# GA special election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 28, 2017, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575 "2017-05-28T02:22:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/201 "2017-06-21T14:48:49Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Can we please stop with this notion that both sides live in bubbles? Yes, it’s true that the typical liberal is surrounded by more liberals than the typical conservative is. But it’s also true that the typical liberal is surrounded by more conservatives than the typical conservative is. The bluest county in Ohio, for instance, contains ten times as many Trump voters as the reddest county in Ohio ([cite](http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/ohio/)), so if we consider “people in the same county” to be a rough representative of the set of people a person will interact with face-to-face, that means that Cuyahogans interact with about ten times as many Trump voters as Mercerites will. Oh, I didn’t mean to imply that all bubbles are equal. Some are much smaller and harder to penetrate than others. But consider **BobLibDem** ’s characterization of “backward districts in backward states” - it’s a cartoonish representation of a sizable portion of the country that isn’t really accurate and yet pervades a lot of left-wing thinking (subtly or otherwise). Furthermore, the idea that the other side vote the way they do purely because they’re stupid or evil isn’t particularly constructive and certainly won’t help win elections for one’s own side, even if a portion of them \*\*can \*\*be reasonably shown to be stupid and/or evil. ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/202 "2017-06-21T14:50:03Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > As I recall, in the primary Ossoff got 48% of the vote, and the combined Republican field 52%. Which looks a lot like yesterday’s result, which seems to indicate that a lot of money was spent that didn’t change anyone’s party affiliation. A lot of the pundits’ “conventional wisdom” is just bunk. Like “high turnouts favor Democrats”. The turnout in GA-06 special election yesterday was through the roof. 256,000 votes vs. the 194,000 in April. And the results are the same 52% to 48%. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/203 "2017-06-21T14:57:37Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Spinning involves dishonesty. Which posters do you believe expected Ossoff to win, and are spinning about it in this thread?[Here’s the previous thread on this election](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=819206). Nearly everyone in this thread expressed doubt about Ossoff’s victory, and in that previous thread, I double-checked my posts, and the most hopeful thing I said was that “I’m not counting chickens, but I’m also not throwing in the towel.” > > In other words, I think you’re misremembering what people said before the election. If you’re not, being specific would be helpful. I don’t recall anyone predicting that Ossoff would win. But the general consensus was that it was close to a toss-up and could go either way, with perhaps a slight edge to Handel. (Which I agreed and agree with. Also, people who devoted over $30M in campaign contributions agreed with this too, as did the betting markets.) The spin is in saying that there was never any real chance that Ossoff was going to win and the Handel victory was completely expected. If you want an instance of the changed tone for one person, compare posts #69 & #151 of this thread. But beyond any one person, the tenor has changed. The notion that this was never anything more than a longshot hope is new spin. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/204 "2017-06-21T15:08:14Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > A lot of the pundits’ “conventional wisdom” is just bunk. Like “high turnouts favor Democrats”. The turnout in GA-06 special election yesterday was through the roof. 256,000 votes vs. the 194,000 in April. And the results are the same 52% to 48%. High turnout in specific districts may or may not favor democrats, but when most pundits talk about turnout they’re frequently referring about nationwide turnout. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/205 "2017-06-21T15:12:38Z")
They’ll kick the effects of the Obamacare replacement down the road so it won’t impact 2018 anyway. Getting rid of Pelosi sounds good because she’s a _woman_ from _San Francisco_ and such an easy target for the "R"s, right? Except the next Democratic leader will get exactly the _same_ treatment and we all know it. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/206 "2017-06-21T15:13:31Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Truth, justice, and the American way on my side: 100% Many folks would be surprised to hear Trump’s election being characterized as “truth and justice” prevailing. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/207 "2017-06-21T15:26:55Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > But why would you expect that PredictIt would have more people betting their hopes and not their brains on one side versus the other? I would expect that comparable bets from both sides would cancel out. > > Returning to an earlier unanswered question, perhaps you can share a bit of your secret sauce here. What made you so confident in this instance that the polls and the markets were wrong? The comments section for the market gave me confidence. When I bought into Handel on May 27, the price was .42; this made it a good buy even if you thought the outcome was a coin flip. But the reality was that the district was strongly red to begin with, and the earlier vote diluted GOP support among multiple contenders. Just based on those fundamentals I thought it was underpriced. But the comments section posts that supported Ossuff talked about “disciplined Democratic candidate,” and “uninspiring Republican candidate;” an energized Democratic party with money and a voter base that is sick of Trump’s antics. In other words: the sense I got was that the Ossuff market was buoyed by hope, and reliance on highly subjective factors. If I have a secret sauce for winning, it’s in locating betting markets with a goodly mix of opponents who bet their desires. It’s as though they’re willing to trade the money loss at the end of the month for the 30 days of uplifting feeling they get supporting the “correct” cause. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/208 "2017-06-21T15:55:58Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I am. I’m willing to concede all the “moral victories” to the Democrats, but I confidently predict that the Speaker of the House will be a Republican in the next Congress. What odds? Predictit is 52/48 right now in favor of GOP having 218 or more seats after 2018 elections. Which is pretty close to a coin flip. ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/209 "2017-06-21T16:02:01Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > If I have a secret sauce for winning, it’s in locating betting markets with a goodly mix of opponents who bet their desires. It’s as though they’re willing to trade the money loss at the end of the month for the 30 days of uplifting feeling they get supporting the “correct” cause. A summation for why I buy lotto tickets - the correct cause at the end is me winning hundreds of millions of dollars. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/210 "2017-06-21T16:42:49Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > The comments section for the market gave me confidence. > > When I bought into Handel on May 27, the price was .42; this made it a good buy even if you thought the outcome was a coin flip. But the reality was that the district was strongly red to begin with, and the earlier vote diluted GOP support among multiple contenders. Just based on those fundamentals I thought it was underpriced. > > But the comments section posts that supported Ossuff talked about “disciplined Democratic candidate,” and “uninspiring Republican candidate;” an energized Democratic party with money and a voter base that is sick of Trump’s antics. In other words: the sense I got was that the Ossuff market was buoyed by hope, and reliance on highly subjective factors. > > If I have a secret sauce for winning, it’s in locating betting markets with a goodly mix of opponents who bet their desires. It’s as though they’re willing to trade the money loss at the end of the month for the 30 days of uplifting feeling they get supporting the “correct” cause. None of this addresses the question I was asking. You’re giving reasons for assuming that the market was mispricing Handel’s chances. So it suffices as an explanation for your investment - .42 was underpricing her. OK. But none of what you’ve written is a reason for thinking that Handel would win, in absolute. So it does not suffice as an explanation for assertion in the OP that you “_predict, with not just a voice but real world money, that Handel beats Ossuff_”. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/211 "2017-06-21T17:00:06Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > High turnout in specific districts may or may not favor democrats, but when most pundits talk about turnout they’re frequently referring about nationwide turnout. In this coming national election, I think high turnouts will favor the GOP, since Democrats will _already_ turn out since I hardly think that they will become _less_ angry at 45. So high turnout to me in next years election would mean that red and red-leaning voters support their leadership enough to come out and vote for them. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/212 "2017-06-21T17:02:31Z")
I think the result from last night that is more interesting is the result here in SC - 5. Ralph Norman ® won with 51% of the vote. For a district that was won by now-Budget Director Mick Mulvaney last fall with almost 60%, that’s a bit of a surprise. I don’t think even Archie Parnell’s polls showed it that close. And it happened with only a tiny fraction of the money spent here as was spent in GA - 6. The difference, as I see it, was that Archie Parnell actually had a decent platform, and decent background in something politics-related. He focused upon taxes in his campaign, and really didn’t try to push the “I’m not Trump” button too often. In the end, the Republican Party was reduced to sending out mailings and putting up signs that said: “Vote Republican” (literally!). They had to get out the vote from the locals who cannot stand the thought of “those people” being in power. To me, that shows where the Democratic Party can do its best work. Run a campaign that isn’t focused on being ‘not Republicans’. Bring a positive message to the campaign: “Here’s what we will do for you, the middle-income American voter.” And get rid of dinosaurs like Nancy Pelosi, who are anathema to so many, many middle-class American suburbanites and rural voters. Stop being the party of the cities and New England, and try again to be a party relevant to most of America. That’s going to take a while to sink in. Probably at least until 2020, and maybe more like 2022. But it’s a much more certain bet than just pounding the message that “Republicans and Trump are Teh Evul”. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/213 "2017-06-21T17:04:28Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Can we please stop with this notion that both sides live in bubbles? Yes, it’s true that the typical liberal is surrounded by more liberals than the typical conservative is. But it’s also true that the typical liberal is surrounded by more conservatives than the typical conservative is. The bluest county in Ohio, for instance, contains ten times as many Trump voters as the reddest county in Ohio ([cite](http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/ohio/)), so if we consider “people in the same county” to be a rough representative of the set of people a person will interact with face-to-face, that means that Cuyahogans interact with about ten times as many Trump voters as Mercerites will. I’m not sure that’s “meaningful” interaction. If a liberal encounters 10 Trump voters at the grocery store but doesn’t talk to them, only makes eye contact, that doesn’t do a thing. Many people - liberal or conservative - have Facebook social bubbles that are 80-90% people who think like them politically. And they spend hours in that bubble everyday. They can also read only news websites that reflect their views. You can live in deep-red Trumpland but still have a floating liberal social-media Internet bubble around you, or vice versa. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/214 "2017-06-21T17:13:27Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > What odds? > > Predictit is 52/48 right now in favor of GOP having 218 or more seats after 2018 elections. Which is pretty close to a coin flip. Bayesian thought makes it pretty clear you’re stupid to make a bet on this now. The conditions for the 2018 midterms aren’t set in the previous July. If Trumps “succeeds” in raising a bunch of protectionist measures in 2017, unemployment will bloat upwards, the economy will tank, and the voters will want change, making a House flip likelier. If Trump’s economic policies are thwarted by Congress, the economy might be okay in mid 2018, and then a flip is quite unlikely. Wait and see, then bet like Bricker does; find a betting market where people are betting their desires. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/215 "2017-06-21T17:17:29Z")
Also, the wild card in the case of Trump is that he has set an extraordinarily low bar for himself. If he can improve his performance to the point where he’s acting even half-normal he will look positively statesmanlike by comparison. (And the way politics works is that once you’ve absorbed criticism over something, it generally doesn’t come back to bite you once it’s part of your history.) Of course, by all indications Trump is not capable of changing anything. But you never know - again, it’s a pretty low bar. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/216 "2017-06-21T17:47:49Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > The difference, as I see it, was that Archie Parnell actually had a decent platform, and decent background in something politics-related. He focused upon taxes in his campaign, and really didn’t try to push the “I’m not Trump” button too often. In the end, the Republican Party was reduced to sending out mailings and putting up signs that said: “Vote Republican” (literally!). They had to get out the vote from the locals who cannot stand the thought of “those people” being in power. > > To me, that shows where the Democratic Party can do its best work. Run a campaign that isn’t focused on being ‘not Republicans’. Bring a positive message to the campaign: “Here’s what we will do for you, the middle-income American voter.” Agreed. I think Democrats have always had a positive platform, but they neither brand it nor emphasize it in their campaigns. Except Obama, whose “Yes we can” campaign, coupled with wonky speeches on how he’d reform health care, succeeded. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/217 "2017-06-21T17:51:30Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **Bricker** : > > It’s as though they’re willing to trade the money loss at the end of the month for the 30 days of uplifting feeling they get supporting the “correct” cause. And maybe they are. There’s more than one reason for betting, and there’s more than one reason for not betting. To you, betting is a way of communicating unambiguously what you believe actually will happen, but to another, betting might be a way of communicating unambiguously what they hope will happen. Betting on an outcome that really is unlikely, then, might not actually indicate delusion, as you suggest. Similarly, not betting might not actually indicate a lack of confidence. I’m going to make many fewer bets than you will, if for no other reason than our relative wealth. Neither of us is unwise enough to bet money that we can’t afford to lose, but you can afford to lose a lot more than I can. I also suspect that we place different values on risk: You probably place a slightly positive value on it (hence, for instance, you would enjoy a moderate amount of gambling even in a casino, where you know that the odds are against you), while I place a negative value on it (hence, I would never play any casino game). **Velocity** , certainly much of our modern interaction is in geography-blind contexts like the Internet. But there must be some geographic component as well, as a glance at any election map will show: Some places are much more biased towards one party or the other, even though they all have the same access to online interactions. And you might not have much political conversation with folks at the grocery store, but you probably will with your neighbors, and your co-workers, and with the other parents at your kids’ school, and the folks at your favored bar or other hangout, and so on. For people in urban areas (where most of the liberals are), that will mean more people of all political persuasions than for people in rural areas (where most of the conservatives are), just because it means more people total. ---
**Author:** ![Fenris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fenris/32/498_2.png) [@Fenris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fenris)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/218 "2017-06-21T18:02:55Z")
I honestly don’t understand the Dem strategy with regards to this special election. They spent a crapload for one congressional seat. If they won, it wouldn’t demoralize Repubs since the Dems outspent the Repubs by some large amount (between 3x and 7x as much–and I don’t care about the specific number) and the narrative will be that they bought the election. Meanwhile, one win, even in a largely Repub district isn’t going to energize the Dem base all _that_ much. So why waste so much money on a single, hard-to-achieve House seat rather than spreading it around in actual competitive seats? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/219 "2017-06-21T18:12:07Z")
[The Young Turks has a pretty good take on this.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTYpjU3MENc) I don’t always agree with TYT, but Democrats do need to run as progressives and not as Republicans with scruples. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/220 "2017-06-21T18:12:50Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > The spin is in saying that there was never any real chance that Ossoff was going to win and the Handel victory was completely expected. > > If you want an instance of the changed tone for one person, compare posts #69 & #151 of this thread. But beyond any one person, the tenor has changed. > > The notion that this was never anything more than a longshot hope is new spin. Are those posts really a good example? > [@asahi](#): > > I suspect that Handel will probably get just enough votes to win in a squeaker. It’ll come down to turnout, and when you factor in the historical and demographic advantages that a republican enjoys in this particular district, it’s hard to bet against it. > [@asahi](#): > > Yeah, Ossoff lost this race – I expected him to. But, he was highly competitive in a congressional race in a reliably republican district. I don’t see that wild a swing in spin there. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575.md?page=12)