# Fuck scratch-off lottery tickets **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [October 6, 2015, 7:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693 "2015-10-06T07:35:52Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/61 "2015-10-06T15:16:35Z")
> [@brovolone](#): > > Are you saying I should’ve gotten more than $2? I’ll calculate the expect return in a moment, but, no, there is no “should have.” The best you can say with expected returns is that in the _long run_ you will average winning back X amount of money for a dollar played. Anything can happen in the short term including, like my cousin, hitting two jackpots back to back on slot machines next to each other at the cousin or, more like me, putting in fifty bucks and walking out with zero on a machine which, in the long run, pays back something like $0.95 for ever dollar played. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/62 "2015-10-06T15:21:23Z")
OK, using the Florida Lottery’s $1 Money Tree game as an example, I’m getting an expected return of $0.625 for every $1 played. This sounds about right from what I know of scratch-off tickets–they tend to be in the $0.60-$0.65 range of returns. ---
**Author:** ![brovolone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a88e4f/32.png) [@brovolone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brovolone)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/63 "2015-10-06T15:23:44Z")
Expected value. My stats class is coming back to me. Lesson learned: don’t complain about losing a game I can’t win ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/64 "2015-10-06T15:24:26Z")
[QUOTE=pulykamell] at the cousin or [/quote] That should be “at the casino,” of course. That said, while my cousin did get lucky hitting two long odds back-to-back, I have no idea how much money lifetime he has spent at the casino. It’s definitely orders of magnitude more than me (I’ve probably well under $500 in casino, lottery, scratch-off, slots gambling in my life. If you include cards with friends and other social betting games, under $1000.) ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/65 "2015-10-06T15:24:28Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > > [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > > > You’re in Florida, right? I just checked the website for the odds on the one-dollar scratch-off games. The odds varied, but they were around 1-in-4.96. In other words, for every five bucks you spend, you might expect to get a dollar back. You’re never going to get close to breaking even. > > Well, that’s not quite it. It’s 1 in 5 that you’ll get at least a buck (the lowest prize) back. For the actual expected return/house edge, you’d need to calculate out the odds and prizes. Here’s the full list of odds for the particular game I looked up: > [@](#): > > Odds of Winnings > Prize Amount Odds of Winning > $3,000.00 1-in-120000.0 > $200.00 1-in-24000.0 > $100.00 1-in-3000.0 > $50.00 1-in-4800.0 > $40.00 1-in-3870.97 > $30.00 1-in-1714.29 > $20.00 1-in-300.0 > $15.00 1-in-300.0 > $10.00 1-in-150.0 > $5.00 1-in-300.0 > $4.00 1-in-42.86 > $2.00 1-in-15.0 > $1.00 1-in-10.71 > Overall Odds: 1-in-4.96 I don’t think what I stated was incorrect. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/66 "2015-10-06T15:27:30Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > Here’s the full list of odds for the particular game I looked up: > I don’t think what I stated was incorrect. I suppose it’s a matter of how you interpret the statement. In the long run, for every $5 you put into the game, you will average $3.13 in winnings. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/67 "2015-10-06T15:31:25Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I suppose it’s a matter of how you interpret the statement. In the long run, for every $5 you put into the game, you will average $3.13 in winnings. That’s pretty long run to achieve that return. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/68 "2015-10-06T15:33:23Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > That’s pretty long run to achieve that return. But that’s, IMHO, a more precise way of looking at it. The odds of winning a buck are shy of 1 in 11. There’s a marked difference between the overall odds of 1 in 5 and 1 in 11, and that gap is filled by all the wins over a buck. Those need to be taken into account if you’re thinking in terms of expected value. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/69 "2015-10-06T15:41:50Z")
Or, look at it this way. In any game you have a 20.16% chance of winning a prize. Overall, 9.34% chance is in winning a dollar. Your chances of winning more than a dollar are actually higher than winning just a dollar. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/70 "2015-10-06T15:56:13Z")
Lottery: A tax on people who are bad at math. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/71 "2015-10-06T15:58:17Z")
_ **I profited by $800 in last month’s lottery!!** _🙂 😃 Yippee! If I’d bought $1000 worth of tickets I’d have probably got about $200 back. But I didn’t! I bought zero tickets instead, for a net $800 profit. Next month I plan to profit by $1600. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/72 "2015-10-06T16:02:13Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > Lottery: A tax on people who are bad at math. Internet cliches: a trap for people who are bad writing their own gotchas. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/73 "2015-10-06T16:04:19Z")
> [@Sicks\_Ate](#): > > If your state lottery functions like mine, you can actually go to their website and look up each scratcher game. > > It will TELL you how many tickets remain, and what prizes have been claimed. > > So really, you can improve your odds a bit by playing games with fewer remaining tickets and more unclaimed prizes. > > Likewise, you can see if that million- dollar prize has been found and not play that game. So in theory, you could watch for a situation where the remaining prizes are worth more than the cost of the remaining tickets and then buy them all. Of course, in the real world, you’d have to travel the state buying out every convenience store’s stock (while somehow not buying into the next run of tickets) while others are trying to do the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![brovolone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a88e4f/32.png) [@brovolone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brovolone)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/74 "2015-10-06T16:07:39Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Internet cliches: a trap for people who are bad writing their own gotchas. You win the internet. Furthermore, give yourself a slice of Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/75 "2015-10-06T16:10:44Z")
> [@davidm](#): > > So in theory, you could watch for a situation where the remaining prizes are worth more than the cost of the remaining tickets and then buy them all. Yeah, lottery pools have done something like this with lotto jackpots, where they try to buy up every combination possible when the expected value is over 100%. (With lotto, there are some twists to this, one being buying a large enough pool of tickets, and two the possibility of splitting the prize with multiple winners.) ---
**Author:** ![GreenElf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9de053/32.png) [@GreenElf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenElf)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/76 "2015-10-06T16:31:01Z")
> [@Princhester](#): > > I’m sorry, what does this mean exactly? What does “hold your losses to a reasonable amount” mean? How does one do this? Wish real hard? Or just not buy many tickets? What is a good and what is a bad way to give yourself a chance at being rich. None of the various forms of gambling give you a good chance - in the sense of a high probability. And your second sentence simply means if you gamble less, you’ll lose less doesn’t it? Simply your loss rate is a lot less on scratch tickets, keno, etc. than slot machines due to less play, even though slot machines usually have a higher payback %, provided you spend a small amount at a time such as a few dollars per month on scratch tickets. Most people want to sit down and play for awhile when they play slot machines, so they’re putting more money into it. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/77 "2015-10-06T16:50:39Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > Yeah, lottery pools have done something like this with lotto jackpots, where they try to buy up every combination possible when the expected value is over 100%. (With lotto, there are some twists to this, one being buying a large enough pool of tickets, and two the possibility of splitting the prize with multiple winners.) Right, but of course that’s different from scratch-offs. Given enough manpower (and cash) you can buy every number in a lotto. Buying up every remaining scratch-off would be much more difficult, if not impossible. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/78 "2015-10-06T16:54:47Z")
> [@davidm](#): > > Right, but of course that’s different from scratch-offs. Given enough manpower (and cash) you can buy every number in a lotto. Buying up every remaining scratch-off would be much more difficult, if not impossible. Indeed. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone somewhere has tried to do it, though. Folks are crafty that way. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![quimper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/7c8e57/32.png) [@quimper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/quimper)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/79 "2015-10-06T17:53:43Z")
> [@davidm](#): > > Buying up every remaining scratch-off would be much more difficult, if not impossible. Not all state lotteries are designed by geniuses. In fact, some appear to have been designed by total idiots. Here’s an example of a scratch game with a serious flaw > **[Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code](https://www.wired.com/2011/01/cracking-the-scratch-lottery-code/)** > > In some scratch lottery games, it's not that hard to beat the odds. Is this a new way for the Mob to launder money? Another recent one where MIT-student-founded ‘Random Investment Strategies’ :rolleyes: exploited a huge (and 100% legal) loophole > **[MIT students scammed Massachusetts State Lottery for $8 million: report](https://www.nydailynews.com/2012/08/03/mit-students-scammed-massachusetts-state-lottery-for-8-million-report/)** > > Maybe MIT should stand for “muggers in training.” Ten years after a group of Massachusetts Institute of Technology students and a professor famously took Las Vegas casinos to the cleane… Anecdotally, for the past few years I’ve bought 50+ scratch tickets to distribute to friends and family at our annual Lunar New Year banquet. I think we’ve won less than $20 in the past 3 years. ---
**Author:** ![Rigamarole](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/77aa72/32.png) [@Rigamarole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rigamarole)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693/80 "2015-10-06T18:02:47Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > Indeed. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone somewhere has tried to do it, though. Folks are crafty that way. 🙂 They wouldn’t though, because the expected value of a scratch-off ticket is never higher than the face value, so it would always be a losing proposition. With progressive, parimutuel jackpots though the EV can occasionally rise above the face value of the ticket when the jackpot gets high enough. One could almost see it as a reasonable investment at that point, which is what the poolers would essentially be doing when they buy out every combination. Of course, the (huge) risk at that point is potentially having to share the jackpot if there ends up being more than one winner, which would completely crush the investment value. Interestingly, they just changed Powerball effective on the next draw (tomorrow, 10/7/15) to drastically reduce the odds of winning the jackpot. It used to be a 1 in 176 million chance to win the jackpot, and with the new number ranges it will only be a 1 in 293 million chance. The lottery people are trying to sell it as a change that gives people “more chances to win” because the chance of winning any of the small prizes goes up from 1 in 31.85 to 1 in 24.87. But now the jackpot would have to exceed almost $600 million in order for the EV of a ticket to be positive, and we may never see that happen again, at least with Powerball (highest ever jackpot was $590 million). And of course this isn’t even beginning to account for A: taxes and B: the big reduction in what they actually pay out for a cash option vs. annuity. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fuck-scratch-off-lottery-tickets/733693.md?page=5)