# Fork Hillary 3: The Final Forking **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 18, 2008, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726 "2008-03-18T00:01:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 64
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1261 "2008-05-07T16:52:04Z")
[QUOTE=hajario] McGovern isn’t a delegate. [/QUOTE] Or even a superdelegate… ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1262 "2008-05-07T16:54:57Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] Richardson. Edwards. Or, what the heck, Bill. [/QUOTE] The Cat? Cosby? Gates? Shatner? Couldn’t be Clinton; he’s not eligible. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1263 "2008-05-07T16:55:20Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] Hillary is speaking live in West Virginia right now. She just said that Indiana was a come-from-behind victory, having been down by 7 or 8 to pull out a win. I guess I should have knwon she’d find yet another thing to [lie about](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_democratic_primary-639.html). [/QUOTE] This is what I was going on about in another thread… What the heck is this “Tonight, we’ve come from behind. We’ve broken the tie” nonsense? It’s beyond spin, it’s utter lgarbage! Come from behind? Behind what? She had a huge lead in Indiana, weeks ago, and saw it whittled down to 1.4% on the actual vote. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1264 "2008-05-07T16:59:52Z")
A better offer would be for her to remain Senator from New York but with a tacit promise to increase her visibility via committe chairing, allowing her to sponsor high-profile legislation, in short, promising to keep her in the political spotlight. After all, somebody’s going to have to run in 2012, why not make an implicit promise to groom her for that, to feature her as the loyal Senate supporter who rallied behind the Party, etc. Age isn’t an issue, after all. Hillary ain’t gonna die before she takes The Oath. She would simply refuse. She is pretty much inevitable. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1265 "2008-05-07T17:00:53Z")
[QUOTE=Euphonious Polemic] This is what I was going on about in another thread… What the heck is this “Tonight, we’ve come from behind. We’ve broken the tie” nonsense? It’s beyond spin, it’s utter lgarbage! Come from behind? Behind what? She had a huge lead in Indiana, weeks ago, and saw it whittled down to 1.4% on the actual vote. [/QUOTE] I was a little bit confused because even the BBC, who I enjoy listening to for an outsider’s perspective and an even-handed commentary, said that Indiana was an Obama state and that Clinton made it close. Now, those polls only go back to April on that website. Was Obama _ever_ expected to win Indiana? ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1266 "2008-05-07T17:02:49Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] She is pretty much inevitable. [/QUOTE] Thanks for spoiling my appetite. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1267 "2008-05-07T17:03:26Z")
[QUOTE=pulykamell] I was a little bit confused because even the BBC, who I enjoy listening to for an outsider’s perspective and an even-handed commentary, said that Indiana was an Obama state and that Clinton made it close. Now, those polls only go back to April on that website. Was Obama _ever_ expected to win Indiana? [/QUOTE] From [Talking Points Memo](http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/hillarys-come-fro-behind-spin.php) , concerning the polls in Indiana: “Of the 25 polls taken, 15 had Clinton in the lead. Her average lead was 7.9. On May 5, five polls gave Clinton an average lead of 7 (ranging from 4 to 12).” ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1268 "2008-05-07T17:08:22Z")
[QUOTE=pulykamell] Was Obama _ever_ expected to win Indiana? [/QUOTE] I remember [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) had a single February poll for Indiana for the longest time showing Obama with a large lead but, once polling really started in April, it was in the “favors Clinton” to “Tie” range. ---
**Author:** ![stolichnaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bcef8e/32.png) [@stolichnaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stolichnaya)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1269 "2008-05-07T17:09:04Z")
You have to hand it to them, they work over the media like junkyard dogs. Obama’s hands-off approach has really cost him in the narrative. It would be interesting to see whether any of these folks come over to the Obama campaign, at least behind the scenes, because at the moment McCain has a palpable advantage in press affection. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1270 "2008-05-07T17:12:26Z")
Wasn’t that long ago that he wasn’t expected to win much of anything, it was Hillary the Inevitable. She was the darling of those Dem leaders who are at great pains to paint themselves as centrists, and they were raking it in from business interests who had been born again citizens, pouring out their cash for the good of the nation. Either that, or they were hedging their bets with the Republican Lite candidate. Plus, they had been handed spreadsheets that show that universal health care could take the health insurance burden off their books and put it on the Gov’s and realized, as the scales fell from their eyes, that hey! this wasn’t socialized medicine after all! We fuzzy thinking leftys had our heads patted by patronizing _punditti_ so much, it was a wonder we weren’t pounded into the ground like a stake. “Well, yes, dear, you go run and play with your cute little candidate, and leave us grown ups to talk about how inevitable Hillary is…” Democracy! Deranged, chaotic and utterly unpredictable! Whats not to love? ---
**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1271 "2008-05-07T17:19:46Z")
Well, the Times ran a relevant article to this today: [Pundits Declare the Race Over](http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/08/us/politics/07cnd-pundits.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin). ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1272 "2008-05-07T17:25:25Z")
She thinks her “base” is a _stronger_ base to start from to win the general election. IOW, her old, uneducated supporters trump the dumbasses who’re still in college and the elite latte sippers. :rolleyes: She’s reiterating that the delegate number needed to win is 2209 and that she’s staying in the race until we have a nominee. And she’s still playing the “if” game; “IF” we had the same nominating process the Republicans have, she’d already be the nominee (which is another lie). ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1273 "2008-05-07T17:39:38Z")
[QUOTE=stolichnaya] Obama’s hands-off approach has really cost him in the narrative. [/QUOTE] If she were actually the Republican candidate, there would have been no kid gloves. The problem is that she has supporters who the party is going to NEED in November, and Obama knows it. He can’t metaphorically punch her in the nose. He has to keep a relatively polite demeanor toward her, while still remonstrating with her for her campaign’s lies and dirty tricks. That’s difficult. ---
**Author:** ![Merkwurdigliebe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/74df32/32.png) [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1274 "2008-05-07T17:45:52Z")
This may be true, but I feel that last night was a turning point. Hillary might not want to give up, but the look on Bill and Chelsea’s faces pretty much said it all last night. The weird thing is that she probably will win the next few primaries. But what about the money. What is really damning is that she is again apparently running out of cash. That’s really a double-dose of bad news equally as bad as her performance last night. On a conference call this morning she said that she will stay in. But that really means nothing right? Everyone says that. Some other tidbits I’ve picked up during the day. Apparently Drudge says that no super-delegates want to meet with her today. Obama has been meeting with them all day. Honestly it’s time for the super-delegates to make a fucking choice. The ones who haven’t decided by now are cowards. It took true cojones for people like Kennedy and Richardson to stand up for Obama when it was difficult, and now we have the opposite of cojones with the rest of them. At some point you have to put the greater good of the party ahead of your personal political career. It is now approaching the point where Obama can accept Florida and Michigan as-is. As soon as he gets the super-delegates to do it he will. Remember that Florida only nets her 34. It depends on how much this will affect her standing in West Virginia and Kentucky. She has, thusfar managed to keep the press treating her as a real candidate. This is very important, because once people realize your chances are slim they won’t vote for you. This could affect her ability to take KY and WV despite her innate advantage in Appalachia. People are again talking about how Obama has hoardes of super-delegates ready and waiting to endores again. I’m beginning to be skeptical. I think he probably has a lot of quiet support, but again the super-delegates want to wait until she’s flat-lining for fear that she’ll still have some kind of power. I have to admit, I’d hate to be on the wrong side of a President Hillary, but that is so not happening now. If there ever was a chance to end this before May 31, it was now. That can only happen by a dramatic loss of support by Hillary. The next few days will tell. And if she somehow underperforms in WV and KY (forgot which one is next) then it’s certainly over. Or if Obama’s magical 50 superdelegates endorse today or something. The only thing that pisses me off about Obama magnanimously accepting Michigan and Florida’s delegates in the name of party unity is that it was fucking clear from the beginning that they would not count. It’s not 'Nam there are rules. I don’t like it one bit that Obama is going to encourage that in the future. What the hell is this talk about Hillary being governor? Why can’t she do it in one of her other “home” states. Illinios? Indiana? Arkansas? Pennsylvania? Where is she from again? ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1275 "2008-05-07T17:46:23Z")
[QUOTE=pulykamell] I was a little bit confused because even the BBC, who I enjoy listening to for an outsider’s perspective and an even-handed commentary, said that Indiana was an Obama state and that Clinton made it close. [/QUOTE] Was that before or after the story about the chocolate ration being increased from 25 grams to twenty? ---
**Author:** ![stolichnaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bcef8e/32.png) [@stolichnaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stolichnaya)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1276 "2008-05-07T17:47:59Z")
I get that, but I meant their hands-off approach toward the press. I think Obama will need to become a bit more accessible and savvy with the media to win the perception battle with McCain, who seems to get a free ride. I assume that will change in the general, but why not be proactive? ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1277 "2008-05-07T17:50:59Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] Wasn’t that long ago that he wasn’t expected to win much of anything, it was Hillary the Inevitable. [/QUOTE] It’s funny, I remember in 2006 & early '07 when the opinion was that Obama should run for the nomination “for practice”. No one thought he stood a chance against Clinton but that the experience would do him good for a future “real” run for the office. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1278 "2008-05-07T18:51:17Z")
[Obama Announces 3 Superdelegates](http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/obama-announces-3-superdelegates/) > [@](#): > > . . . > > Today, in the wake of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, the Obama campaign is announcing three new superdelegates: Jerry Meek, chairman of the North Carolina Democratic Party, Jeanette Council, a member of the D.N.C. from North Carolina and Inola Henry, a member of the D.N.C. from California. > > . . . > > “Over the past year, I’ve watched as Barack Obama has drawn countless new people to the political process,” Mr. Meek said. “Although my position as state chair has led me to remain neutral through the primary, I’ve quietly celebrated as Barack Obama offered new hope to millions of Americans who have lost faith in the American dream after years of disastrous Republican policies.” > > In a statement, Ms. Council said: “I am first and foremost a Democrat and the Democratic Party is truly the party of the people, the party of inclusion that wants to engage all people in the political process. This is what Barack Obama has done. Seeing this happen, especially here in North Carolina, has changed me forever and given me hope that we can change this country.” > > . . . Earlier, Clinton got a NC Superdelegate, as well. Today’s tally so far; Obama 3, Clinton 1. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1279 "2008-05-07T18:52:01Z")
[QUOTE=jayjay] If she were actually the Republican candidate, there would have been no kid gloves. The problem is that she has supporters who the party is going to NEED in November, and Obama knows it. He can’t metaphorically punch her in the nose. He has to keep a relatively polite demeanor toward her, while still remonstrating with her for her campaign’s lies and dirty tricks. That’s difficult. [/QUOTE] Exactly. For two reasons, both of which she knows. (1) He can’t come across as the “angry black male”; and (2) unlike her, he isn’t willing to trash the whole party just to win the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1280 "2008-05-07T18:55:29Z")
Why would a NC superdelegate go for Clinton at this stage? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726.md?page=63) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726.md?page=65)