# Fraudulent Elections in Iran **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 13, 2009, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671 "2009-06-13T16:22:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/21 "2009-06-13T19:38:52Z")
I’m going to ignore the call to arms or whatever in the OP and just look at some of the numbers. Last I saw Ahmedinejad was ahead by about 29 points. Compare that to some famous American blowout landslides. Roosevelt beat Hoover by 18 points. Reagan beat Mondale by 18 points as well. Roosevelt rolled over by the hapless Alf Landon by 24 points. Ahemdinejad easily outdistanced all of them! If one were to believe these results one would have to conclude the Ahmedinejad is not only the clear winner, but that he is _phenomenally_ popular in Iran despite the country’s disastrous economy. ---
**Author:** ![nameless](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/779978/32.png) [@nameless](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nameless)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/22 "2009-06-13T19:40:54Z")
\ ---
**Author:** ![nameless](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/779978/32.png) [@nameless](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nameless)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/23 "2009-06-13T19:46:22Z")
Nate Silver has some pre-election polling up at 538. Apparently the Iranian polling has not been as sophisticated as in the US, but I think we can get a sense of things from what’s up there. [![](http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_O6yyBo1yA_o/SjHzk6sDZAI/AAAAAAAAAA8/y2OSH2ctaSQ/s1600-h/iran4.PNG) ](http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_O6yyBo1yA_o/SjHzk6sDZAI/AAAAAAAAAA8/y2OSH2ctaSQ/s1600-h/iran4.PNG) Recent polls had Mousavi close (although they fluctuate wildly and the performance effects of minor candidates is obvious). I’m just very skeptical that Ahmadinejad was able to double Mousavi’s vote share given those polls. Maybe this is wishful thinking on my part; I (and I think most Americans) want to see Ahmadinejad out, but it makes me :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/24 "2009-06-13T20:12:25Z")
Iran is not a Democracy. They don’t have elections, but they stage them for TV. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/25 "2009-06-13T21:10:23Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > My plan has always been to bombard the country with cheap satellite dishes, \ Even better, we can lob our millions of now defunct television sets over there. Seriously, this election is sickening. It’s all but inconceivable for Ahmadinejad to have won with 63% of the vote, and taken a city like Tehran here he is very unpopular. An across the board win with similar margins of victory everywhere simply reeks of manipulation. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/26 "2009-06-13T21:24:30Z")
Agreed, its the uniformity of the totals that is most suspicious, a “one size fits all” landslide victory. Its clumsy and amateurish, Karl Rove could have advised them better. “Don’t claim a landslide, win by a squeaker, and call it a mandate. Hell, work it right, you can actually lose the popular vote but win in the Electoral _Madrassa_.” Political chicanery as performed by the Keystone Kops. That’s one of the big trouble with hyper-religious people, they figure since God knows everything, they don’t need to know anything. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/27 "2009-06-13T21:42:05Z")
[Kevin Drum](http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2009/06/vote-iran): > [@](#): > > A real vote count would have shown at least a little bit of variation during the day, not the laser-like precision of this one, which shows Ahmadinejad winning almost exactly two-thirds of the vote against reformist challenger Mir Hussein Mousavi every step of the way… > > …when autocracies decide to do something like this, why do they do it so clumsily? Why not give Ahmadinejad 52.7% of the vote, which would be at least within the realm of reason? Or force a runoff and let Ahmadinejad win a week from now? Why perpetrate such an obvious fraud? > > Hard to say. Maybe it’s just too hard to orchestrate something more believable. Maybe, against all evidence, they believe that smashing victories are always more convincing than close ones. Maybe it’s just rank panic and stupidity. It’s a mystery — and a counterproductive one, too: there isn’t a person on the planet who thinks that Ahmadinejad could have won two-thirds of the vote with a turnout of 85%, and the possibility of inciting an internal revolt is a lot higher with a barefaced fraud like this than it would be with something a little more subtle. > > On the other hand, maybe we’re looking at this through the wrong lens. Obviously something about Mousavi started to badly spook the powers-that-be during the past week, and maybe they decided something needed to be done about it. Maybe they wanted to provoke a round of violence from Mousavi’s supporters as an excuse to lead a crackdown on dissidents. And what better way to do that than to make the election rigging so obvious even a child could see it? ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/28 "2009-06-13T22:08:40Z")
> [@Plan\_B](#): > > My belief is that we should act aggressively to help the people of Iran to overthrow the current regime. You and what army? The US one is currently overstretched at the moment. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/29 "2009-06-13T23:02:55Z")
[http://attackerman.firedoglake.com/2009/06/13/iran-dont-lead-dont-follow-and-instead-get-out-of-the-way/](http://attackerman.firedoglake.com/2009/06/13/iran-dont-lead-dont-follow-and-instead-get-out-of-the-way/) "Iran: Don’t Lead, Don’t Follow, And Instead Get Out Of The Way " Submitted with cautious approval. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/30 "2009-06-13T23:26:50Z")
This is something that affects the Iranian people almost exclusively. Foreign policy is set by the clerics, who wield the real power in Iran. For all his bluster, Ahmedinejad (I’m sure I spelled that wrong) is no real threat to anyone outside that country. This is an internal issue for them, and we should keep our noses out of it just like we do in China, Saudi Arabia, etc. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/31 "2009-06-13T23:31:59Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > This is something that affects the Iranian people almost exclusively. Foreign policy is set by the clerics, who wield the real power in Iran. For all his bluster, Ahmedinejad (I’m sure I spelled that wrong) is no real threat to anyone outside that country. This is an internal issue for them, and we should keep our noses out of it just like we do in China, Saudi Arabia, etc. Agreed. It could be a catalyst for election reform in the next generation. ---
**Author:** ![ParentalAdvisory](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/53a042/32.png) [@ParentalAdvisory](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParentalAdvisory)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/32 "2009-06-13T23:38:09Z")
I think before America can talk about the fraudulent elections in other countries, we should probably straighten out our fradulent ones. Even if we’re not all that fraudulent, at least get it to the point of some kind of accuracy with a minscule .00000x% percent of error, instead of what we had to deal with for the Al Frankin issue and Bush/Gore issue. ---
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/33 "2009-06-13T23:39:33Z")
Strictly speaking, the results of the election are fixed before the election ever occurs. The mullahs of the Council of Guardians have to approve of the candidates before they can even run. Oh, there might be a candidate that is more liberal in his policies here and there, but the mullahs put the kibosh on anybody that doesn’t toe their line. In reality, then, they’re simply choosing one stooge over another, which is why the results are in my opinion not worth getting worked up over. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/34 "2009-06-13T23:45:45Z")
> [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](#): > > Strictly speaking, the results of the election are fixed before the election ever occurs. The mullahs of the Council of Guardians have to approve of the candidates before they can even run. Oh, there might be a candidate that is more liberal in his policies here and there, but the mullahs put the kibosh on anybody that doesn’t toe their line. In reality, then, they’re simply choosing one stooge over another, which is why the results are in my opinion not worth getting worked up over. Well they are pieces on the chessboard. Their President is like a mask that they put up to exhibit their willingness to follow certain lines of thinking. If they picked Ahmedinejad then that shows that they want their mad dog out in front. It’s not something to get worked up over, if you care about it as a Democratic process, being that it’s not Democratic in any way, but it does tell us a lot about Iran’s policy posture. ---
**Author:** ![nameless](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/779978/32.png) [@nameless](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nameless)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/35 "2009-06-14T00:00:41Z")
By the way– Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did [offer](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/nov/27/usa.iran) to monitor American elections. One can speculate as to whether he really meant it, but I think I need not ask **Plan B** whether he thinks Ahmadinejad’s presence would have been at all helpful. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/36 "2009-06-14T00:08:11Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > Agreed. It could be a catalyst for election reform in the next generation. Or the young people could give up on the whole thing since they now see it’s a complete joke. Reformist candidates have boycotted the elections in the past for that reason. Although the “stooge” comment puts it a little too strongly, why would the ‘next generation’ bother when the mullahs hold the real power, pick the candidates and then rig the vote if they want? Looks like this one was a fake. Which is funny because I got the distinct impression the mullahs don’t like Ahmadinejad much either. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/37 "2009-06-14T00:17:00Z")
Having watched a few talking heads, the consensus seems to be that the clerics are somewhat divided, with a small majority backing Ahmadinejad. I also agree that the most likely outcome will be apathy next time around, or if there is some real unrest we’ll see a Chinese style crackdown. These guys aren’t going to give up power easily. ---
**Author:** ![Linty\_Fresh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c5a1d2/32.png) [@Linty\_Fresh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Linty_Fresh)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/38 "2009-06-14T00:54:45Z")
> [@Plan\_B](#): > > My belief is that we should act aggressively to help the people of Iran to overthrow the current regime. Could we discuss this? Also if anyone believes the elections were clean I’d like to hear that point of view. I hate Iran as much as any frothy freeper, but I’ve had just about enough of the U.S. acting aggressively to do awful things to Middle Easterners in the name of democracy. Maybe it’s because of the clusterfuck in Iraq, maybe it’s because [this sort of thing didn’t work out the last time we tried it](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution), or maybe it’s simply because four years in the army taught me a healthy hatred of people who try to do things to other people “for their own good.” It’s not so much that I’m \*totally \*opposed to nation-building; Post-WWII Japan and Post-Korean War ROK are two excellent examples of raising countries from the ashes of their own bad governments. It’s just that at some point between then and the present, we’ve forgotten the how’s and why’s. We _suck_ at it now. We’ve lost a lot of our credibility thanks to Iraq, not to mention a helluva lot of good men and women. And you want to do the same damned thing in Iran? No thanks. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/39 "2009-06-14T02:57:46Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > …funny because I got the distinct impression the mullahs don’t like Ahmadinejad much either. Khamenei & Mousavi are old rivals, apparently. So it’s not about keeping Imadinnerjacket, it’s about the supreme leader shutting out a rival from his own generation. Also, I think they may be intentionally committing obvious fraud to provoke an uprising & then crack down. The regime can win & they know it. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/40 "2009-06-14T03:45:24Z")
We’ll see. And back to the OP: the idea that the U.S. can do anything about this is absurd. What’s happening is unfortunate but the U.S. has no leverage on Iran, has little spare military power and it’s help is clearly not wanted at all. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671.md?page=3)