# Frontrunners for Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, {DO NOT rehash past candidates} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 16, 2025, 6:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036 "2025-01-16T06:50:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 114
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2272 "2026-08-25T01:15:07Z")
I normally say that you should only look at polling averages, but I think that the relative positions of the candidates probably means something. So this is interesting: [Emerson August 2026 Poll](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2026-national-poll/) Scroll down to the charts for Buttigieg, Ossoff, Newsom, Harris and AOC vs. Vance and Rubio. Good news to me is Buttigieg being, by a small margin, the strongest candidate (49 percent for Pete and 44 percent for either Vance or Rubio). Why good news? I’m thinking that if someone only knows one thing about Buttigieg, they know he is gay, and he’s doing well anyway. Of course this is early and Pete is only ahead by a bit, and I would expect there to be a lot of moving about in these rankings over the next couple years. Ossoff is second-strongest Democrat. . This poll illustrates to me why you shouldn’t a priori think that the strongest candidate is going to be a straight white male Christian. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2273 "2026-08-25T01:18:49Z")
True he was low in funds, and was not spending huge amounts … but he had enough to last to there and was the clear top competitor to Sanders getting the nod. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2274 "2026-08-25T01:39:13Z")
Obviously there are a lot of things up in the air. But I think it would be shocking if she was the first VP in a century to run for the democratic nomination and not only lose, but even couldn’t hang in until after the first primary. I think the only way that happens is if she has internals of her losing SC, and she’d want to help push her preferred candidate to success. Which feasibly could happen, but it would probably be the most earth shattering moment of the primary. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2275 "2026-08-25T01:58:05Z")
List of folk who lost running as VP and ran again? Nixon. Won. Humphrey. Lost. And per Claude: “ **George Clinton / John C. Breckinridge / Charles Fairbanks** — each ran once as VP and either lost or failed to get the nomination again” The other ones who ran as VP and lost knew better than to try again after losing. Even Quayle was smart enough for that! 🙂 Apparently Nixon has to be the role model … ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2276 "2026-08-25T03:25:23Z")
FDR had a run on the 1920 ticket as VP. Also not to overstate the obvious but Nixon’s problem was never his electability. But your point is taken Humphrey was the candidate whose presidential run was closest to Harris’, and he lost the next primary. I would argue the primary process has change significantly since then, but it’s certainly a precedented outcome. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2277 "2026-08-25T04:28:44Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Winning the support of voters who don’t yet have an opinion of you is hard; winning the votes of those who already have a negative opinion of you though? That is closer to impossible. On that- > **[What Americans Think About VP Vance | Navigator Research](https://navigatorresearch.org/what-americans-think-about-vp-vance/)** > > This Navigator Research report covers perceptions of Vice President JD Vance, including how much Americans trust him on key issues and concerns Americans have about him. #### \> **Vice President Vance is Unpopular, Just Barely Surpassing Trump** > Vice President Vance has a net favorability of -12 (40% favorable – 52% unfavorable, including 40% who find him “very unfavorable”), having been at net -11 favorability for the past four Navigator surveys. So, yes, many Dem candidates are pretty unpopular in nationwide polls (counting GOP voices al), but they will run against a man whois also pretty damn unpopular. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 10:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2278 "2026-08-25T10:12:39Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Vice President Vance is Unpopular, Just Barely Surpassing Trump (the headline) That means there is at least one person who disapproves of Trump but approves of Vance. …_what?_ ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 10:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2279 "2026-08-25T10:36:52Z")
…maybe Vance was a participant in the survey? ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 11:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2280 "2026-08-25T11:23:15Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Whereas I doubt she will even make it that far. If she even runs, which I suspect she is smart enough not to do. Agreed. (This refers to Harris). ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 11:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2281 "2026-08-25T11:27:19Z")
Vance (whose net unfavorable is still not as bad as Harris’s) could be the GOP candidate. Or it could be Rubio, whose unfavorable is less than that, 44%. > **[How Americans view key members of the Trump administration](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/02/12/how-americans-view-key-members-of-the-trump-administration/)** > > A 58% majority say they have an unfavorable view of President Donald Trump, and 40% have a favorable view. I’d expect Rubio myself. But could be none of the above. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2282 "2026-08-25T12:51:03Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > That means there is at least one person who disapproves of Trump but approves of Vance. Saying Vance is better than Trump is not a high bar. In fact, I’d put the bar somewhere around the bottom of the Kola Borehole. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2283 "2026-08-25T13:19:12Z")
Sure–but the question isn’t, “Who’s worse, Darth Vader or Grand Moff Tarkin?” The questions are, “Do you approve of Darth Vader? Do you approve of Grand Moff Tarkin?” I understand that some Imperial simps are on team Darth Vader; and I understand thinking Vader is worse than Tarkin. What I don’t understand is being anti-Vader but pro-Tarkin. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2284 "2026-08-25T14:15:59Z")
What if they really, really don’t like Jedi? My guess? It’s people who agree with Trump’s policies in general, but think he’s a disgusting person and/or a crook. Whereas Vance comes across as merely corrupt within normal Republican parameters, and doesn’t have a personality to dislike. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2285 "2026-08-25T15:02:46Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > doesn’t have a personality to dislike So well put. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2286 "2026-08-25T17:28:24Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Vance (whose net unfavorable is still not as bad as Harris’s) could be the GOP candidate. > [@DrDeth](#): > > Vice President Vance has a net favorability of -12 (40% favorable – 52% unfavorable, including 40% who find him “very unfavorable”) > **[Kamala Harris: Favorable/Unfavorable | RealClearPolling](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris)** > > Kamala Harris: Favorable/Unfavorable | RealClearPolling | **41.7** | **53.7** | The difference is not significant. > [@DSeid](#): > > Or it could be Rubio, whose unfavorable is less than that, 44%. See, Rubio is barely known. The more well known- the worse the rating- overall, that is the trend. American voters are deeply polarized. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2287 "2026-08-25T17:42:37Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > The difference is not significant. Do one RCP averages then do both. > **[Marco Rubio: Favorable/Unfavorable | RealClearPolling](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/marco-rubio)** > > Marco Rubio: Favorable/Unfavorable | RealClearPolling Harris underwater 12. Rubio 3. 53% unfavorable Harris. More than half. Rubio unfavorable 41. These are significant differences. Yes voters are polarized. 46, 48 percent unfavorable is probably where a winning candidate ends up , with 51 to 52 favorable. Once you are over 50 unfavorable?Hard to win. Not impossible. Who turns out matters. But your supporters gotta love you. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2288 "2026-08-25T18:09:15Z")
Interestingly, a little more than 20% of voters appear undecided on Rubio, and less than 5% are undecided on Harris. I suspect that if she does (shudder) run again, and (shudder) win the nomination, her favorability will creep up. Plenty of leftists frustrated with her last campaign, and with her inability to reflect on her errors, will reluctantly dance with the one what brought us, if it comes to that. Rubio, though, has a lot of room to go down, as people learn more about him. That 20% undecided number is going to drop as he leans toward or away from Trump. A Rubio/Harris faceoff isn’t my dream situation, but not because of the relative favorability scores. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2026, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2289 "2026-08-25T22:24:47Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > I understand that some Imperial simps are on team Darth Vader; and I understand thinking Vader is worse than Tarkin. What I don’t understand is being anti-Vader but pro-Tarkin. Say what you will about the tenets of Darth Vader, at least it’s an ethos. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2026, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2290 "2026-08-26T02:20:45Z")
If we’re looking for the candidate with the highest combination of favorability and name recognition, the answer would have to be (South Carolina native) Stephen Colbert. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2026, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2291 "2026-08-26T04:25:05Z")
Who has no experience and as soon as he was a real candidate, his unfavourability rating would jump. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036.md?page=113) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036.md?page=115)