# GA special election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 28, 2017, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575 "2017-05-28T02:22:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/181 "2017-06-21T12:07:44Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Here on the SDMB I have a winning record too. Here, of course, many of the most confident talkers are those most piously opposed to gambling. I hope you’re not including me in that. I find confident predictions on either side–especially, but not only, those buttressed with smirking references to gambling records–suspicious, and I do my best to shy away from them, using weasel words to a fault. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/182 "2017-06-21T12:10:45Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > They need to go out and sell a message to the construction worker or the guy who owns his own 3 or 4-employee plumbing business, too. I’m guessing by now that most of us have seen [Randy Bryce’s ad challenging Paul Ryan’s seat](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6zAyPRbels). If you haven’t, I think it’s very close to exactly what Democrats should be doing in states that went for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/183 "2017-06-21T12:33:36Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > I’m guessing by now that most of us have seen [Randy Bryce’s ad challenging Paul Ryan’s seat](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6zAyPRbels). If you haven’t, I think it’s very close to exactly what Democrats should be doing in states that went for Trump. Yes and no. It’s a great ad. The thing is that Bryce’s job is with his union, as a political coordinator. I think his image is going to rest more with his previous work as an iron worker. If he can focus the narrative on that, and on his outsider status, he’s got a great message. Of course, he lost two prior state office races, but that’s valuable experience for a run at Congress. At present, I wouldn’t place any wagers either way. But stay tuned. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/184 "2017-06-21T12:43:21Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > The thing is that Bryce’s job is with his union, as a political coordinator. I think his image is going to rest more with his previous work as an iron worker. If he can focus the narrative on that, and on his outsider status, he’s got a great message. Of course, he lost two prior state office races, but that’s valuable experience for a run at Congress. I didn’t know any of that–helpful information. Thanks! > [@](#): > > At present, I wouldn’t place any wagers either way. But stay tuned. With respect, I’ll pass; what you wager isn’t what I call helpful information, and were it up to me would be in the thread games forum. But as long as there’s other helpful information, I’ll keep reading! ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/185 "2017-06-21T12:47:29Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Do I ever! > > An aggregate summary: I have had $3350 in action in political prediction bets since 2008. Counting the Ossoff election as a done deal, I will have won $9890 – that is, I have $9890 more than I started with. That’s not retirement money, I grant. But it’s fair to call it consistent winning. > > This does not include non-monetary bets (“If you lose, you have to keep a humiliating sig for six months,” type stakes.) And it does not include non-political bets. > > Notably, it includes plenty of bets in favor of propositions I don’t personally favor. That is, I don’t in the least shy away from wagering “Yes,” on an outcome I strongly disfavor. Well, I’m proud of you for being able to monetize a win by as horrible person as Karen Handel is. Congratulations. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/186 "2017-06-21T12:55:46Z")
[Silver’s postmortem on last night’s elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-can-democrats-win-georgia-6-ossoff-handel/). I find very little there to disagree with. > [@Silver](#): > > The results simultaneously suggest that an impressively wide array of Republican-held seats might be competitive next year — perhaps as many as 60 to 80 — and that Democrats are outright favorites in only a fraction of these, perhaps no more than a dozen. To some extent, this configuration is a result of Republican-led gerrymandering in 2010. Republicans drew a lot of districts where their members are safe under normal conditions, but not in the event of a massive midterm wave. > > In order to win a net of 24 seats next year — enough to flip the House — Democrats may therefore need to target dozens of Republican-held seats and see where the chips fall. They can variously attempt anti-Trump, anti-Republican or anti-incumbent messages depending on the district. > … > In that sense, Tuesday night poses the biggest risk to Democrats if it discourages them from recruiting quality candidates and providing them with enough money to run credible campaigns in districts as diverse as Georgia 6, South Carolina 5 and Montana. And the biggest risk to Republicans will be if they get too caught up in the narrative and ignore that the results in special elections so far indicate a lot of downside risk for the GOP next year. Edit: okay, one thing that I disagree with is the line I just underlined. I really, really want Democrats to have a clear, positive platform similar to Gingrich’s Contract On America from 1994. We can do that. It should sound notes very similar to those in Bryce’s ad. Try different anti-strategies, sure, but also try adhering to a strong set of progressive economic principles. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/187 "2017-06-21T12:56:31Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **Gyrate** : > > People in “backwards” districts don’t vote right-wing because of some weird genetic quirk; they live in bubbles of mutually-reinforcing views just like everyone else. Can we please stop with this notion that both sides live in bubbles? Yes, it’s true that the typical liberal is surrounded by more liberals than the typical conservative is. But it’s also true that the typical liberal is surrounded by more conservatives than the typical conservative is. The bluest county in Ohio, for instance, contains ten times as many Trump voters as the reddest county in Ohio ([cite](http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/ohio/)), so if we consider “people in the same county” to be a rough representative of the set of people a person will interact with face-to-face, that means that Cuyahogans interact with about ten times as many Trump voters as Mercerites will. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/188 "2017-06-21T13:14:28Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Well, I’m proud of you for being able to monetize a win by as horrible person as Karen Handel is. Congratulations. Thank you. Obviously, I don’t agree she’s horrible, and even if I did, I can still accurately predict events concerning horrible people. I’m not blinded to reality by my view of their moral standing. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/189 "2017-06-21T13:14:30Z")
Control of the Congress is going to depend a lot on the 900 pound gorilla, Bob Mueller’s investigation. Should Twitler be impeached, that is going to piss off his voters big time. Will they be more energized than ever to vote for everything red with an R next to it? Or will they just say screw it and start sitting out elections? Would a Pence pardon be as big a losing proposition as it was for Gerry Ford? If it turns out the Donald actively conspired with Russia to rig the election and/or offered a quid pro quo (legitimizing Crimea for the presidency), will that be what finally wakes up his cult members? Tell me which way the investigation goes and I’ll tell you how the election goes. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/190 "2017-06-21T13:20:42Z")
I think on the whole it’s a pretty good win for the Republicans. Not in the sense that the Republicans got anything, but in the sense that they avoided what would have been a big Democratic win had they lost. As above, had the Democrats won, their supporters would have been energized all over the country, which would have helped them with candidate & volunteer recruitment as well as fundraising. As it is, not much, if at all. What you’re left with is Democrats spinning like mad about how they never expected to win etc. etc., as you see in this thread. Something, but not remotely comparable to actually winning. The only downer, from my perspective, is that I feel that the Republicans need to chuck Trump sooner rather than later, and this result may encourage them to keep their connection. Had they lost the race it would have been something of a wake-up call. > [@Bricker](#): > > My open betting market winning record is more modest, to be sure. I win about 1.5 dollars for every dollar on PredictIt. But even that market contains people betting with their hopes and not their brains. But why would you expect that PredictIt would have more people betting their hopes and not their brains on one side versus the other? I would expect that comparable bets from both sides would cancel out. Returning to an earlier unanswered question, perhaps you can share a bit of your secret sauce here. What made you so confident in this instance that the polls and the markets were wrong? ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/191 "2017-06-21T13:27:32Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Backward districts in backward states aren’t going to start voting Democratic overnight. This was not a “backward district”. The GA 6th contains some of the highest density of tech and professional workers in GA. This election was a referendum on whether the district was going to stick a thumb in Trump’s eye by having themselves represented by an unknown lightweight backed by outside money. They chose a familiar political operator who represents the kind of fiscal austerity they favor, and the national conversation over “will they become enlightened like us” certainly didn’t help anything. This is perfectly reasonable political calculus and in their best interests, though like you I disagree with the platform. Democrats do themselves no favors casually insulting potential voters as backwards, especially when you’re obviously uninformed on the constituency you’re slurring. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/192 "2017-06-21T13:47:22Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > This election was a referendum on whether the district was going to stick a thumb in Trump’s eye by having themselves represented by an unknown lightweight backed by outside money. They chose a familiar political operator who represents the kind of fiscal austerity they favor, and the national conversation over “will they become enlightened like us” certainly didn’t help anything. > > This is perfectly reasonable political calculus and in their best interests, though like you I disagree with the platform. Right. This district went for Price by over 20% in the November election, only by 1% for Trump. They were going to favor a Republican with a Republican platform rather than a “hey at least I’m not (with) Trump” type Democrat as their Representative. IMO making it a referendum on Trump to be used as an example to the rest of the country was folly; that only plays into his hand by signaling Republicans that the safe bet is to stay the (erratic) course, rather than keep their distance; and on the other side of the aisle the Intra-Dem arguments will intensify as to whether moderate centrism is useless, when really an outright progressive would have lost just the same. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/193 "2017-06-21T13:48:58Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > What you’re left with is Democrats spinning like mad about how they never expected to win etc. etc., as you see in this thread. Spinning involves dishonesty. Which posters do you believe expected Ossoff to win, and are spinning about it in this thread?[Here’s the previous thread on this election](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=819206). Nearly everyone in this thread expressed doubt about Ossoff’s victory, and in that previous thread, I double-checked my posts, and the most hopeful thing I said was that “I’m not counting chickens, but I’m also not throwing in the towel.” In other words, I think you’re misremembering what people said before the election. If you’re not, being specific would be helpful. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/194 "2017-06-21T14:25:03Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > When McConnellcare passes and the shit hits the fan, any district that isn’t blood red is going to be up for grabs and that gavel will be back in Nancy Pelosi’s hands where it belongs. This sounds like: \* “The GOP won’t take the Senate in 2014” “Trump’s nomination will sink the GOP in 2016” “The debates will destroy Trump” “The Access Hollywood tape will sink Trump’s candidacy” “The Dems will take back the Senate in 2016” “Yes, Trump won Florida and Ohio, but don’t worry, the blue wall will save the day” \* Just what is your batting average, so to speak? ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/195 "2017-06-21T14:29:31Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > Right. This district went for Price by over 20% in the November election, only by 1% for Trump. They were going to favor a Republican with a Republican platform rather than a “hey at least I’m not (with) Trump” type Democrat as their Representative. Well, I agree with that sentiment, but I do believe a Democrat could have taken this seat if it were a stronger candidate with a moderate, coherent agenda. That is the message I wish the Democrats will take away from this election. “Boo Trump” didn’t work in 2016, it’s not working in 2017, and it’s irresponsible to risk 2018 on this strategy. Run stronger candidates on a better platform. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/196 "2017-06-21T14:33:23Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Just what is your batting average, so to speak? Truth, justice, and the American way on my side: 100% ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/197 "2017-06-21T14:39:25Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > I haven’t followed this race closely but was a 30-year old documentary maker really the best candidate the Democrats had to offer ? Wasn’t there someone with greater local stature and experience available? Probably not. GA-6 is the northern suburbs of Atlanta and pretty damned Republican. Ossoff came closer than any Republican in at least 20 years to taking the seat. I’m not even sure if any of the cities in the 6th have a Democratic mayor (Doraville may sooner rather than later, but the other cities won’t). ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/198 "2017-06-21T14:42:54Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > This was not a “backward district”. The GA 6th contains some of the highest density of tech and professional workers in GA. If I remember right, CNN noted last night that, of all the districts in the country that went for Trump, this one was the best-educated. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/199 "2017-06-21T14:43:34Z")
As I recall, in the primary Ossoff got 48% of the vote, and the combined Republican field 52%. Which looks a lot like yesterday’s result, which seems to indicate that a lot of money was spent that didn’t change anyone’s party affiliation. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/200 "2017-06-21T14:48:11Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > If I remember right, CNN noted last night that, of all the districts in the country that went for Trump, this one was the best-educated. The NY Times had a graphic that the GA-6 was the 6th most educated district (in terms of % of folks with a college degree) in the entire country. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575.md?page=11)