# Frontrunners for Republican presidential nomination in 2028 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [December 17, 2025, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771 "2025-12-17T01:25:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2025, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/1 "2025-12-17T01:25:45Z")
In today’s [Vanity Fair article](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/trump-susie-wiles-interview-exclusive-part-1) quoting Susie Wiles on the record, Wiles says that Trump isn’t serious about running in 2028. So I think it is time to look at the case for there being a GOP frontrunner. To get a start on what needs to be carefully checked, I put this to the Gemini AI: > [@](#): > > Has there ever been a non-incumbent presidential candidate, this far out from the convention, who was as ahead in nomination polls as JD Vance? They came up with this: > [@](#): > > | **Candidate (Cycle)** | **Early Lead %** | **Result** | > | --- | --- | --- | > | **JD Vance (2028)** | **~51%** | _TBD_ | > | **George W. Bush (2000)** | **~45–50%** | Won Nomination | > | **Al Gore (2000)** | **~50%+** | Won Nomination | > | **Hillary Clinton (2008)** | **~38–42%** | Lost Nomination | > | **Bob Dole (1996)** | **~40–45%** | Won Nomination | > | **Walter Mondale (1984)** | **~35–40%** | Won Nomination | If we want to chip away at the above, I’ll mention that [Real Clear Politics](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2028/national) has a lesser Vance lead, as I write this, of 41 percent. That’s mostly due to one outlier Morning Consult poll where Vance is only +23, with Trump Jr. doing far better on their survey than in others. Putting it all together, I’m unwilling to say that Vance is a bigger early front-runner than any non-incumbent in U.S. polling history. But he might be. And I do claim that the Republicans have never failed to nominate someone who was such as strong front-runner, even this far out. Small sample size? Definitely. So Vance isn’t a shoo-in. It may depend on how loyal DJT is to family. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2025, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/2 "2025-12-17T01:29:31Z")
Vance is the guy to beat. But there will be a squabble. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2025, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/3 "2025-12-17T01:58:14Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > . . . there will be a squabble. If Trump declines in the polls to Starmer/Macron levels, sure. But so long as Trump has majority support in the GOP, no big squabble. In order for Trump to get to where he can’t put the kabosh on DeSantis, the economy will have fallen down so far that the GOP nomination is worthless. It could happen, but events like a real depression are so unpredictable that I tend not to factor them in. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2025, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/4 "2025-12-17T02:06:46Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > If Trump declines in the polls to Starmer/Macron levels, sure. But so long as Trump has majority support in the GOP, no big squabble. Assuming he is alive and/or compos mentis . This seems doubtful. ---
**Author:** ![Coriolanus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coriolanus/32/18769_2.png) [@Coriolanus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Coriolanus)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2025, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/5 "2025-12-17T02:24:40Z")
If SCOTUS does not uphold the 22nd amendment, nobody is going to primary Trump. I’m not even sure of the mechanism that brings it to their attention. Vance or Rubio taking it to the courts? Maybe the Dems will do them the favor. Then you’ve got to find a DOJ / Army to enforce SCOTUS’ ruling on Commander Armada’s plans. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2025, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/6 "2025-12-17T02:32:22Z")
> [@Coriolanus](#): > > If SCOTUS does not uphold the 22nd amendment, nobody is going to primary Trump. I’m not even sure of the mechanism that brings it to their attention. Vance or Rubio taking it to the courts? There’s not going to be an 83-year-old Donald Trump trying to run for a third term. Any and all talk of such is empty blather intended to coddle his ego and keep him from feeling like a lame duck. The enforcement mechanism if he attempts it is that the secretary of state in any state where he submits to run will refuse to list him as a candidate due to his being ineligible for office. ---
**Author:** ![Coriolanus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coriolanus/32/18769_2.png) [@Coriolanus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Coriolanus)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2025, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/7 "2025-12-17T03:19:29Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > There’s not going to be an 83-year-old Donald Trump I am on your side and hope you are right. Ordinarily, yeah, the Veep would announce and the President would back him/her. Maybe a Governor or Senator would join in, and Rubio has already run and maybe some primarying though I reckon Vance is the pick. Rubio is more popular and I reckon would humiliate Vance in primary debates. Yet thats in an ordinary world. I don’t know if he’ll be alive or is being kept alive, yet the first to announce better have his okay in some blathering form. And thanks for the info on how this can’t just happen via the Secretary of States, and they could bring it to SCOTUS. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2025, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/8 "2025-12-17T14:49:29Z")
> [@](#): > > If JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him. [Marco Rubio, quoted in Vanity Fair](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/us/politics/trump-susie-wiles.html?unlocked_article_code=1.9U8.naqO._R7_yM1TLtBg&smid=url-share) ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2025, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/9 "2025-12-17T17:45:32Z")
> [@](#): > > There’s not going to be an 83-year-old Donald Trump trying to run for a third term. A president being re-elected in defiance of term limits isn’t so unusual. Current examples include Evo Morales, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Nayib Bukele, Daniel Ortega, Xi, and Putin. None of those ran at such an advanced age as 83. The only current example of a term-limit-breaking president who ran and won at 83 is Alassane Ouattara (Ivory Coast). So I agree that Trump’s age argues against him being a term limit breaker. However, his authoritarian personality, and cult of personality, argues in favor of his doing it. So, I’m on the fence as to whether Trump should be considered a 2028 nomination front-runner. He’s behind Vance, but by how much? P.S. Info in this post comes from ChatGTP and Gemini checked against Wikipedia. I would never use AI to write the post, or even ask AI for its opinion. But I am finding AI invaluable for starting the process of checking a hypothesis. How these presidents ran in defiance of term limits varies. Some got the constitution changed, others got away with it due to a compliant Supreme Court. P.P.S. Elderly term-limit breaking President Alassane Ouattara, like DJT, is a University of Pennsylvania graduate. I hope it’s not something in the water here. ---
**Author:** ![scudsucker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scudsucker/32/14101_2.png) [@scudsucker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scudsucker)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2025, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/10 "2025-12-17T18:12:21Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > There’s not going to be an 83-year-old Donald Trump A man can dream. My only worry is that the “bone-spurred” coward does not make it into any national cemetery. I can easily imagine him wanting himself in Arlington, but I think under the sand-trap on the first hole at Mar-a-Lago might suit him better. ---
**Author:** ![Coriolanus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coriolanus/32/18769_2.png) [@Coriolanus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Coriolanus)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2025, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/11 "2025-12-17T21:09:18Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > There’s not going to be an 83-year-old Donald Trump I’m agnostic on the shortened version since it will not fulfill the prophecy I made in November 2016. Well, all I said is, “I hope he dies in jail”. He’s impeachment-proof and now all he has to lean on a governor and state suits are dismissed. If the grim reaper is doing the job, let it be before his third term starts so this counts as Vance’s first term and he can only (yet hopefully not) get elected once more. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2025, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/12 "2025-12-17T21:23:10Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > The enforcement mechanism if he attempts it is that the secretary of state in any state where he submits to run will refuse to list him as a candidate due to his being ineligible for office. And then the Supreme Court says, no, put him back on, and they do. We know with certainty because we’ve already seen it happen. > **[Supreme Court rules states cannot remove Trump from ballot for insurrection](https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/03/supreme-court-rules-states-cannot-remove-trump-from-ballot-for-insurrection/)** > > The Supreme Court on Monday ruled that states cannot disqualify former President Donald Trump from the ballot for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attacks on the U.S. Capitol. \[…\] While the states **do** handle elections, if the federal government steps in and tells them to do something, they will do it. Their autonomy is limited. And in this specific case, they declared that only Congress can declare Trump ineligible _in a unanimous decision_. > All nine justices agreed that Colorado cannot remove Trump from the ballot. I’m not saying that the entire judgement was unanimous, but specifically the idea that the state couldn’t choose to not list Trump as a candidate was unanimous. If it got to the point where Republicans still have a majority in Congress by the time of the next election (which I doubt will happen but it’s not impossible), if they decide that Trump should be on the ballot, and it gets to SCOTUS and they decide to “interpret” the 22nd Amendment in a BS way that determines that Trump is eligible (like the Steve Bannon argument that it only disallows more than two consecutive terms) then it doesn’t look like the states will be able to keep him off the ballot. I really don’t think that scenario is realistic. I’m not going to be a doomsayer. I believe the backlash would be so great if the Republicans attempted this, that Trump would lose in a landslide, and I believe most Republicans realize this. So it won’t happen. But as a hypothetical, it _could_ happen. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2025, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/13 "2025-12-17T21:33:15Z")
The ruling wasn’t that “the state couldn’t choose to not list Trump as a candidate”. It was that the state didn’t have the power to declare him guilty of insurrection. States can and do exclude people from the ballot on the basis of ineligibility. [https://scdailygazette.com/2024/01/10/judge-quickly-denies-foreign-born-candidates-attempt-to-be-on-scs-democratic-primary-ballot/](https://scdailygazette.com/2024/01/10/judge-quickly-denies-foreign-born-candidates-attempt-to-be-on-scs-democratic-primary-ballot/) ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2025, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/14 "2025-12-17T21:44:23Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > States can and do exclude people from the ballot on the basis of ineligibility. But not unilaterally. That is the point. > [@Smapti](#): > > The ruling wasn’t that “the state couldn’t choose to not list Trump as a candidate”. It quite explicitly was. > “But the notion that the Constitution grants the States freer rein than Congress to decide how Section 3 should be enforced with respect to federal offices is simply implausible,” the court concluded. And that enforcement was to remove Trump from the ballot. States can’t do that on their own. If the federal government hasn’t determined Trump to be ineligible, a state can’t decide that themselves. While it seems obvious that Trump wouldn’t be eligible, it seems that the language of the 22nd Amendment is clear and it should be uncontroversial for him to be excluded, and I don’t deny any of that, if somehow the federal government found a way to say it doesn’t apply here, the states can’t defy that. **But I do concede that something would have to happen between now and then to make that happen.** Right now, by any reasonable reading of the amendment, he is ineligible, and states would be _prevented_ from listing him as a candidate. It would take something extraordinary for that to change, but we’ve seen extraordinary things happen lately (such as the ridiculous ruling that the POTUS is immune from prosecution for anything they do in the course of their duties, which seems to go against all previously established law on the subject). ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2025, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/15 "2025-12-17T22:05:16Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > But not unilaterally. Yes, unilaterally. It doesn’t require an act of Congress to determine whether someone has been elected president twice. > [@Atamasama](#): > > If the federal government hasn’t determined Trump to be ineligible, a state can’t decide that _On the basis of being guilty of insurrection_, not in general. The federal government hasn’t determined Cenl Uygur to be ineligible, yet the Supreme Court didn’t stop states from refusing to list him. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2025, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/16 "2025-12-17T22:13:14Z")
I think I misunderstood your initial argument Smapti. You said: > [@Smapti](#): > > The enforcement mechanism if he attempts it is that the secretary of state in any state where he submits to run will refuse to list him as a candidate due to his being ineligible for office. You weren’t saying that would be the end of it, you were saying that would be the _start_ of it, because **Coriolanus** was asking what would be the enforcement mechanism of the 22nd Amendment that would trigger SCOTUS involvement, and you are right. Because that’s exactly what happened in Colorado, and that’s what caused SCOTUS to intervene. I apologize for not reading more carefully in your initial response. I was arguing against what I assumed you were saying, but you weren’t. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2025, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/17 "2025-12-18T00:11:37Z")
> [@Coriolanus](#): > > If the grim reaper is doing the job, let it be before his third term starts so this counts as Vance’s first term and he can only (yet hopefully not) get elected once more. Every additional MAGA term would take a big additional chunk out of the rule of law. [Here is frontrunner JD Vance](https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/J.D._Vance): > [@](#): > > I think that what Trump should do, like if I was giving him one piece of advice, fire every single mid-level bureaucrat, every civil servant in the administrative state, replace them with our people, and when the courts - because you will get taken to court - and then when the courts stop you, stand before the country like Andrew Jackson did and say: the Chief Justice has made his ruling, now let him enforce it. A guy like that is not going to by held back by a two-term parchment promise. He’ll (probably) be held back if defeated at the polls in 2028, because MAGA doesn’t have enough of a solid hold on the government’s civil and military personnel. But if he wins next year, he will, from his POV, remedy that, as can be discerned in the last quotation above. Americans are taught that we have a stable form of government due to the checks and balances of three branches of government. At least, that’s what they taught me in 1970’s high school civics. But that only works when the top levels of government are more loyal to the prerogatives of their branch than to their party and/or we have a president who believes in rule of law. At least on the GOP side, that is mostly gone. We are now like other presidential republics, which is why I post with examples from Latin America and Africa, rather than with example from back when the U.S. was a happy small-d democratic outlier.among presidential republics. P.S. Now I go back to reading about [why it won’t matter anyway](https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22846896442&gbraid=0AAAAAD2uvfXOA9ODdHo-KadyWAWqcAA9v&gclid=Cj0KCQiAxonKBhC1ARIsAIHq_lvj8IqMGBpd6L6EthRvvKQmrq_jQZVw_pxWnUgkZ6vr9H9osPyetJQaAlSPEALw_wcB). ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2025, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/18 "2025-12-18T00:49:12Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > And then the Supreme Court says, no, put him back on, and they do. > > We know with certainty because we’ve already seen it happen. Yes, and for this reason and this reason only- **[In an unsigned opinion](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-719_19m2.pdf)**, _a majority of the justices held that only Congress – and not the states – can enforce Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which was enacted in the wake of the Civil War to disqualify individuals from holding office who had previously served in the federal or state government before the war but then supported the Confederacy, against candidates for federal offices._ _But before disqualifying someone under Section 3, the justices observed, there must be a determination that the provision actually applies to that person. And Section 5 of the 14th Amendment gives the power to make that determination to Congress, by authorizing it to pass “appropriate legislation” to “enforce” the 14th Amendment. Nothing in the 14th Amendment, the court stressed, gives states the power to enforce Section 3 against candidates for federal office, nor was there any history of states doing so in the years after the amendment was ratified._ So, that is not the 22nd amendment > [@Atamasama](#): > > But as a hypothetical, it _could_ happen. Nope.. > [@Smapti](#): > > _On the basis of being guilty of insurrection_, not in general. The federal government hasn’t determined Cenl Uygur to be ineligible, yet the Supreme Court didn’t stop states from refusing to list him. Right. Not a natural born citizen. ---
**Author:** ![Coriolanus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coriolanus/32/18769_2.png) [@Coriolanus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Coriolanus)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2025, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/19 "2025-12-18T01:32:24Z")
Right with you. Where did this come from? I guess my naive reckoning was SCOTUS chooses first what they feel like hearing, then hears it, and rules on it. Did some state like Colorado ask SCOTUS to permit them to disqualify trump from the ballot, and SCOTUS said, “How dare you! Don’t try to disqualify him else we’ll send out our army to enforce the electoral law!!” I really want states to defy scatterbrained SCOTUS rulings like this. Send out the SCOTUS armies! Have they given up? Then Roberts and his cohorts - every one of the nine mortal men or women - are irrelevant to the states. They are Trump’s **wraiths**. “United States” is a fallacy now. We need to craft the dividing lines. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2025, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771/20 "2025-12-18T01:44:24Z")
> [@Coriolanus](#): > > “United States” is a fallacy now. We need to craft the dividing lines. Will not work. There are a lot more brutal dictatorships than countries that break up. The only way to stop a 2028 Republican presidential nomination frontrunner from getting another MAGA term is to defeat them at the polls. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-republican-presidential-nomination-in-2028/1025771.md?page=2)