well when people enter the stalls. IMHO [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726.md?page=52) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726.md?page=54)