# French Presidential Election, 2017
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [March 3, 2017, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294 "2017-03-03T14:29:26Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 4
### Author:  [@Evan\_Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evan_Drake)
#### Post date: [April 30, 2017, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/61 "2017-04-30T01:00:06Z")
Judging by American newspaper commentators, who may express the views of only 25% of the population, for whom ‘socialist’ means genocidal anti-capitalist demon-worshipper, I would accept that as an articulated true belief.
However, M. Macron does not seem to have enough articulated beliefs to be a lunatic.
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### Author:  [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)
#### Post date: [May 1, 2017, 7:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/62 "2017-05-01T07:38:41Z")
> [@Great\_White\_Dope](#):
>
> Macron is considered nothing less than a full-blown lunatic by those in the know
And they are? On what evidence?
(Latest polls, btw, seem to have settled for the last few days at 60/40 in Macron’s favour, more or less what they were indicating from the outset of the campaign.
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### Author:  [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)
#### Post date: [May 1, 2017, 9:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/63 "2017-05-01T09:13:33Z")
Maybe he’s a lunatic in the Tony Blair sense - a delusional messianic complex hidden in plain sight behind lots of plausible statements. Fwiw, I can’t see it.
It’s a terrible choice though; the Blairite corporate, investment banker vs. a protectionist-nationalist. It’s not as if abstaining helps.
Is she any more _right_ than the President of the USA?
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### Author:  [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)
#### Post date: [May 1, 2017, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/64 "2017-05-01T15:58:35Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#):
>
> …Is she any more _right_ than the President of the USA?
Seems to be a mixed bag:
> **[Political positions of Marine Le Pen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Marine_Le_Pen)**
>
> Marine Le Pen is a French politician, who is the president of the National Rally (French: Rassemblement National, pronounced \[ʁasɑ̃bləmɑ̃ nɑsjɔnal\]; RN). During her political career she has expressed her positions on a wide range of political issues covering economics, immigration, social issues, and foreign policy. She has stated that as the RN's immigration policies are better known to voters, she focuses her campaigning on the party's economic and social programme.
> Described as more democrati...
> **[Marine Le Pen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_Le_Pen#Controversy)**
>
> Defunct
> Defunct
> Marion Anne Perrine "Marine" Le Pen (.mw-parser-output .IPA-label-small{font-size:85%}.mw-parser-output .references .IPA-label-small,.mw-parser-output .infobox .IPA-label-small,.mw-parser-output .navbox .IPA-label-small{font-size:100%}French: \[maʁin lə pɛn\]; born 5 August 1968) is a French lawyer and politician who ran for the French presidency in 2012, 2017, and 2022. A member of the National Rally (RN; previously the National Front, FN), she served as its president from 2011...
> **[Marine Le Pen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_Le_Pen#De-demonization_of_the_FN)**
>
> Defunct
> Defunct
> Marion Anne Perrine "Marine" Le Pen (.mw-parser-output .IPA-label-small{font-size:85%}.mw-parser-output .references .IPA-label-small,.mw-parser-output .infobox .IPA-label-small,.mw-parser-output .navbox .IPA-label-small{font-size:100%}French: \[maʁin lə pɛn\]; born 5 August 1968) is a French lawyer and politician who ran for the French presidency in 2012, 2017, and 2022. A member of the National Rally (RN; previously the National Front, FN), she served as its president from 2011...
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### Author:  [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)
#### Post date: [May 2, 2017, 6:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/65 "2017-05-02T06:43:57Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#):
>
> Is she any more _right_ than the President of the USA?
To the extent that she knows what she’s going to say before she says it, and how it fits into her strategy and tactics, rather than a bundle of ad hoc reactions and prejudices: yes.
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### Author:  [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)
#### Post date: [May 2, 2017, 11:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/66 "2017-05-02T11:01:41Z")
[The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/01/emmanuel-macron-french-voters-marine-le-pen) has an interesting article on how Macron’s first-round win was engineered and how he might yet lose to Le Pen.
> [@](#):
>
> I asked him if had there been a deliberate effort among intellectuals and mainstream politicians to engineer a run-off between Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential election. “Why, of course,” he laughed. “We’ve been at it for a year.” Considering how obvious the strategy had been, I cannot claim to have revealed much of a secret. Still, it’s nice to know I was not being paranoid.
>
> We finished our lunch, the journalist commenting on every passing woman with the old-fashioned sexism characteristic of the French ruling class, while I reflected on the astonishing irresponsibility of the strategy. It may have seemed like a good idea: pitting Macron against the Front National leader was the surest way to ensure the former’s victory. Yet the tactic could be about to backfire, with terrifying consequences.
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### Author:  [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)
#### Post date: [May 2, 2017, 11:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/67 "2017-05-02T11:20:54Z")
Right, they’ve been at it before the thunderstike of Brexit and Trump, they just knew.
Bullshit.
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### Author:  [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)
#### Post date: [May 2, 2017, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/68 "2017-05-02T19:28:33Z")
> [@](#):
>
> I asked him if had there been a deliberate effort among intellectuals and mainstream politicians to engineer a run-off between Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential election. “Why, of course,” he laughed. “We’ve been at it for a year.” Considering how obvious the strategy had been, I cannot claim to have revealed much of a secret. Still, it’s nice to know I was not being paranoid.
Just out of interest, how exactly does some conspiracy of intellectuals and mainstream politicians “engineer” a President’s inability to persuade anyone to support his re-election, and both major parties’ inability to come up with an appealing alternative in their primaries? Recognising, even a year or more ago, that Macron might have more personal appeal than any of the likely alternatives other than Le Pen, especially if not tied to any of the existing political vehicles, doesn’t seem more than the bleedin’ obvious: as indeed was the possibility that, without someone like him, Le Pen might actually walk it anyway?
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### Author:  [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)
#### Post date: [May 2, 2017, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/69 "2017-05-02T20:07:21Z")
You’ll have to ask the author.
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### Author:  [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)
#### Post date: [May 2, 2017, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/70 "2017-05-02T21:50:29Z")
Fwiw, the piece you link to from The Guardian is an opinion. The writer is a lecturer n modern languages.
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### Author:  [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)
#### Post date: [May 2, 2017, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/71 "2017-05-02T21:54:59Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#):
>
> Fwiw, the piece you link to from The Guardian is an opinion. The writer is a lecturer n modern languages.
And your point is? I found it interesting; I thought - actually, I still do think - Dopers might too. I don’t know enough to agree or disagree.
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### Author:  [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)
#### Post date: [May 2, 2017, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/72 "2017-05-02T22:08:13Z")
My point is there is a distinction in digital media between what you called an “article” by The Guardian, and daily ‘talking points’ provided by random contributors under the umbrella of Opinion.
One has the weight of the publisher behind it, the other benefits from a provided platform.
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### Author:  [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)
#### Post date: [May 2, 2017, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/73 "2017-05-02T22:13:39Z")
As for LePen reaching for Brexit and the US election for comfort, the reality was that on Brexit the polls were too close, and in the American one also, but the polls got the popular vote more or less, the biggest error was with the state polls.
Le Pen does not have the closeness of Brexit nor an electoral vote escape hatch like Trump had.
> **[French election polls: LATEST updates and poll tracker](https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/799314/French-election-polls-LATEST-updates-poll-tracker-Marine-Le-Pen-Emmanuel-Macron)**
>
> MARINE Le Pen hopes to prove the polls wrong by storming to victory in the French election despite falling even further behind her rival Emmanuel Macron. Here are the latest opinion polls, updates and graphs.
> [@](#):
>
> Even with the boost in the polls, Marine Le Pen is still as many as 20 points behind her rival Emmanuel Marcon in the run up to the second round on Sunday.
>
> The latest survey from pollster Harris Interactive found that support for Mr Macron is now at 61 per cent, well above the 39 per cent for Ms Le Pen.
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### Author:  [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)
#### Post date: [May 2, 2017, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/74 "2017-05-02T22:19:18Z")
The entire media is against Le Pen. I doubt you can trust the polls either.
Lots can happen; as HRC knows there’s a decent space between saying you favor a candidate and getting them into a voting booth. Le Pen won’t have trouble getting her vote out. Will the pro-EU, pro-globalisation former Rothschild’s banker …
I suspect things are more interesting than they are portrayed.
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### Author:  [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)
#### Post date: [May 3, 2017, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/75 "2017-05-03T00:23:38Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#):
>
> The entire media is against Le Pen. I doubt you can trust the polls either.
>
> Lots can happen; as HRC knows there’s a decent space between saying you favor a candidate and getting them into a voting booth. Le Pen won’t have trouble getting her vote out. Will the pro-EU, pro-globalisation former Rothschild’s banker …
>
> I suspect things are more interesting than they are portrayed.
Entirely possible, BUT…
Even the pollsters who predicted Hillary would win thought the race would be close. (And, as liberals like to remind us, she DID win the popular vote.)
And even the pollsters who predicted Brexit would fail said the vote would be close.
In a close race, a small shift can change things. If polls said Marine LePen was trailing by 3%, she’d be very confident and rightly so. But even the worst pollsters are never off by 21%- and that’s how much she trails by, with just 5 days to go.
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### Author:  [@Great\_White\_Dope](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_White_Dope)
#### Post date: [May 3, 2017, 6:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/76 "2017-05-03T06:54:07Z")
From the rumblings I’m hearing, this is shaping up to be a Le Pen blow out victory.
It’s safe to say the clock has struck 11:59 on the E.U. and the globalists’ dream of worldwide power and control.
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### Author:  [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)
#### Post date: [May 3, 2017, 7:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/77 "2017-05-03T07:03:16Z")
Fwiw, I do think we will see unusual levels of conscientious abstention\*, but we’re in new territory with all this so …
\*I just coined that 🙂
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### Author:  [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)
#### Post date: [May 3, 2017, 7:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/78 "2017-05-03T07:12:20Z")
> [@Great\_White\_Dope](#):
>
> From the rumblings I’m hearing, this is shaping up to be a Le Pen blow out victory.
>
> It’s safe to say the clock has struck 11:59 on the E.U. and the globalists’ dream of worldwide power and control.
I very much doubt this, but then again im hopeless at predicting individual elections. Macron will probably win this time around. Having said that I am firmly of the belief that the FN will win a Presidential election in the near future. In fact I find it difficult to see any way of them \*not \*winning either the next Presidential election or the one after that.
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### Author:  [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)
#### Post date: [May 3, 2017, 8:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/79 "2017-05-03T08:53:21Z")
> [@Great\_White\_Dope](#):
>
> From the rumblings I’m hearing, this is shaping up to be a Le Pen blow out victory.
Reports indicate otherwise. The French have a track record of giving those in power a good scare by voting for the FN in the first round. Then they vote sensibly in the second. The FN only got a bit over 20% in the first round this time.
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### Author:  [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)
#### Post date: [May 3, 2017, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/french-presidential-election-2017/781294/80 "2017-05-03T13:12:20Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#):
>
> Fwiw, I do think we will see unusual levels of conscientious abstention\*, but we’re in new territory with all this so …
>
> \*I just coined that 🙂
Agree with this. I also like your coinage.
I think though that it’s \*probably \*not enough to swing it to FN. It is good that the election is soon; if it had another couple months to run we’d really be biting our nails in nervous anticipation.
Certainly the error bars on predictability this time are waay up. Rather as we saw in the recent US elections. When large fractions of the populace often don’t bother to vote, those people represent a “hidden” reservoir of votes that can appear out of relative nowhere and overwhelm what’s otherwise a rather finely balanced left/right tradeoff.
In many countries around the world the next 10-40 years of politics will be about locating and motivating these “dark pools” of potential voters to swing elections. Many of whom have some pretty dark desires vis-à-vis ordinary politics-as-usual.
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