# Fraudulent Elections in Iran **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 13, 2009, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671 "2009-06-13T16:22:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/61 "2009-06-14T18:03:11Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Or the young people could give up on the whole thing since they now see it’s a complete joke. Reformist candidates have boycotted the elections in the past for that reason. Although the “stooge” comment puts it a little too strongly, why would the ‘next generation’ bother when the mullahs hold the real power, pick the candidates and then rig the vote if they want? Looks like this one was a fake. Which is funny because I got the distinct impression the mullahs don’t like Ahmadinejad much either. You’re touching on a fallacy that very few people recognize. The idea that the youth ever give up seeking power. It’s just a truism that the youth always gain power in the end. The gestalt that a generation creates will always find itself in full bloom unless they are wiped out, in which case that culture has no opportunity to proliferate at all. Ayatollah Khameini is not immortal, he is old, and he will die one day. Eventually his replacement will not remember the revolution as a participant. As these shifts happen change occurs. If a large amount of the youth continues on trends toward liberalization, which we see rampant in the cosmopolitan culture of Tehran, then if not them, then their kids will eventually liberalize, not by some sort of revolutionary overthrow, but through the inertia of culture. The other fallacy you are tending toward is a belief that because Democracy is a sham right now that they will believe that Democracy is ALWAYS a sham. Just because they are not allowed free and fair elections today doesn’t mean they will simply give up for a dream of holding actual elections. At a certain point the Mullahs only have so much control over the populace, and to maintain control eventually they have to give concessions lest they find themselves without support amongst anyone but a geriatric based with some influence over some young extremists. From what I read about Iran, I don’t see people giving up at all. I see them changing tactics from trying to participate in the election to boycotting it, but on the streets of Tehran the culture is changing and the Mullahs do not seem to have the power to stop that. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/62 "2009-06-14T18:20:03Z")
> [@sailor](#): > > Yep, pretty much destroyed the country and now leave it in a state of civil war. An achievement to be proud of and which should be repeated in more countries in that region. It’s amazing that you guys don’t even realize that this statement is basically counter-factual. It is looking quite likely that Iraq was a stunning success. Nation-Building takes a whole generation, not 6 years. > [@](#): > > Afghanistan is getting worse, not better, and it will never be what America wants it to be. There is no military solution. You’re dogma corresponds to reality on this one. > [@](#): > > The backing cannot be found so the rest is moot. It’s unecessary. The people of Iran will become Democratic on their own and stand that much taller and prouder because of it. I look forward to a Democratic Iran and Iraq being the supporting pillars for a more Liberal middle-east. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/63 "2009-06-14T18:22:14Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Of course the United States should not directly intervene militarily. No one is suggesting such a thing. > > But there are plenty of ways to help a nacent revolt that don’t involve the military. For example, you can help by keeping communication lines open. The CIA can smuggle money in to dissident factions. It can provide satellite phones to key leaders, or provide encrypted internet connections via satellite modems so various groups can stay in contact. It can provide intelligence to leaders to help them avoid capture or to pinpoint key infrastructure. It can help with propaganda, much like the Voice of America did during the cold war. I’m sure many or all of these things are already being done. > > But the best way the U.S. could help would be to send strong signals to the Iranian people that it is ready to enter normal relations and help with immediate financial and humanitarian aid should the current regime be replaced by one with a commitment to human rights and peace. > > And should a revolution take place and a new provisional government rise, the U.S. should be ready to respond to calls for military aid should the old forces attempt to re-assert control through violence. That doesn’t mean a U.S. invasion or even a single American boot on the ground, but offers to do surgical strikes against Revolutionary Guard formations or using air power to close down routes out of military bases and such. But this kind of intervention would be an absolute last-resort measure. > > Primarily the U.S. can help by sending friendly signals to the Iranian people and offers to reach out to any new leadership and to immediately help the financial situation of the country should the government fall. And this has to be done very carefully, because the odds are that any uprising will fail, and the U.S. still has to deal with the mullahs after the fact. And the new government’s legitimacy domestically will fall under suspicion because they will be seen as an American stooge. ---
**Author:** ![Dallas\_Jones](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dallas_jones/32/3277_2.png) [@Dallas\_Jones](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dallas_Jones)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/64 "2009-06-14T18:25:29Z")
> [@Bookkeeper](#): > > Iranians seemed to be well able to take care of their own regime change the last time the majority were vastly dissatisfied with the reigning government. If and when they are truly unhappy with the current state of affairs, I suspect they are still perfectly capable of taking care of it themselves. > > Any interference by other countries, especially the US, simply gives the authorities an easy way to blacken the moral authority of the opposition by shouting “CIA puppets!”. You are correct. Anybody remember the Shah of Iran? The CIA propping him up is largely the reason we have not had diplomatic relations with Iran for so long. Any new interference from the US in the internal affairs of Iran is a very bad idea. The revolution of the '70’s was the work of a dissatisfied younger generation, which is now the older generation in charge. A great deal of the responsibility of that revolution lies with attempts by the US to controll the government through puppet leaders. Today’s younger generation of Iranians greatly outnumber the older generation in power and if change is to come it is up to them. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/65 "2009-06-14T18:33:33Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > It’s amazing that you guys don’t even realize that this statement is basically counter-factual. It is looking quite likely that Iraq was a stunning success. Stunning success? What the fuck are you talking about? ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/66 "2009-06-14T18:44:18Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > Stunning success? What the fuck are you talking about? Iraq has a functioning government, the Iraqi military is taking over more of the functions of national security. It looks like things are going to work out for Iraq. This whole, “Iraq is on the brink of civil war.”, meme has played out. It WAS on the brink of civil war, but it’s not anymore. This stuff doesn’t happen in 6 years. Where do you think Japan and Germany were in 1951? Everything was roses in the Marshall Plan states? It had all been fixed, everything was better? Iraq is trending toward actual stability. The fact that there is still violence there and that not everything is hunky dory doesn’t signal a complete and total failure there. We won’t know whether Iraq was a success or not until about 2020 at the very least. But you all keep repeating that Iraq is a failure dogmatically as though it’s just widespread public knowledge that it’s true. You want Bush to be a failure so badly that you take it as axiomatic that his biggest misadventure was in the end a total failure. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/67 "2009-06-14T18:55:51Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > Which is what I don’t understand about the current situation. Iran doesn’t need to secretly rig elections, they openly rig them by tossing unacceptable candidates beforehand. They’re hardly shy about using this power, several candidates were tossed from the current race prior to the election. And the Presidency is, while not totally toothless, pretty weak compared to the religious authorities. They let reformist President Khatami win several elections prior to Ahmadinajad, and then simply used their power to keep him from doing anything they didn’t like. > > Honestly, I suspect that initial polls showing Mousavi in the lead were simply wrong, and that the election wasn’t rigged. The people with the power to do the rigging simply have nothing to gain accept a headache by doing so. Some of the blog postings I’ve read suggest that these election shenanigans may have less to do with Khamenei and more to do with hardliners in the Iranian military. The religious authorities appear fractured and weak. Do you honestly believe that the initial polls were actually wrong? That Ahmadinejad somehow managed to take 2/3 of the vote across the board, even in areas he wasn’t popular in? Iran’s own election monitors have come out and said something was wrong. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/68 "2009-06-14T18:57:54Z")
> [@ghardester](#): > > You are correct. Anybody remember the Shah of Iran? The CIA propping him up is largely the reason we have not had diplomatic relations with Iran for so long. Any new interference from the US in the internal affairs of Iran is a very bad idea. > > The revolution of the '70’s was the work of a dissatisfied younger generation, which is now the older generation in charge. A great deal of the responsibility of that revolution lies with attempts by the US to controll the government through puppet leaders. Today’s younger generation of Iranians greatly outnumber the older generation in power and if change is to come it is up to them. In 1953 the legally elected government of iran was overthrown by the US and Britain. Mosaddeq was overthrown and the brutal Shah regime was ensconced. For 26 years they lived under a wasteful and repressive regime. I doubt the Iranis have any use for our meddling. I don’t see why any one there would trust us. The overthrow was due to the Irani government trying to get back control of their oil from the petroleum companies. Nationalizing pissed them off. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/69 "2009-06-14T19:01:21Z")
Covert support of the dissidents is the way to go, and I assume this is already happening. However any public promise of support for the opposition would be disastrous. The best thing that can happen for us would be to have a growing percentage of young Iranians in loud opposition to the government - and then become opposed to the Islamic clergy supporting the government also. This might lead to a secular government in the long run. ---
**Author:** ![Early\_Out](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Early\_Out](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Early_Out)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/70 "2009-06-14T19:24:10Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > It is looking quite likely that Iraq was a stunning success. Several years ago, I made a prediction, and I’m still sticking by it: No matter when the U.S. finally leaves Iraq, whether it’s next week, next month, next year, or a decade from now, Iraq will experience a fairly bloody civil war within six months. The outcome will be a Shiite-dominated Islamic Republic, loosely allied with Iran. Yes, indeed, a great victory for U.S. foreign policy! The only revision I might make today is to concede the possibility that the Shiites will completely disenfranchise the Sunnis without having to shoot and/or bomb them out of the way. Same outcome, nonetheless. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/71 "2009-06-14T19:27:49Z")
> [@Early\_Out](#): > > Several years ago, I made a prediction, and I’m still sticking by it: > > No matter when the U.S. finally leaves Iraq, whether it’s next week, next month, next year, or a decade from now, Iraq will experience a fairly bloody civil war within six months. The outcome will be a Shiite-dominated Islamic Republic, loosely allied with Iran. Yes, indeed, a great victory for U.S. foreign policy! > > The only revision I might make today is to concede the possibility that the Shiites will completely disenfranchise the Sunnis without having to shoot and/or bomb them out of the way. Same outcome, nonetheless. Yeah, I’m not convinced. The Sunni minority isn’t like some tiny minority like Black people in America, it’s something like 40% of the population. I’m also not convinced that every Shi’ite is pining for a Mullahocracy. They aren’t in Iran so why would the Shi’ites in Iraq be more likely to be total Islamists? I just don’t see it. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/72 "2009-06-14T19:33:01Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > …You want Bush to be a failure so badly that you take it as axiomatic that his biggest misadventure was in the end a total failure. Another example is how people say that George III policy for the Colonies was a failure, yet here is America, which he made possible by his prescient blundering and visionary stupidity. ---
**Author:** ![Early\_Out](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Early\_Out](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Early_Out)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/73 "2009-06-14T19:33:24Z")
Only time will tell, but I have long had the feeling that they’re mostly just waiting for us to leave, thereby removing the cork in the bottle. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/74 "2009-06-14T19:39:23Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Another example is how people say that George III policy for the Colonies was a failure, yet here is America, which he made possible by his prescient blundering and visionary stupidity. _shrugs_ I don’t know whether you have read my posts over the past several months or not, but I don’t think that every political opinion needs to be a referendum on George W. Bush. Yes, his blundering was idiotic, but that doesn’t mean it will be a failure. Arguing because/despite might serve a partisan gestalt but at the end of the day it misleads us from reality. If it is successful it will be partly because of Bush and partly despite him. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/75 "2009-06-14T20:02:53Z")
Read **elucidator** ’s post again: he’s talking about King George the Third, the English monarch who lost the Revolutionary War. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/76 "2009-06-14T20:08:43Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > Read **elucidator** ’s post again: he’s talking about King George the Third, the English monarch who lost the Revolutionary War. You’d think that, but he wasn’t actually. Subtext my boy, subtext. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/77 "2009-06-14T20:18:18Z")
Please submit your Certificate of Telepathy for examination. Thank you. (And “my boy” is appropriately respectful and affectionate, but the Eddy, Teddy, and Freddy refered to prefer “Mom”.) ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/78 "2009-06-14T20:32:52Z")
My two cents, the Iranians will protest for about a week, then everything will return to a sense of normality, the only changes will be the average Iranian will just be even more apathetic about life in Iran. I see alcholism, drug use and rampant corruption and societal decay in the cities to continue a much faster pace, much like Russia during the closing years of the Soviet Union. No revolution is gonna happen, but the cynicism of the government and it’s actions will permeat through out Irans society, so Iran’s government might of staved off reformists for now, but has probably hastened it’s collapse sooner rather than later. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/79 "2009-06-14T20:49:47Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > Yeah, I’m not convinced. The Sunni minority isn’t like some tiny minority like Black people in America, it’s something like 40% of the population. Over half the Sunnis are Kurds, who may have an interest in throwing their own wrench in the works. (And, something about using the word “success” to describe the result of a “misadventure” grates on me. Can’t quite say why.) ---
**Author:** ![sailor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a587f6/32.png) [@sailor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sailor)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2009, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/80 "2009-06-14T20:52:41Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > My two cents, the Iranians will protest for about a week, then everything will return to a sense of normality, the only changes will be the average Iranian will just be even more apathetic about life in Iran. I see alcholism, drug use and rampant corruption and societal decay in the cities to continue a much faster pace, much like Russia during the closing years of the Soviet Union. Alcoholism and drug abuse are serious problems in Iran and this is caused by lack of democracy? The things I learn everyday. I never cease to be amazed. But I suppose it follows logically when you stop to think that democratic countries have almost not alcohol or drug abuse. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671.md?page=5)