# Friday night, $2,000 at the casino **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [April 27, 2025, 6:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555 "2025-04-27T06:39:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Just\_Asking\_Questions](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba9def/32.png) [@Just\_Asking\_Questions](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Just_Asking_Questions)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/121 "2025-04-29T17:44:08Z")
> [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](#): > > I don’t NEED to be a “mathmatically-sound gambling enthusiast”. And I’m not out $2K because I have to keep chasing the dragon. Note: bragging about comped rooms doesn’t mean anything if you’re just staying at the casino and losing more money. I can get a “comped room” at my own house. Unless you don’t have a place of your own and only rely on the kindness of casinos. ---
**Author:** ![MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ec9cab/32.png) [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MW_Degen_Gamblr)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/122 "2025-04-29T18:00:52Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > > [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](#): > > > > You’re not totally wrong. It is kind of hard getting that fifth ball. That’s why I said make sure that the credit prizes are high, to compensate for the money you put in the machine. And ideally there’s a free space. If you get “bingo” with a free space, you might get additional bonuses. And that particular game needs to have a high payback percentage. If it is low, chasing +EV might be very difficult. I won’t even play that game at certain casinos. > > But how do you know it is +EV? > E(winnings) = payout X p(win) > You know the payout but how do you know p(O69)? Take it down. Take it down. Take it DOWN. Some of you all are looking at this from a pilot’s perspective. You need to get into the weeds. Fancy math isn’t needed. Get out and play and get the feel. With me, it’s “trial and error”. There are dozens of games that can be “AP’d”. Deciding at which point a game is +EV depends entirely on the specific game title and which casino it’s located. Let’s use the Green Machine Bingo for example. Let’s say I’m betting $1 and the four balls add up $5, no free space. I’ll play that about 10 times (or watch someone else), if I win more money than I put into the machine about 7 or 8 times, I’ll consider it APable. But that isn’t APable. But I found out that betting $1 with the balls adding up to $10 is APable, especially with a free space. Again using a sample of 10 tries. When I lost my ass Friday night, that was a game I ran NO trials and errors. My first time I ever played it. Whenever I went about $300 deep, I let my emotions get the best of me and went crazy. I was already in a bad mood that night. Was I in my right mind, I should’ve experimented with lower bets and watched other people play. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/123 "2025-04-29T18:05:06Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > But there is a gambling strategy in short-term. I’m going to play 5 hands of blackjack or $10 of slots. If I hit big I immediately walk away. Surprisingly this can be very effective (accounting for confirmation bias) like when I went to a casino for lunch with the family. $50 and 5 plays on roulette single-number @ $10 per play. 33 came up on the second spin and I walked away and the family had a **really** good lunch. No, this is the exact fallacy the OP is falling to. That is not a “strategy”. It is a way that you can _sometimes_ walk out of a casino with more money than you when you walked in. But you are still more likely to walk out with $0. The time you walked away after hitting 33 at roulette - was that the only time you’ve ever gambled? How much did you lose other times? If you repeated that strategy tomorrow, would you expect to come out ahead or behind? ---
**Author:** ![MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ec9cab/32.png) [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MW_Degen_Gamblr)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/124 "2025-04-29T18:06:48Z")
> [@Just\_Asking\_Questions](#): > > > [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](#): > > > > I don’t NEED to be a “mathmatically-sound gambling enthusiast”. > > And I’m not out $2K because I have to keep chasing the dragon. > > Note: bragging about comped rooms doesn’t mean anything if you’re just staying at the casino and losing more money. I can get a “comped room” at my own house. Unless you don’t have a place of your own and only rely on the kindness of casinos. Are you saying that I’m pouring THOUSANDS of dollars per week to get comped rooms? Man, if I were in that bracket of having THOUSANDS of dollars per week to donate to the casino…I would never be fucking around in casinos in the first place. Gambling just to be gambling is stupid and boring. If I want to risk my money I would play the stock market. If I wanted to game, I would get a damn playstation. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/125 "2025-04-29T18:07:38Z")
Would you be willing to share the spreadsheets where you’ve tracked the odds and winnings under these different conditions? I assume you must have data to feel this confident, not just a “gut feel” based on imperfect memory and confirmation bias. > [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](#): > > You need to get into the weeds. Fancy math isn’t needed. Get out and play and get the feel. Oh, never mind. ---
**Author:** ![MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ec9cab/32.png) [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MW_Degen_Gamblr)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/126 "2025-04-29T18:08:33Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > > [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > > > But there is a gambling strategy in short-term. I’m going to play 5 hands of blackjack or $10 of slots. If I hit big I immediately walk away. Surprisingly this can be very effective (accounting for confirmation bias) like when I went to a casino for lunch with the family. $50 and 5 plays on roulette single-number @ $10 per play. 33 came up on the second spin and I walked away and the family had a **really** good lunch. > > No, this is the exact fallacy the OP is falling to. That is not a “strategy”. It is a way that you can _sometimes_ walk out of a casino with more money than you when you walked in. But you are still more likely to walk out with $0. > > The time you walked away after hitting 33 at roulette - was that the only time you’ve ever gambled? How much did you lose other times? If you repeated that strategy tomorrow, would you expect to come out ahead or behind? Do not play roulette, that shit cannot be “AP’d”. You’ll be lighting money on fire. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/127 "2025-04-29T18:09:13Z")
> [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](#): > > Take it down. > Take it down. > Take it DOWN. > > Some of you all are looking at this from a pilot’s perspective. You need to get into the weeds. Fancy math isn’t needed. Get out and play and get the feel. Ahhh… Now I understand what is happening here > **[Confirmation bias](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias)** > > Confirmation bias (also confirmatory bias, myside bias\[a\] or congeniality bias) is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values. People display this bias when they select information that supports their views, ignoring contrary information or when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing attitudes. The effect is strongest for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues and fo Biase... ---
**Author:** ![MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ec9cab/32.png) [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MW_Degen_Gamblr)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/128 "2025-04-29T18:09:51Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > Would you be willing to share the spreadsheets where you’ve tracked the odds and winnings under these different conditions? I assume you must have data to feel this confident, not just a “gut feel” based on imperfect memory and confirmation bias. > > > [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](#): > > > > You need to get into the weeds. Fancy math isn’t needed. Get out and play and get the feel. > > Oh, never mind. I’m not a math person, you’re barking up the wrong tree. I’m a writer. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/129 "2025-04-29T18:10:33Z")
> [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](#): > > Gambling just to be gambling is stupid and boring. If I want to risk my money I would play the stock market. If I wanted to game, I would get a damn playstation. Those would both be better uses of your time and money, I agree. ---
**Author:** ![MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ec9cab/32.png) [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MW_Degen_Gamblr)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/130 "2025-04-29T18:11:19Z")
You don’t need math to be good at this. You only need math if you want to be precise. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/131 "2025-04-29T18:11:31Z")
> [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](#): > > I’m not a math person, you’re barking up the wrong tree. I’m a writer. Hmm, is this one of those tells you’re talking about? ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/132 "2025-04-29T18:12:04Z")
> [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](#): > > You don’t need math to be good at this. That’s true, because you cannot be _good_ at a game of chance. You _do_ need math to _understand that_, apparently. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/133 "2025-04-29T18:22:41Z")
> [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](#): > > When the gaming commissions and slot manufacturers run tests on these games they do not facture in ///advantage play///. They run those cycles from beginning to end. They don’t facture in annoying ///slot vultures/// circling around the slot waiting for them to build up to a bonus, them cashing out, and then the vultures taking the bonus left behind and them cashing out after the bonus strikes. If they did factor them in, they might put something on the slot machine that _looks like_ it’s about to cash out, to appeal to wannabe vultures, but actually moves much slower than the vultures anticipate, preying on the vultures’ impulsivity and contempt for mathematical analysis. If they did factor in advantage play, I bet they could easily get a couple grand out of the advantage player. You’re thinking one step ahead of them. They’re thinking three steps ahead of you. For you, it’s a side hustle. For them, it’s a multi-billion-dollar industry that employs brilliant mathematicians and psychologists. Of course they factor in advantage play. Why would they leave your money on the table? Your OP is a perfect story about how they’ve factored it in. ---
**Author:** ![Beckdawrek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beckdawrek/32/3647_2.png) [@Beckdawrek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beckdawrek)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/134 "2025-04-29T18:25:56Z")
You can always play claw games for your “take a chance” needs. ---
**Author:** ![MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ec9cab/32.png) [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MW_Degen_Gamblr)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/135 "2025-04-29T18:28:47Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > > [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](#): > > > > Take it down. > > Take it down. > > Take it DOWN. > > > > Some of you all are looking at this from a pilot’s perspective. You need to get into the weeds. Fancy math isn’t needed. Get out and play and get the feel. > > Ahhh… Now I understand what is happening here > > [Confirmation bias - Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias) > [@Babale](#): > > > [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](#): > > > > Take it down. > > Take it down. > > Take it DOWN. > > > > Some of you all are looking at this from a pilot’s perspective. You need to get into the weeds. Fancy math isn’t needed. Get out and play and get the feel. > > Ahhh… Now I understand what is happening here > > [Confirmation bias - Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias) If I were operating under confirmation bias. Reality would’ve hit me a looooooong time ago. Empty wallets. Car repossessions. Pay day loans. Selling gold chains at train stops. “Busking” (pretending to play the violin but along with a stereo) in Walmart parking lots. Stealing change from my daughter’s piggy bank (yeah some dude did that). Rice and beans. Selling jars of my flatulence on Only Fans. The non-AP winning streaks only last so long. Got dammit, no wonder employers don’t like to hire people straight out of college. Learning theories will only take you so far. There needs to be practice and experience. This thread would not have 132 replies had some people ever experimented with these games. There would be no debate. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/136 "2025-04-29T18:28:52Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > No, this is the exact fallacy the OP is falling to. That is not a “strategy”. It is a way that you can _sometimes_ walk out of a casino with more money than you when you walked in. But you are still more likely to walk out with $0. I consider a strategy as distinct from a system. For me strategy at blackjack is playing the best system and money management whereas my system is to press a winning bet twice and take it all down at once then start over. In roulette my strategy was either win big or lose $50 and play for a short-term win whereas a system (which I don’t play) would be the Martingale or the Fibonacci system or that new one of covering high/red/3rd colum with proportional bets. I showed that mathematically it doesn’t create any difference just more volatility. I think I’m done with this thread. It is like talking to a CTer. Saying this in all seriousness, the OP needs help that we cannot provide and when I see > [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](#): > > You don’t need math to be good at this. You only need math if you want to be precise. I need to check out ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/137 "2025-04-29T18:31:57Z")
> [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](#): > > If I were operating under confirmation bias. Reality would’ve hit me a looooooong time ago. Empty wallets. Car repossessions. Pay day loans. Selling gold chains at train stops. “Busking” (pretending to play the violin but along with a stereo) in Walmart parking lots. Stealing change from my daughter’s piggy bank (yeah some dude did that). Rice and beans. Selling jars of my flatulence on Only Fans. How much exactly have you won or lost over the last year? Net gain. ---
**Author:** ![MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ec9cab/32.png) [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MW_Degen_Gamblr)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/138 "2025-04-29T18:40:42Z")
> [@Beckdawrek](#): > > You can always play claw games for your “take a chance” needs. > [@Beckdawrek](#): > > You can always play claw games for your “take a chance” needs. I’m typically not a take a chance person. I would never play those. I don’t play carnival games either. No roulette, no blackjack (that can be APed too, but I don’t have the patience), no baccarat, no lotto. Lotto is yet another game that can be APed, but I don’t have to bankroll and I don’t want to Feds knocking on my door. Before someone calls “bullshit”, here’s a link to a story on a couple who beat the Michigan lotto. [How A Couple Won $26 Million Using A Lottery Loophole They Found In Minutes (msn.com)](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/how-a-couple-won-26-million-using-a-lottery-loophole-they-found-in-minutes/ar-BB1qjYnA) ---
**Author:** ![Beckdawrek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beckdawrek/32/3647_2.png) [@Beckdawrek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beckdawrek)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/139 "2025-04-29T18:47:47Z")
Hey, the claw games can be AP’d.(if I understand AP) According to some dude on YouTube. ---
**Author:** ![MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ec9cab/32.png) [@MW\_Degen\_Gamblr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MW_Degen_Gamblr)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555/140 "2025-04-29T18:51:33Z")
Here’s some more interesting stuff. This stuff isn’t “AP”, but these folks were able to exploit games for their benefit. Don’t try these at home, kids. You’ll like go to jail or something huh huh huh. Just wanted to demonstrate that games can have flaws in their design. They’re designed by human beings, humans make mistakes. [Finding a Video Poker Bug Made These Guys Rich—Then Vegas Made Them Pay | WIRED](https://www.wired.com/2014/10/cheating-video-poker/) [A Russian Slot Machine Hack Is Costing Casinos Big Time | WIRED](https://www.wired.com/2017/02/russians-engineer-brilliant-slot-machine-cheat-casinos-no-fix/) [Slots gamers ‘exploit’ Hollywood Racino glitch for $15K (wkbn.com)](https://www.wkbn.com/news/local-news/slots-gamers-exploit-racino-glitch-for-15k-report/) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/friday-night-2-000-at-the-casino/1017555.md?page=8)