# Frontrunners for Democratic presidential nomination in 2028 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 16, 2025, 6:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036 "2025-01-16T06:50:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 62
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1221 "2026-01-06T02:53:49Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Yes, but that was not the Presidents fault. In fact the White House cant really do much to reduce inflation, except maybe very slowly. Did you miss me saying this in response to you? > [@kenobi\_65](#): > > You know and I know that presidents get _way_ too much credit for a good economy, and _way_ too much blame for a bad economy. I don’t disagree that _much_ (but probably not _all_) of the inflation problem was not the fault of Biden and his policies. COVID fucked up the global economy for years, and it was worse in many other countries than it was here. But, again, the point is that inflation was, for _several years_, worse than it had been in years, which damaged consumer confidence, and rightly or wrongly, the guy in the White House gets it in the teeth, favorability-wise, when that happens. James Carville wasn’t wrong: “it’s the economy, stupid.” When people feel that the economy is bad, they are likely to vote against an incumbent, and Carville was saying that, when your opponent is overseeing a country in bad economic shape, that’s what you hammer on. > [@DrDeth](#): > > First two were from trump. Yes, no kidding, as they were in 2020, and I did not claim that they weren’t Trump’s work. The third one, which directly affected consumer spending in 2021 (and maybe into 2022), was supported by, and signed by, Biden. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1222 "2026-01-06T02:55:17Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Yes, no kidding, as they were in 2020, and I did not claim that they weren’t Trump’s work. Nor did you mention it. And really $1400 per taxpayer aint doing that much for the economy. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1223 "2026-01-06T03:02:55Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > And really $1400 per taxpayer aint doing that much for the economy. ARPA was, in total, $1.9 trillion dollars, but it appears that the direct stimulus payments amounted to about $400 billion. $400 billion _is_ doing a lot in the economy; it is the equivalent of 1.7% of the U.S.'s entire GDP for 2021. And, as per my earlier link, the Federal Reserve’s analysis did determine that the three rounds of stimulus payments (_ **and yes, in pedantic redundant disclosure, only ONE of those three payments was made by the Biden Administration** _) _were_ a significant factor in U.S. inflation. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1224 "2026-01-06T03:14:27Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > Consider AOC, for instance; her only competitive election was her first primary, where she built a grassroots organization that upset a well-financed incumbent. Brooklyn obviously isn’t a swing district, but it is true that she has experience winning elections that nobody gave her a chance in. She has no experience winning a general election in a constituency Trump won. Winning primaries, while very relevant to whether she can win the nomination, is irrelevant if you want to beat MAGA. The Democrats are incredibly lucky that there is such a big choice of candidates who have proven ability to win in constituencies that also go for MAGA candidates and who aren’t centrists. It would be political malpractice to nominate AOC because her ability to win purple constituencies is a complete unknown. There also is the issue of being able to bring your state with you. My recollection of past presidential cycles is that there usually wasn’t a single viable Democrat like that. You had to pick someone from Illinois or New York or California or Massachusetts or Delaware because that’s all there was. Now we have half a dozen from swing states (or a red state winner, Bashear). The only one I (and, I know, few others) would consider, who is not from a swing state, is Andy Kim, because he ran so far ahead of Trump in a Trumpy congressional district. By my criteria, this would have to be balanced against him coming from New Jersey, which is not a presidential swing state. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1225 "2026-01-06T03:32:51Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > There also is the issue of being able to bring your state with you. AFAICT, no presidential candidate has “brought their state with them” since Bill Clinton. Texas would have gone red whether or not Dubya ran. Ditto for Illinois with Obama and Delaware for Biden. Trump didn’t win New York in any of his three campaigns. On the losing side, Gore and Romney both lost their home states, while Kerry, McCain, Hillary Clinton, and Harris were all from safe states. I don’t think there’s really a significant number of voters who are going to vote for a candidate on the basis of being from the same state as them. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1226 "2026-01-06T03:42:35Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > And, as per my earlier link, the Federal Reserve’s analysis did determine that the three rounds of stimulus payments (_ **and yes, in pedantic redundant disclosure, only ONE of those three payments was made by the Biden Administration** _) _were_ a significant factor in U.S. inflation. And, as you fail to mention again, TWO were from trump. > [@Smapti](#): > > I don’t think there’s really a significant number of voters who are going to vote for a candidate on the basis of being from the same state as them. Harris won CA and so would Newsom. The state with the most EC votes. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1227 "2026-01-06T03:54:40Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > And, as you fail to mention again, TWO were from trump. I don’t give a shit about Trump in this conversation. You insist that Biden is unfairly blamed for inflation during his term, and have been trying to downplay just how rough recession was, and for how long (“one years inflation”). I _mostly_ agree with you, that inflation was _mostly_ not Biden’s fault, but he did champion and sign a stimulus bill, which likely _did_ contribute, to some degree, to the inflation situation. Yes, Trump signed _two_ stimulus bills, too. That’s not the point. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1228 "2026-01-06T04:50:58Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Harris won CA and so would Newsom. Was it ever in doubt that a Democrat would win California? I don’t remember a single time post-Reagan when it wasn’t called for the Democrat the instant the polls closed. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1229 "2026-01-06T05:10:01Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > I don’t remember a single time post-Reagan when it wasn’t called for the Democrat the instant the polls closed. GHW Bush won California in '88, over Dukakis. Since then: - Bill Clinton won by 13 points over GHW in 1992 - Bill Clinton won by 13 points over Dole in 1996 - Gore won by 12 points over W in 2000 - Kerry won by 10 points over W in 2004 - Obama won by 24 points over McClain in 2008 - Obama won by 23 points over Romney in 2012 - Hillary Clinton won by 30 points over Trump in 2016 - Biden won by 29 points over Trump in 2020 - Harris won by 20 points over Trump in 2024 Gist of it is, in the last five elections, _every_ Democratic candidate won California by 20+ points, and Harris (the one resident of the state among the five) had the narrowest margin of victory. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1230 "2026-01-06T05:10:45Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > GHW Bush won California in '88, over Dukakis. I did not know that. In my defense, I was five years old at the time. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1231 "2026-01-06T05:17:36Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > I did not know that. Dukakis wasn’t a great candidate, and Bush the Elder was essentially running as a continuation of the Reagan years (while also promising a “kinder and gentler” nation). Bush won 40 states, and 426 electoral votes. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1232 "2026-01-06T10:43:22Z")
Kelly doesn’t have the charisma IMHO to run for Prez. I hope he chooses not to do it. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1233 "2026-01-06T11:24:33Z")
I watched him on Rachel Maddow’s show last night, and not only does he have charisma, he has _gravitas_. I’ll grant you that he doesn’t have Gavin Newsom’s hair. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 12:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1234 "2026-01-06T12:06:23Z")
AFAICT Kelly comes across as warm and intelligent and likable in interviews. But he’s wooden and boring in speeches and on the stump. Luckily, public speaking is a skill one can improve, so hopefully he’s working on improving it. On paper he’s a great candidate. We’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1235 "2026-01-06T12:28:32Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > But he’s wooden and boring in speeches and on the stump. Yeah, I’ve only seen speeches thus far. Will have to look up interviews. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1236 "2026-01-06T13:24:18Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#): > > Yeah, I’ve only seen speeches thus far. Will have to look up interviews. This is from last night on Rachel Maddow’s show (8 mins.): > **[Sen. Kelly on Trump's pressure tactics: They'll never shut me up](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNMgpjw8elM%2F)** > > Pete Hegseth, former cable news weekend host and Donald Trump secretary of defense, is moving to demote Senator Mark Kelly and also cut his military retireme... ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1237 "2026-01-06T17:10:17Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > I don’t think there’s really a significant number of voters who are going to vote for a candidate on the basis of being from the same state as them. I agree, and despite the fact that people always talk about it, I especially don’t think anyone is going to vote for a ticket because the _Vice_-Presidential candidate is from their State! ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1238 "2026-01-06T17:38:47Z")
Perhaps, but wasn’t the “Boston-Austin axis” touted as a factor in 1960? (Less so in 1988). Not so much “from my state” as “from my region” (e.g., “The South”), with the political positioning (e.g., “progressive”) it implies. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1239 "2026-01-06T18:09:27Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Perhaps, but wasn’t the “Boston-Austin axis” touted as a factor in 1960? Shit, that was 65 years ago. What worked then has as much bearing on today as what worked in the 1700s. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2026, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036/1240 "2026-01-06T18:17:21Z")
“Research is mixed on the home state bonus afforded by running mates; if any effect does exist, it is likely small—although just a small effect could be decisive in a key state.” > **[Harris’s VP Choice: Her Options, and the Possible Home State Effects -...](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/harriss-vp-choice-her-options-and-the-possible-home-state-effects/)** > > Next week, Vice President Kamala Harris is set to announce her running mate, with the leading contenders for the job being Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ). Research suggets that, on average, recent VP candidates have provided a... [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036.md?page=61) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1013036.md?page=63)