# GA special election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 28, 2017, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575 "2017-05-28T02:22:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/1 "2017-05-28T02:22:19Z")
I just took my PredictIt winnings from Gianforte’s victory and bought HANDEL.GA06.2017 shares at 42 cents. That is: I predict, with not just a voice but real world money, that Handel beats Ossuff. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/2 "2017-05-28T04:46:28Z")
I was mildly surprised to see Ossuf has a slight lead in the polls. But it looks like the undecideds are still are a large factor and given the district make-up I’d assume a sizeable break towards any Republican candidate on election day. Especially in a run-off. I imagine your bet is more of a risk than the recent Montana special election, but still probably a safeish call. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 10:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/3 "2017-05-28T10:37:45Z")
I predict that I will be the first person in this thread to correctly spell “Ossoff.” ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/4 "2017-05-28T12:02:17Z")
Anyone who knows the GA 6th is not going to give great odds on Ossoff. He’s got a lot of momentum in the little purple corner in the southwest, but the rest of the district is intractably red and very politically engaged. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/5 "2017-05-28T12:08:52Z")
42 cents is a good deal in a district with huge GOP advantage. I’d take that bet too. But if the question is just 50/50, I might lean Ossoff. Kicking 14 million people off health insurance is pretty unpopular. ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/6 "2017-05-28T15:31:16Z")
The latest poll, and the first taken since this whole Russia thing really hit the fan, has Ossoff ahead 51% vs. 44%. > **[2017 Georgia's 6th congressional district special election | Polling](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia%27s_6th_congressional_district_special_election,_2017#Polling_2)** > > On June 20, 2017, Ossoff was defeated by Handel, 51.87% to 48.13%. Following reports of the election results, The New York Times characterized the race as "demoralizing for Democrats". This was as close as a Democrat had come to winning this district since it assumed its current configuration as a northern suburban district in 1992; previously, Democratic challengers had only won more than 40 percent of the vote twice. Handel later lost re-election to a full term on November 6, 2018, to ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/7 "2017-05-28T15:39:00Z")
> [@VinylTurnip](#): > > I predict that I will be the first person in this thread to correctly spell “Ossoff.” You win. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![race\_to\_the\_bottom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c4cdca/32.png) [@race\_to\_the\_bottom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/race_to_the_bottom)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/8 "2017-05-31T04:24:21Z")
The Republicans won the seat in Montana 50/44, but they won the [same seat last year 56/40](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Montana,_2016) The special election in Kansas had the same character. If the election in Georgia, another “safe” seat is close it could mean that other, more competitive seats won by Republicans last year could flip next year. We shall see. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/9 "2017-05-31T12:45:48Z")
Well, early voting opened yesterday and I waited in line for 10 minutes. I’ve never seen a line for early voting in a midterm election, let alone a runoff for a special election. Not sure what to make of that, but the turnout sure seems exceptional. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/10 "2017-05-31T14:42:53Z")
> [@race\_to\_the\_bottom](#): > > The Republicans won the seat in Montana 50/44, but they won the [same seat last year 56/40](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Montana,_2016) > > The special election in Kansas had the same character. If the election in Georgia, another “safe” seat is close it could mean that other, more competitive seats won by Republicans last year could flip next year. We shall see. The only way that this won’t lead to a massive shift is if the closeness of these elections was due to lack of name recognition between two non-incumbents, and that wasn’t a factor in the Montana election. I don’t think that the blue side is going to get _less_ outraged over the next year, but it’s possible that Republicans will still turn out to support _their_ swamp creature even if they’re not enthusiastic about anyone else in Washington. ---
**Author:** ![Nametag](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nametag/32/406_2.png) [@Nametag](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nametag)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2017, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/11 "2017-06-04T21:48:12Z")
I am really amazed by Handel’s lead in this election. I know Georgia isn’t all Religious Right, but I wasn’t really expecting a Baroque composer to be so popular. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2017, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/12 "2017-06-05T12:57:21Z")
> [@race\_to\_the\_bottom](#): > > The Republicans won the seat in Montana 50/44, but they won the [same seat last year 56/40](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Montana,_2016) Gianforte ran in November 2016 for statewide office, and lost 50-46. So he actually gained votes in just six months. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2017, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/13 "2017-06-05T13:48:11Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > Gianforte ran in November 2016 for statewide office, and lost 50-46. So he actually gained votes in just six months. Yes! Everything is going Republicans’ way, and they just need to keep doing what they’re doing for guaranteed success. Keep on Trumpin’! ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2017, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/14 "2017-06-05T13:52:06Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Yes! Everything is going Republicans’ way, and they just need to keep doing what they’re doing for guaranteed success. It certainly seems to be. Presidency, Senate, House, governors, and statehouses. ---
**Author:** ![Superdude](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/superdude/32/13450_2.png) [@Superdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superdude)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2017, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/15 "2017-06-05T14:04:04Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > It certainly seems to be. Presidency, Senate, House, governors, and statehouses. Your partisanship is blinding you to the growing grassroots movements that show exactly how badly things are going for the GOP. And how unpopular they’re becoming. I’m not predicting a major change at midterms, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility, either. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2017, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/16 "2017-06-05T14:29:28Z")
> [@Superdude](#): > > Your partisanship is blinding you to the growing grassroots movements that show exactly how badly things are going for the GOP. And how unpopular they’re becoming. I’m not predicting a major change at midterms, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility, either. Fivethirtyeight says [Democrats are overperforming in special elections almost everywhere](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-are-overperforming-in-special-elections-almost-everywhere/). > [@](#): > > [O]verall, the trend is clear. Democratic special-election candidates have improved their margins over Republicans relative to their district’s partisan lean by an average of 14.4 percentage points. This pattern has popped up in districts from rural Minnesota to the suburbs of Atlanta to the Black Belt of Louisiana. In two instances (New Hampshire House District Carroll 6 and New York Assembly District 9), the shift was enough to flip the seat from red to blue. As Trump himself might say, “There’s something going on.” > … > [L]egislative special elections aren’t good only for predicting who will control the House of Representatives in two years. They’re also leading indicators of future gubernatorial and — get this — state legislative results. If nothing else, 2017’s legislative elections so far put Democrats on track to make big gains in statehouses across the country in 2018 — the sector of government where the party suffered the most during the Obama years. That’s important because the next round of redistricting is less than four years away, meaning 2018 will decide many of the governors and legislators who will draw the congressional districts of the 2020s. From the smallest of small elections on a random Tuesday in this odd year, clues are being dropped about who might hold the balance of power in Washington for the next decade or more. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2017, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/17 "2017-06-05T15:30:34Z")
> [@Superdude](#): > > Your partisanship is blinding you to the growing grassroots movements that show exactly how badly things are going for the GOP. And how unpopular they’re becoming. My partisanship? That’s funny, coming from someone on your side of the (SDMB) aisle. One of your fellow travelers predicted that not only would Clinton win, but the Dems would take back the House and Senate in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2017, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/18 "2017-06-05T15:38:36Z")
The SDMB: We can tell which party will control things for the next few years by the fact that Democrats are losing by a lot less than they usually do! Republicans: We can tell which party will control things for the next few years by the fact that Democrats are losing. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2017, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/19 "2017-06-05T16:37:54Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > The SDMB: We can tell which party will control things for the next few years by the fact that Democrats are losing by a lot less than they usually do! > > Republicans: We can tell which party will control things for the next few years by the fact that Democrats are losing. > > Regards, > Shodan Are you saying the Republicans will still control the House after 2018? I’m certainly not willing to make a prediction at this time. If you’re not saying this, is this just another generic “Republicans=smart, SDMB/Democrats=dumb” post? ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2017, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/20 "2017-06-05T16:56:55Z")
What do you call a Democrat who loses an election by a smaller margin than usual? Hint: you do not call him “Congressman”. Regards, Shodan [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575.md?page=2)