# Fork Hillary 3: The Final Forking **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 18, 2008, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726 "2008-03-18T00:01:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 87
**Author:** ![Lord\_Ashtar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ea924/32.png) [@Lord\_Ashtar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Ashtar)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1721 "2008-05-16T02:34:26Z")
[QUOTE=NurseCarmen] When do we start the “fork Macain” thread? [/QUOTE] Have at it. I’d be interested to hear your premise. ---
**Author:** ![Wildfire\_MM](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f08c70/32.png) [@Wildfire\_MM](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wildfire_MM)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1722 "2008-05-16T02:43:12Z")
according to wikipedia there are 793 superdelegats. That mean that over 200 of them have not decided who to suport yet. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1723 "2008-05-16T03:29:31Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] I just want to re-emphasize, he will be going for an electoral blow-out but it won’t be easy. The “50-state” strategy is a risky approach and could backfire relatively easily over the “50-plus one” approach. I think that he can do it but it is also possible that he’ll flub it. This will not be an election for the faint of heart or those without some intestinal fortitude as well. [/QUOTE] Nitpick: it’s not so much that he’s going for an electoral blowout as that he’s competing in every state. Even in the states he won’t win, campaigning there means that McCain will have to spend money to defend himself. Besides, he’s also building the infrastructure for long-term electoral success; sure, there’s almost no way he’ll win Idaho, but speaking there will help the Democratic Senate and House candidates, and will help the local attitude about voting for Democrats. Because, y’know, every election matters, and it just plain makes sense to work for the future as well as winning votes now. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1724 "2008-05-16T03:37:08Z")
[QUOTE=Captain Carrot] Nitpick: it’s not so much that he’s going for an electoral blowout as that he’s competing in every state. Even in the states he won’t win, campaigning there means that McCain will have to spend money to defend himself. [/QUOTE] Which raises another point; Obama is going to be incredibly well funded. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was able to outspend McCain 3 to 1. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1725 "2008-05-16T04:32:02Z")
[QUOTE=Captain Carrot] Nitpick: it’s not so much that he’s going for an electoral blowout as that he’s competing in every state. Even in the states he won’t win, campaigning there means that McCain will have to spend money to defend himself. Besides, he’s also building the infrastructure for long-term electoral success; sure, there’s almost no way he’ll win Idaho, but speaking there will help the Democratic Senate and House candidates, and will help the local attitude about voting for Democrats. Because, y’know, every election matters, and it just plain makes sense to work for the future as well as winning votes now. [/QUOTE] My nitpick is that your comment isn’t a nitpick! 🙂 It is a well reasoned and well made substantive difference of opinion. And I agree in as much that yes he will compete even where he cannot win, for the very reasons you and **Fear** have articulated, but I do think that he is motivated to deliver an electoral blow-out, because just as much he wants to be one of the “transformational” Presidents, and a percieved mandate is the way to accomplish that. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1726 "2008-05-16T04:39:35Z")
And it [begins.](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10361.html) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1727 "2008-05-16T12:18:46Z")
[QUOTE=Wildfire\*\*MM] according to wikipedia there are 793 superdelegats. That mean that over 200 of them have not decided who to suport yet. [/QUOTE] [DemConWatch says 796 is (currently) the correct number](http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/superdelegate-ups-and-downs.html), and gives details at the link. DCW says that (currently) 233 supers haven’t committed to anyone. Some of those 233 are ‘add-on’ superdelegates who haven’t been selected yet. [It’s easy to tell which way the wind is blowing, though.](http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-endorsement-notes.html) Just this week, Obama’s picked up 18 supers, and Clinton’s picked up 1. Since NC/IN, Obama’s picked up 44, and Clinton’s picked up 3. Over the past month, it’s been 69-23, Obama. Etcetera. Clinton began February up by just shy of 100 superdelegates, but now Obama’s up by 20, so the flow’s been pretty much one way for the past 3+ months. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1728 "2008-05-16T12:55:22Z")
[QUOTE=Captain Carrot] Nitpick: it’s not so much that he’s going for an electoral blowout as that he’s competing in every state. Even in the states he won’t win, campaigning there means that McCain will have to spend money to defend himself. Besides, he’s also building the infrastructure for long-term electoral success; sure, there’s almost no way he’ll win Idaho, but speaking there will help the Democratic Senate and House candidates, and will help the local attitude about voting for Democrats. Because, y’know, every election matters, and it just plain makes sense to work for the future as well as winning votes now. [/QUOTE] I agree that the 50-state strategy would help downticket. It may be that it’s one of those years that it doesn’t matter who’s heading the ticket and we’d still see a Democratic landslide. But the NRCC is low on money, may not be able to reload, and has already lost three special elections. Politico (yeah, I know) is reporting that the GOP thinks it could lose another 20 House seats in November. I don’t know what the numbers for the Senate look like, though I was under the impression that there are a fair amount of open and Republican-held seats. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1729 "2008-05-16T13:28:33Z")
Charlotte Observer reports Obama picked up 11 delegates yesterday (wow), inclucing 4 supers and 7 Edwards delegates. [http://www.charlotte.com/559/story/626417.html](http://www.charlotte.com/559/story/626417.html) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1730 "2008-05-16T14:08:18Z")
More on how even significant portions of the South may [be in play.](http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/16/us/politics/16south.html?_r=1&hp=&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1210946475-Inv9haLtwRyfSfDLEt19oQ) > [@](#): > > [Obama] would still have to struggle for white swing voters in the South and in border states like West Virginia, where he lost decisively to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in Tuesday’s presidential primary. In West Virginia, where more than three-fourths of white voters chose Mrs. Clinton, 20 percent of the white voters said the race of the candidate mattered in their choice. > > But in Southern states with large black populations, like Alabama, Mississippi and Virginia, an energized black electorate could create a countervailing force, particularly if conservative white voters choose not to flock to Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee. Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta, predicts “the largest black turnout in the history of the United States” this fall if Mr. Obama is the nominee. > > To hold these states, Republicans may have to work harder than ever. Already, turnout in Democratic primaries this year has substantially exceeded Republican turnout in states like Arkansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia. > > Some analysts suggest that North Carolina and Virginia may even be within reach for the Democratic nominee, and they point to the surprising result in a Congressional special election in Mississippi this week as an indicator of things to come. ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1731 "2008-05-16T14:34:39Z")
If Bush keeps helping McCain by comparing Obama to Chamberlain, I’ll have to revise my ‘hopeful’ to ‘damn straight’. Especially if it continues to lead to exchanges like [neo-dope Kevin James’ total smackdown on Hardball.](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/15/hardball-shoutfest-matthe_n_102020.html) I watched it as it happened and could not believe it. My son was screaming “Poland! Poland!\*” at the TV the whole time. \*OK, it was Czechoslovakia-- but I learned it as ‘giving away Poland’ too. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1732 "2008-05-16T19:53:51Z")
Looks like things have calmed down today. Typical for a Friday. According to DemConWatch (thanks to \*\*RT \*\* for the source) Obama got one more superdelegate. Also, Hillary got one today! (Promised to her privately months ago.) In magnanimous spirit, let’s have a big hand for her. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1733 "2008-05-16T19:56:12Z")
Hand a bit busy at the moment, will a finger do? ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1734 "2008-05-16T20:18:12Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] Hand a bit busy at the moment, will a finger do? [/QUOTE] I prefer to be gracious in victory, but that may just be me. _shrug_ ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1735 "2008-05-16T20:22:59Z")
Well, you know what they say, grace goeth before the turkey. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1736 "2008-05-16T20:35:10Z")
[QUOTE=Cervaise] Well, you know what they say, grace goeth before the turkey. [/QUOTE] Well, we’ve already shown her her giblets. Now we’re just waiting for her to realize what that means… ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1737 "2008-05-16T21:52:27Z")
Graciousness, huh? Yeah, I could probably fake that… But who’d believe me? ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1738 "2008-05-16T22:24:05Z")
Well, I did call for magnanimity. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1739 "2008-05-16T22:38:02Z")
> [@](#): > > My wife’s religious right aunt (hereafter known as email-glurdge-lady) has already sent out her “thank god we don’t have to vote for Macain now that Barr is in the race” email glurdge. > > He’ll save us from Gay marriage dontchaknow. It boggles my mind that Bob Barr, a man who’s led the fight to have the government regulate the marriages and religious affiliations of American citizens and has tried to ban abortions and medical marijuana, calls himself a member of the Libertarian Party. Hasn’t he read any of their literature? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2008, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1740 "2008-05-17T00:30:53Z")
[QUOTE=asterion] …Politico (yeah, I know) is reporting… [/QUOTE] Why do you say it like that? Does Politico have a bad reputation? How would you describe it? I know very little about it. It’s a website, right? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726.md?page=86) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726.md?page=88)