# Four justices of the SCOTUS are in their 70s . . . **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 10, 2012, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624 "2012-11-10T22:22:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/1 "2012-11-10T22:22:13Z")
Scalia (76), Kennedy (76), Ginsburg (79), and Breyer (74). How many (more) seats will Obama get to fill, do you think, and how? What will the SCOTUS look like in 2016? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/2 "2012-11-10T22:42:40Z")
Ginsburg’s health problems are well known, so she’s the best bet to be replaced even if she were younger. Scalia is too mean to quit, and Kennedy loves being the deciding vote. Thomas, by some reports, does not take care of himself, so don’t be surprised. So I’ll go with 2: Ginsburg and Thomas. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/3 "2012-11-10T22:58:44Z")
On the theory that liberal justices like to retire when Democrats are in office (and vice versa), I’ll go with Ginsburg and Breyer. I imagine actuarial tables could tell us the likelihood of one of the conservative judges dying in the next 4 years- I wonder what the odds are? ---
**Author:** ![gaffa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e68b1a/32.png) [@gaffa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gaffa)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/4 "2012-11-10T23:06:28Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Scalia is too mean to quit… Yeah, he’s got that Dick “The Good Die Young…So I’m Going To Live Forever” Cheney thing going on. ---
**Author:** ![zoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zoid/32/336_2.png) [@zoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zoid)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/5 "2012-11-10T23:06:53Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > On the theory that liberal justices like to retire when Democrats are in office (and vice versa), I’ll go with Ginsburg and Breyer. I imagine actuarial tables could tell us the likelihood of one of the conservative judges dying in the next 4 years- I wonder what the odds are? I kind of agree with this on a gut level, but given their ages (Scalia 76, Kennedy 76) I think there’s a pretty good chance one or the other may not be up to another 4 years, so I’ll say 3. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/6 "2012-11-10T23:09:23Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > On the theory that liberal justices like to retire when Democrats are in office (and vice versa), I’ll go with Ginsburg and Breyer. I imagine actuarial tables could tell us the likelihood of one of the conservative judges dying in the next 4 years- I wonder what the odds are? A 76 year-old has a one-in-six chance of dying before they hit 80, according to the SS actuarial tables. I imagine the chances are somewhat better for a SCOTUS judge since they’re both upper-class and presumably healthy enough at 76 to have a job. On the other hand, the table doesn’t include the chance of a debilitating but not lethal illness, injury or dementia, which are probably not trivial for someone in their late 70’s. So I’d imagine one-in-six is probably a decent guesstimate for Scalia or Kennedy being forced out due to death/illness. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/7 "2012-11-11T01:35:36Z")
What kind of justices would he appoint? Any ideas? ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/8 "2012-11-11T01:36:41Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What kind of justices would he appoint? Any ideas? I’ll go out on a limb and say probably ones similar to Sotomayor and Kagan. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/9 "2012-11-11T01:42:37Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > I’ll go out on a limb and say probably ones similar to Sotomayor and Kagan. Similar how? More women? ---
**Author:** ![Giles](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/giles/32/60_2.png) [@Giles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Giles)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/10 "2012-11-11T01:47:11Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Similar how? More women? Well, women tend to live longer, so they would be likely to stay on the court longer 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/11 "2012-11-11T01:48:32Z")
At present two justices are Reagan appointees (Scalia and Kennedy); one GHW Bush (Thomas); two Clinton (Ginsburg and Breyer); two W (Roberts and Alito); two Obama (Sotomayor and Kagan). So, if Obama gets to appoint any more, his influence on the Court will predominate (comparatively to other presidents’) for decades to come. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/12 "2012-11-11T02:28:22Z")
I honestly normally do NOT wish ill of people, even politicians with whom I strongly disagree, but Thomas and Scalia, and even Kennedy, have been so terrible that I honestly will not feel one iota of regret if they should drop dead tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/13 "2012-11-11T15:26:14Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What kind of justices would he appoint? Any ideas? I’d say that may depend on what new filibuster rules are in place. The more difficult it is to filibuster, the more likely Obama may be to nominate an aggressively progressive justice. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/14 "2012-11-11T15:33:42Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Similar how? More women? More New Yorkers from Harvard. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/15 "2012-11-11T16:17:44Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > A 76 year-old has a one-in-six chance of dying before they hit 80, according to the SS actuarial tables. Is that across all demographics? Because each justice needs to be assessed based on data from the demographic they most closely align with. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/16 "2012-11-11T17:04:08Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > I honestly normally do NOT wish ill of people, even politicians with whom I strongly disagree, but Thomas and Scalia, and even Kennedy, have been so terrible that I honestly will not feel one iota of regret if they should drop dead tomorrow. I must admit, I do find myself wishing Roberts and Alito were a whole lot older or had serious health problems. :o ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/17 "2012-11-11T17:10:34Z")
If the Dems would hold the Repubs to genuine filibusters, it wouldn’t matter who he appoints. Let them waste their time on a justice or two and they’ll never be able to filibuster major reforms. Or vice versa. ---
**Author:** ![DMark](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@DMark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMark)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/18 "2012-11-11T17:42:25Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I imagine actuarial tables could tell us the likelihood of one of the conservative judges dying in the next 4 years- **I wonder what the odds are**? Ask Nate Silver! My guess is the more liberal judges will hang on 2 or 3 years, and then retire so that Obama can replace them with someone who is more their leaning. I doubt any of the more conservative judges would go freely, unless they were really ill. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/19 "2012-11-11T19:08:15Z")
Two would be my guess - probably Ginsburg and Scalia. Scalia just seems to be losing it upstairs. He’s already become a bit of an embarrassment to the Court, and that’s only going to get worse. I predict that by 2014, there’ll be a lot of pressure from his fellow Justices to call it quits. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624/20 "2012-11-11T19:40:56Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Two would be my guess - probably Ginsburg and Scalia. Scalia just seems to be losing it upstairs. He’s already become a bit of an embarrassment to the Court, and that’s only going to get worse. I predict that by 2014, there’ll be a lot of pressure from his fellow Justices to call it quits. Scalia? You’ll have to pry his black robe from his cold, dead hands. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/four-justices-of-the-scotus-are-in-their-70s/640624.md?page=2)