# Fork Hillary 3: The Final Forking **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 18, 2008, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726 "2008-03-18T00:01:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 57
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2008, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1121 "2008-05-03T19:22:16Z")
[QUOTE=kaylasdad99] This _is_ still the “Fork Hillary” thread, is it not? 😕 [/QUOTE] I know! If somebody could answer my delegate question, that’ll at least help me judge Hillary’s doneness. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2008, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1122 "2008-05-03T19:57:23Z")
[QUOTE=Biggirl] I know! If somebody could answer my delegate question, that’ll at least help me judge Hillary’s doneness. [/QUOTE] If what you are asking is re Guam, then I’m not sure any one knows. They elect 8 pledged representatives who each get one half vote so are the equivalent of 4 pledged delegates. But do they get allocated as if they are 4 or as if they are 8? If as if they are 4, then there will be a 2/2 split barring a much bigger win than what it looks like. If as if they are 8 then it could be a 2.5/1.5 split if he gets over 56.25%. (Per an explanation on DemConWatch) You know every iota counts but I’d rather not have to keep track of halvsies just the same! Meanwhile the party Chair and Vice chair positions are going to an uncommitted and an Obama supporter but the uncommitted is on top and they together cast one vote (I think) so I don’t know if you can count them as a super for Obama or not. That uncommitted chair also appoints another super. Another uncommitted, the past chair, was planning on appointing an Obama supporter there but a different uncommitted won so now who knows? I’m so confused! ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2008, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1123 "2008-05-03T20:05:05Z")
Phew! Thanks **DS** – I think. Nothing can be simple with the Dems this year, can it? ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2008, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1124 "2008-05-03T20:08:31Z")
[QUOTE=Biggirl] Phew! Thanks **DS** – I think. Nothing can be simple with the Dems this year, can it? [/QUOTE] Just this year? ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2008, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1125 "2008-05-03T20:49:50Z")
[Today’s Superdelegate Tally: Obama 3, Clinton 1](http://thepage.time.com/2008/05/03/saturdays-super-battle/) > [@](#): > > Obama nabs former South Carolina Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum and former Maryland Governor Parris Glendening after those states elect them as their add ons. > > . . . > > Clinton gets Maryland’s former Lt. Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend from the add-on election. > [@](#): > > [Superdelegate Brian Colón backs Obama’s movement for change](http://thepage.time.com/obama-camp-release-on-new-mexico-superdelegate-endorsement/) > > Today, New Mexico State Party Chair and superdelegate Brian S. Colón endorsed Senator Barack Obama, citing Obama’s ability to bring new voters into the process as well as the positive campaign Obama has run. > > The endorsement brings the total number of superdelegates to endorse Barack Obama to 255. Senator Obama is 277 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination. > > State Party Chair Brian Colón said, “Barack Obama has proven to inspire a movement that has brought a record number of people into the process. He’s proven to be a candidate who can compete and will fight hard to expand the Democratic Party’s reach and put Western states in play in the general election. His message of change is resonating across all ages, races and economic backgrounds in New Mexico. > > . . . Drip, drip, drip. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2008, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1126 "2008-05-03T21:04:14Z")
I’m glad to see the SD endorcements finally speeding up, even of some are going Hillarys way. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2008, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1127 "2008-05-03T22:05:45Z")
Remember, as Guam goes, so go the Virgin Islands. And maybe the Azores. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2008, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1128 "2008-05-03T22:21:13Z")
[QUOTE=Jackmannii] Remember, as Guam goes, so go the Virgin Islands. And maybe the Azores. [/QUOTE] The chickens haven’t hached yet. They’re still counting votes in Dededo, which has a military base. Hillary could still pull it out. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2008, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1129 "2008-05-03T22:27:19Z")
[QUOTE=Onomatopoeia] The chickens haven’t hached yet. They’re still counting votes in Dededo, which has a military base. Hillary could still pull it out. [/QUOTE] Do military members disproportionately prefer her? I would have thought that since they are disproportionately young, they would go Obama. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2008, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1130 "2008-05-03T22:30:29Z")
Various sites have played a fun game. What percent of the remaining delegates will each need to win after Tuesday? Well obviously we need to guess how Tuesday will go. DemConWatch has made some reasonable enough guesses: they use an Obama win in NC by 9% which gives him 40 delegates and Clinton 32 and a 10% win for Clinton in IN which gives him 32 to her 40; net for the day would be Obama 95 and Clinton 92. Playing that hypothetical out we would, with no additional super movement, have Obama with 1834 total and Clinton with 1699. Add/subtract the effect of the Pelosi club and Obama has 1841 committed to going his way and she has 1698 with 507 outstanding. Of those he’d need to get 36% to fall his way to get to 2024 and she’d need 60%. Not counting the Edwards people. Even allowing 60/40 wins in West Virginia and Kentucky and a more modest 10% win in Oregon (as speculated in a post on Kos) Obama picks up another 61 delegates and only needs to win (assuming _no_ additional supers in the interim either way) bringing his total to 1902 and 406 outstanding. He’d need a mere 25% of the remainders to drop his way. Clinton would have picked up 70 but would need an even greater percentage of the remainders to drop her way than before. The way the Daily Kos calculates it, with Clinton winning IN by only 4% and Obama winning NC by 8%, and worrying only about the percent of supers needed, then Clinton would need 94% of the supers who remain at this time to fall her way and Obama would need only 45% of them to cinch it without any more primaries. The only problem with this analysis is that supers are not fixed in stone. If Clinton does tie NC and wins IN by double digits then her narrative may start having resonance for more supers after all. The drip reverses and builds the other way. Some may start to flip her way even. But barring that, keeping IN a 10 or under loss and NC an over 5 win, the drip will continue Obamaward as the clock runs out. And while I am nervous about Tuesday, I think it will go better than that. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2008, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1131 "2008-05-03T22:39:38Z")
[QUOTE=Richard Parker] Do military members disproportionately prefer her? [/QUOTE] I thought it was the other way around actually. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2008, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1132 "2008-05-04T00:02:33Z")
Obama won Guam by seven votes. Seven! Sigh. Both camps are calling shenanigans :rolleyes: . A win is a win, but seven votes? Sheesh. What that means is Hillary beat him in Dededo, so yeah, the military went for Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2008, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1133 "2008-05-04T01:39:24Z")
Every vote really does count in these primaries. ---
**Author:** ![Gozu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gozu/32/6615_2.png) [@Gozu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gozu)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2008, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1134 "2008-05-04T01:45:31Z")
[QUOTE=Santo Rugger] The whole series is hilarious. [/QUOTE] It didn’t make me laugh. I demand compensation. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2008, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1135 "2008-05-04T01:57:41Z")
[QUOTE=Gozu] It didn’t make me laugh. I demand compensation. [/QUOTE] I especially enjoyed: "Doesn’t that seem a little unfair? “Doesn’t mean I didn’t win.” “Good point.” ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2008, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1136 "2008-05-04T19:31:24Z")
[Jaime Paulino, a superdelegate and Vice Chair of the Guam Democratic Party, endorsed Barack Obama today](http://thepage.time.com/obama-release-on-guam-superdelegate/) > [@](#): > > “Having grown up in Hawaii, Barack Obama understands the culture and challenges of growing up in the Pacific Islands. I feel Barack will make sure our voices and concerns are finally taken seriously in Washington. We’ve been looking for a leader with the character to be honest with us about the issues we face and the courage to make real change, and that’s why I am proudly supporting Barack Obama for President.” Drip. ---
**Author:** ![Digital\_Stimulus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@Digital\_Stimulus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Digital_Stimulus)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2008, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1137 "2008-05-04T21:51:11Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] [Jaime Paulino, a superdelegate and Vice Chair of the Guam Democratic Party, endorsed Barack Obama today](http://thepage.time.com/obama-release-on-guam-superdelegate/) Drip. [/QUOTE] [joking] Now why would you call Mr. Paulino a drip? You must be a closet Clinton supporter! [/joking] ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2008, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1138 "2008-05-05T00:52:52Z")
[QUOTE=Liberal] Obama will denounce it. Hillary will demand that he both reject and denounce it. [/QUOTE] Obama \*will \*denounce it, while secretly smiling at his supporters who post it on MB, and such. :rolleyes: **RTFirefly** \*"Well, at least we’ve dispensed with that nonsense. " \* Nope, you saying it doesn’t make it true. Shutting your eyes, plugging your ears and shouting as loud as you can “\*it’s not true and I don’t wanna beleive it” \*doesn’t change what the facts are. The facts are the facts, although you can “substitute your own reality” when talking to “the choir”. The Popular vote still remains "Popular Vote Total 14,421,557 49.2% 13,920,143 47.5% Obama +501,414 +1.7% Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA\* 14,755,641 49.3% 14,144,005 47.2% Obama +611,636 +2.1% Popular Vote (w/FL) 14,997,771 48.3% 14,791,129 47.6% Obama +206,642 +0.7% Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA\* 15,331,855 48.4% 15,014,991 47.4% Obama +316,864 +1.0% Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)\*\* 14,997,771 47.4% 15,119,438 47.8% Clinton +121,667 +0.4% Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA\* 15,331,855 47.5% 15,343,300 47.5% Clinton +11,445 +0.03%" Per RCP. It will change next Primary, of course. You may pick which one makes you feel better, but the truth is- none are “the one true number”, none are fully valid and all have some validity. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2008, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1139 "2008-05-05T00:58:46Z")
[QUOTE=DrDeth] You may pick which one makes you feel better, but the truth is- none are “the one true number”, none are fully valid and all have some validity. [/QUOTE] The truth is, there are explicit DNC rules governing which votes are valid. Plugging your ears and la-la-la-ing until the sun comes up will not change that. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2008, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1140 "2008-05-05T13:01:49Z")
[QUOTE=DrDeth] **RTFirefly** \*"Well, at least we’ve dispensed with that nonsense. " \* Nope, you saying it doesn’t make it true. Shutting your eyes, plugging your ears and shouting as loud as you can “\*it’s not true and I don’t wanna beleive it” \*doesn’t change what the facts are. [/quote] That was per what **you** said at post 1027. If you don’t believe your own words - or even take them seriously, apparently - why should anyone else? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726.md?page=56) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726.md?page=58)