# Frontrunners for Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, {DO NOT rehash past candidates} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 16, 2025, 6:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036 "2025-01-16T06:50:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 137
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2733 "2026-10-14T00:14:36Z")
> **[Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com)](https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mxsauxl42722)** > > Q: Will you pledge to serve your full six year term if you win? > > OSSOFF: Yes, I will. I have zero interest in running for president. I'm running for Senate.\*immediately resumes savaging Mike Collins\* ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2734 "2026-10-14T00:22:02Z")
Does the disgrace of Kimberly Guilfoyle, ex-wife of Gavin Newsom, reduce Newsom’s chances of getting the nomination? ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2735 "2026-10-14T00:50:43Z")
I doubt it. She and Newsom divorced 20 years ago, and she’s much more associated with her more recent (but no longer) partner, Don Jr., and being full-on MAGA now. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2736 "2026-10-14T00:51:57Z")
Politicians say things need to say. I don’t believe for a minute that Ossoff wouldn’t bid adieu to the Senate if he thinks he has a legit shot at the brass ring in '28. From [Meet the Press](https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna15304689): > (January 22, 2006): > > MR. RUSSERT: When we talked back in November of ‘04, after your election, I said, “There’s been enormous speculation about your political future. Will you serve your full six-year term as a United States senator from Illinois?” Obama: “Absolutely.” > > SEN. OBAMA: I will serve out my full six-year term. You know, Tim, if you get asked enough, sooner or later you get weary and you start looking for new ways of saying things, but my thinking has not changed. > > MR. RUSSERT: But, but—so you will not run for president or vice president in 2008? > > SEN. OBAMA: I will not ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2737 "2026-10-14T00:58:02Z")
One thing that strikes me is that the paths look very different based on whether or not particular possibilities decide to run. I don’t think Harris will run (or get the nom if she does) but the out of the gate phase looks very different with her in or not. Likewise AOC has made noise that she understands the electability concerns re her identities and she doesn’t “shy away from those realities.” My WAG is Senate for her. And as above Ossoff is making a pretty strong denial, not just a non answer “not at this time” denial … could reverse but pretend no. So imagine the race out of the gates with none of those three in the mix, but any and all of any others. How do you see it shaking out? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2738 "2026-10-14T01:11:24Z")
Absolutely. There’s a lot of what historians call path dependency in political races. IIRC many of the big name traditional Rs sat out the opening gun of the 2016 primary season. It was 7 dwarves working hard to get commentators to pronounce their names correctly. Then trump showed up and wiped out the field. A D field in the 2028 primary season that lacks the big names will be the same phenomenon. If a big name or a charismatic outsider swoops in, they may carry it all. If not, the Ds will end up with some relative unknown as their least bad least offensive to their fringes compromise nominee. And the Fascists will win the election by a large margin. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2739 "2026-10-14T02:04:02Z")
So none of the other likely to run people both appeal to you and have a path? Honestly there are few of the list that I don’t think would be very good candidates. Even Newsom. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2740 "2026-10-14T02:21:04Z")
> **Summary** > > > [@LSLGuy](#): > > > > But if we do get some catchily strident far-left candidate who collects a significant following then loses the D primary, I do expect a lot of them to be sour grapes stay-at-homes in Nov. Just like there always is. Sort of a replay of Bernie vs Hillary. > > Is there any evidence that any significant number of Sanders primary supporters refused to vote for Clinton? Real people, I mean, not Russian agitator-bots. > > > [@LSLGuy](#): > > > > Note how many smart hip people here have argued loud and long for years that abstaining from voting for your team does _not_ amount to a vote for the other team. Of course it does, but they’re not able (willing?) to comprehend that. > > A vote for the other team is a swing of two. Staying home is a swing of one. Both are bad, but they’re not equal. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 7:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2741 "2026-10-14T07:53:15Z")
> **Summary** > > > [@Chronos](#): > > > > Is there any evidence that any significant number of Sanders primary supporters refused to vote for Clinton? > > [Analyzing how Bernie Sanders supporters voted in the 2016 General Election](https://sites.google.com/view/brianfschaffner/reports/how-sanders-supporters-behaved-in-the-2016-general-election?pli=1&authuser=0). You can draw your own conclusions from that. > > For comparison, here’s a [summary of a similar study on Clinton primary supporters vis a vis Obama](https://journalistsresource.org/politics-and-government/sour-grapes-rational-voting-decision-thwarted-primary-2008/) (the original study is paywalled beyond the abstract). ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 8:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2742 "2026-10-14T08:13:55Z")
> **Summary** > > I caucused for Sanders in 2016 and voted for Clinton in the general. > > I supported Elizabeth Warren in 2020, but I voted for Biden in the general. > > I _really_ wanted to cast a protest vote for Taylor Swift in 2024, but I held my nose and voted Harris anyway. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2743 "2026-10-14T13:21:37Z")
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**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2744 "2026-10-14T13:24:42Z")
Moderating: @Chronos Hiding entire reply as this is not the thread for Sanders. @Tamerlane Hiding entire reply as this is not the thread for Sanders. @Smapti Hiding and issuing warning as you have been directly told this is a thread only for current candidates and not to rehash past ones. You have 181 posts in this thread and at least 2 modnotes addressed directly to you. **Remember, replying to an off-topic post by another poster does not make your post on-topic.** Thread will be closed for 6 hours as this thread is mostly trouble at this point. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2745 "2026-10-14T19:28:49Z")
This topic was automatically opened after 6 hours. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2746 "2026-10-14T20:04:37Z")
RealClearPolitics has new polling info- good for senate and Prez- > **[2026 Latest Election Polls and Political Insights | RealClearPolling](https://www.realclearpolling.com/)** > > Explore up-to-date 2026/2028 election polls on RealClearPolling. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends. Top Three are Harris, Newsom and Buttigieg. Then AOC then Ossoff. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2747 "2026-10-14T21:15:13Z")
I’d really want to see some state specific numbers but this sure feels like 2 to 1 odds that Harris is the nominee. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2748 "2026-10-14T22:11:02Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Top Three are Harris, Newsom and Buttigieg. Then AOC then Ossoff. Literally a name-recognition poll, it seems to me…except maybe Buttigieg over AOC representing some semblance of actual preference (which I find interesting). ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2749 "2026-10-14T22:13:35Z")
Way to early. At this point in past cycles, the top name was just who was most familiar to voters, and almost never matched the eventual nominee. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2750 "2026-10-14T23:30:42Z")
Polls may be of little value now but there are other indicators that can inform significantly - such as what support do have from those whose support will matter critically and who may be best informed? When [both your spouse and your major donors](https://archive.ph/2026.10.10-102028/https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/kamala-harriss-husband-privately-says-he-doesnt-want-her-to-run-for-president-again-4329fba6) are encouraging you to NOT run I would not bet on her running or prevailing if she does. > her husband has privately told some people he would prefer she didn’t run and some donors have told her directly that a bid would be a long shot, according to people familiar with the conversations. How do we define the lanes at this point? Progressive for sure is one. AOCs if she wants it, but if she opts for the Senate run … Khanna maybe? But no where near AOCs strength. I heard Buttigieg as the “competent institutionalist” lane … he’d have to connect with Black voters in SC as his proving ground. Daunting in any case but less so if Harris isn’t there. Newsom and Pritzker big state governors who can self fund in any state. Swing state winners - Ossoff; Kelly and Galleago both of AZ; Shapiro; Beshear. Galleago not well known but NV and NM are both fairly early and play to his hand. MI comes up pretty early? I could imagine either Pritzker or Buttigieg doing well there. It would be interesting to see how (assuming elected) El Sayed plays his hand. He might bend over backwards to support a Jewish candidate who rejects AIPAC and criticizes Israel, like a Pritzker or Shapiro. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2026, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2751 "2026-10-14T23:57:42Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Newsom and Pritzker big state governors who can self fund in any state. Do you mean because they’re personally rich enough? Pritzker is (net worth in the billions), Newsom isn’t (net worth in the few tens of millions). Newsom’s wife Jennifer Siebel is from a wealthy family (investment manager father) and grew up in the super-tony enclave of Ross, but the billionaire in the group is from a different branch and is a Republican backer. The Newsoms are certainly rich by any reasonable definition of the word. They own ~$15 million in property and over and above his Governor’s salary Gavin pulls in about $1 million/year in income from a blind trust wherein lies the shares of the hospitality/food/wine company he co-founded. But they’re not mega-rich in a can-self-fund-a-presidential-primary-run sense ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2026, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2752 "2026-10-15T00:13:28Z")
My misimpression! I thought he was in not Pritzker level but still more up there. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036.md?page=136) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036.md?page=138)