# Fraudulent Elections in Iran **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 13, 2009, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671 "2009-06-13T16:22:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![kidchameleon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/898d66/32.png) [@kidchameleon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kidchameleon)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2009, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/121 "2009-06-15T19:38:55Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Alcohol is banned in Iran. it would be tough for it to become a problem. So is homosexuality. Yet Ahmadinejad looks pretty faggy to me… ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2009, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/122 "2009-06-15T19:50:14Z")
> [@kidchameleon](#): > > So is homosexuality. Yet Ahmadinejad looks pretty faggy to me… 😃 ---
**Author:** ![buttonjockey308](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bcef8e/32.png) [@buttonjockey308](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buttonjockey308)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2009, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/123 "2009-06-15T19:53:13Z")
I’m just wondering how the fellas from Cook County ended up running the Iranian elections. Seriously though? I think this is Iran’s problem to solve, but I hope that Obama’s mind gets real clear real quick about the possiblity of a nuclear Iran. If this isn’t a harbinger of real bad things, I don’t know what is. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2009, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/124 "2009-06-15T20:22:29Z")
> [@kidchameleon](#): > > So is homosexuality. Yet Ahmadinejad looks pretty faggy to me… You kidding? You see how he dresses? Hell, I didn’t even know they _had_ Salvation Army stores in Iran! ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2009, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/125 "2009-06-15T20:46:03Z")
> [@buttonjockey308](#): > > Seriously though? I think this is Iran’s problem to solve, but I hope that Obama’s mind gets real clear real quick about the possiblity of a nuclear Iran. If this isn’t a harbinger of real bad things, I don’t know what is. Practically nobody is happy about the nuclear power issue, just like practically nobody is happy about the election. The question is, what can anybody do about it? Tumbleweeds. The answer appears to be ‘not much.’ All the Iranian candidates were in favor of continuing nuclear development, from what I read, so even if Moussavi were elected cleanly, they’d still be working on that. If there was a site to bomb, Israel probaby would have done it. I guess Russia and China are doing business with Iran, so maybe if they were opposed to the program, they would have the ability to do something - but I don’t think they are. ---
**Author:** ![sailor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a587f6/32.png) [@sailor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sailor)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2009, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/126 "2009-06-15T21:20:43Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > Calling Iraq a failed state tells me something, but it doesn’t answer it. Iraq is not being “called” a failed state, it"\*is[/] a failed state with all that implies. Did you read the 12 criteria? A critical issue for a succesful government is to be independent from outside forces and to have the monopoly of the use of force internally, neither of which is true in Iraq. Look just read the criteria. > [@mswas](#): > > No one has even addressed my comments regarding the status of Germany and Japan in 1951. You cannot be serious. If you are serious this shows some serious historical ignorance. Or you are just playing dumb and being disingenous. In 1951 Germany and Japan were totally peaceful and safe for natives and foreigners. To compare that to Iraq today is just preposterous. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/127 "2009-06-16T02:29:03Z")
BBC TV is reporting hundreds of thousands out in the streets of Tehran and possibly into the millions, or at least A million. The reporter is saying he’s beginning to hear the word “revolution” bandied about. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/128 "2009-06-16T04:01:35Z")
So what are the possibilities of how this may play out, how possible are each of them, and what would be the ramifications? Ahmadinejad’s forces could put this down with brutal force. Moussavi could be killed. The religious council could make a good enough show of an investigation that it mollifies the crowds. Or it otherwise just peters out. The religious council could rule that there is enough doubt about the procedures that a run-off election will be held. That one is rigged less sloppily and Ahmadinejad still wins under a cloud but less dark of one. The religious council could do whatever the Iranian equivalent is of throwing Ahmadinejad under the bus and then just give Moussavi the orders instead. The religious council (The Assembly of Experts, I guess) throws out Ayatollah Khamenei and puts in someone who declares the election null and void and a new election is held. [Time](http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1904729,00.html?cnn=yes) explores that possibility and points out the importance of Ayotallah Rafsanjani in these maneuverings. Revolution overthrowing the Ahmadinejad but leaving the council in place. Revolution that kicks out the council as well replacing it with a religious body that has less power. Any other choices? Any one willing to handicap it? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/129 "2009-06-16T04:18:43Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Less filling! Foamy! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/130 "2009-06-16T04:35:42Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > So what are the possibilities of how this may play out, how possible are each of them, and what would be the ramifications? > > Ahmadinejad’s forces could put this down with brutal force. > > Moussavi could be killed. > > The religious council could make a good enough show of an investigation that it mollifies the crowds. Or it otherwise just peters out. > > The religious council could rule that there is enough doubt about the procedures that a run-off election will be held. That one is rigged less sloppily and Ahmadinejad still wins under a cloud but less dark of one. > > The religious council could do whatever the Iranian equivalent is of throwing Ahmadinejad under the bus and then just give Moussavi the orders instead. > > The religious council (The Assembly of Experts, I guess) throws out Ayatollah Khamenei and puts in someone who declares the election null and void and a new election is held. [Time](http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1904729,00.html?cnn=yes) explores that possibility and points out the importance of Ayotallah Rafsanjani in these maneuverings. > > Revolution overthrowing the Ahmadinejad but leaving the council in place. > > Revolution that kicks out the council as well replacing it with a religious body that has less power. > > Any other choices? Any one willing to handicap it? _sigh_ You’re missing the point\*\*(s).\*\* Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guard have **marginalized** Khamenei and the Guardians. (See post #89 and links therein.) Which means Iran has **several** divisions cross-cutting against each other: 1. At the highest level, the Guardians on one side against the Revolutionary Guards on the other. 2. At the grassroots level, the hardline religionists vs. the secular reformers. We can’t really know which has more popular support, but we can be sure each has **significant** popular support and they’re about evenly matched. Which is a formula for extremely bloody war-to-the-knife civil conflict. 3. The idea of “Iranian” (as distinct from Persian) national identity vs. Kurdish, Arab, and Balochi nationalists/secessionists – the latter being quiet at the moment, but if they sniff an opportunity we’ll be hearing a lot from them. Which is a formula for, etc. See Rwanda and Burundi. And Iraq, for that matter. 4. The Sunni-Sh’ia split – not so important in Iran as in Iraq, as Iran is 89% Shi’a, but that doesn’t make it politically insignificant, and see above. **War to the knife.** Think, really think, about that phrase. 5. And, of course, economic-social-class divisions, as everywhere else. So, as complicated as the situation is, we can’t really know what forces civil war will unleash. But we can be sure it will be anything but pretty. Iran is just as volatile as Iraq, and five times as big. It is in everybody’s best interest to keep the situation as quiet as reasonably possible. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/131 "2009-06-16T04:59:09Z")
So **BG** , playing out the hand assuming that it is indeed true that Ayatollah Khamenei has less power than most experts make out and has been fed highly filtered information - how do you see this playing out? Do you see this resulting in a prolonged bloody civil war in which various factions all knife each other into a pool of blood? Or do you see any other potential ways for this to play out? ---
**Author:** ![Lochdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/edb3f5/32.png) [@Lochdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lochdale)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/132 "2009-06-16T05:20:49Z")
> [@ParentalAdvisory](#): > > I think before America can talk about the fraudulent elections in other countries, we should probably straighten out our fradulent ones. Even if we’re not all that fraudulent, at least get it to the point of some kind of accuracy with a minscule .00000x% percent of error, instead of what we had to deal with for the Al Frankin issue and Bush/Gore issue. Quite frankly, I think this point is not only stupid but intellectually untenable. So, in essence, we must all be completely without sin before we can ever cast doubt of the validity of other countrie’s elections? Say what you will about both of the instances you quote above but massive fraud wasn’t/isn’t a factor. Moreover, it is unreasonable to think that an election with over 100M voters will be 100% perfect. Getting back to the issue at hand I’m not sure there is anything that the US can or even should do at the moment. Military intervention is just not an option, nor should it be. I think more information is needed. Of course, were Israel suddenly use this as an opportunity to take out the nuclear facilities (if such a thing is possible) then the powder keg might just explode. ---
**Author:** ![Abe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f1d935/32.png) [@Abe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Abe)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 10:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/133 "2009-06-16T10:35:24Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > I didn’t slip and fall over. He responded to a comment about Iraq becoming a viable Democracy with a comment about the ineptitude of George III. > > Words have meaning and context matters. > > I understood what he said perfectly the first time. You are probably the only one who (almost) believes that. Now please stop the chest-thumping arguments. This is a thread to discuss the Iranian elections and resulting crisis. Why don’t you restrict your ridiculous opinions about Iraq to the appropriate threads? In this one we have considerably more interesting material to chew on. ---
**Author:** ![Abe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f1d935/32.png) [@Abe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Abe)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/134 "2009-06-16T11:09:27Z")
> [@Lochdale](#): > > Getting back to the issue at hand I’m not sure there is anything that the US can or even should do at the moment. Military intervention is just not an option, nor should it be. I think more information is needed. True, at this point there is no proper understanding of what is happening. Even if there were the political will, and a compelling reason to intervene, there are not many powers capable of intervening. Not the UN, which is likely to experience deadlock on this issue for the immediate future. Not the US. Obama is playing it smart and safe - at a time when Iranians may actually need the support of the US. In fact, by calling for non-violence and patience among Iranians, Obama is positioning the US in this crisis as unequivocally non-interfering, in contrast to the last time there was a revolution in Iran. Israel might be crazy enough to try something in this chaos but they are as aware as anyone else of the potential for the tinderbox effect. EU, NATO, Russia and China are out of the question. At this point I see national leaders and organizations just trying to grasp what exactly is happening and gain an understanding, should the current regime fall, of who will possibly claim or snatch power. There is no real alternative leadership in Iran and mob-based committees are famously poor performers. Fanatical Islamists wield a lot of clout in most aspects of society and are very likely to remain a part of whatever government emerges after this crisis. This is a time for information-gathering. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/135 "2009-06-16T16:46:14Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > So **BG** , playing out the hand assuming that it is indeed true that Ayatollah Khamenei has less power than most experts make out and has been fed highly filtered information - how do you see this playing out? Do you see this resulting in a prolonged bloody civil war in which various factions all knife each other into a pool of blood? Or do you see any other potential ways for this to play out? No. The Guardians will not seriously try to challenge the Revolutionary Guard, is my guess. At the top level, it’ll all be smoothed over behind the scenes. At the grassroots level, there will be demonstrations but no revolution. I think there are a lot of Iranians who remember the revolutionary frenzy of 1979 and, even if they remember it with a certain fondness the way some Boomers remember the '60s, would rather not go through anything like that again so long as they live. At present, the Iranian people are well-fed enough and have a not completely unjustified sense of real participation in their government. Things would have to get a lot worse before they seriously considered rising up. If I were a young, secular Iranian, I would take a “Time Is On My Side” attitude. The old mullahs can’t last forever. The Revolutionary Guard can – but is comparatively tolerable. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/136 "2009-06-16T17:05:54Z")
> [@Abe](#): > > You are probably the only one who (almost) believes that. > > Now please stop the chest-thumping arguments. This is a thread to discuss the Iranian elections and resulting crisis. Why don’t you restrict your ridiculous opinions about Iraq to the appropriate threads? In this one we have considerably more interesting material to chew on. Well if people wouldn’t have taken it on a dishonest tangent I wouldn’t have had to respond. Don’t piss on my head and tell me it’s raining. But in the future here’s a good tactic. Don’t tell me to shut up and challenge me if you don’t want me to respond. In otherwords if you don’t want me to talk about it then don’t say something about the topic. Pretty simple right? Notice how the last few responses where people asked me to shut up were what I responded to? And if they hadn’t told me to shut up I wouldn’t have continued that line of discussion? Funny how that works right? So don’t try to lie to me, and I won’t call out the lies. The context was very specific, he made a comparison, and that was that. I didn’t misinterpret it at all. It’s just a cognitive bias issue where people are personally attacking me because they don’t like what I am saying. He responded directly in context. Any other conclusion is well simply…dishonest. If I am talking about a particular subject and someone directly responds to it with a tangent, don’t tell me the original subject is not part of it. So let’s go with YOU shut up. If YOU shut up, I will have nothing to respond to. _I_ am not the one who keeps carrying it in this thread, and _I_ have no reason to deal with your BBQ Pit rude bullshit here, I’m sorry if you have a problem with it, you’ll notice that _I_ am the one who started a separate thread. So _YOU_ need to take it to the other thread. Insult me to my face and try to tell me something that isn’t true is, and I will respond every time. So here’s your chance to shut up. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/137 "2009-06-16T17:07:20Z")
[http://iranelection2009.com/](http://iranelection2009.com/) ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/138 "2009-06-16T17:18:45Z")
Quite incredibly, [Pat Buchanan](http://www.librarygrape.com/2009/06/surprising-source-credits-obama.html) and I actually agree on something: > [@](#): > > U.S. fulminations will change nothing in Tehran. But they would enable the regime to divert attention to U.S. meddling in Iran’s affairs and portray the candidate robbed in this election, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, as a poodle of the Americans… > > The dilemma for America is that the theocracy defines itself and grounds its claim to leadership through its unyielding resistance to the Great Satan—the United States—and to Israel. > > Nevertheless, Obama, with his outstretched hand, his message to Iran on its national day, his admission that the United States had a hand in the 1953 coup in Tehran, his assurances that we recognize Iran’s right to nuclear power, succeeded. He stripped the Ayatollah and Ahmadinejad of their clinching argument—that America is out to destroy Iran and they are indispensable to Iran’s defense. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/139 "2009-06-16T17:20:43Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > At present, the Iranian people are well-fed enough and have a not completely unjustified sense of real participation in their government. You think they have that sense? The millions of protestors in Tehran beg to disagree. And if food weren’t a problem for a lot of people, Ahmadinejad wouldn’t have been handing out potatoes to farmers (for which he is derided as “President Potato”). > [@BrainGlutton](#): > > 1. At the grassroots level, the hardline religionists vs. the secular reformers. We can’t really know which has more popular support, but we can be sure each has significant popular support and they’re about evenly matched. Which is a formula for extremely bloody war-to-the-knife civil conflict. Why do you say they’re evenly matched? ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2009, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671/140 "2009-06-16T18:11:33Z")
> [@ArchiveGuy](#): > > Quite incredibly, [Pat Buchanan](http://www.librarygrape.com/2009/06/surprising-source-credits-obama.html) and I actually agree on something: Nice, I agree with Pat Buchanan on foreign policy issues a lot actually. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fraudulent-elections-in-iran/499671.md?page=8)