National polls have absolutely no relevance. The nomination isn’t being put up to a national referendum. Obama is going to be the nominee.
Ah, but it would be one of several elements she’d need to pull it off.[ol]
[li]Current momentum going her way.[/li][li]Under 100 in pledged delegates.[/li][li]Ahead in the popular vote.[/li][/ol]
With real votes in Florida and Michigan she had a snowball’s chance of 3, and maybe even an even smaller chance of 2. Without either state voting for real she has no measurable chance. But she is getting Obama slowed down and that counts for something.
If Obama is behind in national polls, the supers will consider it less risky to vote for Hillary. Don’t get me wrong, I think Wright will lose his sting in the next week and a half and Obama will start bouncing back up, but if he doesn’t… If he really gets creamed in PA…
He may get beat but it won’t be creamed… I’m going to Philly from CT twice in the next 4 weeks. To help out…he hasn’t lost any Umph from his road warriors… That will count for a lot. Again.
Go back and look at my post #11. Or better yet, I’ll just repost the text here:
Even with the fake votes in Florida and Michigan she’s still significantly behind. Even if she makes it up in Pennsylvania, there’s still North Carolina, Indiana, Oregon, et al coming up, where he’s expected to beat her, and wherein he will make up any loss in popular vote lead she may have temporarily taken away from him.
The only thing that will change this nomination is if the superdelegates overrule the people who voted in more than 50 legitimate primaries and caucuses throughout the country and the world.
And if the supers hand this to her because the Wright controversy appears to have taken root enough to scare them into thinking Hillary can win, you can count on having John McCain as President. If Hillary Clinton takes the nomination in that manner, rest assured the Democrats will lose a significant amount of support in the general election. And don’t think the superdelegates don’t know this, too.
Meanwhle, over at DailyKos, one diarist reports on Obama’s venture into AM sports radio in Philly:
Shocking as you may find this…I agree. However, I wanted to put that in this thread because not everyone thinks that Hillary the Hun is ready for forkage.
-XT
Note the dates: most of the polling was done while Wright’s “highlight” reel was saturating the Web and the airwaves and before Obama’s March 18 Philadelphia speech.
Leave it to the Democrats to lemons out of lemonade.
This should tell you why Obama does so well. He finds the pulse - or his campaign does - and gets in there and uses it.
It’s not always a sure thing, though. Edwards got a lot of credit from me, and likely plenty of other people, when he announced his candidacy on The Daily Show for 2004, and look where it got him.
As I always say, every silver lining has its cloud.
Besides, I don’t really think she is forked (yet)…I think she is just Zugzwang. Maybe she should consider sacrificing Bill though…
-XT
How is that “disrespecting and overturning the voters”? :dubious: Look, either it’s the will of the voters or it’s the rules. Superdelegates are part of the rules. So is an appeal to the rules convention (and so are small states getting extra delagates and Caucuses, both of which have benefited Obama greatly). And the Popular vote has see-sawed back and forth, with just recently Hillary being ahead (Obama has a larger edge in Delegates than votes due to the fact he does very well in Caucuses and small states). I didn’t see Obama quiting then, so as to “preserve the will of the people”- nor would I expect him to. It’s not impossible Hillary will get back her lead in the overall Popular vote, Obama’s lead is very small there. It is nearly impossible for Hillayr to win enough delegates in the primaries, true. But if the final Primary comes and Obama is still ahead by 100 delegates but Hillary has edged him out by a few thousand Popular votes, will all you Obama-ites urge him to quit? :dubious: :dubious:
Hillary may be down, but she’s not out until Obama commands enough votes. Which he doesn’t and almost certainly won’t until the actual Convention.
Get out all the forks you want, :rolleyes: but it’s all wishful thinking until the Convention or until a deal is struck.
Good thing the Clintons never associated with Reverend Wright. Oh wait a minute…
WTF are you talking about?
Are you counting the fucking Michigan votes where Obama wasn’t even on the goddamned ballot? I swear that sounds REALLY PATHETIC.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
Obama has 700k more without FL and MI
with Florida, AS IS, he has 400k more.
with Florida and Michigan as is he’s up by 80k.
So you’re not only wrong on your initial facts, you’re wrong on every single possible way to count the votes there.
Just go home already, She’s not going to win the popular vote. If Florida and Michigan re-vote she’ll obviously be MUCH worse in your skewed logic, so really, the only way for Hillary to even get close in popular vote totals would be for Florida to count as-is (not terrible but there are ideas there) and for Michigan to count as-is, which is the most ridiculously undemocratic thing in the world
WHILE we’re talking about votes vs. rules, by the way…The DNC (the organization who makes the rules) says no to this. So if you’re going to depend on the rules to give it to Hillary, you also HAVE to accept that FL and MI don’t count. You can’t have the rules your way for the super-delegate salvation, and the vote your way when the rules are inconvenient. The reason why Hillary’s so full of shit, is that she’s out there in MI pretending like she cares about the voters’ voices, when it’s obviously she wouldn’t give a damn if she had lost. But that’s understandable. But she wants to overturn a 700k popular vote deficit with a super-delegate coup. But as you admit, that’s all part of the rules. But the point is this: There are no rules that say that the super-delegates have to choose any particular way.
But I gotta admit, how infuriating it is that you and some Hillbots are quoting this popular-vote non-sense.
HOW CAN YOU DARE COUNT VOTES WHERE OBAMA WASN’T ON THE BALLOT?
Seriously? It just blows my fucking mind.
But you know what, maybe it won’t matter soon. I just saw on MSNBC that Hillary has been essentially calling super-delegates trying to get them to go to her over the pastor problem. I predict that will go VERY badly.
Say it all you want, but Hillary winning the nomination with a deficit of > 80 delegates and 400k votes isn’t (small d) democratic. The party rules are there specifically for this reason, I know, but I think the mood of the party is VERY much in favor of doing this thing as democratically as possible.
I SERIOUSLY can’t wait until this thing is over so I can point out just how ridiculous you and every other Hillary supporter has been. It became sad and pathetic sometime right before Ohio.
Why not? They are votes, and Obama choose to remove his name, knowing he would do poorly anyway.
Yes, around 80k, which is a very small lead. Why are you claiming my facts are wrong? Obama is ahead now, he wasn’t earlier.
The "rules’ include an appeal: "“T*he states have two options, Dean says.
“They can come back to the DNC with a set of delegate selection procedures that do comply with the rules of the 48 other states, or they can appeal to the credentials committee at the Democratic National Convention,” he said.
*"
An Appeal is part of the rules.
So, just answer me this- If the last Primary is held and Obama is still ahead by around 100 delegates, but Hillary is ahead by a few thousand popular votes- would you suggest that Obama quits? :dubious: Would any Obama-ite here suggest that? Puhleeze.
No, they DO NOT count.
Because in a DEMOCRACY, we have contested elections. Are you a fucking retard? This isn’t Soviet Russia. This isn’t a Saddam Hussein sham election where he won 99 percent of the vote. Votes count in a fair contest. Michigan wasn’t fair because Obama wasn’t on the ballot. Hillary shouldn’t have been on it either if she’d been playing this in good faith. But Hillary doesn’t fucking understand the meaning of good faith.
The amount of bullshit rules lawyering you’re willing to go through to get “your gal” in because it’s her turn or because “she’s a fighter” (For fucks sake we know that now) is getting to be a bit too much. Seriously, so you’re saying that Obama should call for a re-vote in Michigan now so he can gain several hundred thousand popular votes?
But if Hillary somehow got more of the popular vote (Highly doubtful without MI) I would personally say that it’s up in the air. I don’t think the argument for Obama would be very strong in that case. Those two factors would counter-balance in my opinion.
And you’re going to have to come up with a cite as to why Obama would have done poorly in MI. It has a very high African American population in Detroit, and Jessie Jackson won when he ran. I don’t think you can make the argument that Obama would do so poorly.
I can’t believe you can SERIOUSLY sit here and fucking make the point that Michigan’s votes mean a single fucking thing. They absolutely do not.
But hey, just go ahead and waste everyone’s fucking time and energy until August because you are so goddamned blind to see. Hillary should be ashamed of what she’s doing to the democratic party. I always wanted Obama to win, but never unfairly.
Kudos to Obama, from a supporter of Hillary Clinton.
I did not thing anyone had the stuff to stop her, although I knew it was going to be a damned rough haul for her.
He has exceeded my expectations. I now consider him more likely than her to claim the nom, although he’d be damned stupid to take that for granted. She doesn’t shut down easily. Given the tiniest crack of opportunity, she’ll take it and represent the Dems. And, dammit, it’s hers if she earns it. But credit where it is due: it’s his if HE earns it, and he has done quite well.
I like the idea being floated of offering her the Senate Maj Leader’s chair. She’d be spectacular there.