# Fuck it, I'm counting my chickens **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [October 27, 2008, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754 "2008-10-27T13:46:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![control-z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/eada6e/32.png) [@control-z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/control-z)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/21 "2008-10-28T18:43:38Z")
I don’t see it, I think McCain has a very good chance of winning. I think much of the country isn’t really ready for President Obama. ---
**Author:** ![KneadToKnow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kneadtoknow/32/3999_2.png) [@KneadToKnow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KneadToKnow)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/22 "2008-10-28T18:52:20Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Jinxes aren’t real, people. It’s time to stop acting like Red Sox fans and accept the obvious: Obama is going to win unless something astonishing, on the level of a meteor hitting him, takes place. My apologies if being in the driver’s seat makes people uncomfortable or if the prospect of really getting what you have hoped for is actually a bit scary, but the facts are pretty one-sided here. Obama has a big lead, and McCain has tried everything he could think of to close the gap- to no effect. If anything the race is getting further out of his hands. > > I don’t know what’s with this crap about chickens anyway. Is anyone here thinking about not voting just because this one doesn’t look very close? I think not. It’s not about a jinx, **Marley23**. I think Tim Robbins put it very well on Bill Maher last week: it’s about _complacency_. If Obama supporters all go, “Oh, it’s in the bag, it will take a meteor hitting him to lose,” then _they might not bother to actually go vote for him_. It’s the reverse of Eddie Murphy’s drunk-people-voting-for-Jesse-Jackson routine: Obama supporters staying home, celebrating only to find out, to paraphrase Eddie, “He f&cking _lost_?” ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/23 "2008-10-28T18:53:55Z")
> [@control-z](#): > > I don’t see it, I think McCain has a very good chance of winning. Not according to most pollsters. [Fivethirtyeight.com](http://Fivethirtyeight.com) has him at 3.3% right now, and he’s been lower than 10% for a while. > [@control-z](#): > > I think much of the country isn’t really ready for President Obama. I’d say that everybody voting for him is, and a lot of people who aren’t voting for him are doing so not because they don’t want a black man to be President, but because they prefer McCain’s positions. ---
**Author:** ![Skald\_the\_Rhymer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Skald\_the\_Rhymer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skald_the_Rhymer)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/24 "2008-10-28T19:00:23Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Jinxes aren’t real, people. It’s time to stop acting like Red Sox fans and accept the obvious: Obama is going to win unless something astonishing, on the level of a meteor hitting him, takes place. Being the great big nerd that I am, I don’t believe in jinxes. I do believe in the electorate stupidly letting its will be frustrated because of complacency. ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/25 "2008-10-28T19:04:29Z")
> [@KneadToKnow](#): > > It’s not about a jinx, **Marley23**. I think Tim Robbins put it very well on Bill Maher last week: it’s about _complacency_. If Obama supporters all go, “Oh, it’s in the bag, it will take a meteor hitting him to lose,” then _they might not bother to actually go vote for him_. It’s the reverse of Eddie Murphy’s drunk-people-voting-for-Jesse-Jackson routine: Obama supporters staying home, celebrating only to find out, to paraphrase Eddie, “He f&cking _lost_?” I’m a firm believer in the “people want to be part of history” theory. Even if Obama supporters think it’s in the bag, they want to be able to say “I voted for Barack Obama.” The early voting numbers prove this. The only people that won’t bother were never really counted in the polls as Obama supporters anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Celyn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9dc877/32.png) [@Celyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Celyn)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/26 "2008-10-28T19:51:27Z")
If all goes well, this will be a more enjoyable U.S. election result to read about than the last two were. 🙂 Vote, though. I still tend to feel that people have fought and died for the right to vote, so it’s important. (Ach, all right, I _suppose_ there’s a concomitant right to choose not to vote too. 😃 ) (Yes, I’m foreign. All right, I suppose it’s not my business. I can still hope for someone not too scary, though. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Bootis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e8c25b/32.png) [@Bootis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootis)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/27 "2008-10-28T20:39:07Z")
> [@Rack-a-Bones](#): > > Also, what is up with Obama buying up 30min of network air time? Seems a highly pompous and stupid thing to do. This has backfire potential written all over it and Thursday morning the polls could easily show chickens back in McCain’s basket. > > \*\*said I’ve mentioned this before but was disagreed with. I stand by my opinion. I hate this move. It seems beyond stupid to me. McCain is already using it in his rallies. Why do ANYTHING unorthodox at the end of a game with a lead? The impacts of the potential negatives FAR outweigh the impacts of the potential gains. And there are so many potential negatives- 1) The public in general is turned off by bias. A half hour show on network tv in prime time has the chance to be seen by the public as blatant media bias. 2) People don’t like commercials. It was pointed out to me before that people may not like commercials, but commercials work- true, but they work when they are done in the accepted expected format. you dont see half hour commercials on network tv. A half hour Obama infomercial may win people over, but IMO will turn people off as well. With a lead, there is absolutely no reason to risk losing support tyrying to gain a little more. 3) World Series- ok, I don’t care if people don’t think this matters at all. Why the HELL didn’t they at least cut the damn commercial by 5 minutes so it wouldn’t be an issue to be talked about in the first place? There’s a freaking florida team playing. McCain is using the world series delay against Obama. Why give them that ? WHY??? ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/28 "2008-10-28T21:06:46Z")
> [@Bootis](#): > > Why give them that ? WHY??? Trust his judgement. David Plouffe has been right the entire campaign for more than 2 years. Anyone who tunes into that broadcast will not come away from it thinking they shouldn’t vote for the man all of a sudden. Chill. ---
**Author:** ![Rack-a-Bones](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/77aa72/32.png) [@Rack-a-Bones](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rack-a-Bones)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/29 "2008-10-28T21:17:18Z")
> [@Phlosphr](#): > > Trust his judgement. David Plouffe has been right the entire campaign for more than 2 years. Anyone who tunes into that broadcast will not come away from it thinking they shouldn’t vote for the man all of a sudden. Chill. I hope I am very, very wrong but I see more downsides than upsides to this move. FTR: I’m in Obama’s camp, but I still don’t like this. ---
**Author:** ![Gala\_Matrix\_Fire](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/4da419/32.png) [@Gala\_Matrix\_Fire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gala_Matrix_Fire)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/30 "2008-10-28T21:30:33Z")
Obama’s 30-minute commercial reminds me of a time, way back when… I was a waitress and I never gave out my phone number to anyone who asked for it. But one day, in a moment of weakness, I gave my phone number to this one guy who seemed okay. My fellow waitrons encouraged me. So I did. We agreed to go out on a date about a week later. A few days went by, and I thought to myself, “I barely know that guy. There’s no way I’m going out with him. I’ll just tell him I’m sick (because back then I was afraid of confrontation) or something.” He called me the night before our supposed date, saying that it occurred to him that I would probably back out of our date because, after all, I didn’t know him. He said to himself, “I better give her a call, or she’s going to back out.” And he was 100% right. So he eased all my fears during that phone call and we went on our date. That’s how I see Obama’s 30-minute ad tomorrow. Obama hasn’t made a misstep yet. I think he’s doing the right thing. ---
**Author:** ![Bootis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e8c25b/32.png) [@Bootis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootis)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/31 "2008-10-28T21:45:35Z")
> [@Gala\_Matrix\_Fire](#): > > fears during that phone call and we went on our date. > That’s how I see Obama’s 30-minute ad tomorrow. > > Obama hasn’t made a misstep yet. I think he’s doing the right thing. But would he have eased your fears any less if he talked to you for 25 minutes instead of 30? I just don’t get why they didn’t decide to cut a few minutes, if just to eliminate overblown uproar they _knew_ a desperate McCain camp would try to create. ---
**Author:** ![control-z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/eada6e/32.png) [@control-z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/control-z)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/32 "2008-10-28T21:59:21Z")
I’m watching Pushing Daisies, ABC has decided not to run the electionmercial. ---
**Author:** ![Rack-a-Bones](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/77aa72/32.png) [@Rack-a-Bones](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rack-a-Bones)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/33 "2008-10-28T22:21:18Z")
> [@Gala\_Matrix\_Fire](#): > > Obama’s 30-minute commercial reminds me of a time, way back when… > > I was a waitress and I never gave out my phone number to anyone who asked for it. But one day, in a moment of weakness, I gave my phone number to this one guy who seemed okay. My fellow waitrons encouraged me. So I did. We agreed to go out on a date about a week later. A few days went by, and I thought to myself, “I barely know that guy. There’s no way I’m going out with him. I’ll just tell him I’m sick (because back then I was afraid of confrontation) or something.” > He called me the night before our supposed date, saying that it occurred to him that I would probably back out of our date because, after all, I didn’t know him. He said to himself, “I better give her a call, or she’s going to back out.” And he was 100% right. > So he eased all my fears during that phone call and we went on our date. > That’s how I see Obama’s 30-minute ad tomorrow. > > Obama hasn’t made a misstep yet. I think he’s doing the right thing. To me the politicomercial just goes against his very own advice of not getting too cocky. FWIW **Bootis** , I don’t see anyone caring if the WS starts 5 min late. Or if they even start late at all. FOX isn’t airing the special as far as I know. **Gala Matrix Fire** and **Phlosphr** you’ve eased my fears a little, I just don’t think it is good precedent since the last person to do this was Ross Perot. ---
**Author:** ![Skald\_the\_Rhymer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Skald\_the\_Rhymer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skald_the_Rhymer)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/34 "2008-10-28T22:26:27Z")
> [@Gala\_Matrix\_Fire](#): > > Obama’s 30-minute commercial reminds me of a time, way back when… > > I was a waitress and I never gave out my phone number to anyone who asked for it. But one day, in a moment of weakness, I gave my phone number to this one guy who seemed okay. My fellow waitrons encouraged me. So I did. We agreed to go out on a date about a week later. A few days went by, and I thought to myself, “I barely know that guy. There’s no way I’m going out with him. I’ll just tell him I’m sick (because back then I was afraid of confrontation) or something.” > He called me the night before our supposed date, saying that it occurred to him that I would probably back out of our date because, after all, I didn’t know him. He said to himself, “I better give her a call, or she’s going to back out.” And he was 100% right. > So he eased all my fears during that phone call and we went on our date. > That’s how I see Obama’s 30-minute ad tomorrow. > > Obama hasn’t made a misstep yet. I think he’s doing the right thing. Also, the commercial is part of blitzing McCain and forcing him to pay defense as much as possible. Not that he’s doing much else anywhistle. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/35 "2008-10-28T22:38:15Z")
> [@Bootis](#): > > McCain is using the world series delay against Obama. Why give them that ? WHY??? Take a breath. I agree that I don’t see a lot of positive to this commercial, and it may come off as a little pompous. It’s not going to swing the election five points McCain’s way, ok? The campaign has tons of money it doesn’t even need anymore and he’s trying to reach a greater number of people. After months of seeing how effective McCain’s campaign is, why should he worry about what they’ll do with it? Nobody can make sense of what McCain’s doing at this point. Being aggressive and looking to close the deal is the right move - even if buying WS airtime is grandiose. Everybody… for my own sanity, please don’t make “chickens” the new “forked.” 😛 ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/36 "2008-10-28T22:53:31Z")
I found [Tucker Carlson’s observations](http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-21/the-pessimists-party/) wryly appropriate here: > [@](#): > > Wondering if you’re really a Democrat? Here’s a quick way to find out: Given everything the Democratic party has going for it this year—the overwhelming financial advantage, the legions of new voters, George W. Bush—do you believe the Obama campaign could still somehow, in the final moments, find a way to blow it and lose this election? > > If you answered yes, you’re a Democrat. > > Two weeks out, only the Democrats in Washington think Obama might not win. That’s not the result of a scientific study, but instead the conclusion I’ve reached after many lunches, dinners and elevator rides with DC Democrats. Against all evidence, a good number of them have convinced themselves that John McCain is going to be the next president. > > Partly this is superstition, like throwing salt over your shoulder when you spill the shaker: predictions are bad luck. But it’s also the voice of experience. > [@](#): > > No one’s more confident in Republican efficiency than Democrats. It’s almost touching, and totally unwarranted. In real life, there are no WMD: Republicans have no master plan for victory, no October Surprise. The operation is as disjointed as it looks. You’ll never convince most Democrats of that. > > Even those Democrats who understand the true, greatly weakened state of the Republican Party have grave doubts about ordinary voters. If you’ve been out to dinner in a blue state in the last six weeks, you’ve heard the argument: This is still a racist country. Once they get in the booth, they’ll never vote for a black man. It’s the Bradley Effect, etc…In other words, it only looks like 2008. Actually, it’s 1956. > > Except that it’s not. If anything, Obama’s race has been a net political asset so far. We’ll find out for sure on Election Day, but in the meantime I’d be willing to bet that Obama wins a larger proportion of white men than John Kerry did four years ago. It’s a different country than it used to be. I won’t count my chickens either, but I think he has a pretty good point… :eek: 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Invisible\_Chimp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/f05b48/32.png) [@Invisible\_Chimp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Invisible_Chimp)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/37 "2008-10-28T22:58:30Z")
I’m counting chickens. I’ve already voted for Obama. As Marley23 says, jinxes aren’t real. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/38 "2008-10-28T23:32:00Z")
[This video](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xnk9aqih8o) pretty much says it all (a cautionary tale). ---
**Author:** ![pepperlandgirl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/f17d59/32.png) [@pepperlandgirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pepperlandgirl)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2008, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/39 "2008-10-29T02:57:57Z")
Oh my god, I can’t believe that **Tucker Carlson** appears to be the voice of reason. And what’s more, I agree with him. This election just got even _more_ surreal. ---
**Author:** ![blondebear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blondebear/32/1022_2.png) [@blondebear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blondebear)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2008, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754/40 "2008-10-29T03:02:38Z")
> [@ArchiveGuy](#): > > [This video](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xnk9aqih8o) pretty much says it all (a cautionary tale). That video really hit my funnybone at work today. I laughed out loud for about 5 minutes. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-it-im-counting-my-chickens/469754.md?page=3)