# Fraudulent Elections in Iran **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 13, 2009, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671 "2009-06-13T16:22:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2009, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/181 "2009-06-21T22:21:04Z")
That said, I want to commend my fellow Dopers for their stern resistance to the temptation of cheap wordplay, there is no instance of the phrase “clerical error” in reference to the _mullahs_. Good show, that! Pip, pip! ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2009, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/182 "2009-06-21T22:24:14Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Well, now that everybody’s calmed down… > > **mswas** , you sort of took my point, and sort of didn’t. What I’m on about there is a variety of _post hoc ergo propter hoc_: the notion that “after” is the same as “because of”, which is a perfectly ordinary and entirely human error. To be intelligently considered, causation must have a reasonable time limit. I agree, and that’s what I meant by: [QUOTE=mswas] If it is successful it will be partly because of Bush and partly despite him. [/QUOTE] The reality of the situation is that if Iraq’s democracy works then it will be a result of its instigation. But also if it works it will work because the people of Iraq make it work, Bush has nothing to do with it now. > [@](#): > > One might say that America saved England’s bacon in WWII because George III fucked up (which is an oversimplification by several degrees of magnitude, Ms. Tuchman would scold me right round for that…). And even though that is a _rational_ inference, it isn’t a \*reasonable \*one. Well yes, I think that’s extrapolating too much. We’re not talking about 200 years later here. But George III is a poor example because George III didn’t found the colonies, they were founded before he came to be King. Bush in this instance is one of the founders of Iraqi Democracy as distasteful as that notion might be. > [@](#): > > Even if and when, _insallah_, Iraq shall stumble from the wreckage visited upon her, it will be no credit to GeeDub, nor, I daresay, for any of us who will always wonder if we might have done more. Right, but what is doing more? It seems like anyone who disapproves of our actions in Iraq wants us to do less. It’s sort of like a Father and his credit for the success of his child. He may have been a no good rotten son of a bitch, but if it weren’t for him knocking the Mother up, that child never would have existed to go on and be successful. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2009, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/183 "2009-06-21T23:39:19Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > That’s the last time I am going to try the report this post function. > > And I will NEVER again pay any attention to your moderation **tomndebb**. I will ignore it in 100% of cases. You’re welcome to ban me, I don’t give a fuck. > > I’m going to call people idiots, trolls and liars to my heart’s content now since the report this post function is clearly useless when it comes to me. Well, if you really want to get banned, you certainly seem to understand how to do it. > [@mswas](#): > > I never misread what elucidator wrote. I was never in disagreement with anyone about it. And yet, you nattered on for post after post making some obscure objections just as though you had not understood the point. Repeating that you understood the point and then arguing as though you hads missed it is not particularly persuasive. Even in size seven font you appear to fail to understand the matter, as though a reference to George III was somehow invalid when referring “ **directly** ” to a comment on George W. Bush. If the point is so clearly understood by you, why do you even have to mention it (over and over and over. . . )? If you want others to recognize what you do and do not understand, then it would behoove you to go practice your writing skills to the point where your comments are always clear. As to the terrible troubles you have with my moderating, you should probably note that you bring on most of your own troubles. You have already stated, openly, that [you like to argue for the sake of arguing](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8612373&postcount=125). You constantly take positions that you claim you hold only as a devil’s advocate, yet you invest your posts with the sort of personal language and snide comments that one expects from a true believer rather than a person trying to simply argue a position for a third party with whom you might not even agree. I’ve never let my kids use the “he hit me back first” defense and I am not going to start letting purportedly adult posters employ it, here. The one direct personal insult hurled was by **sailor** who was admonished for that act. Following that, I noted that a bunch of you were each participating in a hijack for personal gratification and I told you all to quit it. I then noted that your persistentce regarding the point that you claim to understand while arguinfg as though you failed to understand it was not helping the situation and suggested a remedy. This discussion is done in this thread. Knock it off. [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![kidchameleon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/898d66/32.png) [@kidchameleon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kidchameleon)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/184 "2009-06-22T00:17:34Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > That said, I want to commend my fellow Dopers for their stern resistance to the temptation of cheap wordplay, there is no instance of the phrase “clerical error” in reference to the _mullahs_. > > Good show, that! Pip, pip! Mullah bullah, oh mullah bullah! ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/185 "2009-06-22T00:18:05Z")
:rolleyes: What a load of dishonest bullshit. You shouldn’t continue a hijack in your moderation. You might not take the ‘he hit me back first’ defense, but you clearly use the, ‘Johnny, Nathan knock it off, I don’t care who started it, it doesn’t matter who’s right, but obviously I favor Nathan.’ approach. You are such a fucking hypocrite. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/186 "2009-06-22T00:27:29Z")
Notice how you can never help getting into these without saying some snarky comment to me? You cannot moderate and just let it be. I can accept it, but when someone is calling me an idiot for something I didn’t say and hten you single ME out like you do EVERY FUCKING TIME I am getting piled on, well, it just shows that your goal isn’t to stop the argument. I don’t know why you haven’t banned me a long time ago if you hate me so much, because now you’ve given me every incentive to ignore you and your moderation by taking sides in a debate you didn’t need to take sides in. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/187 "2009-06-22T00:35:03Z")
Take a time out. (One day.) [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/188 "2009-06-22T03:11:54Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > Notice how you can never help getting into these without saying some snarky comment to me? You cannot moderate and just let it be. I can accept it, but when someone is calling me an idiot for something I didn’t say and hten you single ME out like you do EVERY FUCKING TIME I am getting piled on, well, it just shows that your goal isn’t to stop the argument. > > I don’t know why you haven’t banned me a long time ago if you hate me so much, because now you’ve given me every incentive to ignore you and your moderation by taking sides in a debate you didn’t need to take sides in. Who peed in your Cheerios, dude? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![sailor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a587f6/32.png) [@sailor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sailor)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/189 "2009-06-22T03:19:23Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > Knock off the personal insults in Great Debates. > > [/Moderating] OOPS! We are both also participating in a thread in the Pit and I got the wrong thread. My apologies to mswas and to the board. ---
**Author:** ![Abe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f1d935/32.png) [@Abe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Abe)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 7:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/190 "2009-06-22T07:10:47Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > Uh, no, it isn’t. 2/3 of 2/3 is 4/9, which is less than a majority. Although not a \*\*majority \*\*of both counted and uncounted votes, it was still a clear and commanding lead over the competition. When the results were first announced, Ahmedinejad (we are told) had roughly 66% of the vote counted and roughly 44% of the \*total \*vote (counted + uncounted). It would have been considered a remarkable anomaly had Mousavi gone on to win the votes left to be counted, and thus caught up with the incumbent. > [@](#): > > A good half of those polls are worthless, because in Iran campaign season is for two weeks before the election. 30 days, or four weeks. And the polls are hardly worthless, they provide the best indication available as to the political preferences of the population. The Wikipedia article I linked to earlier discusses some of the problems with many of the polls, and mentions very clearly that many of them are unreliable. Of interest is this part which cites a poll generally considered reliable: > [@](#): > > from [2009 Iranian presidential election - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_presidential_election,_2009#Opinion_polls) > > **An independent poll, conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion, a nonprofit institute that researches attitudes toward extremism, found that Ahmadinejad was leading by a margin of 2 to 1.** 34% said they’d vote for Ahmadinejad, 14% favored Mousavi, 2% favored Karroubi, 1% favored Rezaee and 27% were undecided. The poll was taken from May 11 to May 20. The poll was carried out by a company whose work for ABC News and the BBC in the Middle East has received an Emmy award. Polling itself was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. Writing in the Washington Post, **pollsters Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty have used this to suggest that Ahmadinejad’s apparent victory might reflect the will of the Iranian people**.[51] The poll was quoted by Reuters,[52] Khaleej Times[53] and Jim Muir of BBC News.[54] However, the Irish Times, while quoting the poll, also pointed out that it was taken three weeks before the election, and electoral campaigning in Iran is only allowed for a period of 30 days prior to the election date, which means this poll was conducted only one week into the campaigning.[55] (My bolding) > [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > Mousavi losing in his home city is utterly ridiculous. Iran has strongly regional politics, and the notion of an Azer losing an Azeri city in an Azeri province is outrageous. It is bizarre but not that outrageous. This particular point was discussed in at least two of the sources cited in this thread. Here is a relevant analysis: > [@](#): > > from [http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23745.html](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23745.html) > > Some “Iran experts” argue that Mousavi’s Azeri background and “Azeri accent” mean that he was guaranteed to win Iran’s Azeri-majority provinces; since Ahmadinejad did better than Mousavi in these areas, fraud is the only possible explanation. > > But Ahmadinejad himself speaks Azeri quite fluently as a consequence of his eight years serving as a popular and successful official in two Azeri-majority provinces; during the campaign, he artfully quoted Azeri and Turkish poetry — in the original — in messages designed to appeal to Iran’s Azeri community. (And we should not forget that the supreme leader is Azeri.) The notion that Mousavi was somehow assured of victory in Azeri-majority provinces is simply not grounded in reality. Bottom line: Ahmadinejad may be a dick, but history clearly shows that being a dick does not prevent candidates from winning elections. In order to verify the allegations of election fraud more concrete support is needed than we thinking that this or that result is (or isn’t) ridiculous. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/191 "2009-06-22T11:31:05Z")
> [@Abe](#): > > Bottom line: Ahmadinejad may be a dick, but history clearly shows that being a dick does not prevent candidates from winning elections. In order to verify the allegations of election fraud more concrete support is needed than we thinking that this or that result is (or isn’t) ridiculous. Game, set, match: [In 50 cities, the number of votes cast exceeded the number of eligible voters.](http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/21/iran.election/index.html) That’s from Iran’s Guardian Council, although they say it did not make a difference in the result. Other articles note this isn’t the first time that kind of thing has happened in Iran, so this wouldn’t be the first election with significant fraud. Nonetheless I’d say that makes it very plain there was fraud this time, too. ---
**Author:** ![Abe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f1d935/32.png) [@Abe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Abe)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/192 "2009-06-22T12:01:59Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Game, set, match: [In 50 cities, the number of votes cast exceeded the number of eligible voters.](http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/21/iran.election/index.html) That’s from Iran’s Guardian Council, although they say it did not make a difference in the result. Other articles note this isn’t the first time that kind of thing has happened in Iran, so this wouldn’t be the first election with significant fraud. Nonetheless I’d say that makes it very plain there was fraud this time, too. This is definitely the most damning factor I have seen in this story and does suggest fraud. Which I do think happened, by the way, I just think there should be conclusive proof of it. I had a look for more information and came up with this (amusingly titled) explanation from the spokesman for the Council of Guardians: > [@](#): > > from IBTimes UK: [Iran Guardian Council admits voting irregularity but says it’s normal](http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/20090622/iran-iranian-elections-guardian-council-turnout.htm) > > Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei, the spokesman for the Guardian Council, which has been tasked with looking at 646 separate allegations of breaches of the electoral rules, admitted on the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) Channel 2, that turnout was impossibly high in a number of places. > > He said, “Statistics provided by the candidates, who claim more than 100% of those eligible have cast their ballot in 80-170 cities are not accurate – the incident has happened in only 50 cities,” > > However he claimed that this was a normal phenomenon as people were able to vote in any province or city, according to Iran’s state-run press TV. > > He added that as many as 3 million votes could have been affected by this effect and that, should the losing candidates request, the affected ballot boxes could be recounted, however the spokesman conceded this may not have a decisive effect on the result of the election. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Here we have an official attempting (pretending?) to show some transparency and communicate about the problem. I do not think either activity is ordinary behaviour for the Iranian government. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/193 "2009-06-22T13:10:36Z")
> [@Abe](#): > > It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Here we have an official attempting (pretending?) to show some transparency and communicate about the problem. I do not think either activity is ordinary behaviour for the Iranian government. At the moment, they’re saying ‘Forget about it, Jake, it’s Chinatown.’ I’m sure this is not the first time this kind of fraud happened; CNN said that in 2001, ballots cast exceeded registration by about 13 percent. But even if the Iranian people knew about this before and didn’t care, it’s different now. The protestors are not going to be satisfied that the government has admitted what they already knew. ---
**Author:** ![Plan\_B](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Plan\_B](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plan_B)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/194 "2009-06-22T14:04:17Z")
Interesting video here. I don’t have the permalink but if you go to [instapundit.com](http://instapundit.com) and scroll down to 8:57 AM today you’ll see it. BTW, there are many more links at instapundit for those who wish to follow this on an hourly basis. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671.md?page=9)