# Fork Hillary 3: The Final Forking **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 18, 2008, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726 "2008-03-18T00:01:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 94
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1861 "2008-05-22T03:57:34Z")
COULD it really be that staying in the race keeps the spotlight on the Democrats and away from McCain? Could this actually be her plan? ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1862 "2008-05-22T04:02:27Z")
[QUOTE=Biggirl] [She can’t be bargained with. She can’t be reasoned with. She doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And she absolutely will not stop, ever.](http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/21/clinton-presses-her-case-in-florida/) [/QUOTE] She’s a dementor? ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1863 "2008-05-22T04:08:11Z")
[QUOTE=Siam Sam] COULD it really be that staying in the race keeps the spotlight on the Democrats and away from McCain? Could this actually be her plan? [/QUOTE] No. ---
**Author:** ![Koxinga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/4af34b/32.png) [@Koxinga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Koxinga)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1864 "2008-05-22T04:29:40Z")
[QUOTE=NurseCarmen] One thing that gets me among these claims from the Hillary camp is that sexism is the problem in the US in this race and racism isn’t. There is currently only one black person in the US Senate. There are 16 women. There are around 39 black people in congress. There are around 61 women. It would seem to me that the ism that is the biggest problem isn’t sex, it’s race. To claim otherwise makes it seem obvious that they are searching for a reason other than a lousy campaign that their person lost. [/QUOTE] To be fair, going by proportion of the population, there “ought” to be around 64 black congressmen but 267 women. ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1865 "2008-05-22T11:22:19Z")
[QUOTE=kaylasdad99] She’s a dementor? [/QUOTE] Nah. The Terminator. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1866 "2008-05-22T12:31:27Z")
I really don’t get what she’s at here. Hell, even if Florida and Michigan were seated fully she’d [lose.](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) > [@](#): > > the Florida/Michigan brouhaha is much ado about nothing. Even if Clinton gets her way with the two states, she’d still need about 80 percent of superdelegate commitments to secure the nomination. Clinton’s arguments about electability and the popular vote might persuade a dozen delegates, or a couple dozen, or perhaps even the majority. It won’t persuade 80 percent. (Or more realistically, the 90 percent she’d need if there is some sort of compromise on Florida and Michigan). Like my cite I am flummoxed. This sort of rhetoric, which undermines attempts to mend fences in Florida in preparation for the general, is unlikely to win over many supers, and certainly not the overwhelming majority that she’d need. What can she possibly be hoping to accomplish? ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1867 "2008-05-22T12:39:50Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] I really don’t get what she’s at here. Hell, even if Florida and Michigan were seated fully she’d [lose.](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) Like my cite I am flummoxed. This sort of rhetoric, which undermines attempts to mend fences in Florida in preparation for the general, is unlikely to win over many supers, and certainly not the overwhelming majority that she’d need. What can she possibly be hoping to accomplish? [/QUOTE] Honestly, I am hoping she is simply talking until June 3rd. It’s a week and a half away, I’m hoping she bows out then. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1868 "2008-05-22T12:51:29Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] I really don’t get what she’s at here. Hell, even if Florida and Michigan were seated fully she’d [lose.](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) Like my cite I am flummoxed. This sort of rhetoric, which undermines attempts to mend fences in Florida in preparation for the general, is unlikely to win over many supers, and certainly not the overwhelming majority that she’d need. What can she possibly be hoping to accomplish? [/QUOTE] I don’t understand the process that well, but I think the magic number (2024/2025?) is based on the available delegates discluding Michigan and Florida. If they are included, they up the number of delegates Obama requires to officially win the nomination, and make it more likely it reaches a brokered convention. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1869 "2008-05-22T13:08:11Z")
**Senor** the math done in my cite takes that into account. Even with Michigan and Florida _fully_ seated and the needed delegate count up, Obama would be able to cinch it on June 3 with about 5 supers per day and Clinton would 80% of them to go her way to win. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1870 "2008-05-22T14:17:36Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] **Senor** the math done in my cite takes that into account. Even with Michigan and Florida _fully_ seated and the needed delegate count up, Obama would be able to cinch it on June 3 with about 5 supers per day and Clinton would 80% of them to go her way to win. [/QUOTE] [Here’s DemConWatch’s arithmetic.](http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/fl-mi-by-numbers_21.html) If MI and FL are fully seated, as voted for, but with MI’s 55 uncommitteds going to Obama, then Obama would be ahead, 2098-1972, with 2209 needed for the win. If we assume Obama picks up a combined 35 delegates from PR, MT, and SD (sure, that seems like low-balling, but then I thought 46 delegates from OR and KY was lowballing too, and he only seems to have won 44), then he still would need 76 more supers or Edwards defectors. At 5 a day, that would take him until June 6. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1871 "2008-05-22T15:46:35Z")
Obama’s got to play the endgame carefully, if he wants to win in November, and so far it looks like he’s doing so. But for the next election cycle, I don’t think the DNC could or should let Michigan and Florida off scot-free for breaking the rules, even if Obama could still clinch the nomination by completely yielding to Hillary on how to go about seating their delegations. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1872 "2008-05-22T16:31:55Z")
A good update is [here](http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/21/america/tube.php). ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1873 "2008-05-22T17:24:25Z")
[QUOTE=Siam Sam] A good update is [here](http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/21/america/tube.php). [/QUOTE] That is an interesting article, it says Clinton won’t just leave the race, but will be veiled in a cloak of invisibility after she steps down. Maybe a quick shout out to Barack, but as soon as she’s done, she’s done. No need to have her in the news any more. I tend to agree. She will campaign for Obama a little, sending heartfelt pleas to her constituency but then she’ll fade away… ---
**Author:** ![Merkwurdigliebe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/74df32/32.png) [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1874 "2008-05-22T17:57:05Z")
Don’t you guys get it? It’s not about the voters, and it never was. She doesn’t want Obama to get ANY delegates out of Michigan. If she gets her votes and the rest are uncomitted, then that will mean it will be a lot closer up to the convention. It has become clear now that she is prepared to do that which we had all feared from the beginning. She will literally do whatever is in her power to win the nomination. The worst part is that now it’s not even a question of money. She can go on without money now since it’s almost over. Andrew Sullivan said this: > [@](#): > > How do you respond to a sociopath like this? She agreed that Michigan and Florida should be punished for moving up their primaries. Obama took his name off the ballot in deference to their agreement and the rules of the party. That he should now be punished for playing by the rules and she should be rewarded for skirting them is unconscionable. The fact that the remaining superdelegates out there haven’t settled this already is oh so fucking typical of democrats. This lilly-livered part doesn’t deserve Obama, let me tell you. Democrats have been pathetic in my lifetime, and the worst offender was the Iraq war resolution. That was downright pathetic. And how many of them who voted for the war are still around? I wouldn’t be surprised if they were the uncomitted superdelegates. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1875 "2008-05-22T18:06:39Z")
Wait for the fullness of time, my friend. Remember that Obama has already seen the beginning and the end. It is our frail human nature, trapped in this temporal prison, that fools us into believing that he is not yet annointed. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1876 "2008-05-22T20:09:01Z")
Did someone close off the spigot of super delegates or something? Just 2 yesterday, and none so far today? And didn’t Pelosi say she’d endorse whoever ended up with the majority of delegates? ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1877 "2008-05-22T20:19:33Z")
[QUOTE=Biggirl] Nah. The Terminator. [/QUOTE] Better yet: [The Black Knight](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oO5soX3iLtk). ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1878 "2008-05-22T20:33:56Z")
Shouldn’t that be the Hard Working White Knight? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1879 "2008-05-22T21:17:18Z")
[Karen Tumulty of _Time_](http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1808470,00.html): > [@](#): > > What will Clinton’s terms of surrender turn out to be? Her husband, for one, seems to have a pretty clear idea what he thinks she should get as a consolation prize. In Bill Clinton’s view, she has earned nothing short of an offer to be Obama’s running mate, according to some who are close to the former President. Bill “is pushing real hard for this to happen,” says a friend. Yeah, and it’ll happen right after Bill’s exiled to [Tristan da Cunha](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tristan_da_Cunha) for the next eight and a half years. And [another word from Al Giordano](http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=1248), make of it what you will (I’m not sure either): > [@](#): > > The Field can now confirm, based on multiple sources, something that both campaigns publicly deny: that Senator Clinton has directly told Senator Obama that she wants to be his vice presidential nominee, and that Senator Obama politely but straightforwardly and irrevocably said “no.” Obama is going to pick his own running mate based on his own criteria and vetting process. I don’t know how good Al’s sources are, but Obama’s a very perceptive guy. He knows that if he brings Hillary on board, Bill inevitably comes as part of the package. It would certainly muddy up the appearance of his being in charge. The circus around them could jerk the spotlight away from him at any random moment. He knows this. He’d be nuts to take her on. Just not gonna happen. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726/1880 "2008-05-22T22:16:58Z")
Amen, amen, amen. Hope you’re right! Now even the Democratic governor of New York says Hillary’s in trouble: [http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726.md?page=93) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fork-hillary-3-the-final-forking/441726.md?page=95)