# Fraudulent Elections in Iran **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 13, 2009, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671 "2009-06-13T16:22:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Plan\_B](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Plan\_B](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plan_B)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/41 "2009-06-14T04:27:11Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > We’ll see. And back to the OP: the idea that the U.S. can do anything about this is absurd. What’s happening is unfortunate but the U.S. has no leverage on Iran, has little spare military power and it’s help is clearly not wanted at all. No what’s absurd is your inability to think in any terms other than military solutions. If you had taken the time to read even post #2 you would have seen that there are other ways to go. And I endorsed that educational approach as soon as I read the post. Also, in case you had never heard of diplomatic sanctions before today, I at least mentioned that possibility in a later post. As I said, I’m not expert enough in how diplomacy or sanctions or education work to argue tactics, but they definitely work at least some of the time and can be done aggressively. ---
**Author:** ![Plan\_B](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Plan\_B](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plan_B)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/42 "2009-06-14T04:28:48Z")
For continuous updates: [http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/2009/06/iran-on-fire.php](http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/2009/06/iran-on-fire.php) ---
**Author:** ![AdmiralCrunch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6f9a4e/32.png) [@AdmiralCrunch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AdmiralCrunch)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/43 "2009-06-14T04:41:32Z")
> [@Linty\_Fresh](#): > > It’s not so much that I’m \*totally \*opposed to nation-building; Post-WWII Japan and Post-Korean War ROK are two excellent examples of raising countries from the ashes of their own bad governments. It’s just that at some point between then and the present, we’ve forgotten the how’s and why’s. We _suck_ at it now. We’ve lost a lot of our credibility thanks to Iraq, not to mention a helluva lot of good men and women. And you want to do the same damned thing in Iran? No thanks. We haven’t forgotten anything. If Iraq had attacked us, we’d have sent a force over capable of occupying and rebuilding the country. Instead, we tried to do it on the cheap because it wasn’t worth sacrificing too much to vent a little frustration. As for Iran, stay the hell out of it. It could have been a welcome nudge in the reform direction, but it was largely symbolic. If we do anything big, we’d discredit the reformists, and at best end up with a powerless President. Better to let it shake out on its own. ---
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/44 "2009-06-14T05:19:46Z")
> [@Plan\_B](#): > > No what’s absurd is your inability to think in any terms other than military solutions. If you had taken the time to read even post #2 you would have seen that there are other ways to go. And I endorsed that educational approach as soon as I read the post. > > Also, in case you had never heard of diplomatic sanctions before today, I at least mentioned that possibility in a later post. As I said, I’m not expert enough in how diplomacy or sanctions or education work to argue tactics, but they definitely work at least some of the time and can be done aggressively. You are aware that we have not had diplomatic relations with Iran since 1979, are you not? What could we possibly do to Iran that we are not already doing on the diplomatic front? Ignore them more? Tell an intermediary that if they don’t stop we’ll talk to them less? Yes, the above was quite facetious. Nevertheless, it highlights the reality of the situation: we have zero diplomatic clout with Iran. Your suggestions, while well-intentioned, have been applied for 30 years and have failed miserably. Not that the military option should even be considered, mind you. The best thing to do, for better or worse, is to let them go about their business. They’ll either conform, continue to resist, or implode, and there is nothing that we can do to influence that. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/45 "2009-06-14T05:51:18Z")
BBC TV is reporting the peasants are revolting. Satellite dishes are being confiscated in a bid to prevent foreign news from getting in. Seven opposition leaders have been arrested, including Mousavi and others who could just as hardly be accused of being Western spies. Street protests seem to be gaining momentum, so this may be an interesting week for Iran. Apparently, many people inside the government and clergy oppose Ahadinejad, too. I wonder if Ahmadinejad could have gotten away with this better if he had not made it look like such a landslide. The Mousavi arrest is mentioned [here](http://www.nowpublic.com/world/hossein-mousavi-arrested-iran-unconfirmed-reports), too. EDIT: Just found the mention of Mousavi’s arrest in post #16. BBC is saying it now too, though. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/46 "2009-06-14T11:17:14Z")
[Analysis](http://garysick.tumblr.com/post/123070238/irans-political-coup) > [@](#): > > All of this had the appearance of a well orchestrated strike intended to take its opponents by surprise – the classic definition of a coup. Curiously, this was not a coup of an outside group against the ruling elite; it was a coup of the ruling elite against its own people. > > It is still too early for anything like a comprehensive analysis of implications, but here are some initial thoughts: > > 1. The willingness of the regime simply to ignore reality and fabricate election results without the slightest effort to conceal the fraud represents a historic shift in Iran’s Islamic revolution. All previous leaders at least paid lip service to the voice of the Iranian people. This suggests that Iran’s leaders are aware of the fact that they have lost credibility in the eyes of many (most?) of their countrymen, so they are dispensing with even the pretense of popular legitimacy in favor of raw power. > > 2. The Iranian opposition, which includes some very powerful individuals and institutions, has an agonizing decision to make. If they are intimidated and silenced by the show of force (as they have been in the past), they will lose all credibility in the future with even their most devoted followers. But if they choose to confront their ruthless colleagues forcefully, not only is it likely to be messy but it could risk running out of control and potentially bring down the entire existing power structure, of which they are participants and beneficiaries. > > 3. With regard to the United States and the West, nothing would prevent them in principle from dealing with an illegitimate authoritarian government. We do it every day, and have done so for years (the Soviet Union comes to mind). But this election is an extraordinary gift to those who have been most skeptical about President Obama’s plan to conduct negotiations with Iran. Former Bush official Elliott Abrams was quick off the mark, commenting that it is “likely that the engagement strategy has been dealt a very heavy blow.” Two senior Israeli officials quickly urged the world not to engage in negotiations with Iran. Neoconservatives who had already expressed their support for an Ahmadinejad victory now have every reason to be satisfied. Opposition forces, previously on the defensive, now have a perfect opportunity to mount a political attack that will make it even more difficult for President Obama to proceed with his plan. > In their own paranoia and hunger for power, the leaders of Iran have insulted their own fellow revolutionaries who have come to have second thoughts about absolute rule and the costs of repression, and they may have alienated an entire generation of future Iranian leaders. At the same time, they have provided an invaluable gift to their worst enemies abroad. > > However this turns out, it is a historic turning point in the 30-year history of Iran’s Islamic revolution. Iranians have never forgotten the external political intervention that thwarted their democratic aspirations in 1953. How will they remember this day? ---
**Author:** ![ivan\_astikov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/58f4c7/32.png) [@ivan\_astikov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivan_astikov)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/47 "2009-06-14T11:44:28Z")
> [@Peter\_Morris](#): > > Sure, another war is just what we need. When you say “we” I take it that you will volunteer for the front line then? Or by “we” do you mean other people than you? No, he probably means those people who voluntarily join the armed forces in the most well-defended nations in the world. What else are they supposed to be doing that is as pressing? We are as good as done in Iraq, we still have a bit to do in Afghanistan, but I’m sure the resources are there if the backing can be found. ---
**Author:** ![sailor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a587f6/32.png) [@sailor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sailor)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/48 "2009-06-14T14:41:10Z")
> [@ivan\_astikov](#): > > We are as good as done in Iraq, Yep, pretty much destroyed the country and now leave it in a state of civil war. An achievement to be proud of and which should be repeated in more countries in that region. > [@ivan\_astikov](#): > > we still have a bit to do in Afghanistan, Afghanistan is getting worse, not better, and it will never be what America wants it to be. There is no military solution. > [@ivan\_astikov](#): > > but I’m sure the resources are there if the backing can be found. The backing cannot be found so the rest is moot. ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/49 "2009-06-14T15:38:37Z")
> [@sailor](#): > > Yep, pretty much destroyed the country and now leave it in a state of civil war. An achievement to be proud of and which should be repeated in more countries in that region. > Afghanistan is getting worse, not better, and it will never be what America wants it to be. There is no military solution. > The backing cannot be found so the rest is moot. wooosh. ---
**Author:** ![flickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7bcc69/32.png) [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/50 "2009-06-14T15:43:59Z")
What I find most surpizing is the number of dopers that actually believed fair and open elections would actually take place under the current Iranian leadership. I guess P T Barnum was right after all. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/51 "2009-06-14T15:54:41Z")
> [@flickster](#): > > What I find most surpizing is the number of dopers that actually believed fair and open elections would actually take place under the current Iranian leadership. > > I guess P T Barnum was right after all. As has been pointed out, this isn’t normal for Iran. ---
**Author:** ![flickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7bcc69/32.png) [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/52 "2009-06-14T16:52:14Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > As has been pointed out, this isn’t normal for Iran. How many free & open elections, where there has been a viable challenger, have taken place under the current leadership? ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/53 "2009-06-14T16:54:39Z")
> [@flickster](#): > > What I find most surpizing is the number of dopers that actually believed fair and open elections would actually take place under the current Iranian leadership. As I said in the other thread, given that candidates do have to be approved by the religious authorities, Iran has had fair vote counting in the actual elections. Even for Iran, current events are beyond customary. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/54 "2009-06-14T17:08:31Z")
I’m pretty sure that the US can accomplish absolutely nothing positive in Iran with respect to democratic reform, having no credibility whatsoever on matters democratic there (see: Mossedegh, Mohammed). Americans might be unaware of that bit of history, but Iranians assuredly aren’t. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/55 "2009-06-14T17:25:03Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > As I said in the other thread, given that candidates do have to be approved by the religious authorities, Iran has had fair vote counting in the actual elections. Even for Iran, current events are beyond customary. Which is what I don’t understand about the current situation. Iran doesn’t need to secretly rig elections, they openly rig them by tossing unacceptable candidates beforehand. They’re hardly shy about using this power, several candidates were tossed from the current race prior to the election. And the Presidency is, while not totally toothless, pretty weak compared to the religious authorities. They let reformist President Khatami win several elections prior to Ahmadinajad, and then simply used their power to keep him from doing anything they didn’t like. Honestly, I suspect that initial polls showing Mousavi in the lead were simply wrong, and that the election wasn’t rigged. The people with the power to do the rigging simply have nothing to gain accept a headache by doing so. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/56 "2009-06-14T17:25:44Z")
Of course the United States should not directly intervene militarily. No one is suggesting such a thing. But there are plenty of ways to help a nacent revolt that don’t involve the military. For example, you can help by keeping communication lines open. The CIA can smuggle money in to dissident factions. It can provide satellite phones to key leaders, or provide encrypted internet connections via satellite modems so various groups can stay in contact. It can provide intelligence to leaders to help them avoid capture or to pinpoint key infrastructure. It can help with propaganda, much like the Voice of America did during the cold war. I’m sure many or all of these things are already being done. But the best way the U.S. could help would be to send strong signals to the Iranian people that it is ready to enter normal relations and help with immediate financial and humanitarian aid should the current regime be replaced by one with a commitment to human rights and peace. And should a revolution take place and a new provisional government rise, the U.S. should be ready to respond to calls for military aid should the old forces attempt to re-assert control through violence. That doesn’t mean a U.S. invasion or even a single American boot on the ground, but offers to do surgical strikes against Revolutionary Guard formations or using air power to close down routes out of military bases and such. But this kind of intervention would be an absolute last-resort measure. Primarily the U.S. can help by sending friendly signals to the Iranian people and offers to reach out to any new leadership and to immediately help the financial situation of the country should the government fall. And this has to be done very carefully, because the odds are that any uprising will fail, and the U.S. still has to deal with the mullahs after the fact. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/57 "2009-06-14T17:29:00Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > Which is what I don’t understand about the current situation. Iran doesn’t need to secretly rig elections, they openly rig them by tossing unacceptable candidates beforehand. They’re hardly shy about using this power, several candidates were tossed from the current race prior to the election. And the Presidency is, while not totally toothless, pretty weak compared to the religious authorities. They let reformist President Khatami win several elections prior to Ahmadinajad, and then simply used their power to keep him from doing anything they didn’t like. > > Honestly, I suspect that initial polls showing Mousavi in the lead were simply wrong, and that the election wasn’t rigged. The people with the power to do the rigging simply have nothing to gain accept a headache by doing so. Or the regime may have miscalculated. They want to appear to offer choice without really offering it. Perhaps they had their own internal polling which said that Ahmadinajad would win against the candidates they allowed to run against him, and then things turned out differently and they had to change course. ---
**Author:** ![Early\_Out](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Early\_Out](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Early_Out)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/58 "2009-06-14T17:37:54Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > Honestly, I suspect that initial polls showing Mousavi in the lead were simply wrong, and that the election wasn’t rigged. If it were only a matter of the outcome not matching the polls, I’d be inclined to agree. But the vote rigging was apparently done very, very clumsily. The Juan Cole articled linked in the [post above](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11240922&postcount=19) is fairly persuasive. ---
**Author:** ![Bookkeeper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bookkeeper/32/281_2.png) [@Bookkeeper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bookkeeper)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/59 "2009-06-14T17:50:37Z")
Iranians seemed to be well able to take care of their own regime change the last time the majority were vastly dissatisfied with the reigning government. If and when they are truly unhappy with the current state of affairs, I suspect they are still perfectly capable of taking care of it themselves. Any interference by other countries, especially the US, simply gives the authorities an easy way to blacken the moral authority of the opposition by shouting “CIA puppets!”. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/60 "2009-06-14T17:54:41Z")
They will anyway. I would prefer that they do so groundlessly. But the fact is, largely due George and Rummy’s Excellent Adventure, our reputation is shit. Actually, shit is preferred by about 5% in nationwide polling. But at least this time it would be a lie. Cold comfort farm. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671.md?page=4)